Misty Breeze-Up Day Ahead of Goffs UK

[Wandering Eyes]

For once, it looked as though even horsemen of the old school might actually envy all that expensive timing kit. As they arrived yesterday morning, mist was still sitting so heavily on Town Moor that it otherwise promised to be impossible to get a proper reading on the young horses going through their paces on the eve of the Goffs UK Breeze-Up Sale. A couple of hundred years ago, no doubt, horsemen of more enterprise than probity doubtless made maximum use of such conditions on this historic turf. But the whole point of the under-tack show is that it affords no hiding place.

In the event, the mist began to lift just as the breezing got underway. From time to time, in fact, a watery sun even peered through to illuminate proceedings–at least to the extent that conditions underfoot allowed. Albeit the going appeared somewhat less challenging than at Ascot last week, those unfortunate enough to get a late slot had to pick their way across an increasingly poached surface. By all accounts, the times favoured those who opted to steer right, but plenty of these young horses were taking a deep breath to switch leads, while one or two took a half-stumble.

No doubt all that will be taken into account by the agents poring over those precious timesheets. It is a paradox of the modern breeze-ups that you get more wiseguys trying to work an angle than in any other type of sale–when the defining virtue of the format, in the judgement of the traditionalist, is that its key differentials are staring you in the face.

But that’s all fine, too. They can figure out who was right, and who was wrong, when their purchases actually pitch up on the track. Only then can we know the real value of those indices that will, without doubt, again dictate the market when selling starts at 11 a.m. local time (an hour later than advertised in the catalogue). A fraction of a second here, that is, or sometimes a few inches on the stride there.

Instinctively, many horsemen are wary about any formula that purports to reduce the abiding mysteries of raising and racing Thoroughbreds to spreadsheets. But the routine correlation between times and prices, even in the Ascot bog last week, shows that those setting the market tempo are convinced they are ahead of the curve. One way or another, these things have a habit of shaking themselves out. Remember the old telegram home? “System working well, send more money.”

And while many consignors have candidly altered their methods, in deference to the power of the stopwatch, all they really need today is for the opposing schools to keep bidding. For many of them had a truly horrible start to the European breeze-up season at Ascot, when every other lot failed to reach its reserve.

Some were still grumbling about the lack of buyers last week. The wiser of them will realise that the blame, in such circumstances, is not necessarily with sales companies–but rather closer to home. The aggregate breeze-up herd this spring is drastically enlarged. This catalogue, for instance, is up to 207 from 152 last year. (A staggering curio: no fewer than 18 are by Dandy Man (Ire).) And apparently there are still fellows out there complaining that they can’t get a sales slot anywhere. But those professionals who have worked so hard to elevate the profile and potential of the breeze-up horse will not be grateful if people treat the sector merely as a refuge for unsold yearlings.

It is too early to panic, anyhow. The Ascot sale, as something of a bargain basement, was peculiarly exposed to the chills–closely related, as they are–of polarisation and overproduction. And there was a heartening sense of bustle about the stable complex during the post-breeze inspections yesterday afternoon.

After all, this sale has evolved a pretty robust identity. Much as is the case at the Premier Yearling Sale, in August, the emphasis is on those commercial bywords: speed and precocity. If they call them “trainers’ horses,” then partly that might be because they don’t actually involve a great deal of training. But the main appeal, clearly, is that many of these animals can be pushed to owners as more or less ready to roll. When it comes to eliciting that one last bid, moreover, the trainers can legitimately mutter the “A” word: Ascot.

Two years ago the pair of Kodiac (GB) colts who shared top billing here both won at Royal Ascot, Prince Of Lir (Ire) in the Norfolk and Ardad (Ire) in the Windsor Castle. They had cost £170,000 apiece, but last year another son of Kodiac brought more than twice that sum, at £360,000, from Richard O’Gorman for Godolphin. He proceeded to go down by just a neck in the Windsor Castle. At the other end of the scale, Declan Carroll picked out a G3 Cornwallis S. winner for just £16,000 from Star Bloodstock, in Abel Handy (Ire) (Arcano {Ire}).

In all, 44 juvenile winners graduated from the 2017 sale, up from 37 the previous year. The message from Henry Beeby, the Goffs UK chairman, was clear.

“We’ve had more 2-year-old winners out of this sale than any other European breeze-up over the last two years,” Beeby said. “I think the point is that the vendors pick the horses for us, as much as we do when we go looking with them. They know there’s a Donny type, just as there is with the yearlings, so we’re blessed that way. And they’ve stepped up to the mark again.”

“Two years ago the sale definitely stumbled, but then we had great results on the track–four winners at Royal Ascot, the two 2-year-olds out of that sale and then the two [older] Group 1 winners on top–so that brought us storming back last year and we had a wonderful sale,” he said.

No less than in the quality of their horses, Beeby is relying on vendors to have made the right call in terms of quantity.    “Normally they distil it down for you, when you send them the forms,” he explained. “We sent out the same number of forms this year as last year, but the take-up was greater. We didn’t set out to get over 200 horses. We were aiming for around 180, 190. But you’ve got to go with it, and trust the vendors to send you the right horses.”

That was not to wash his hands of the responsibility if things don’t work out. “No, that’s our problem too because it all rolls on, you’re only as good as your last sale,” he stressed. “When you’re making decisions in 10 months’ time, you’re thinking about what happens tomorrow. But I thought there were some very nice horses, and pedigrees, and we’ve a lot of interest both from home and overseas. So we’re hopeful.”

In fairness, Beeby is already entitled to a degree of relief–regardless of what happens today. For some thought was even given, a few days ago, to transferring the breezes to Southwell.

“We were properly worried last week,” he admitted. “Because of the forecast, because of the ground, we did have a contingency plan. Happily we didn’t have to use it. It would have been a logistical nightmare. But this is the 42nd consecutive breeze-up held at Doncaster and–come rain, shine, or foot-and-mouth–we’ve always managed to get through it. And actually they breezed very well, so I was very pleased.”

Some of these Keeneland pinhooks would have been an interesting proposition, switched to Fibresand at Southwell. As it is, the clockers’ expectations will evidently be focused not only on a couple of colts by the inevitable Kodiac but also a filly who did not make 30 grand here as a yearling last August. We shall see. But at least we were able to see her gallop.

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