Question for Brodie on betting strategy.

[Walt]

All punters have their red letter days and we've also all had our share of punting nightmares. The trick is to maximize our good days and minimalize the bad. The fact the TAB impose restrictions on your betting speaks to the fact you win more than you lose. I tip my hat to any punter who wins long term year in year out. Well done on that score!

I got fed up betting on low grade meetings many years ago. So many things hidden from view. Dramatic form turn arounds. Horses being driven in a manner where winning was very obviously not a priority etc etc. I've seen many such races that are not much better than glorified trials. I don't mind losing if it's on merit but when you're left shaking your head after races, it's time to put the cue back in the rack. Fact is, with our grading system, winning races can be a negative outcome resulting in connections running out of options very quickly. Mark Jones several years ago spoke honestly about this much to the disapproval of some in the industry. I'm certain you're aware of his statements. Here's one piece I dug up.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/8895759/NZ-harness-racing-handicapping-system-flawed

The way I try and stack the odds in my favour is by only wagering on sought after races on Premier days / nights. The form and ability in those races is exposed. We know the horse will be nailed down fitness wise and with the connections prioritizing said race. Then it comes down to the draw, what you anticipate the race pattern will be, the form of the trainer / driver, it's rivals and the odds. 

I believe you'd need to be a very smart cookie or very lucky to consistently win off low grade racing regardless of how much homework you do. 

The fact that's your preferred race to wager on is perplexing to me. I get that the odds are more appealing than those of say a red hotter All Star in an elite race but I can't see how that works as a long term betting strategy. 

My assumption was that you wager large place bets. 2k for a place on a $1.40 place dividend for example nets you a tidy $800 profit with lesser risk. I have my doubts there as 2k on a low grade race punt would red flag your wager regardless if it was tote of fixed. Putting 2k on a nothing race would also make me very uncomfortable. Then there is the very short odds aspect. I've read you talking negatively about shorties and them being a turn off. As a result, I rule this wager out as your betting strategy. I'm not asking you to confirm how you wager and the amounts but I'm interested in a few aspects. Does perceived "value" play an important role? If so, how do you ascertain what is value in a low grade race? Do you punt every week? On an average betting day, would you wager on less than three runners at a meeting or more? Does math play an important role in your calculations? Would you wager on a first starter? Do you prefer trotters over pacers? Do you wager on standing start races? Do you follow stables and or drivers? Are there any NZ tracks you won't punt on? Do you punt on rain effected tracks? 

Cheers,

Walt.

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Walt said:

All punters have their red letter days and we've also all had our share of punting nightmares. The trick is to maximize our good days and minimalize the bad. The fact the TAB impose restrictions on your betting speaks to the fact you win more than you lose. I tip my hat to any punter who wins long term year in year out. Well done on that score!

I got fed up betting on low grade meetings many years ago. So many things hidden from view. seen many such races that are not much better than glorified trials. I don't mind losing if it's on merit but when you're left shaking your head after races, it's time to put the cue back in the rack. Fact is, with our grading system, winning races can be a negative outcome resulting in connections running out of options very quickly. Mark Jones several years ago spoke honestly about this much to the disapproval of some in the industry. I'm certain you're aware of his statements. Here's one piece I dug up.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/8895759/NZ-harness-racing-handicapping-system-flawed

The way I try and stack the odds in my favour is by only wagering on sought after races on Premier days / nights. The form and ability in those races is exposed. We know the horse will be nailed down fitness wise and with the connections prioritizing said race. Then it comes down to the draw, what you anticipate the race pattern will be, the form of the trainer / driver, it's rivals and the odds. 

I believe you'd need to be a very smart cookie or very lucky to consistently win off low grade racing regardless of how much homework you do. 

The fact that's your preferred race to wager on is perplexing to me. I get that the odds are more appealing than those of say a red hotter All Star in an elite race but I can't see how that works as a long term betting strategy. 

My assumption was that you wager large place bets. 2k for a place on a $1.40 place dividend for example nets you a tidy $800 profit with lesser risk. I have my doubts there as 2k on a low grade race punt would red flag your wager regardless if it was tote of fixed. Putting 2k on a nothing race would also make me very uncomfortable. Then there is the very short odds aspect. I've read you talking negatively about shorties and them being a turn off. As a result, I rule this wager out as your betting strategy. I'm not asking you to confirm how you wager and the amounts but I'm interested in a few aspects. Does perceived "value" play an important role? If so, how do you ascertain what is value in a low grade race? Do you punt every week? On an average betting day, would you wager on less than three runners at a meeting or more? Does math play an important role in your calculations? Would you wager on a first starter? Do you prefer trotters over pacers? Do you wager on standing start races? Do you follow stables and or drivers? Are there any NZ tracks you won't punt on? Do you punt on rain effected tracks? 

Cheers,

Walt.

Good questions Walt.

What I would say is that it is  not difficult to make money on harness!

It is all about doing your homework!

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Brodie

[Nowornever]

On 6/04/2022 at 7:04 AM, Walt said:

Does perceived "value" play an important role? If so, how do you ascertain what is value in a low grade race? Do you punt every week? On an average betting day, would you wager on less than three runners at a meeting or more? Does math play an important role in your calculations? Would you wager on a first starter? Do you prefer trotters over pacers? Do you wager on standing start races? Do you follow stables and or drivers? Are there any NZ tracks you won't punt on? Do you punt on rain effected tracks? 

Yes. Do Your homework. Yes. Sometimes and sometimes. Yes. Yes. No depends on the value. Yes. Sometimes if the value is there. No. Yes