The Showdown 2022 runner-by-runner preview & betting strategy

[Wandering Eyes]

What	The Showdown 2022
Where	Caulfield Racecourse – 22 Station St, Caulfield East VIC 3145
When	Saturday, April 23, 2022 | Race 6 | 3:20pm AEST
Prizemoney	$1,000,000
Distance	1200m
Status	Restricted – VOBIS Horses Only
Conditions	Two-Year-Olds | Set Weights
2021 Winner	Finance Tycoon (13) | Trainer: Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig | Jockey: Luke Nolen (58kg)
Streaming Live at Sportsbet

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The fourth running of The Showdown is the feature event of the nine-race card at Caulfield on Saturday afternoon. The $1 million race is restricted to VOBIS qualified two-year-old horses and is run over 1200m.

This year’s event looks to have three key chances in the 14-horse field. The Adam Trinder-trained Bello Beau is a $2.50 elect with online bookmakers, whilst Sir Bailey ($5) and Hollerlujah ($7) are deemed the main dangers, with every other runner marked as an $11 chance or greater.

Keep reading for HorseBetting’s full runner-by-runner preview and $100 betting strategy.

1. BELLO BEAU (8)

2yo G | T: Adam Trinder | J: Brendon McCoull (58kg)

The Adam Trinder-trained Bello Beau was one of the tougher beats to cop on William Reid Stakes night, where the two-year-old gelding simply saw no clear air in the Listed St Albans Stakes. Having settled three back on the fence, the Brazen Beau gelding simply found too much traffic at a crucial point and went to the line relatively untested, beaten just 1.7 lengths by Crosswinds. He draws barrier eight on Saturday and we expect Brendon McCoull to keep Bello Beau settled midfield one off the rail and try and have him in clear approaching the home turn, thus taking bad luck out of the equation. Prior to his defeat at The Valley, he had won three in succession in Tasmania in impressive fashion and if he is anywhere near his best, we expect Bello Beau to blow this field away.

2. SIR BAILEY (4)

2yo C | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Jamie Kah (58kg)

The clear and obvious danger to the favourite is Sir Bailey from the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace yard who actually beat home Bello Beau when they clashed in the St Albans Stakes. This guy does look to be a progressive type and could wind up being a good Caulfield Guineas horse in the spring. However, at the moment he has shown enough to suggest he will be no easybeat on Saturday, especially if he can replicate his second-up run at Sandown on February 16 when impressively beating the highly touted Merchant Prince. From barrier four, we expect Jamie Kah to have the colt positioned just off the leaders and could look like the winner at certain points in the home straight. The fact he has one win from four starts, is one of the key reasons why we have Bello Beau ahead of him, but Sir Bailey is in this right up to his neck.

3. NEW YORK HURRICANE (2)

2yo G | T: Liam Howley | J: Jason Maskiell (58kg)

The Liam Howley-trained New York Hurricane appreciated getting onto a firmer deck at Bendigo in the VOBIS Gold Rush when going down by a half-head to Hollerlujah and Over Shady, two horses he meets again on Saturday. However, in the field of 14 he will need a huge amount of luck from barrier two, especially considering he isn’t blessed with the best barrier manners once the gates fling back. The wet track is a query and with an abundance of luck required, we’re happy to let New York Hurricane go around without our hard earned on.

4. KINGS CONSORT (6)

2yo G | T: Anthony & Sam Freedman | J: Mark Zahra (58kg)

It is tricky trying to line up the form that the Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained Kings Consort brings into the Showdown considering he has two minor placings to his name from three starts. He clearly hasn’t gone around in a race like this and from barrier six will look to roll forward and plant himself up on speed. He is another who will look to improve in his three-year-old campaign, but we just cannot entertain him in a race like this.

5. DON’T CHANGE (7)

2yo G | T: Nick Ryan | J: Rhys McLeod (58kg)

The Nick Ryan-trained Don’t Change is another coming out of the VOBIS Gold Rush at Bendigo on April 2 and looks primed for a race like this. He travelled no better than three wide with no cover on what was his debut run from a midfield position. He stuck on nicely when finishing fifth beaten just over a length and with an easier run in transit, arguably finishes closer than what he did. From barrier seven, he will need a touch of luck in finding cover once again, but if he does, logic suggests he will be a trifecta/first four hope.

6. RUE DE PALAIS (14)

2yo G | T: Tony & Calvin McEvoy | J: John Allen (58kg)

The Tony & Calvin McEvoy-trained Rue De Palais finished midfield in the Vobis Gold Rush at Bendigo on debut and despite running on nicely late was never a winning chance. He looks set to appreciate the step up to the 1200m but is a horse screaming out for a 1400m or 1600m type of trip. Barrier 14 is no help either and we have a few in front of him in The Showdown.

7. PROMISES KEPT (5)

2yo G | T: Greg Eurell | J: Blaike McDougall (58kg)

The Greg Eurell-trained Promises Kept didn’t show much on debut at Pakenham on March 31 when not beating a runner home and will need a big form reversal to be fighting out the finish in this. He was a $5 chance with online betting sites that day, but goes around as a $61 in this, a much tougher assignment.

8. STARDOM AWAAYTS (11)

2yo G | T: Matthew Williams | J: Damien Thornton (58kg)

Stardom Awaayts from the Matthew Williams stable didn’t show enough on debut at Terang on April 10 to suggest he will feature in the finish in The Showdown. The $126 quote with Ladbrokes seems the right price.

9. HOLLERLUJAH (12)

2yo F | T: Henry Dwyer | J: Mitchell Aitken (56kg)

Henry Dwyer and Mitchell Aitken will be looking to make it two wins in as many starts for Hollerlujah who arrived just in time to claim the VOBIS Gold Rush on debut. Having settled towards the rear of the field on that day, the Holler filly flew home late to get the bob in on the line and looked like a horse who will only get better as she steps up to the 1200m. It is hard to tell what she beat compared to the form that Bello Beau and Sir Bailey bring to a race like this, but there is no denying that Hollerlujah will be fighting out the finish one way or another. She will be giving her rivals a start, but if they show any chinks in their armour, than Hollerlujah has what it takes to take out a race like The Showdown.

10. OVER SHADY (13)

2yo F | T: Matt Laurie | J: Jye McNeil (56kg)

The Matt Laurie-trained Over Shady gained the suck run in transit in the VOBIS Gold Rush and despite have the race shot to pieces 100m out from home, simply couldn’t hold out the fast-finishing Hollerlujah. In both of this filly’s starts she has shown early speed and been able to get a sit off the leaders, but from barrier 13 on Saturday will need plenty to go right on Saturday if she is to gain a similar cart into the race. Despite her recent efforts, the $15 looks a touch of unders, with too much needing to go right for her to feature in the finish.

11. SOJU SESSION (9)

2yo F | T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | J: Craig Newitt (56kg)

The Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young-trained Soju Session gained every favour in the VOBIS Gold Rush but was simply no match for a couple of her rivals who she meets once again on Saturday. Having won on debut on a rain-affected track, we know she will handle whatever conditions are thrown her way, but considering she wants to roll forward, she will need some luck from barrier nine to not get caught deep throughout. She needs a slow-moderate tempo to feature in the finish and in a race like this, that seems unlikely.

12. CAPITAL EXPRESS (9)

2yo F | T: Nick Ryan | J: Billy Egan (56kg)

The one we are going to give an each-way push to is the Nick Ryan-trained Capital Express, considering he looks to be the only leader on paper in the race. With just about all of her rivals wanting to get back and run on, they way she controlled things on debut at Cranbourne on April 1, suggests she could run a cheeky race at a price on Saturday. With raceday experience under her belt and a tactical advantage on her side, we’re happy to have a dabble at the $17 on offer from Unibet, with the only query being if she is up to this type of level so early in her career.

13. MAKE IT HAPPEN (2)

2yo F | T: Ben & JD Hayes | J: Michael Dee (56kg)

Unfortunately for Ben Hayes, it is unlikely he will add a second Showdown win to his name, this time with his brother JD, following the win of Finance Tycoon with Tom Dabernig last year. Make It Happen is coming off a midfield finish in a Pakenham maiden on March 24 where she didn’t really show much and is probably look for an easier race than this to break her maiden. $41 seems a fair price.

14. VOLANDER (3)

2yo F | T: Matt Laurie | J: Ethan Brown (56kg)

The Matt Laurie-trained Volander is set to resume from a 12-week freshen up, but considering how badly she weakened inside the final 250m on debut at Pakenham on January 27, suggests she may be better next time in. The $71 on offer is a suitable price and we expect to see Volander finish in the second half of the field.

The Showdown selections & best bets

Selections:

• 2

  BELLO BEAU

• 7

  SIR BAILEY

• 6

  HOLLERLUJAH

• 9

  CAPITAL EXPRESS

The Showdown $100 betting strategy
$100 win	Bello Beau ($2.50)

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