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Posts posted by Chief Stipe
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Racing Minister Winston Peters has announced the government has appointed senior Australian racing e…
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Local police have been called in to investigate the circumstances that led to a race meeting at Kilm…
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Corey Brown is excited about his chances to win the Sydney Cup again - a race he had to win twice a …
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Single Gaze will miss her scheduled swansong, with the Group One-winning mare withdrawn from the Syd…
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As impressive as Hiyaam was in her front-running Vinery Stud Stakes win, it was what happened after …
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Mighty Conqueror will took to make it two from two in the Nuggets Final before old bro Young Conquer…
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Sydney Cup winner Gallante won't run again till he strikes a wet track, Hamilton trainer Graeme Roge…
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Gary Portelli has consigned She Will Reign's Oakleigh Plate run to the waste bin, but admits her mos…
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Seen the result - maybe the winner was the omen bet!
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Can't say ......yet!
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If it wins I'll make it video of the week!
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Well-bred youngster Lite My Cigar is in good order for his return to racing at Rotorua tomorrow.
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Sydney’s weather is playing against Danzdanzdance’s bid for glory in Saturday’s A$1 million Gr. 1 Au…
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$2.3m on four legs. Photo: Darryl Sherer
The colt of the year from the best family in the southern hemisphere is how Anthony Freedman described the $2.3m brother to Shoals which sold at the Inglis Australian Easter yearling sale on Wednesday.
Bidding opened on the Fastnet Rock colt, consigned by Arrowfield, at $500,000 and ended with Freedman, standing in the gateway to the right of auctioneer Jonathan D’Arcy, who described the colt as having 'the ultimate stallions page'.
Freedman trains Group I Myer Classic and Surround Stakes winner Shoals and said his knowledge of her was instrumental in him wanting to buy the colt out of The Broken Shore, a Sydney winning half-sister to Redoute’s Choice and Manhattan Rain.
“You’ve got to pay for these colts but knowing the family as I do I was very confident he was the right type,” Freedman said.
“Knowing her and having that sort of intel gave me more confidence, he’s not too big and I think he’s just a bigger version of her.
“I really only looked at him a couple of times but I’d seen enough to know he was the right horse,
"It’s a lot of money but it’s the best family in the southern hemisphere and colts like this are hard to get - for me he was the colt of the year,"
Freedman said he came to the sale intending to bid on the October 26 foaled colt but hoping to buy.
“I came here wanting to bid on him and buy him but you never really know until you get to the actual sale,” Freedman said.
“It all came together late - we still had a little bit left in the tank, I didn’t want to walk away without having a good crack at buying him.
“There’s a group of people we’d expect would be interested with some good clients in him as well but we’ll sort that out now we've got him.”
The colt was one of 22 yearlings at the sale to sell for $1m or more and makes a total of 31 to sell for seven figures in Australia and New Zealand this year.
At the conclusion of Book 1 of the 2018 Australian Easter yearling sale, the gross of $116,057,500 is second only to the 2008 Easter Yearling Sale.
The sale average finished at $347,478, slightly down on 2017, with a median of $250,000 and a clearance rate of 84 percent compared to 87 percent in 2017.
The leading vendor by gross was Arrowfield with $18,265,000 and the leading sire by gross was Snitzel with $21,685,000 at an average of $528,902 and seven to sell for $1m or more.
Shadwell Stud spent $6,140,000 to be the biggest spender ahead of the Hong Kong Jockey Club
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Englishman Harry Herbert is in Australia with high expectations for Libran in the Sydney Cup as the …
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Jockey Luke Currie's main objective will be to get Bring Me Roses settled early in the Australian Oa…
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Godolphin head trainer James Cummings is confident Alizee can add a second Group One to her record w…
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Nothing to do with me.
$2.3m on four legs.
Article Author
Sydney Cup
in Galloping Chat
Posted
The stats that matter – Sydney Cup weights
Greg Polson
12 April 2018What sort of a task does the 2016 Melbourne Cup Winner Almandin face in the $2 million Sydney Cup (3200m) with 57kg?
At first glance Almandin looks well placed as a last start Tancred Stakes winner, we know Lloyd Williams and his team have won three of the last 20 Cups, Almandin is proven at the two miles so there are plenty of ticks.
As always, it's back to the stats to evaluate the chances of the ruling favourite.
A total of 276 horses have started in the Cup over the last twenty years.
For the purpose of this article, I have categorised the weights into three categories, 57kg and above, 55-56.5Kg and less than 55kg and used a cut off starting price of $11 meaning we are only looking at horses the betting market perceives as having a strong winning chance.
Of those 22 horses have carried 57kg and above of which 17 have started at $10 or less for two winners, that’s a strike rate of 11.7 percent.
If we restrict the data to 57kg, the identical weight Almandin has been asked to carry on Saturday, the result is similar, nine runners carried 57kg with eight of the nine starting at $10 or less, (the remaining runner was a $12 chance). One win was recorded in this sample.
Compare these figures to the other weight categories.
Fifty horses were weighted in the 55-56.5kg weight range, 19 were at $10 or less producing six winners or 36 percent.
The remaining 204 carrying 55kg or less had 61 starters at less than $10 and produced 12 winners at 19.67 percent.
Make up your own mind but for me the 57kg is a significant test for Almandin.
Here’s the Sydney Cup winners for the last 20 years to help you find a winner.
Year
Horse
Trainer
Jockey
Barrier
Weight
SP
Track Condition
Start Prior
2017
POLARISATION
Charlie Appleby
Corey Brown
6
51.5kg
$6.50
Heavy (8)
4th Doncaster UK
2016
GALLANTE
Robert Hickmott
Kerrin McEvoy
11
51.5kg
$10
Soft (5)
3rd Manion Cup
2015
GRAND MARSHAL
Chris Waller
Mr Jim Cassidy
4
52kg
$41
Soft (7)
3rd Chairman's Handicap
2014
THE OFFER
Gai Waterhouse
Tommy Berry
8
55kg
$3.30
1st Chairman's Handicap
2013
MOURAYAN
Robert Hickmott
Hugh Bowman
2
58kg
$12
Good (3)
4th Chairman's Handicap
2012
NIWOT
Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Dwayne Dunn
2
55.5kg
$4.20
4th Tancred Stakes
2011
STAND TO GAIN
Chris Waller
Rod Quinn
4
53.5kg
$20
10th Chairman's Handicap
2010
JESSICABEEL
John O'Shea
Craig Newitt
10
52kg
$5
1st Chairman's Handicap
2009
ISTA KAREEM
Colin Little
Craig Williams
6
52kg
$6.50
4th Chairman's Handicap
2008
NO WINE NO SONG
Kevin Moses
Damien Oliver
8
55.5kg
$3.80
1st Chairman's Handicap
2007
GALLIC
Graeme Rogerson
Steven Arnold
1
56kg
$9
1st Adelaide Cup
2006
COUNTY TYRONE
Kris Lees
Mr Jim Cassidy
8
55.5kg
$15
8th Tancred Stakes
2005
MAHTOUM
Kim Waugh
Darren Beadman
10
52.5kg
$3.80
5th Tancred Stakes
2004
MAKYBE DIVA
David Hall
Glen Boss
8
55.5kg
$3.50
3rd Tancred Stakes
2003
HONOR BABE
Katrina Alexander
Kerrin McEvoy
8
53kg
$4
2nd Chairman's Handicap
2002
HENDERSON BAY
Neville McBurney
Darryl McLellan
8
54kg
$8.50
1st Chairman's Handicap
2001
MR. PRUDENT
George Hanlon
Corey Brown
7
50.5kg
$8.50
3rd Easter Cup
2000
STREAK
Robert Smerdon
Steven King
1
53.5kg
$9
4th VRC St Leger
1999
TIE THE KNOT
Guy Walter
Shane Dye
3
50.5kg
$3.70
2nd Australian Derby
1998
TIE THE KNOT
Guy Walter
Shane Dye
3
57kg
$1.85
1st JRA Plate