2021 Cox Plate runner-by-runner preview & betting tips

[Wandering Eyes]

What	2021 Cox Plate
Where	Moonee Valley Racecourse – 1 McPherson St, Moonee Ponds VIC 3039
When	Saturday, October 23, 2021 | 5:10pm AEDT | Race 9
Prizemoney	$5,000,000
Distance	2040m
Status	Group 1
Race Conditions	Weight For Age | Three-Year-Olds & Upwards
2020 Winner	Sir Dragonet (6) | Jockey: Glen Boss (59kg) | Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
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The Group 1 Cox Plate is one of the biggest races on the Australian Group 1 calendar, and HorseBetting’s Victorian form analyst presents his runner-by-runner preview, top selections and $100 betting strategy for the $5 million race. Despite a shock loss in the Caulfield Stakes, Zaaki is a $2.80 favourite for the 2040m weight-for-age feature, whilst three-year-old Anamoe is a $4.80 second-elect following his win in the Caulfield Guineas. Verry Elleegant and Gold Trip are the other runners in single figures with online bookmakers.

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Zaaki

T: Annabel Neasham

J: James McDonald

1. Zaaki (6)

7yo G | T: Annabel Neasham | J: James McDonald (59kg)

The 2021 Cox Plate has long been the grand final for the Annabel Neasham-trained Zaaki, and ever since his Doomben Cup demolition in the winter, he has been marked as the one to beat. However, he comes to the race on the back of a shock defeat in the Caulfield Stakes; it was a muddily run tempo and he simply never settled in the running. He gets an all-important gear change with James McDonald hopping back on board, and the star jockey will make sure Zaaki is within striking range at the 600m. If the Zaaki we saw prior to the Caulfield Stakes shows up at Moonee Valley, he blows the field away. But if Probabeel and Nonconformist can bring him undone, who is to say a star-studded Cox Plate field cannot do the same?

Dalasan

T: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas

J: Daniel Moor

2. Dalasan (3)

5yo H | T: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas | J: Daniel Moor (59kg)

Dalasan from the Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas yard is as honest as the day is long. He was nailed late by Private Eye and Aramayo in the Epsom Handicap and has a narrow defeat to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes earlier in the year. His superior Group 1 form comes when racing the ‘Sydney way’ and on that basis alone, Dalasan is one we are happy to watch go around.

Gold Trip

T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

J: Damien Oliver

3. Gold Trip (2)

5yo H | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Damien Oliver (59kg)

Despite winning just once from 10 career starts, the now Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Gold Trip has long been considered a genuine Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup chance. He finished fourth in the 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp over 2400m, and the theory is, he may struggle to win at 2040m at his first start in Australia. He has Damien Oliver on board but will need to settle closer to last and give the likes of Zaaki and Verry Elleegant a decent head start. With 59kg on his back, it is hard to see how he doesn’t start as a double-figure chance.

Callsign Mav

T: John Bary

J: Luke Nolen

4. Callsign Mav (5)

5yo G | T: John Bary | J: Luke Nolen (59kg)

The John Bary-trained Callsign Mav comes to The Valley on the back of multiple Group 1 wins in New Zealand, but even with that type of form, it is hard to see how he will stack up against the likes of Zaaki, Anamoe, Probabeel and Mo’unga. He looks to be the natural leader in the race, and considering he is preferred over 1400m-1600m, this looks to be a bridge too far.

Mo’unga

T: Annabel Neasham

J: Hugh Bowman

5. Mo’unga (4)

4yo H | T: Annabel Neasham | J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg)

The one who looks to be over the odds in the 2021 Cox Plate is the second of Annabel Neasham’s runners, Mo’unga. He beat Verry Elleegant to claim the Winx Stakes three runs back, before running to within 0.3 lengths of Incentivise in the Makybe Diva Stakes at his next go. It was a hard watch in the Epsom Handicap last time out when heavily checked as he was building momentum, so with even luck he could be the one flashing home late. He gets an almighty boost with Hugh Bowman hopping on board, and we all know that Hughie knows a thing or two about winning Cox Plates. Mo’unga is the one we want to be with at an each-way price.

Verry Elleegant

T: Chris Waller

J: Damian Lane

6. Verry Elleegant (9)

6yo M | T: Chris Waller | J: Damian Lane (57kg)

The Chris Waller-trained Verry Elleegant is in this right up to her neck, especially with heavy rain forecast the night before the race. The Cox Plate has been this year’s grand final since claiming the 2020 Caulfield Cup, and the six-year-old mare has been billed as the only real competitor to Zaaki in the race. She was well below her best in the Turnbull Stakes, but if Verry Elleegant brings something like her top form to The Valley, she could get her crowning moment on Saturday.

Probabeel

T: Jamie Richards

J: Brett Prebble

7. Probabeel (7)

5yo M | T: Jamie Richards | J: Brett Prebble (57.5kg)

Despite putting close to two lengths on Zaaki in the Caulfield Stakes, Probabeel has been dealt a similar hand to what she had in last year’s Cox Plate. She is still a maiden on rain-affected going from 10 starts, so when the rain comes, expect her $14 quote to double. Unfortunately for Probabeel fans, we may need to wait until the Empire Rose Stakes to see the star Kiwi again, with connections likely to scratch her here.

State Of Rest

T: Joseph O’Brien

J: John Allen

8. State Of Rest (8)

4yo C | T: Joseph O’Brien | J: John Allen (56.5kg)

Like Gold Trip, Joseph O’Brien-trained State Of Rest brings a sense of the unknown to the Cox Plate field. He won a Group 1 at his last start in the US, but it is hard to see how that form will line up here against the likes of Verry Elleegant and Zaaki. He may be an $11 chance to win this race, but we are willing to watch the colt go around.

Anamoe

T: James Cummings

J: Craig Williams

9. Anamoe (10)

3yo C | T: James Cummings | J: Craig Williams (49.5kg)

In what may have been a shock to many six months ago, our tip for the 2021 Cox Plate is the James Cummings-trained Anamoe. The Caulfield Guineas winner from a fortnight ago looks perfectly placed to claim arguably the biggest race in Australia outside of the Melbourne Cup. Despite Damien Oliver not being able to get down to the 49.5kg, the colt doesn’t lose much with the booking of Craig Williams. He gets a 9.5kg weight advantage over Zaaki and, despite drawing barrier 10, looks to be a genuine chance of adding his name to the Cox Plate honour roll. We expect the three-year-old to be in the final pairing upon settling, but if Willow can have him moving at the 600m mark, he should prove too hard to hold out.

Captivant

T: Peter & Paul Snowden

J: Dean Yendall

10. Captivant (1)

3yo C | T: Peter & Paul Snowden | J: Dean Yendall (49.5kg)

Captivant managed to finish just a half-length off Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas, but it was the latter who was going home the better. However, he is also going around with just 49.5kg on his back, and you can be sure Peter & Paul Snowden will have him ready for what is his toughest assignment to date. He draws to get a gun run in the race from the pole, but with plenty of these already proven at weight-for-age level, this may be a bridge too far for Captivant.

2021 Cox Plate betting tips

Widely regarded as “the best two minutes in sport”, the Cox Plate is a race every jockey, trainer and owner wants to win. Just a fortnight after his win the Caulfield Guineas, we anticipate Godolphin’s Anamoe can become the first three-year-old since Shamus Award in 2013 to claim Australia’s best weight-for-age race. He gets a 9.5kg weight advantage over Zaaki and considerable weight relief over the remainder of his main rivals, and with only 49.5kg on his back and a well-timed steer by Craig Williams, he will take some beating. The one who looks to be over the odds is Mo’unga, who two starts back finished within a half-length of Incentivise in the Makybe Diva Stakes. That form obviously stacks up here.

Cox Plate $100 betting strategy
$70 win	Anamoe
$15 each way	Mo’unga

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