Justify Versus the Tote in Preakness 143?

[Wandering Eyes]

Sure, the connections of seven other horses–a trio of also-rans from the GI Kentucky Derby and four new shooters–were willing to oppose ‘TDN Rising Star‘ Justify (Scat Daddy) in the 143rd running of the GI Preakness S. at Pimlico Race Course. But come 6:48 p.m. Eastern time late Saturday afternoon, the infield tote board will suggest that the 9 1/2-furlong test is strictly a one-horse affair.

So just how low will Justify go–pari-mutuelly speaking?

While Always Dreaming (Bodemeister) was off at 6-5 en route to an eighth-place effort behind Cloud Computing (Maclean’s Music) last year at Old Hilltop, the previous four Derby winners were each backed into long odds-on favoritism, though two of those ultimately proved to be money burners. Nyquist (Uncle Mo) was bet down to 7-10 in 2016, but Exaggerator (Curlin) took advantage of his superior wet-track form en route to a 3 1/2-length victory as the favorite weakened to third. Many would forget that future Triple Crown hero American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) returned a seemingly generous $3.80 in powering home through the off going to score by seven lengths in 2015, while at 1-2, California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) ranks as the most heavily backed Derby winner since Big Brown (Boundary) sailed home at 1-5 in 2008. Orb (Malibu Moon) was 70 cents on the dollar in 2013, but he never really truly reached contention and checked in a well-beaten fourth.

Excepting the ill-fated Barbaro a dozen years ago, other Derby winners rolled at odds-on in the Preakness over the last 3 1/2 decades include Fusaichi Pegasus (second to Red Bullet at 3-10 in 2000); Easy Goer (runner-up at 3-5 to Sunday Silence in the epic 1989 Preakness); Swale (seventh to Gate Dancer in 1984 at 4-5); and Linkage (second to Aloma’s Ruler as the 1-2 chalk in 1982).

Heavily favored though he will be, Justify is not likely to attract the same support as Count Fleet (1943), Citation (1948), Native Dancer (1953), Nashua (1955) or Secretariat (1973), each of whom won the Preakness at odds of 3-10 or less, and in the case of Count Fleet, 15 cents on the dollar when taking home the middle leg by eight lengths en route to that year’s Triple Crown.

His price will be too skinny for many to swallow Saturday afternoon, but barring a major upset, Justify should be able to continue his assault on the 2018 Triple Crown.

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