Body & Soul: Newbies Sneak Peek

[Wandering Eyes]

Well that was an interesting development. We refer to the recent Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale where most people got their first good look at yearlings by quite a few members of the Freshman Class of 2019. There were 29 of those stallions represented by 131 offspring before scratches, and we trundled around to look at every one of them. In the end we came away with biomechanical and cardio score measurements for 60 yearlings by 23 of those stallions, seven of which had four or more measured and analyzed.

Those results paralleled almost the same trend we uncovered at the 2017 sale, where we first discovered that the noises most likely to come at Saratoga and Keeneland, as well as this year’s 2-year-old sales. Those were likely to be the offspring of Cairo Prince, Fed Biz, Goldencents and Strong Mandate among those with more than three yearlings analyzed. That result looks somewhat prescient at this time, so we might want to see which of the seven from this year might shake some trees.

Two caveats right off the bat: 1) Not every prominently promoted commercial sire is included in this group, and the main reason is that they had fewer than four yearlings shown, e.g., American Pharoah, Honor Code, Liam’s Map, Wicked Strong. 2) The yearlings that were chosen to be measured passed our physical inspection, and pedigree had nothing to do with how they were selected. We looked at them all, determined the ones we thought would score C+ or better on our biomechanical racing ratings, and went on from there. As it turned out, 49 scored C+ or better, and 11 were rated C. (No, we are not going to give you those scores).

Even though the stallions’ pedigrees and accomplishments were quite varied, one finding that completely dominated the results was that if you think A.P. Indy’s line is either poised for a lull or basically confined to Tapit, “you’ve got another thunk coming.” Not only is he the dominating male-line scion with four of the seven “finalists,” the sire who emerged as the one to really watch is out of a mare by the son of Seattle Slew.

In fact, at one point in the inspection process, one of us looked at another and noted, “We’re seeing a lot of A.P. Indy bodies around here, aren’t we?” Can’t quite put a finger on which yearling it was, but it could have been by one of A.P. Indy’s sons Commissioner or Honor Code, Tapit’s sons Constitution, Race Day or Tapiture, a paternal grandson such as Mr. Speaker, or a maternal grandson such as Khozan.

Then there was Competitive Edge, a son of GI Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver (who is out of a daughter of A.P. Indy). An early maturing, and quite fast, juvenile, he won the GI Hopeful at two and the GIII Pat Day Mile at three in an abbreviated career which reflected his entire sire line, if you could call it that. While some might consider him a scion of Raise a Native, through that one’s son Majestic Prince, grandson Majestic Light and great-grandson Wavering Monarch, that is not exactly the way we look at it biomechanically.

Competitive Edge is a whole n’other smoke from that crowd because–except for some influential contributions as broodmare sires–the “traditional” Wavering Monarch line essentially died out 25 years ago. In its place came a line through one son, Maria’s Mon, a foal of 1993 who was as close to a clone of his broodmare sire, Caro (Ire) in aptitude and mechanics (speed and power) as was his sire close to a clone of Majestic Light (two turn gallopers). Maria’s Mon was very fast but only lasted seven starts. Despite little enthusiasm backing him in the commercial market, he managed to get two Kentucky Derby winners among his 55 stakes winners, Monarchos being the other one. Most of those stakes winners were fast like him.

While Monarchos did not set the world on fire as a sire, Super Saver snuck up on buyers when his first crop was greeted with huzzahs of approval at the yearling and especially 2-year-old sales. That enthusiasm proved well founded when his first crop started running because in addition to Competitive Edge, GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Runhappy is also a member. That heavily promoted stallion has his first crop on the ground and if he throws anything like himself, this crowd could develop into a mini-line.

All that said, it must be obvious that the yearlings by Competitive Edge took the eye as well as the measuring tape well. But in their own ways so did the others with four or more that were analyzed:

Commissioner (A.P. Indy), Constitution (Tapit), Palace (City Zip), Race Day (Tapit), Summer Front (War Front) and Tapiture (Tapit).

Our next assessment will follow in October, after both Saratoga Select and Keeneland September are finished, which will no doubt greatly expand on the depth of the crop, especially the ones not mentioned in this piece.

(Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached at bbfq@earthlink.net).

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