2022 Makybe Diva Stakes preview & betting strategy | September 10

[Wandering Eyes]

What	Makybe Diva Stakes 2022
Where	Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When	Saturday, September 10, 2022 | Race 5 | 2:55pm AEST
Prizemoney	$1,000,000
Distance	1600m
Status	Group 1
Conditions	Weight For Age
2021 Winner	Incentivise (3) | T: Peter Moody | J: Brett Prebble (59kg)
Visit Ladbrokes

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The Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m is the feature event on Flemington’s nine-race program. Despite there only being eight runners duking it out for the $1 million on offer, the field is full of quality. Between the eight runners, there are a combined 10 Group 1 victories, and although I’m Thunderstruck is a $2.40 market elect with online bookmakers, there looks to be plenty of chances heading into the first Group 1 race of the 2022/23 season at Flemington.

Keep reading for HorseBetting’s full runner-by-runner preview and $100 betting strategy.

1. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (1)

5yoG | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Mark Zahra (59kg)

The Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained I’m Thunderstruck bounced back from what was a somewhat poor autumn campaign when rattling home for second in the Memsie Stakes on August 27. He made up a stack of ground in the home straight where he was beaten by just a half-length by all-the-way winner Snapdancer. He meets a majority of the rivals he beat home on that occasion once again and outside of Cascadian (who finished third) none of his rivals who he meets again on Saturday got within three-lengths of him. The main concern for I’m Thunderstruck is the tricky draw of barrier one, the same barrier he drew in the All Star Mile at this track and trip earlier in the year. He got held up for a run on that day, but considering the size of this field, we expect Mark Zahra to have him settled at the rear of the field away from the fence. If he gets a genuine tempo throughout, his turn of foot is electric and we expect to see I’m Thunderstruck sprout wings down the centre of the track and bring up a second career Group 1 victory. The $2.40 with Ladbrokes might be a touch short, but perhaps post-race we might be saying it was not short enough.

2. CASCADIAN (7)

7yoG | T: James Cummings | J: Blake Shinn (59kg)

The James Cummings-trained Cascadian was an eye-catcher out of the Memsie last time out where he simply got too far out of his ground before hitting the line strongly to go down by a half a length. The seven-year-old gelding simply does not know how to run a poor race at Flemington and that is reflected by his record at the track and trip. He has three minor placings from four starts at the infamous Flemington mile and the race looks well within his grasp if I’m Thunderstruck strikes any traffic issues. He will need to be in front of I’m Thunderstruck when they turn, as we don’t think he can quite match the turn of foot I’m Thunderstruck possesses. If Blake Shinn can have him settled in the moving line with cover, then Cascadian is a clear danger and can cause somewhat of a minor upset in the Makybe Diva.

3. REGAL POWER (3)

7yoG | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Damien Oliver (59kg)

The Danny O’Brien-trained Regal Power was well beaten behind Mr Brightside in his first start since the middle of December and looked like he will only get better over further. He gets that here as he steps up to the mile from 1400m and despite having three wins from as many starts at the 1600m, we anticipate he wants 2000m+ at this stage of his career. A top four finish would not shock, but we can’t make too big of a case for Regal Power to be winning this.

4. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (2)

6yoG | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Tim Clark (59kg)

It was a tough watch for those who backed Alligator Blood in the Memsie, with the six-year-old gelding continually running into backsides and ultimately being beaten by five-lengths. The booking of Tim Clark signals the intent from the stable to lead having drawn low once again and in a field lacking an out and out leader, Alligator Blood may just lead his rivals a merry dance in the Makybe Diva. He has a near bombproof record of 6: 4-1-0 when second-up from a spell, however, with rain forecast in the 72 hours leading up to Saturday, his wet track performances in the past have him as a hard conveyance to back. With a record of 4: 1-0-0 on wet ground, the $4.80 quote with online betting sites looks to be a bit too short in our opinion.

5. MO’UNGA (8)

5yoH | T: Annabel Neasham | J: Jamie Kah (59kg)

The first-up run by the Annabel Neasham-trained Mo’unga was a complete forgive run, with the now five-year-old finding more traffic in the home straight than you do during peak hour on the M1. Despite failing to beat a runner home, jockey Tommy Berry simply said he lost all momentum when held up at a crucial point, so we are willing to forgive him on this occasion. He comes back to Flemington, a track he is yet to finish outside of the top three at in three starts and despite being an each-way price in the Makybe Diva, he strikes us as one of the better “roughies” in a race like this. He has shown in the past he can settle closer to the speed and in a race where there should not be much competition for a spot close to the speed, look for Jamie Kah to have this bloke lobbed in the one-one throughout. If she can do that, Mo’unga is a superstar on his day and cannot be ruled out in Saturday’s Group 1.

6. NONCONFORMIST (6)

6yoG | T: Grahame Begg | J: Jordan Childs (59kg)

The Grahame Begg-trained Nonconformist is a stayer on the rise and is a genuine chance of winning the Caulfield Cup this year. However, in a race like the Makybe Diva Stakes against such quality opposition that he faces on Saturday, he is sure to find this much too hard. Once he gets out over 2000m, look out!

7. WESTERN EMPIRE (5)

5yoG | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Damian Lane (59kg)

The Railway Stakes winner Western Empire was given every chance in the Memsie Stakes when gaining the suck run in transit, but simply could not match it with the eventual first four. He was beaten 3.6 lengths on that day and looked like he needed something a touch easier this early into a campaign. The step up to the mile second-up looks to be much more to his liking and despite no doubt wanting further, cannot be ignored in a race like this. His turn of foot is electric and if Damian Lane can have him settled three pairs back at worse, Western Empire is more than capable of taking out the Group 1 and is certainly a trifecta/first four player.

8. SHE’S IDEEL (4)

7yoM | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Ben Melham (57kg)

Now with the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace stable, the formerly Bjorn Baker-trained She’s Ideel has bigger targets in mind this spring over a lot further than the 1600m she resumes at on Saturday. Having not tasted success in almost 12 months, it is hard to make a case for her in any race shorter than 2000m and we expect to see her finish alongside Nonconformist and Regal Power at the rear of the field on Saturday.

2022 Makybe Diva Selections & Best Bet

• 1

  I’M THUNDERSTRUCK

• 2

  CASCADIAN

• 5

  MO’UNGA

• 7

  WESTERN EMPIRE

Makybe Diva Stakes $100 betting strategy
$100 win	I’m Thunderstruck ($2.40)

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