Daily Mail: Greatness is fast approaching

[Wandering Eyes]

One of the best meetings of the year is being staged at Sandown Park tonight with the fields for two Group 1 races to be determined.

G1 champions Tommy Shelby, Qwara Bale and Aston Rupee, plus G2 winner Koblenz, headline the eight heats of the G1 TAB Melbourne Cup.

G1 winners Stanley Road, Knicks Bale and Gypsy Wyong, along with G3 winner Mepunga Ruby, contest the four heats of the G1 Bold Trease.

Dale Code’s Predicted Market Firmer
BOOM OUT
TAB fixed odds at 9am: $2.40 Win
Warragul Race 10 Box 8 10:04pm
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/721705534/race/10

Today’s Racing

Healesville: 10:57am start
Form     Tips     Key stats

Bendigo: 2:37pm start
Form     Tips     Key stats

Sandown Park: 6:59pm start
Form     Tips     Key stats

Warragul: 7:02pm start
Form     Tips     Key stats

Today’s Drawcards

KOBLENZ

Trainer: David Geall
Sandown Park Race 5
Box 2 515m 8:19pm

Claim to fame:
– 1st Group 2 Cranbourne Cup
– Won 24 from 37

TAB fixed odds: $1.40

The Watchdog says: Yes

TOMMY SHELBY

Trainer: Steve Whiters
Sandown Park Race 6
Box 8 515m 8:38pm

Claim to fame:
– Three-time Group 1 winner
– Won 31 from 47

TAB fixed odds: $2.50

The Watchdog says: No

ASTON RUPEE

Trainer: Glenn Rounds
Sandown Park Race 8
Box 3 515m 9:19pm 

Claim to fame:
– 1st Group 1 Topgun
– 28.79 TR at Sandown Park

TAB fixed odds: $1.55

The Watchdog says: No

THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT
Friday 19 November

$2 Multi

First : Win – ULTIMATE AVENGER
Bendigo Race 6 Box 3 500m 4:22pm
TAB fixed odds: $4 Win
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539199/race/6

Second : Win – ORIENTAL AMBER
Bendigo Race 9 Box 6 425m 5:22pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.80 Win
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539199/race/9

Third : Place – LOVE HEART
Bendigo Race 12 Box 1 425m 6:22pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.30 Place
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539199/race/12

The Watchdog says : ULTIMATE AVENGER (3) runs into a few good ones, but he is near faultless early, and he should be able to boot away mid race. With the ability to run 27.70sec or faster, they will have a hard time reeling him in. ORIENTAL AMBER (6) is all class and with a clean getaway she should be able to light them up soon after box rise. LOVE HEART (1) has the good draw, and she is armed with terrific mid-race pace, so with an unimpeded run, she should hit the scoreboard.

Multi price: $9.36

$2 Win – WHODAT DIVA     Lucky Longshot
Sandown Park Race 4 Box 5 715m 7:57pm
TAB fixed odds: $6 Win
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539252/race/4

The Watchdog says : I think she could be the surprise packet of the Bold Trease series. She was a top 41.83sec winner here two runs back and she followed that up with a terrific performance last week when a desperately unlucky third behind KNICKS BALE. She is going to need a few things to go her way early but if she can get a clear crack at them mid race, she should make her presence felt.

$1 Trifecta – 2 / 1 / 3,6 (50%)

Must Watch Race

TAB Melbourne Cup Heat 1

Sandown Park Race 5
515m 8:19pm

The Watchdog says : KOBLENZ (2) really should be leading throughout and if IMMUNITY (1) does everything right at box rise, she will fill the quinella spot behind KOBLENZ. KING OF CALYPSO (3) and JEPARA (6) are the obvious choices for third.

‘Must Watch Race’ Preview :
The whole card is a must watch, however I think this heat may feature the eventual Melbourne Cup winner KOBLENZ (2). With 24 wins from 37 starts (65 percent), this bold front running star continues to thrill fans and a clean getaway will see him one win away from capturing his first Group 1. His biggest roadblock appears to be the explosive IMMUNITY (1). She has been sparingly raced in recent months and hasn’t experienced a lot of luck, however from the good draw, a forward showing is expected. Strap yourself in for the best night of racing on the calendar.

Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539252/race/5

The Watchdog’s selections: 2 – 1 – 3 – 6

$2 Win – FERNANDO MICK
Sandown Park Race 9 Box 4 515m 9:38pm
TAB fixed odds: $6 Win
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539252/race/9

The Watchdog says : Looking at the price, It appears everyone has forgotten about his scorching 29.62sec Cranbourne Cup heat win. He exits the same draw tonight and with a very slow beginner on his outside, he should be able to balance up quickly and head into the first turn in the top two. He is blessed with an amazing turn of speed, so he should have too much dash for ENVY TO BURN (1) as they head into the back straight and they will have to go sub 29.20sec to reel him in.

$3 Win – LALA KIWI
Sandown Park Race 12 Box 1 515m 10:42pm
TAB fixed odds: $3 Win
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539252/race/12

The Watchdog says : The more I look at this race, the more confident I am in her chances. She really has gone to another level in recent months and from the good draw there should be no excuses. REBELLIOUS (8) obviously has more natural talent, however in three of his four Sandown Park runs, he has looked very unbalanced through the first turn. If they head into the first bend together, she may be able to pinch a two-length break as he tries to rebalance, and that could be the difference.

RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS

Thursday 18 November: $16 (+60%)
Wednesday 17 November: $0 (-100%)
Tuesday 16 November: $6.30 (-37%)
Monday 15 November: $29.45 (+195%)
Sunday 14 November: $22.74 (+127%)
Saturday 13 November: $9.20 (-8%)
Friday 12 November: $4 (-60%)

Past 7 days: $87.69 for $70 invested (+25%)
Past 14 days: $185.28 for $140 invested (+32%)
Past 28 days: $371.67 for $280 invested (+33%)

MONTH x MONTH RECORD

October 2021: $311.40 for $310 (Even)
September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-26%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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