TwinSpires.com Triple Crown Throwdown: SA Derby, Wood, Blue Grass

[Wandering Eyes]

Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN’s Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets –highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.

DeROSA: Last Week’s Results: What a weekend last week and what a weekend on tap! Mendelssohn and Audible both delivered strong performances in the U.A.E. & Florida Derbys, respectively—the type of performances that other years might earn them favoritism in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, but there is a race on Saturday likely to settle that: the Santa Anita Derby featuring Bolt d’Oro and Justify. DeROSA BANKROLL: $4180.

GI Santa Anita Derby – I’m siding with experience and Bolt d’Oro with the thought that if Justify beats me this time I’ll just try to beat him again in four weeks. But everything about my handicapping style can’t let me take a horse in his stakes debut at odds on against seasoned foes. Selection: #3 Bolt d’Oro (6-5).

GII Wood Memorial S. – In the Wood, I do like Enticed as the most likely top Derby candidate, but Old Time Revival is tough for me to dismiss at the price figuring to get a similar trip as last time and maybe this time the 1 1/8 miles helps him hold on if things are slower earlier. Selection: #4 Old Time Revival (6-1).

GII Blue Grass S. – Champion Good Magic figures to be too short against a deep Blue Grass that attracted Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Blended Citizen, who’s in search of points and a Derby berth. Both his El Camino and Jeff Ruby Steaks are competitive here, the question is if he’s competitive on dirt. At the price, I’ll pay to find out. Selection: #7 Blended Citizen (15-1).

SHERACK: Last Week’s Results: Another weekend, another second-place finish with a longshot (Hofburg completed the exacta at 8-1 in the GI Florida Derby). Running out of time, but still have a couple of more big swings left. SHERACK BANKROLL: $2270.

GI Santa Anita Derby – Every chance that the unbeaten and extremely talented Justify has the edge in this round, but will still side with Bolt d’Oro, who is the one that I want going forward. Selection: #3 Bolt d’Oro (6-5).

GII Wood Memorial S. – King Zachary was visually impressive enough in his two previous starts this season at Gulfstream to give him the nod here. The chestnut returned from a freshening with a huge third after getting checked sharply in the early going sprinting Feb. 24, then successfully stretched to two turns with a runaway maiden win after stalking a very slow pace Mar. 18. Pricey son of Curlin is bred to run all day and can certainly make some noise at a price (probably will be half of his morning-line quote) with another step forward in what looks like a rather weak renewal of the Wood. Selection: #7 King Zachary (20-1).

GII Blue Grass S. – Tiz Mischief’s form was solid enough at two-fell just a head short in a very live running of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. and also broke his maiden going two turns at Keeneland-to give him one more chance at a big number. He didn’t run awful when a distant third returning from the bench in the GII Holy Bull S. and he never had a fair chance attempting to close into glacial fractions in a merry-go-round renewal of the GII Tampa Bay Derby. He appears to be training well since and has never been higher than 5-1 in six prior career starts. Not impossible if he gets some pace up front in this big field. Selection: #9 Tiz Mischief (30-1).

DiDONATO: Last Week’s Results: Reride wasn’t winning the UAE Derby regardless, but he didn’t have the greatest trip and checked in third. Catholic Boy was a bit disappointing in the Florida Derby, but it sounds like he had an excuse. Still within striking distance of Ed, but we better get going. DiDONATO BANKROLL: $3380.

GI Santa Anita Derby – Part of me is hoping Bolt d’Oro has a tough trip or isn’t 100% cranked in here so I can bet him back at Churchill, but I’ve got to go with him again in this spot after getting a bit lucky to be put up in the San Felipe when both my opponents had McKinzie. Justify seems like a total monster and could certainly handle the class test, but the hype is slightly over-the-top for him to likely go favored over a more battle-tested multiple Grade I winner. Probably won’t be betting this one with real dollars, but it’ll be fun to watch. Selection: #3 Bolt d’Oro (6-5).

GII Wood Memorial S. – Enticed‘s last win is going to be good enough to take this a large percentage of the time, and there’s no real reason to expect him not to show up. An additional furlong should help him if anything, and he’s tractable enough to make his own trip. Selection: #5 Enticed (6-5).

GII Blue Grass S. – Before opening the past performances for this race I was already mentally committed to taking somebody ridiculous. I guess I felt the need to compensate for chalking out in the day’s other two preps, and this just feels like a good race to play for something weird to happen. I was torn between the two late-running Tapits, and ultimately landed on Zing Zang. I picked him in the Southwest, and didn’t think he ran terribly there while still a bit green. He was a mile back early in the Rebel, but was putting in a big move when he got completely stopped along the rail. He wasn’t winning, but it cost him a few spots for sure. The parallels with fellow Asmussen trainee Creator are obvious, so let’s hope he finishes Derby prep season the way that one did. Selection: #1 Zing Zang (30-1).

 

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