The Week in Review: Three-for-Three Colt Bounds to Top of Division…

[Wandering Eyes]

So an undefeated colt roared to an impressive open-length victory in a difficult graded stakes test over the weekend, running his ‘TDN Rising Star’ record to three-for-three and establishing a commandeering spot atop the divisional totem pole.

You know who I’m talking about, right?

Not so fast before you leap to the obvious horse. This week only, that’s a multiple choice question with three possible correct answers.

Despite the headline-snaring dismantling of the GI Santa Anita Derby orchestrated by new GI Kentucky Derby favorite Justify (Scat Daddy) on Saturday, he’s not the only up-and-coming ‘Rising Star’ who fits that description.

Thanks to a bevy of solid Triple Crown prep undercard action from coast to coast, racing enthusiasts were also treated to satisfying thrashings by Army Mule (Friesan Fire) in the GI Carter H. and Analyze It (Point of Entry) in the GIII Transylvania S. at Keeneland.

Their dominant victories both represented stylish unveilings off seasonal layoffs that resonated with raw power and a left a hint that each has plenty left in reserve as the lucrative spring stakes schedule unfolds.

Like Justify, each of those colts is now three-for-three and has firmly wrested control of his respective division: Army Mule now rates as the come-and-get-me kingpin of the older male middle-distance tier, while Analyze It has a stronghold as far as sophomore turfers are concerned.

And when you attempt to assess each colt’s prowess in terms of cumulative margins of victory, the numbers are even more eye-opening: Army Mule has won his three races by a combined 22 1/4 lengths; Justify by 18 3/4; Analyze It by 15 3/4.

Justify got plenty of well-deserved ink over the weekend (here and here), and I’ll scrutinize his performance further in the forthcoming TDN Derby Top 20 rankings published Monday afternoon. So let’s instead focus on Army Mule and Analyze It, who in almost any other week would have been the headline-grabbers themselves.

4-year-old Army Mule was attempting to leap the chasm from an entry-level Gulfstream Park allowance victory to Grade I company off a 66-day layoff on Saturday at Aqueduct, but the bettors had no problem installing the Todd Pletcher trainee as the 2-1 second favorite in the 11-horse field. He broke midpack and settled comfortably toward the inside, then made incremental, almost metronomic, progress while whittling down the pacemakers’ margins behind lively splits of :22.09 and :44.93.

Five-sixteenths out, the in-hand Army Mule willingly rated on hold for a brief beat as jockey Joe Bravo picked their path, and once committed to an inside bid along the fence the colt charged through with gusto and kicked on enthusiastically when prompted for another gear. Army Mule was not asked for a full extension in the run to the wire despite the apparent pouring-it-on gap back to favorite Awesome Slew (Awesome Again) and the rest of the field, and his 1:20.94 clocking for seven furlongs (.90 off Artax’s track record set in the 1999 version of the Carter H.) translated to a lofty 114 Beyer Speed Figure.

Pletcher mentioned the one-turn mile Grade I Metropolitan H. on the Belmont Stakes Day undercard as a likely next race for Army Mule, who broke his maiden at Belmont Park last Apr. 30.

Analyze It, too, was also a Belmont Park maiden-breaker last year. He debuted on the turf as a juvenile Oct. 28 when let go at an amazing 13-1 in the betting for his 6 1/4-length sizzler of a wire job, and his mile score signaled something special because the clocking came back nearly a full second faster than the running of the Awad S. for slightly more seasoned 2-year-old males five races later on that card.

His debut came too late in the season to attempt the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but trainer Chad Brown shipped Analyze It to Del Mar for the Nov. 26 GIII Cecil B. DeMille S., where he got pounded to 1-2 favoritism and completely dominated a group of 10 other turf milers. The robustness of that bunch was an open question at the time because the better juvenile turfers had all competed in the Breeders’ Cup three weeks previously, so Analyze It entered a winter freshening without anyone knowing where he really stood against the best in the American grass division for his age group.

Friday’s Transylvania at Keeneland went a long way to asserting where Analyze It now rates in the pecking order. The outside post in a field of 11 going 1 1/16 miles for the first time? No problem. The yielding course condition? Again, not an issue. Concerns that Analyze It wouldn’t be able to attain his preferred spot on the lead were also brushed aside when the colt broke with interest but reacted responsively to being asked to rate by jockey Jose Ortiz.

And yes, Analyze It (and every other horse in the race) did have the benefit of a 117-1, soon-to-fade-to-last pacemaker gapping out by his lonesome on the lead to set the race up for a closing kick. But the internal fractions were hardly fast (1:15.21 for six furlongs), and Analyze It lost a decent amount of ground while three wide on both turns before relishing being roused and tourquing into an impressive overdrive that whet the appetite for the type of determined run he might produce in a subsequent start when he’s more tightly wound and the distances stretch longer.

Brown has the July 7 GI Belmont Derby Invitational at 10 furlongs sized up as the long-range target for Analyze It.

 

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