mardigras Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 It's like all your ideas Thomass, you rely on massive assumptions. State of track, gear changes and what they will do. Rather than relying on known things and limiting assumptions to as little as possible. No matter how much information you receive, you will always be wanting more once you work out that the latest piece still leaves you no better off punting wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Thomass said: Oh yep So you don't agree, Punters should have known before the first, that the rail was off? Exactly as Rod says above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 Oh dear... And you wonder why the Kiwi punter has disappeared from the stands....cant even get some poor f'er holding your hand at the chippy stand... ...let alone GAMBLE on NZ racing...because that's what it is Meantime Arstralian Punters have the exact pen. Reading...change of tactic notifications et el... You probably don't adjust your bet if a neddy's just had a wind operation... ...or got caught in the very slow Whanganui rail on Saturday.. You and roddy bet by rote though don't you?? So you certainly wouldn't adjust your bet if historical PDF formlines shows at a glance that a neddy can't handle a HOLDING track... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 (edited) I don't understand what you mean 'bet by rote' unless that means assess the chance of a runner based on information available and then eliminating as much as possible any assumptions and then comparing that to price available. If that's what you mean, then yes, I 'bet by rote'. I've found that works better than betting by guesswork. Maybe you should try it since guesswork seems to be an issue for you. Edited June 7, 2018 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxie Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 I don't understand how knowing if there is a differential across the track can improve your chances unless the jockey on your horse knows. If he or she doesn't know where the 'best lane" is then it doesn't matter a diddly squat that the punter knows. In saying that I can't say I've seen 20 or so jocks walking the track before the first at any meeting I've attended. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 Pretty simple isn't it? You know the rails off...outside barriers are what you want... Drawing inside...such as Wanganui...death trap Publishing them..lazy Jockeys then know Kelly née Myers does the stick thing...NZTR employee Noel Harris does it... He told Jazz Fawcett the fast lane at Puke a month back... Post race interview..." I knew where the fast lane was and I used it" Perhaps you could get your own niche...watch what pro Jockeys walk the track then get on best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxie Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Thomass said: Pretty simple isn't it? You know the rails off...outside barriers are what you want... Drawing inside...such as Wanganui...death trap Publishing them..lazy Jockeys then know Kelly née Myers does the stick thing...NZTR employee Noel Harris does it... He told Jazz Fawcett the fast lane at Puke a month back... Post race interview..." I knew where the fast lane was and I used it" Perhaps you could get your own niche...watch what pro Jockeys walk the track then get on best Not I don't believe it is that simple. If you look at the barrier win statistics there is no significant variance between fast/dead and slow/heavy tracks. If you have a horse that jumps well and leads it is easy to dictate where on the track everyone races. So if the punter knows there is a "fast lane" how do they pick the horse that is going to get to it first? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 True in the case of PH who drew one and was able to get off the rail with its pace....and was 10 widths out round the home bend.. However Punters were sold a pup by the 'experts' when told the rail...and backing inside barriers and trail horses was just fine.. ...when it wasn't... Pitman and FORMPRO think they should be...Why take 30 readings around the course and then hide them from the public? Any information like this helps the punter... perceived or otherwise Surely it's up to them to then decide what to do with them? Yesterday the reading was downgraded retro to the first...on a fine day...wtf? Punters should have had those readings which would have shown an 'on the cusp' reading of Heavy..and those readings would have shown the rail was just fine...which it was Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxie Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 For a start what serious punter listens to Trackside "experts"? They like to have a punt themselves and invariably they tend to prove most days they aren't expert. As for publishing the "30 readings" how could they sensibly do that? Each reading would have to be associated with its track location. Would you prefer GPS latitude and longitude or a guess by the measurer? Now I presume to get exact location you'd want it down to degree seconds? How many decima places? Why not just post 4 figures - home straight average and variance, rest of track average and variance? As the stats show it doesn't seem to matter what barrier is drawn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 Yep anythings better than nothin! The Track Manager has to write 30 down anyway...easy to screenshot that and post it...Punters can do whatever they like with it...why hide it? Straight is the most important...at the moment every 100M theyre taken up the straight...just do that across the width It matters what barrier is drawn when the rails off...no doubt about that...or when the rail shows a better pen. Reading...on a leaders bias track especially Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 At which point will your request for more info end? No matter how much you get, it won't be enough to help your punting. What will be next? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, mardigras said: At which point will your request for more info end? No matter how much you get, it won't be enough to help your punting. What will be next? He'd probably simply like to know all the winners before the off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Blinkers on Thomass as he is known Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 8, 2018 Author Share Posted June 8, 2018 This is very basic stuff that Arstralian Punters get handed to them on a platter... ...our tracks are far worserer...worserer than a bog at the Bognor Regious track.. Change of tactics notes, exact pen. Readings, Vet operations... ...Any f'er who thinks Punters didn't need Wanganuis rail pen. Readings eats Monkfish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 I'm probably wasting my time trying to help you Thommo, but the fact is that when you punt you are basically competing with all the other punters out there. They all have the same information. Unless you somehow have access to info that most others don't, any additional info such as the stuff you keep going on about will also be available to all the competing punters so will give you no advantage when you assess a horse's chances against the available price. What part of this are you not getting? Since the pen readings you want are available in OZ, does that make your punting on Oz races more successful than on NZ races where they are not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 8, 2018 Author Share Posted June 8, 2018 (edited) Seriously curious you have no idea about punting here...only maidens last time you told us... Punters use this information for their various 'niches'... Some will find stuff uselful...others not Knowledege is power...the NZ punter is treated like a lonely mushroom...and it ain't magic Just heard the 'experts' on The Fart Call.. "Well Jason, is it going to be a leaders Track at 15M...or will it favour sweepers so far out...where's the best ground going to be?" ffs... If we're going down your root...you wouldn't waste time on publishing gear changes But we know you have absolutely no idea about the performance quotient of Blinkers...others do Edited June 8, 2018 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Ok Thomass, since you have knowledge about the leaders bias at Te Rapa now, Please tell us all who is going to lead and why in race 5 tomorrow. I have an idea who might down to about the nearest 3-4, but you tell us who it is please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 To help you out Thomass these are my 4. 4,2,3,8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Poor old Thomass, the Princess is getting her Friday night 4hr torture(treat) from him, she would rather be watching David Seymour on dancing with the stars than being trapped and bored shitless with Thomass talking about Kelvin Davis’s achievements, hang on there isn’t any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 48 minutes ago, Thomass said: But we know you have absolutely no idea about the performance quotient of Blinkers...others do This sentence sums up why I am successful at punting and Thomass isn't. Generic application of 'performance' metrics. It just doesn't get any funnier reading this stuff from him. A dartboard would be more useful to him. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Just now, mardigras said: This sentence sums up why I am successful at punting and Thomass isn't. And that is what makes the difference between winning punters generally. Generic stats are worthless. But Thomass loves them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 11 hours ago, Thomass said: If we're going down your root...you wouldn't waste time on publishing gear changes But we know you have absolutely no idea about the performance quotient of Blinkers...others do Quite right Thommo. I leave it up to the trainers to apply the gear that will help the horse run to its best in the same way I leave it to them to decide what work to give it on Tuesday morning and what to add to the feed on Friday night. You'd probably want that info as well I imagine. Is the quotient better for blinkers on, or blinkers off in maiden races ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Did they get to the races in a float or truck? How long before the races is also of importance. When was their last shoe change? I think you will find Thomass that those changed within the last 7 day esp in heavy going out perform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 48 minutes ago, barryb said: When was their last shoe change? I think you will find Thomass that those changed within the last 7 day esp in heavy going out perform. If you recheck your numbers barryb, I think you'll find it's more than 3 days but less than 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poisoned Dwarf Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 On 6/06/2018 at 2:43 PM, Thomass said: As I thought...you're CLUELESS...again Of course...you said there was "nothing wrong with the Eagle Farm track"...didnt you? If you think a Jockey...drawn one on the flat side...is going to pull back and over to the Grandstand side....when 6 other horses on his outer are dictating his every move... ...you have no idea...again The only thing you got correct is that Punters won't bet if they don't have the correct information... ...and early Whanganui bettors got sold a pup when told the fresh 6M would be the place to be..."probably all day"...and it wasn't from the get go... When a simple straight penetrometer reading across the width, would have told them something entirely different... ...or a Senior Jockey/Noel Harris track report...telling Punters where they think the fast lane will possibly be... Instead of a guessing game Life in the Fast Lane Eagles He was a hard-headed man he was brutally handsomeAnd she was terminally prettyShe held him up and he held her for ransomIn the heart of the cold, cold cityHe had a nasty reputation as a cruel dudeThey said he was ruthless said he was crudeThey had one thing in common: they were good in bedShe'd say, "Faster, faster. "The lights are turning red." Life in the fast lane Surely make you lose your mindLife in the fast lane Eager for action and hot for the gameThe coming attraction, the drop of a nameThey knew all the right people; They took all the right pillsThey threw outrageous parties; They paid heavenly billsThere were lines on the mirror, lines on her faceShe pretended not to notice she was caught up in the raceOut every… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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