Darwin racing preview, best bets & top odds | Saturday 19/11/22

[Wandering Eyes]

What	Darwin Races
Where	Darwin Turf Club – Buntine Dr, Fannie Bay NT 0820
When	Saturday, November 19, 2022
First Race	2:56pm ACST
Visit Ladbrokes

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We head to Darwin this Saturday for a five-race card out of Fannie Bay. HorseBetting’s NT racing analyst has picked out his best bets for the meeting on November 19, 2022.

Race 1 (2.56pm) – $21,525 Sky Racing Benchmark 76 Handicap (1600m)

Noir De Rue made a triumphant return on Melbourne Cup Day with an outstanding win in open company over 1300m. The eight-year-old gelding was well behind the leaders and victory seemed unlikely on November 1 before he hit top gear in the home straight to trounce his rivals by six lengths. Carries an extra 4.5kg this week, but Noir De Rue, who has left his mark in WA and SA, should have the class to make it back to back wins in the Top End for the first time. In the past two years the son of Blackfriars has finished third and fourth in the Darwin Cup (2050m). The Mistral has had four wins from six starts at Fannie Bay and with 57kg poses a major threat after an outstanding first up win over 1600m (0-70) when he last raced on October 22. Prince Ruban has been racing well at a lower grade and with 55kg could spring a surprise as he has won three of his past four starts over 1600m. Zap finished third (0-58) and seventh (0-64) behind Prince Ruban in his past two starts over 1600m. Meadows Young Buck makes a significant jump in grade, but with a 3kg claim will carry 11.5kg less than Noir De Rue.

Best Bet

Race 1 – #1 Noir De Rue (1)

8yo Gelding | T: Jason Manning | J: Vanessa Arnott (63.5kg)

$2.70 with Bet365

Race 2 (3.37pm) – $23,100 Ladbrokes Blended Bets Handicap (1200m)

Bat Pad is one of the form horses in Darwin and will be aiming to make it four straight wins when she debuts in open company. The five-year-old mare had 10 starts in Victoria, NSW and Queensland for just one win over 900m in a Newcastle maiden in October 2020. The daughter of Brazen Beau debuted in the Top End in May and in her first four starts she managed two seconds and two thirds before saluting over 1200m (0-58), 1000m (Class 2) and 1100m (0-70). Cielo D’Oro and Mr Cashman will provide stiff opposition come Saturday. Cielo D’Oro has won two races from five starts since arriving from Victoria and with a 3kg claim is a huge chance after a last start second behind Noir De Rue in open company over 1300m on November 1. Mr Cashman has a good record at Fannie Bay and managed back to back wins over 1200m before a third behind Cielo D’Oro over 1100m on October 1 and a fifth behind Expert Witness over 1000m three weeks later. Patria rarely runs a bad race and will be as competitive as ever, but he hasn’t won since July 2021. Jet Jackson has been a class act in the NT since arriving late last year, but he might find his rivals far too speedy when he returns after a three-month break.

Best Bet

Race 2 – #3 Bat Pad (4)

5yo Mare | T: Mark Nyhan | J: Sonja Wiseman (56kg)

$2.35 with Palmerbet

Race 3 (4.12pm) – $18,375 bet365 TROBIS Class 2 Handicap (1200m)

To The Point has been terrific since arriving from Victoria and gets the nod in what should be a highly competitive race. The four-year-old gelding had five starts in Victoria with the son of Bull Point finishing among the placegetters once in a 1200m maiden at Donald in October last year. Arriving in the NT, To The Point was a narrow winner on debut in an 1100m maiden on October 1 before sneaking home once again over 1100m (BM54) on October 15. On November 1, he finished five and a half lengths adrift of Early Crow, who is above average, over 1100m (Class 2) in second place. A hefty 60kg impost is the biggest concern for To The Point. Cudjerie managed back to back wins over 1000m before a last start fourth behind Early Crow on Melbourne Cup Day and is worthy of another chance. Malibu Edition was a last start winner over 1300m (0-58) on November 1 and looked great. Tsugaru was a last start fifth, but must be considered after a second behind The Mistral over 1300m (0-70) on October 1. Zip Lane, Real Reason, The Kid and Rojo Boom are capable of anything, while a 3kg claim will benefit Turnstar.

Best Bet

Race 3 – #1 To The Point (4)

4yo Gelding | T: Chloe Baxter | J: Casey Hunter (60kg)

$8 with PlayUp

Race 4 (4.50pm) – $19,425 Hygain 0-64 Handicap (1200m)

Early Crow caught the eye when he blitzed his rivals over 1100m (Class 2) on November 1. The four-year-old gelding carried 58.5kg that day and will take some stopping if he picks up from where he left off on Melbourne Cup Day. The son of Kuroshio, who was a first up fourth behind Cudjerie over 1000m (Class 2) on October 15, has only been racing for 11 months and made a solid start to his career in Queensland before going off the boil. Early Crow seemed to have plenty left in the tank last start, but Fragore and First Crusade have the class and talent to keep him honest. Fragore has had four starts in Darwin for a first, second, third and fourth, but hasn’t raced since a third in open class behind Flying Start, named as Alice Springs’ Horse of the Year for 2022, over 1300m on August 1. First Crusade hasn’t raced since July 23 when he finished fourth behind fellow three-year-olds Flying Start, Isola Bay and Super Famous in a high-quality affair over 1200m (BM68). Chief Mondo and Raazou are handy, but will need to lift. At their best Looking For You and Northern Factor can cause an upset.

Best Bet

Race 4 – #3 Early Crow (6)

4yo Gelding | T: Dick Leech | J: Phillip Crich (59.5kg)

$4 with Betfair

Race 5 (5.26pm) – $20,000 Off The Track Lightning Series 0-58 Handicap (1100m)

Kirakat made her debut at Fannie Bay on October 22 and although finishing a narrow second behind Blueant over 1100m (0-58), the daughter of Showcasing should have won. The four-year-old mare settled behind the leader and was sitting three wide before sitting four wide when she battled for the lead turning for home. Kirakat looked set to sweep by Blueant half-way down the home straight before Blueant rallied, but you’d have to think that Kirakat ran out of steam. Kirakat, who raced well on the Ballarat synthetic surface, should benefit from that race and with a decent run in transit should prove hard to beat. Hattan Man gave the leaders far too much start last weekend before storming home to finish second by a length behind Minister over 1000m (0-58), so he is certainly in the mix if he can settle closer to the action. Defence Attorney hasn’t raced since June and has a decent first up record, but he hasn’t tasted victory since November last year. Familja, a 10YO gelding, has had his moments at Fannie Bay since debuting two years ago. Hard To Excel and Mystery Flyer are the clear outsiders.

Best Bet

Race 5 – #4 Kirakat (3)

4yo Mare | T: Jason Manning | J: Vanessa Arnott (58kg)

$1.85 with Ladbrokes

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