2022 Lightning Stakes runner-by-runner preview & betting tips

[Wandering Eyes]

What	2022 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
Where	Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When	Saturday, February 12, 2022
Prizemoney	$1,000,000
Distance	1000m
Status	Group 1
Conditions	Weight For Age
2021 Winner	Nature Strip (5) | Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: Jamie Kah (58.5kg)
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Flemington is scheduled to host its first Group 1 of the year as a star-studded field assembles for the Lightning Stakes on Saturday afternoon.

Nature Strip is back to defend his crown and has been installed as a $2.50 favourite with online betting sites, whilst his arch-nemesis Eduardo will look to knock him off once again and is a $4 chance in Saturday’s Group 1.

There are some 12 Group 1 victories combined in the nine-horse field, and considering it contains six runners from last year’s Everest, this is sure to be one of the early highlights of the year.

Keep reading for HorseBetting’s full runner-by-runner preview and $100 betting strategy.

1. NATURE STRIP (6)

7yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: Jamie Kah (58.5kg)

Nature Strip is back to defend his Lightning Stakes crown, and we think he will do so with aplomb. He is without a doubt the best sprinter in the country, if not the world, and the reigning Everest champion is set to duke it out with half of the field he beat back in October. The Strip has six wins and a runner-up effort from eight runs at Flemington, and despite just four wins from eight starts when fresh, he should still be too speedy for his rivals once again over 1000m. He is a seven-time Group 1 winner, and with James McDonald jumping off to take the ride on Home Affairs, we’re hoping the combination of Jamie Kah and Chris Waller is a winning one again.

2. EDUARDO (5)

8yo G | T: Joseph Pride | J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg)

Eduardo has been going toe-to-toe with Nature Strip for the best part of two years and has dealt Nature Strip each of his last two defeats. He got the better of his rival in The Shorts over 1100m when the pair went stride-for-stride down the Randwick straight. Despite the genuine class that Eduardo has to his name at this stage in his career, the fact he has just one minor placing from three starts at Flemington is what is stopping us from tipping him. However, he has been Nature Strip’s kryptonite in recent times, and with regular Nash Rawiller making the trip south, the stable mean business.

3. MASKED CRUSADER (3)

5yo G | T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | J: Jye McNeil (58.5kg)

Splitting Nature Strip and Eduardo in last year’s Everest was the Team Hawkes-trained Masked Crusader, and at $9 with Sportsbet, he looks to be the best each-way chance in the race. With most of his rivals looking to gain a spot close to the speed, the backmarker will be the one with the last look at them over the final 100m. He would prefer this over 1200m, but if Nature Strip and Eduardo go too fast for their own good, then Masked Crusader has the turn of foot to get the better of them. He was a good thing licked in The Everest and with even luck can be fighting out the finish here at a nice price.

4. GYTRASH (2)

6yo G | T: Gordon Richards & Damien Moyle | J: Mark Zahra (58.5kg)

Many believe that Gytrash should have defeated both Eduardo and Nature Strip in The Shorts when fresh during the spring, but he kept getting shut off for a run with the two in front of him creating too much traffic over the final 100m. He fires fresh, with four wins and four more placings from eight first-up runs. However, he was beaten 4.67 lengths in The Everest and simply got too far out of his ground in the Classique Legend Stakes when finishing 12th, beaten close on six lengths. On paper, he looks a good bet with seven wins from eight starts at 1000m, including a win in the 2020 Lightning Stakes, but we are happy to let Gytrash go around without our hard-earned on. Still, expect a bold showing first-up.

5. THE INFERNO (4)

5yo G | T: Cliff Brown | J: Damian Lane (58.5kg)

Former Hong Kong galloper The Inferno was one to follow coming out of the spring, having been beaten a nose in the Moir Stakes before a well below-par performance in The Everest. The Cliff Brown-trained bay gelding certainly has a sharp turn of foot, but in a field like this he may find a few of them too sharp over 1000m. This will be his first look down the Flemington straight, and despite his clear class he will be running on late. We’re happy to wait for another day to back The Inferno, perhaps in a Newmarket Handicap?

6. THE ASTROLOGIST (1)

5yo G | T: Leon & Troy Corstens | J: John Allen (58.5kg)

The first of the Leon & Troy Corstens-trained is Flemington specialist The Astrologist, who absolutely eats up the Flemington straight (9: 3-2-3). His best results have come over 1200m, however, and they were in much easier races than this. This will be his first step into Group 1 company, and despite his impressive track record, he is a $51 chance with Ladbrokes for a reason.

7. SWATS THAT (9)

4yo M | T: Leon & Troy Corstens | J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg)

The second of the Leon & Troy Corstens runners, Swats That is seemingly a shadow of the horse she promised to be in her three-year-old season. The only mare in the race finished third in the Black Caviar Lightning last year, but that has proved to be one of the best results in her last seven starts, with her spring being well below par. It was somewhat saved by a second-place finish in the VRC Sprint, where she beaten some 3.25 lengths by Nature Strip. With that in mind, we simply cannot have her and can’t see her starting any shorter than her current $41 quote.

8. HOME AFFAIRS (8)

3yo C | T: Chris Waller | J: James McDonald (55.5kg)

The Chris Waller-trained Home Affairs returns to the track where he smashed his rivals in the Coolmore Stud Stakes on Derby Day in the spring. That was against his own age group, and this is certainly much harder than that. It showed at his start prior in The Everest when thrown in the deep end by Waller, as the colt simply could not keep up with the breakneck speed Nature Strip and Eduardo run their races at. He is the better of the two three-year-olds in the race in terms of future prospects, but we expect he will be feeling the pinch late in a race like this.

9. PROFITEER (7)

3yo C | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr | J: Brett Prebble (55.5kg)

The Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr-trained Profiteer is a genuine speedster and holds a win to his name at the Flemington 1000m. That was on Melbourne Cup Day when defeating Direct and Enthaar, two horses who would be going around at a big price in a race like this. There is no doubting he has above-average ability and the 1000m is ideal for him. He peaked on his run with 100m to go in the Moir Stakes during the spring, and that was with just 52kg on his back in arguably a weaker Group 1 race than this. We think he should be starting at a much bigger quote than the $11 currently on offer at Neds.

2022 Lightning Stakes tips & best bets

Nature Strip is the best sprinter in the world for a reason. He keeps producing when many doubt him, and we expect he will kick off his 2022 campaign with a win in the Lightning Stakes. He is striving to become the first since Black Caviar (2011-2013) to claim the race on consecutive occasions, and despite historically being vulnerable fresh, he looks a clear top selection in the Group 1 feature. He eats up the 1000m and loves the Flemington straight and should be too good for a field that he has beaten on a couple of occasions in the past 12 months. Expect Eduardo, Masked Crusader and Gytrash to be fighting out the minor placings.

Selections:

• 1

  NATURE STRIP

• 14

  EDUARDO

• 7

  MASKED CRUSADER

• 6

  GYTRASH

$100 betting strategy
$100 win	Nature Strip ($2.50)

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