Numbers Game: Living to Breed Another Season

[Wandering Eyes]

While watching a yearling sell for $10,000 last Thursday at Keeneland, I was reminded of a day about 30 years ago when I bumped into Ted Bassett during one of the final days of an exhaustive fall sale.

“See the guy signing that ticket,” Bassett, then the president of Keeneland, said to me. “So happy he made that last bid. So happy he got that filly.”

I looked up at the bid board, where the word “SOLD” was illuminated; the price $12,500.

I remember thinking that earlier in the sale I had watched countless yearlings sell for much more. At the July sale that year, numerous had been hammered down for seven figures. I was confused.

So I asked. And as he always did, Bassett explained.

“We don’t just want to be the place where you come to buy a yearling by Northern Dancer for a million dollars,” Bassett said. “We also want to be the place where you come to buy a $12,500 yearling.”

I still didn’t get it. Professor Bassett continued.

“That guy has been coming here for years. Pulls a two-horse trailer from Oklahoma. When he leaves, he needs to have two horses in that trailer.”

The message was becoming clear. The deep-pocketed owners and trainers need horses. But so, too, do the guys pulling their own trailers.

The media writes about the high-priced horses, the superstar stallions, the buyers who park their private planes across the road.

Those things are, of course, immensely important. But, as Bassett explained, so, too, are the $12,500 yearlings. The buyer of a $12,500 yearling has no illusion he is purchasing a future Grade I winner. It does happen, but for that buyer the goal is a useful allowance horse.

While speaking with Bassett, we were joined by a small breeder.

“Taking one home Ted,” he said. “Had seven in the sale. Hit a home run with one, turned a nice profit on three, broke about even on one, gave one away, going to race one. Lived to breed another season.”

As the man walked away, Bassett said to me, “A hitter is deemed a Hall of Famer if he bats .300.”

In other words, no matter if you are selling in Book 1 or Book Last, or throughout the entire sale, it’s a numbers game. No one hits the ball out of the park every time up.

An hour later, I saw that same small breeder standing near the back walking ring. I wanted to hear more. Make that learn more.

“If I have $15,000 in a yearling and get $25,000, I’m happy,” he said. “May not seem like a big profit to you but it lets me keep playing the game.

“At this sale, I had $15,000 in one and got $75,000. I’m a small breeder. For me, that sale was a home run. I got 10 times the stud fee. But the one that brought $25,000 is also important because I don’t own him any more.

“I can go back to my banker and show what my crop brought, talk about who I want to breed my mares to next year,” he continued. “When Keeneland pays me, I pay the bank. If there is a little left over, I may buy a mare in November, I might replace some fencing or replace a piece of equipment.”

Sometimes we forget the yearling sales involve bringing a crop to market because the process is so different than selling, say, hogs or corn.

Some one looks at your corn and pays so much per ton. But the evaluation of a horse’s pedigree and conformation is much more subjective.

Rarely will any seller and/or consignor have a “perfect” sale: no outs; no injuries; no buy-backs; no misjudged reserve; no horses selling for less than the stud fee.

And, not every consignor will have a home run. Which is why the singles, doubles and triples are so critically important. The big buyer makes his purchases. The guy with the two-horse trailer leaves with it full.

And the breeder lives to breed another season.

 

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