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Bit Of A Yarn

Effect Of The Ratio Between Carried And Body Weight On Finishing Time In Thoroughbreds


FeelTheFear

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I was wondering if anyone has looked at horse weight versus carried weight. Have a bit of data I have collected for Hong Kong and decided to record the percentage of body weight to carried weight to gauge possible best ratio times for a winning horse. Just found this article. 

Figure 2 shows when the ratio CW/BW influences on the finished time. The finished time in general were quite good when running the races while carrying the CW of about 12.0-12.7% as compared to the BW of racehorse. When the ratio CW/BW reaches at about 13.0%, the CW has gradually influenced on the finished time.

http://scielo.isciii.es/pdf/azoo/v60n231/art55.pdf

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1 hour ago, curious said:

Not a lot of help here because punters don't know the BW! More interesting to me since you have the data FtF is what impact the combined CW+BW has on times.

Haven't looked at it yet. Will try and do something in near future but just wondered what others thought, would it be helpful to know. If a positive then a small factor to consider in the overall analysis of finding a winner. I try everything and read everything, sometimes it triggers a thought or direction to look. 

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I might anticipate Curious here...this is a population study and not an individual horse study. No matter what the result, analysis should be applied to each individual horse to see if it has a biased CW+BW regarding it's potential best winning weight/weight ratio. 

 

Times might be another matter.... The data I have is from Sept. 2016 and for classes 1,2 and Group.

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I'm not great with statistics but...

248 winners total.
31 winners BW/CW 12.00%-13.48% (12.50%)
217 winners BW/CW <12.00% (87.50%)
124 winners BW/CW <11.00% (50.00%)

2559 non-winners total.
200 Non-Winners BW/CW 12.00%-13.66% (7.82%)
2359 Non-Winners BW/CW <12.00% (92.18%)
1509 Non-Winners BW/CW <11.00% (58.97%)

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1 hour ago, FeelTheFear said:

I might anticipate Curious here...this is a population study and not an individual horse study. No matter what the result, analysis should be applied to each individual horse to see if it has a biased CW+BW regarding it's potential best winning weight/weight ratio.

Exactly FTF. 

6 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

I'm not great with statistics but...

248 winners total.
31 winners BW/CW 12.00%-13.48% (12.50%)
217 winners BW/CW <12.00% (87.50%)
124 winners BW/CW <11.00% (50.00%)

2559 non-winners total.
200 Non-Winners BW/CW 12.00%-13.66% (7.82%)
2359 Non-Winners BW/CW <12.00% (92.18%)
1509 Non-Winners BW/CW <11.00% (58.97%)

If I'm reading this right, this would suggest that it mirrors what is expected generally in Australasian handicap racing. If 31 winners in top group from only 231 starters, that is the best result - possibly showing that 'generally' they might also be the higher weight carrying group and would win more due to handicapping policy not having sufficient effect - due to 1kg not being equal to anywhere near 3/4L.

That is certainly the 'norm' here and in Oz, not helped by absurd handicapping policy that isn't related to performance.

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15 hours ago, mardigras said:

Exactly FTF. 

If I'm reading this right, this would suggest that it mirrors what is expected generally in Australasian handicap racing. If 31 winners in top group from only 231 starters, that is the best result - possibly showing that 'generally' they might also be the higher weight carrying group and would win more due to handicapping policy not having sufficient effect - due to 1kg not being equal to anywhere near 3/4L.

That is certainly the 'norm' here and in Oz, not helped by absurd handicapping policy that isn't related to performance.

Did a quick check on a few horses and it didn't really matter whether the BW/CW ratio increased with regard to wins, though it does fall away over 12%+. I suspect that lighter framed horses will do less well with the higher ratio than heavier framed horses. Another words, a heavier body weight, if corresponding to fitness, may handle the extra weight than a lesser body weight horse, even when the ratio is the same for both. Makes sense. 

I guess it all comes back to the individual horse and that is where my future analysis lies, just need more data. With regards to times, as Curious has noted, that is a line I might investigate for each individual horse. Of course, any positive outcome  on a value for a horse under race day conditions would be a small part of overall assessment. There is too much variability to be accurate. Just my thoughts.

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18 hours ago, mardigras said:

Exactly FTF. 

If I'm reading this right, this would suggest that it mirrors what is expected generally in Australasian handicap racing. If 31 winners in top group from only 231 starters, that is the best result - possibly showing that 'generally' they might also be the higher weight carrying group and would win more due to handicapping policy not having sufficient effect - due to 1kg not being equal to anywhere near 3/4L.

That is certainly the 'norm' here and in Oz, not helped by absurd handicapping policy that isn't related to performance.

Clueless...once again..

Aren't you getting bored by being it 24/7?

Since when has any other jurisdiction raced on an H 20?

1kg definitely does = 3/4L...in NZ...couldn't give a monkeys about anywhere else 

Were not Arstralasian...ok...

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3 hours ago, Thomass said:

Since when has any other jurisdiction raced on an H 20?

1kg definitely does = 3/4L...in NZ...couldn't give a monkeys about anywhere else 

No it doesn't. 

It's laughable that the guy that openly claims to never use times can suddenly define the impact of weight in distance, yet can't even tell the difference between a horse running at Trentham and a horse running at Ellerslie - or the difference between a horse in a G1 and a horse running faster in a maiden. 

Your world is based on guesswork. But never anything factual. It's no doubt why you lose all the time.

 

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