Smith: We Haven’t Seen the Best of Justify Yet

[Wandering Eyes]

On their way to Churchill Downs for last Saturday’s card, which included an appearance by Ax Man (Misremembered) in GIII Matt Winn, jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert had time alone to analyze the Triple Crown campaign Justify (Scat Daddy) just completed. For both, it started to sink in. Six races, 111 days, three Classic races in five weeks and accomplishing something that only 13 horses in history have done.

If he were able to do all that under those circumstances, what can he do when Baffert has time to train him the way he wants, without the pressures he faced rushing the horse into the GI Kentucky Derby just 76 days after he made his first start? When Justify returns to the races, will we see an even better horse?

“Without a doubt,” Smith said. “We were just talking about that on the flight over to Louisville. Bob said, ‘You don’t understand what I was up against. There was this and that, the heel problem after the Derby. He already wants to come back to the track, but now we can plan for his races, train for his races. Do it the way we want to do it.’ I certainly don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet.”

Even Smith was skeptical that Baffert and Justify could pull this off.

“I thought it was going to be a lot to ask,” he said. “Six races in 111 days. Not just races, those were the best horses in the country he was running against. I thought it would be very difficult for him. But as each race was coming along, I could see he wasn’t losing weight, his energy level was still there. I thought he looked great in the Belmont. He was warming up just brilliantly. This guy, he breathes different air.”

When asked which of his three Triple Crown races was the most impressive, Smith leaned towards the Derby.

“I think it was the Kentucky Derby because those were the fastest fractions and he actually set them along with the Dale Romans horse, Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford). There have been faster fractions, I believe, in the Derby, but none of those horses went on to win. He set those fractions and won. Then look at the Preakness. After he had run that hard and that fast in the Derby, his fourth lifetime start, and then to run the race he did in the Preakness is very impressive. Going into the Belmont, I felt all along that would be his favorite racetrack with those big turns. He is a strong, powerful horse and I thought he’d get over that track very well. When he came back after the Belmont, he wasn’t blowing as hard as he was after the Preakness or the Derby. He handled the Belmont pretty impressively as well, so it’s hard to say which race was the best. They were all impressive.”

Smith’s rides at Churchill Saturday were his first since the Belmont. In between, he made a couple of television appearances, including on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon. He appeared on the show with two players from the Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals, Alexander Ovechkin and Braden Holtby. The two players, Smith and Fallon drank from the Stanley Cup. What was in there?

“I think it was beer,” Smith said. “It was very flat. I just took a little sip. I’ve heard some stories about that cup. I didn’t want to put my mouth on it. I was so happy they had straws.”

So, Nobody’s Perfect

Just when you thought Smith and Baffert could do no wrong, they came home empty after their trip to Churchill. Ax Man had looked outstanding winning the Sir Barton S. at Pimlico and seemed ready to fill the void in whatever big 3-year-old stakes Justify did not run in. Instead, after a slow start, he finished a well-beaten third, 12 3/4 lengths behind the winner, King Zachary (Curlin). Off of that race, it’s hard to imagine him being pointed for a race like the GI betfair.com Haskell Invitational, which had seemed like a logical next spot.

Smith was 0-for-3 on the card. Baffert was 0-for-2 as his Finess Bere (Fr) (Pedro the Great) was sixth in the GIII Regret S.

Heat Gets to Irish War Cry Again

As the second choice in the wagering, Irish War Cry (Curlin) was eased in Churchill’s GI Stephen Foster H., but trainer Graham Motion wasn’t exactly surprised. The horse has been among the most inconsistent top horses in the sport in recent times and Motion had finally figured out why. The horse suffers from the thumps, irregular spasming of the diaphragm, usually caused by dehydration due to fluid loss and related abnormal electrolyte levels.

The condition is much more of a problem when the weather is hot and that was the reason why Irish War Cry also ran a dismal race in the GII Gulfstream Park Hardacre Mile S. After that, he returned on a rainy, chilly day at Pimlico and won the GIII Pimlico Special S. by 4 1/2 lengths. Motion picked the Stephen Foster because it was run at night and hoped that would mean cooler conditions. Instead, it was a brutally hot day and night in Louisville.

“It was a continuation of the problem we’ve been having with him,” Motion said. “Hindsight is 20-20, but I wish I hadn’t run him in that heat. He just can’t handle it. I will not run him on a day like that again. He cannot cope with it. It was a Grade I and I thought it was our best shot to win a Grade I with him, but now I know where we stand and I won’t try that again.”

It’s a frustrating situation for Motion. He trains a talented horse, but is at a severe disadvantage in the majority of big races because most are run on hot days. He said he will not run him again until the fall, perhaps in a race like the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he hopes he can get temperatures in the 50s or 60s. If all goes will in his next start, he will consider the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Poland’s Justify

One of the things that has always made Team Valor International successful is that they are able to find good horses anywhere. You may not have even known that there was racing in Poland, but Team Valor CEO Barry Irwin obviously does. Irwin announced over the weekend that he may run Va Bank (Ire) (Archipenko) in the GI Arlington Million. The horse won his first 12 starts, including the 2015 Polish Triple Crown. He’s lost his last four and is currently racing in Germany.

“He’s going to run July 5 at Hamburg in a Group 3 and if he runs well in that, he’ll go to the Million,” Irwin said. “He’s the best horse they’ve ever had in Poland. He beat a really good horse named Potemkin who won a Group II at Longchamp. If he gets through his next race, he’ll come to the Million with a chance to do something. Andreas Wohler won the Melbourne Cup; he’s trained some terrific horses.”

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