Thomass Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: Generally. Nothing wrong using the word. Just using it as the basis for assessing chance of a horse is where it is flawed. I don't do 1600 simulations. I do 1500. I used to do 5000. But the resulting chance assessment didn't vary to any degree so saved time by doing less. Thanks for your recommendation anyway. No probs... So why don't you tell the world...for once... What are the exact race base qualifications needed for these sims? How for example do you enter 'fit' when you can't read track workouts or last start efforts... ...you know 6L away after the perfect run the same as unlucky az? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 What could that do for them? But here's a brief summary just because I know it'll get a response from you. The most important information I have and use is the vast detail of performance of horses on tracks/distances/conditions to enable comparative performance. You might call it a generalisation. But I don't use it like that since I use it as a ranking means, not in a 'general' sense. And then based on how many starts a horse has had, and the variances between those starts and the distance/condition of the race in question, I get a confidence level. So I define the time I believe the horse will run in the race and a confidence of accuracy. And I model that to get the chance of winning, coming second etc etc. I have other considerations(all relate to the specific horse, not a population generalisation) that I also consider to determine the expected time the horse will run. Quite simple. But I like it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Ghost said: I wasn’t talking about individual events nor was I disagreeing with you Passabache raced 3 wide facing the breeze and went onto win Watching the first race how it unfolds can be a huge advantage whether you think the tracks playing true And factoring these things is brilliant. I'm too lazy and u able to quantify. And in my argument against what Thomass states, it is the 'general' application of a negative (or a positive) which is flawed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 27 minutes ago, mardigras said: What could that do for them? But here's a brief summary just because I know it'll get a response from you. The most important information I have and use is the vast detail of performance of horses on tracks/distances/conditions to enable comparative performance. You might call it a generalisation. But I don't use it like that since I use it as a ranking means, not in a 'general' sense. And then based on how many starts a horse has had, and the variances between those starts and the distance/condition of the race in question, I get a confidence level. So I define the time I believe the horse will run in the race and a confidence of accuracy. And I model that to get the chance of winning, coming second etc etc. I have other considerations(all relate to the specific horse, not a population generalisation) that I also consider to determine the expected time the horse will run. Quite simple. But I like it. Good Stuff Mardi, no fears as Looney wont understand much of what you have posted. I am similar & I delve deep into past performance, I ignore the last 3 starts. I assume that if its racing between 1 April and 30 September it can handle wet tracks so I ignore conditions unless its an unseasonable dead or good. I ask myself 1 final question before I place every bet. IS there anything about today that suggests this horse is at its peak based on anytime in its performance history. I have 1 selection today and thats Yamato Nadeshiko at $17 in the last, if it runs up to its past performance history it would destroy this field. Probably needs 2000mtrs & a run or 2, I have it rated at $8.50 so at $17 I can take the risk its up to the task. Now my final question is a yes on past performance alone, only Joby can match it for ability. Would be interested in what you rated it at Mardi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 (edited) 29 minutes ago, mardigras said: And factoring these things is brilliant. I'm too lazy and u able to quantify. And in my argument against what Thomass states, it is the 'general' application of a negative (or a positive) which is flawed. I highly doubt you’re too lazy Anywho I agree Track/Distance/Conditions Chief De Beers trained Eagle Farm never won there Then how many runs into their prep Then barrier speed maps Let me say speed maps are becoming more and more flawed as the top trainers now employ analysts so they can advise their jockey how to ride so if you end up with 3 or 4 trainers saying there is no speed in the race take them to the front all of a sudden there is speed in the race One thing you can’t take into consideration when doing your ratings is track bias If you think there maybe a track bias early there maybe value later on Edited August 24, 2018 by Ghost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 Couple of great posts there. Barry, yes the trends around what a horse does and when is part of when I include extra horse specific things. And Ghost, any things such as bias, improper surface I can't factor in pre meeting. But can only be avoided if I see that and am able to stop punting. Which is not always the case. Ill give you my price post race for that horse barryb. Not at home to check it. Hope it runs well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 (edited) 5 hours ago, barryb said: I have 1 selection today and thats Yamato Nadeshiko at $17 in the last, if it runs up to its past performance history it would destroy this field. Probably needs 2000mtrs & a run or 2, I have it rated at $8.50 so at $17 I can take the risk its up to the task. Now my final question is a yes on past performance alone, only Joby can match it for ability. Would be interested in what you rated it at Mardi. Had a look at this one barryb, I priced it today at $25. I had 10 , 8, 1 lowest. Or if I was Thomass, I had #2 best in that one. Edited August 24, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Thanks Mardi, ran to your price. Its one I am happy to admit I got wrong. Something Thomass couldn't do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 (edited) On 24/08/2018 at 11:53 AM, barryb said: Good Stuff Mardi, no fears as Looney wont understand much of what you have posted. I am similar & I delve deep into past performance, I ignore the last 3 starts. I assume that if its racing between 1 April and 30 September it can handle wet tracks so I ignore conditions unless its an unseasonable dead or good. I ask myself 1 final question before I place every bet. IS there anything about today that suggests this horse is at its peak based on anytime in its performance history. I have 1 selection today and thats Yamato Nadeshiko at $17 in the last, if it runs up to its past performance history it would destroy this field. Probably needs 2000mtrs & a run or 2, I have it rated at $8.50 so at $17 I can take the risk its up to the task. Now my final question is a yes on past performance alone, only Joby can match it for ability. Would be interested in what you rated it at Mardi. I suspect the only thing you've ever done deeply... ...is dive into your Chup basket... Ignore the last 3 starts...ffs Thats like Grassy treating a 6L perfect trail with a totes unlucky run Theyre not ROBOTS...and they run into and out of form...some remain out of form wtf knew Thats why moi always looks for excuses when doing ANALYSIS Anything else is a guessing game Edited August 28, 2018 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 T you are just far too stupid for me to try and explain to you that form is not a good indicator of fitness, just as poor form is not an indicator of an unfit horse. Otherwise T there would be No winners above $10, but that entire point will be lost on a thick shit like you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Thomas, Do me a favour please Place your bets on Saturday - put them up pre race and let's see your theories work We could all make an easy Dollar when we follow you No talk Thomas - time for action Somehow I don't think you will take up my offer 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooncoin Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Should it have taken 14 pages on this thread to get here!! Remind's me of a quote in a book I'm reading where gangster Charlie Mitchell stops into his local after a days racing 10k flush. "All congratulating each other on backing a winner or two and by the end of the night have backed the winners of the whole F ing card"!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooncoin Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Sorry folks,was supposed to read"all the plebs congratulating each other Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 16 hours ago, barryb said: T you are just far too stupid for me to try and explain to you that form is not a good indicator of fitness, just as poor form is not an indicator of an unfit horse. Otherwise T there would be No winners above $10, but that entire point will be lost on a thick shit like you. I've never said form is an indicator of fitness at all bazz... But doing what you and grassi attempt to do...in ignoring the fact horses are not always at peak...read 'out of form' ...is mindless...just as pricing every horse is...when they have no chance...what a waste of time Id suggest you listen to Rob Waterhouse's podcast...he puts you to bed well and truely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 35 minutes ago, Thomass said: I've never said form is an indicator of fitness at all bazz... But doing what you and grassi attempt to do...in ignoring the fact horses are not always at peak...read 'out of form' ...is mindless...just as pricing every horse is...when they have no chance...what a waste of time Id suggest you listen to Rob Waterhouse's podcast...he puts you to bed well and truely Please tell us what criteria you use for a horse having no chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Simply...totes out of form...after analysis...read..having every possible chance... Robbie says in his podcast " I adjust ratings post race for any unlucky runs etc." yep...too obvious... you and grassi treat a last start, every chance, 6L away...the same as blocked or caught wide without cover don't you? So I've migrated to simply using moi's 'niches' of fit horses...I.e. Backing up well... ...and superior class obviously...back to inferior...like HTBH...and it really is hard with the success that brings to be fair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Thomass said: you and grassi treat a last start, every chance, 6L away...the same as blocked or caught wide without cover don't you? No I don't, I don't even consider the last start & what happened. What you are describing is known to everyone and provides me with zero usable information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Last 3 you don't then That ignores the fact horses can simply be out of form doesn't it? I always forgive one start but never a last start if I can't find an excuse Take HTBH last week... took the visors off the start before...slow out and never looked really interested... Blinkers back on switched her on and raced handier than usual... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Thomass said: Last 3 you don't then That ignores the fact horses can simply be out of form doesn't it? I always forgive one start but never a last start if I can't find an excuse Take HTBH last week... took the visors off the start before...slow out and never looked really interested... Blinkers back on switched her on and raced handier than usual... Yes I ignore the last 3 starts, losing punters are obsessed with what a horse did last start, there are too many variables to be obsessed with 1 run & as I said I ignore the last 3 & focus on past history. The only reason I am remotely interested in the last 3 runs is they influence what Punters are likely to bet on, if my selection has 3 duck eggs I am more happy as it will be ignored. Unlike you I will tolerate long runs of outs as I am a realist and understand shit happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Fair enough and I too like 3 chook eggs... Thers nothing like finding a horse like RUNLIKEYOUFINSTOLEIT.... ...racing on bad tracks for 4 starts...last suitable track was the G3 where I had her getting to within 2 1/2L of the winner at set weights...after compensating for the wide draw..back to R 75 on a S8 Or a stayer with an excuse last start...and 2 prep runs from a spell over shorter distances before that...then Blinkers going on... ...then you know they're on the f in job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2018 Author Share Posted August 29, 2018 3 hours ago, Thomass said: ..just as pricing every horse is...when they have no chance...what a waste of time I quite like pricing the whole field for times such as when you though it crazy I priced the favourite at 6s that was being offered at 2s. You said the same thing then, and the only ones you mentioned as chances didn't even fill a place. And the one at 2s. No where to be seen. I find it odd that you claim to assess a price for the horse's you go on about, yet you never have shown that is actually the case, and you don't price the whole field. Something doesn't add up and that something is you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 I don't yet grasp how you can price one horse or a few horses without pricing the rest of the field. Surely you have to price to 100% market or similar. Something definitely doesn't add up and I'm still trying to figure out what that is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 You use a different philosophy to punting and pricing Im into 'mindfulness' and 'enlightenment'...you know cop the f on.. ....you're into...wtf knows? HTF could you price SENASSY at 80's after a Northern 3rd. Only 1 1/2L behind the winner...with all that residual fitness exposed?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2018 Author Share Posted August 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Thomass said: HTF could you price SENASSY at 80's after a Northern 3rd. Only 1 1/2L behind the winner...with all that residual fitness exposed?? Probably the same way I priced Firebird Flyer at 70s when you claimed it was value at 4s. And the 7 or 8 recently (before the races) I put up at massive rated prices that all started in single figures - and ran down the track. When you put your selections up in Turny's thread, make sure you put up your assessed prices as well. I look forward to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2018 Author Share Posted August 29, 2018 22 hours ago, Thomass said: ...is mindless...just as pricing every horse is...when they have no chance...what a waste of time What is mindless is this comment. Since anyone that can label just one horse in each race that has 'no chance', could easily turn $100k into $50k profit every single week of the year. That's just one horse in each race. Yet Thomass chooses to bet on other runners and lose. Something still not adding up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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