Freshman Sires of 2019: How They Fared

Wandering Eyes · March 1, 2020

It is fair to point out that Night Of Thunder’s first crop did not produce a real star of a 2-year-old, with none of them having reached RPR110. That said, as a son of Dubawi (Ire) out of a Galileo (Ire) mare, there must be a very strong chance that his progeny could prove even better as 3-year-olds.

The thought that Night Of Thunder’s progeny may progress well with time is supported by the fact that only 46.7% of his first crop got to the racecourse as 2-year-olds. This is only slightly above the average of all the first-season sires of 2019 and significantly lower than the majority of high achievers in the group, which suggests some level of immaturity running through the crop.

Whatever way one wishes to paint it, there is no escaping the reality that Night Of Thunder made an exceptional start with his first 2-year-old runners. Indeed, one suspects that it could well be a long time before the numbers he registered in this brand of analysis are bettered.

Darley were very conservative in increasing his fee from £15,000 to just €25,000 for his return to Kildangan this year. Reports suggest that he has been massively and understandably oversubscribed ever since that fee was announced, so while most won’t be able to join the party this year, it will be fascinating to watch how his progeny progress in 2020.

In most other seasons, the numbers put up by Gleneagles (Ire) (Coolmore) would have been sufficient to top the table. While there was clearly a level of expectation attached to him given he was the second-most expensive sire in this group and that his yearlings came out fourth-best in the analysis of the sales, he outperformed those expectations to flag himself as a very promising young sire. This thought is hammered home when one considers that him being a son of Galileo would strongly suggest that his progeny should progress well from two to three.

To further contextualise what Gleneagles achieved with his first runners, I sought to compare the performance of his first 2-year-olds to that of all the other notable sire sons of Galileo (Ire). It was fascinating to discover that of all the sons of Galileo that have gone to stud, only Frankel has had a better start with his first 2-year-olds. Gleneagles made a stronger start than the likes of Teofilo (Ire), New Approach (Ire) and Australia (GB), which puts him in a strong position to build on going forward.

Another fascinating pattern that emerges when assessing the performance of Gleneagles’s first crop is the role that Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore operation played in it. Of his 109 first-crop foals, Aidan O’Brien only trained six of them that got to the racecourse in 2019. In the table of his progeny arranged by peak RPR, those six horses occupied first, second, third, fourth, sixth and tenth. Four out of those six were bought at public auction. Only a very small number of stables in Ballydoyle are occupied by the offspring of unproven stallions every year, so the Coolmore team is entitled to be pleased with the job they did in selecting which progeny of Gleneagles to send there to give them the best chance to shine.

Coolmore has given Gleneagles a moderate increase in fee from €30,000 to €35,000 for 2020, which is still some way below his opening fee of €60,000. This appeals as being a fair fee given the abundant promise shown by his first 2-year-olds.

Of those that notably outperformed expectations, the surprise package of this group thus far has been Highclere Stud resident Cable Bay (Ire). Having stood his first season for just £6,500, his 68 juvenile runners registered a strong set of figures considering the relatively limited expectations attached to him based on his nomination fee and the modest sales results his first yearlings attracted. His percentage of RPR100+ horses is particularly impressive, though it perhaps should be noted that three of his five qualifiers maxed out at exactly RPR100 and another got to RPR101, thus meeting the criteria by the skin of their teeth. However, that shouldn’t take away from what was a very strong start from their sire.

In terms of the broader picture for Cable Bay, his first 2-year-olds were clearly a forward bunch, with 59.6% of his crop having made it to the track last year. This is the fourth-highest such percentage amongst this group. Any sire that comes out towards the top of this criteria always warrants particular attention in terms of how well their progeny progress as 3-year-olds, as it isn’t unusual for such above-average precocity to come at a cost of below-average progress as 3-year-olds. Thus, it will be worth watching how his progeny progress this year.

Highclere Stud increased Cable Bay’s fee from £6,500 to £15,000 for 2020 and such an increase is justified by the performance of his first 2-year-olds. How they fare as 3-year-olds will help shape how much further Cable Bay can rise as a sire.

Shadwell stallion Muhaarar (GB) was in incredibly high demand amongst breeders from the very beginning and the results that his first crop established at the yearling sales were quite frankly phenomenal. Such high expectations were always going to be hard to live up to, but the above figures suggest the results achieved by his first 2-year-old runners have been disappointing in comparison.

There are clearly plenty of people that are keeping the faith with him, as the average/median prices that his yearlings realised last year didn’t take anything like the dive that they might have been expected to.