This Side Up: Euros to Dollars

[Wandering Eyes]

Well, we know that such Europeans as have been able to make the trip–another lockdown began in England on Thursday–won’t be in the slightest danger of catching anything on the dirt track.
If we can meanwhile break the shackles of the pandemic as well, maybe someone might feel sufficiently liberated finally to have another go next year. But at least the raiders should again be in the thick of things over on the grass. Now that the Breeders’ Cup returns to Kentucky, moreover, they will be expecting an especially congenial environment, from the surface to the climate.
Certainly they had a chastening couple of days at Santa Anita last year, when only Iridessa (Ruler Of The World) in the GI Filly and Mare Turf rescued a whitewash. True, it had not looked a vintage group; but even their previous visit to Keeneland, in 2015, for a long time renewed what has sometimes felt like a perennial reproof against complacency. The way Hit It A Bomb (War Front) pulled the opener out of the fire set a misleading tone, with the home team then holding out until the very last grass race the following day.

The duel that restored European self-esteem that year was contested by Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}), who had just won the Arc, and Found (Ire) (Galileo {GB}), who would win it the following year. So nobody should be under any illusions about the standards required, especially with the ongoing expansion of the American turf program.
That said, the Euros plainly know their metier and must be weighed by anyone handicapping the grass races. Here, then, are three that can run better than their likely odds. That is saying quite something, in the case of the first, but I think she should be closer to even money.

MAGICAL (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) GI Longines BC Turf) 5-2
No mystery about Magical on tour: she showed her aptitude for the demands of this race when giving Enable (GB) (Nathaniel {Ire}) herself a scare at Churchill in 2018. But while the big discrepancy in transatlantic odds concerns Tarnawa (Ire) (Shamardal), who is challenging for favoritism in their homeland, my feeling is that even a respectful morning line understates Magical’s prospects. She sets a formidable standard and I’d be pretty amazed if she were beaten.

While unable to win for a third year running on Qipco British Champions’ Day, she only got going late behind two that exult in muddy conditions. She had previously exchanged verdicts with the top-class Ghaiyyath (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), again over 10 furlongs, and in terms of racing rhythm looks increasingly hungry for a return to this distance for only the third time in 15 starts since her run at Churchill. It can only help, moreover, that the scheduling of the Ascot fixture was this year slightly less parochial than usual, permitting her a third week to recover. Not that she particularly needs it: her battle with Enable in Louisville was her third start in three countries in 27 days.

In contrast Tarnawa (Ire) (Shamardal) arrives after a very light season, having only resumed in August. In that time she has plainly reached a new peak, without yet registering the kind of numbers routinely posted by Magical. While the latter’s sophomore stablemate Mogul (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) has now cracked that long-expected Group 1 success (3,400,000gns yearling; stable jockey’s choice at Epsom), the fact is that the only runner to have touched Magical’s regular level even once is Lord North (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), whose solution to a poor run the other day is to try a new trip.
A demanding pace might conjure a surprising finish from German filly Donjah (Ger) (Teofilo {Ire}) at monster odds. Overall, however, Magical looks a very secure knot to keep those Pick Six lines under control.

CADILLAC (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}) GI BC Juvenile Turf (presented by Coolmore America) 6-1
As his name suggests, this guy should get all the traction he needs on an American circuit. Because while even the bare form of two reverses in soft going would give him every chance here, Cadillac has been most impressive on both starts on sounder terrain.

On debut he burst no fewer than nine lengths clear of Ebeko (Ire) (Awtaad {Ire}), who has since done sufficiently well for new owners in California to follow him here for a rematch. Having won so easily, Cadillac was still green when turned over at odds-on next time, but the half-length winner went on to show his comfort in the softer ground that day when recently winning a Group 1 in similar conditions.

Restored to better conditions, Cadillac quickened clear of another subsequent Group 1 winner in Van Gogh (American Pharoah), and was well fancied when lining up for the premier juvenile prize in Europe, the G1 Darley Dewhurst S. Unfortunately the going was against him and, though he travelled smoothly through the race, he did not really pick up under pressure and was beaten a little over four lengths into fifth.

His nimble action and build together suggest that he will be well suited by the demands of this race, and he represents a trainer who has made an extraordinary impact since adapting her skills from jump racing to equal effect on the Flat.

Ballydoyle, predictably, has an aristocratic contender in Battleground (War Front), the first foal of Found, but as it stands his form has not worked out anything like as well as that of Cadillac.

ONE MASTER (GB) (Fastnet Rock {Ire}) (GI Fanduel BC Mile presented by PDJF) 15-1
What a mare! Last month she won the G1 Prix de la Foret for the third year running, an unprecedented achievement sealed by respective margins of a short head, half a length and a neck. That’s a measure of the white-knuckle element associated with her turn of foot, which has proved ideally suited to seven furlongs in European conditions but took her into a closing fifth, beaten just a length, in the 2018 running of this race at Churchill. She was caught on the inside that day, a disadvantage compounded by poaching along the rail.

Dropping to six against specialist sprinters last time, she hit her stride just too late and went down by just half a length, but proved that she remains in great heart for a trainer who has supervised her career with characteristic mastery. This will be her final start before breeders Lael Stable ask her to extend a family that has already served Roy and Gretchen Jackson so well, and she looks overpriced to go out in style.

The hectic nature of this race looks ideal for a mare who quickened out of trouble on fast ground round Goodwood in the summer. That is one of the sharpest tracks in Britain and, while One Master is never the most relaxing “watch”, she will be ridden with confidence by her artistic French jockey.

The raiders are led by a couple who started their respective campaigns by winning Classics at this distance but have since endured a few frustrations. Kameko (Kitten’s Joy) looked very unlucky not to finish ahead of Siskin (First Defence) when they met at Goodwood in the summer, and returned to this trip to put in much the more encouraging rehearsal of the pair.

Of the others, it’s just conceivable that Lope Y Fernandez (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}) might respond to this very different puzzle at huge odds, but with a strong home defense this looks a typical Mile crapshoot. I’m confident that will draw out the best in One Master; and her best would make her odds way too big.

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