2022 Memsie Stakes preview & betting strategy | August 27

[Wandering Eyes]

What	Memsie Stakes 2022
Where	Caulfield Racecourse
When	Saturday, August 27, 2022 | Race 8 | 4:45pm AEST
Prizemoney	$1,000,000
Distance	1400m
Status	Group 1
Conditions	Weight For Age
2021 Winner	Behemoth (8) | T: David Jolly | J: Brett Prebble (59kg)
Visit Ladbrokes

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The 2022 Memsie Stakes is the feature event on the nine-race program from Caulfield on Saturday afternoon and a cracking field of 14 is set to contest the Group 1 weight-for-age event over 1400m. Superstars of the track such as Sunline, Makybe Diva, So You Think, Atlantic Jewel and Dissident have all used the Memsie as a launching pad to greater success in the spring. Who will etch their name alongside some of the greats of the turf in the 2022 Memsie Stakes?

Keep reading for HorseBetting’s full runner-by-runner preview and $100 betting strategy

1. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (9)

5yoG | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Mark Zahra (59kg)

Coming off what was a rather disappointing autumn campaign, the 2021 Golden Eagle victor I’m Thunderstruck will be looking to add a second Group 1 win to his name when he resumes in the Memsie. We have not seen this son of Shocking since his shocking run in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes where he was beaten some seven lengths back on April 9. He returns to Caulfield, a track he has a strong affiliation with, having won twice and placed on two other occasions from seven starts at the track. Judging by all reports from the stable and more importantly co-trainer Mick Price, the now five-year-old gelding has returned in fine fashion and is expected to fire first-up from a spell. With two wins from three starts when fresh and boasts a record of 3: 2-0-1 on soft going, we know he will handle what is in front of him on Saturday. Mark Zahra hops on board for the first time and if the 22-time Group 1 winning hoop can have this bloke settled midfield with cover, I’m Thunderstruck looks to be the one who will have the last crack at the on-pace runners in the Memsie and could prove too hard to hold out.

2. CASCADIAN (7)

7yoG | T: James Cummings | J: Blake Shinn (59kg)

Godolphin will be looking to bag the first two Group 1 races of the 2022/23 racing season when Cascadian looks to emulate the win of Anamoe in last weekend’s Winx Stakes. The stable had nominated Cascadian for the Group 1 in Sydney last week, but have opted to send him around in the Memsie. He comes to this on the back of an eye-catching trial behind Anamoe at Warwick Farm on August 5 when hitting the line with great intent under his own steam over 1000m. He rounded out last campaign with a win in the All Aged Stakes, but outside of that, it looked to be a campaign where he left plenty on the table. With a decent enough first-up record of 8: 2-1-2, he should be there or thereabouts, but we expect a couple of his rivals to be a touch too sharp for him this early in the spring.

3. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (1)

6yo G | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Damien Oliver (59kg)

Alligator Blood hasn’t been seen since his remarkable victory in the Stradbroke Handicap during the Queensland Winter Carnival. Despite a strange couple of weeks of the track in terms off his ownership, he is set to go around as favourite with online bookmakers in the Memsie. His winter campaign in Queensland saw him bounce back to the Alligator Blood of old where he was nosed out in the BRC Sprint and then came out and thrashed his rivals in the Straddie. He draws barrier one on Saturday and gains the services of Damien Oliver for the first time in his career. Despite getting back and running on during his winter campaign, we expect Ollie to use the soft draw to his advantage and be camping off the likes of Snapdancer and Lightsaber throughout. The issue is, if he gets shuffled back to a position like three back the fence, he is going to need a mountain of luck at a certain stage, He has the right jockey on board to do that, but with a few too many uncertainties, we are willing to take Alligator Blood on in the Memsie.

4. NONCONFORMIST (4)

6yoG | T: Grahame Begg | J: Jordan Childs (59kg)

It has been almost 12 months since we last saw the Grahame Begg-trained Nonconformist run second in a Caulfield Cup behind Incentivise. He has much bigger aspirations this campaign then winning a 1400m Group 1, which backs up his $31 quote with Ladbrokes. He will find this way too sharp against opposition like this, but look for this son of Rebel Raider to be doing his best work over the final 100m in what will be a good pipe opener for him.

5. WESTERN EMPIRE (12)

5yoG | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Damian Lane (59kg)

Western Australian superstar Western Empire is set to have his first start in Victoria for Danny O’Brien and brings with him a massive reputation. The five-year-old gelding shares early favouritism with Alligator Blood and based off his efforts during the spring last year in Perth, who is to say he cannot blow out his rivals in the Memsie? His win in the Railway Stakes showed he is a genuine Group 1 runner, but he was aided by carrying just 53kg on that day. He needs to lug 59kg against some of his rivals who are proven at weight-for-age level and despite having plenty of x-factor about him, it is hard to take the $5.50 available for him with some online betting sites. He has an electric turn of foot, but from the wide barrier of 12, it is hard to see how he settles close enough to be effective without being trapped wide. A win would not shock, but much like Alligator Blood, we are happy to take Western Empire on.

6. CALLSIGN MAV (14)

6yoG | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Jamie Mott (59kg)

The Danny O’Brien-trained Callsign Mav is a genuine 1400m specialist boasting a record of 9: 4-4-0 at the trip. However, those results have mainly been in weaker races in New Zealand. From the wide barrier (14), he will most likely settle outside expected leader Snapdancer, but we expect Callsign Mav to struggle in such a competitive Group 1 event like this.

7. ELEPHANT (11)

6yoG | T: Emma-Lee & David Browne | J: Daniel Moor (59kg)

With a Cox Plate in mind this campaign, the Emma-Lee & David Browne-trained Elephant will no doubt find this a touch sharp this early in his preparation. However, he did manage to finish second in a Feehan Stakes last preparation and did win the Sandown Stakes over 1500m in albeit weaker company, but it does suggest he is more than capable of standing up in a race like this. However, he left plenty to be desired when convincingly beaten first up by Mr Brightside in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes and a sharp form reversal is required if Elephant is to be fighting out the finish in the first Group 1 of the season.

8. ZEYREK (8)

5yoG | T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | J: Damien Thornton (59kg)

Much the same as Nonconformist, the Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes-trained Zeyrek is a runner who will be using the Memsie as a pipe-opener for bigger races this campaign. Having not won a race less than 2000m in his career, the 1400m at Caulfield is sure to be leaving him wanting compared to most of his rivals. With a bit of luck he will be getting warm inside the final furlong, with a race like The Metropolitan early in October a potential goal for this son of Sea The Stars.

9. DRAGON LEAP (12)

6yoG | T: Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott | J: Michael Dee (59kg)

This looks a genuine throw at the stumps by the Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott yard with Dragon Leap, who looks to be a fair way out of his depth in this. He struggled behind Callsign Mav in the Tarzino Trophy last spring and is sure to find this much harder.

10. LIGHTSABER (6)

4yoH | T: Peter Moody | J: Luke Nolen (58.5kg)

The Peter Moody-trained Lightsaber is a runner who continues to catch the eye in his races but is yet to do much other than tease punters. His second in the Australian Guineas was super, but we would prefer him in something much easier than this.

11. ILLATION (13)

4yoH | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Jamie Kah (58.5kg)

The boom horse to come out of the Adelaide Carnival earlier in the year was undoubtedly the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained Illation. He may not have beaten much at Morphettville, but the manner in which he won his races suggested he was every bit of a Group 1 horse this spring. He is the current favourite for the Golden Eagle this year and his set to embark on a similar campaign to stablemate I’m Thunderstruck did last year. At 58.5kg, he will need to be at his very best first-up from a spell as he needs to prove himself against proven performers at weight-for-age level. From barrier 13, Jamie Kah will need to make a decision early enough whether to go forward and risk getting trapped three wide or opt to take a sit midfield or just worse than midfield. His turn of foot is electric and if Illation is within striking distance on the home turn, he is more than capable of sprinting the better and proving too hard to hold out. We’re willing to back against him in terms of a win bet, but we expect to see Illation finish in the first four at his first cracked at the highest level.

12. TOFANE (3)

7yoM | T: Mike Moroney | J: Jye McNeil (57kg)

The C.F. Orr Stakes winner from the spring Tofane returns to the Caulfield 1400m in a bid to further improve on her already impressive record. The seven-year-old mare was set for the breeding barn following a second in the All Aged Stakes behind Cascadian, but connections have opted to give her another campaign. She is a runner who absolutely thrives at 1400m, having not missed the top three in all eight starts at the trip. She is a four-time Group 1 winning mare and from barrier three is sure to gain the perfect run in transit just off the back of Snapdancer and Callsign Mav. Whether or not she has the sharpness in her legs first-up remains to be seen, but if Tofane is anywhere near what she is capable of, then a top four finish should be on the agenda.

13. DUAIS (10)

5yoM | T: Edward Cummings | J: Joshua Parr (57kg)

It was truly a breakout autumn for the Edward Cummings-trained Duais who managed to take out the Australian Cup and Tancred Stakes in consecutive starts. Now that Verry Elleegant is plying her trade in France, this girl looks to be the top mare in racing in Australia and is set to resume her career in the Memsie, with the Melbourne Cup a potential Grand Final for her. She will be looking to replicate the deeds of Verry Elleegant who has shown if you are good enough, you can win from 1400m to the infamous 3200m in a single campaign. However, we expect Duais to not be fully screwed down for a race like the Memsie, but for those with futures tickets on her for the Cups later this spring, an impressive final 200m or so is a must.

14. SNAPDANCER (5)

6yoM | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Ethan Brown (57kg)

The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Snapdancer showed she is every bit a Group 1 mare last campaign when winning the Robert Sangster Stakes before a huge run when finishing second behind Startantes in the Tatt’s Tiara. It is hard to knock her racing pattern as she is quick out of the gates, can lead any field up and offers a kick in the home straight on the back of any tempo. In a race where she looks set to gain an uncontested lead, we are hoping Ethan Brown can use barrier five to his advantage, have the mare settled in front and with a couple of cheap sectionals expected, there is no reason why Snapdancer cannot take out the Memsie. 1400m against the boys is a slight query, but with Caulfield known to be favourable to leader’s early on in the spring, then conditions may play perfectly into Snapdancer’s hands. At the double figure price, we are happy to be with Snapdancer in the 2022 Memsie Stakes.

2022 Memsie Stakes Selections & Best Bets

Selections:

• 14

  SNAPDANCER

• 1

  I’M THUNDERSTRUCK

• 11

  ILLATION

• 12

  TOFANE

The Showdown $100 betting strategy
$100 win	Snapdancer ($10 @ Neds)

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