Future Book for a Contentious Bunch

[Wandering Eyes]

Now that the Supremes have decided you can basically bet on anything, we thought we’d approach what may be the most contentious bunch of young stallions we have seen in quite some time as a handicapping event. We are talking, of course, of the freshmen sires of 2018 whose first offspring have just completed their midterms with the conclusion of the OBS June Sale June 15.

Our task is to lay the odds on how the sires of these youngsters are likely to compete over the long term. We have eschewed the pedigree-only approach, but rather have granted that each of these stallions qualify in some respects on that score. Instead, we have brought to bear some biomechanical and digital data to assist us in our prognostications–and then have split them into three “races” with what we would deem an unbiased Future Book.

There are three criteria we used for this bunch:

1) There are 17 stallions in this bunch, 14 of which stand in Kentucky and three in Florida. The Florida sires were included because they scored as well or better than most of the stallions from the Bluegrass. All 17 had a minimum of 15 offspring which breezed (not just entered) in the six major 2-year-old sales: Fasig-Tipton in Florida and Maryland, OBS March, April, and June, and Barretts April.

2) The major data set used detailed how their offspring compared as individuals to all the other 2-year-olds which breezed. The components of this data are included in DataTrack’s BreezeFigs service which is based on breeze time, stride length, and efficiency of angulation. Since 2006, this product has been utilized at sales by buyers and sellers, as well as being offered every day as a handicapping tool at Daily Racing Form‘s website.

3) We also took into consideration the results of our stallion projection tests, which were compiled in 2015 when these horses went to stud. These profiles are based on biomechanical measurements and the probabilities of these stallions siring race efficient foals from books of biomechanically balanced mares. We also took into consideration the biomechanical profiles of more than 150 of their offspring taken at the 2018 sales and the 2017 yearling sales.

The 17 stallions are separated into three groups, two based on current stud fees in Kentucky ($10,000 is the dividing line), and the third for the Florida stallions. They are listed below in Future Book order with a comment or two along the way.

Group 1 (Stud fee = $10,000 and above, Kentucky)
5-to-2 Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile)
5-to-2 Strong Mandate (Tiznow)
6-to-1 Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song)
6-to-1 Verrazano (More Than Ready)
8-to-1 Fed Biz (Giant’s Causeway)
10-to-1 Goldencents (Into Mischief)
10-to-1 Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno)
10-to-1 Noble Mission (GB) (Galileo-Ire)

Comment: Cairo Prince and Strong Mandate are virtually tied in all biomechanical data sets, and their offspring were strong on breeze and stride data. Neither is likely to get a lot of precocity, but by autumn they should have strong and versatile records. Verrazano and Will Take Charge are also virtually tied on breeze and stride length data, but Verrazano may be able to come closer to his sire’s versatility than Will Take Charge versus his sire. Fed Biz’s offspring are likely to come out early, emulate his record as a miler–and they resembled him more closely than those by all other sires in this crop–a good thing. Goldencents may get a lot of early runners, Mucho Macho Man’s not likely to hit stride until late autumn, and the Noble Mission bunch are probably going to need the turf to show their best.

Group 2 (Stud fee = below $10,000, Kentucky)
9-to-5 Flashback (Tapit)
4-to-1 Shakin It Up (Midnight Lute)
6-to-1 Cross Traffic (Unbridled’s Song)
10-to-1 Can the Man (Into Mischief)
10-to-1 Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron)
12-to-1 Revolutionary (War Pass)

Comment: Flashback’s sire profile is strong-however, they didn’t excite as yearlings. They woke up this year with breeze and stride data that would have placed him tied at the top of Group I. Shakin It Up was another who came out of the woodwork with consistent performers and most looked like him, which is good. Can the Man and Itsmyluckyday have strong sire profiles, and their 2-year-olds were basically even across the board but may need some time. Revolutionary had only 15 that breezed at the sales and they did fairly well, but they may take some time to come around.

Group 3 (Florida)
6-to-5 Handsome Mike (Scat Daddy)
5-to-2 He’s Had Enough (Tapit)
6-to-1 Drill (Lawyer Ron)

Comment: Handsome Mike has a very good sire profile and his 2-year-olds were fast and had solid breeze and stride stats-he isn’t his sire, but he looks mighty tempting. He’s Had Enough impressed enough to give this sire a chance for a couple of decent performers at two. Drill was a major surprise and, as one of two sons of Lawyer Ron in our computations, could continue the startling success of his sire in the Sunshine State, and perhaps beyond.

Place your bets!

Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached at bbfq@earthlink.net.

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