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Bit Of A Yarn

Walt

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Everything posted by Walt

  1. Cheers Jason. I don't feel I'm being personal with those involved. I know you love the game as I do but authenticity is critically important, especially on public elects. Had Wild Card been from another stable and Glenthorne not been such a noted front runner, I wouldn't have said anything.
  2. I respect your perspective Chief but I see it differently. Many horses don't enjoy being in the trail and having the leader dictate when and how. If leading is by far the best option for Glenthorne, why would he allow that option to be removed and replaced with control and outcome being in the hands of David Butcher? I maintain White would not have handed up without a meaningful battle if the race was a meaningful event and the horse wanting the front was not the out of form stablemate.
  3. Hey Brodie, I've read many of your posts over the years and as a rule, enjoy your input. I tip my hat to anyone that can consistently make money on the punt especially if that is due to your own knowledge base and homework. Chur. For me, it's a numbers game as much as anything else. When I was a young fella certain words and phrases invariably came with a tip. Bla bla is nailed down for today. Bla bla is trying today etc. Now I can tell a horse is nailed down and the race a priority without getting the bully. Just look at the stake and prestige of a race. On Jewels day for example you know that every horse in every race is nailed down and highly motivated to win. From there it comes down to ability, form and how you think the race will likely unfold. I don't think there was anything contrived between Butcher, White and Donnelly. Wild Card would likely have stayed happily in the one one trail had the parked horse not galloped. David Butcher is a quick thinker and decided the top was his best option. Glenthorne didn't just pull up and gift the lead to his stablemate but I feel that's a red herring. Butcher is a Cambridge man who knows the ability, form and race pattern of most horses in his area, especially his rivals. Glenthorne is a noted front runner. His charge Wild Card ran motherless last at it's previous attempt against Glenthorne but despite that he had a play for the top against a noted front runner. I find that telling. I also find it telling that White on the 1.70 leader that excels in front would surrender the lead and control under any circumstances. I feel very confident that had the race been a 100k feature race, he would never have handed up without throwing everything at his charge. He would also have been very aware the horse challenging him was in fact the stablemate. The moment he handed up was the exact same moment he lost the race. If you go back to his dominant Christmas Eve front running victory, you'd be shocked to see him hand up. The gentle approach White adopted in the home straight was also inappropriate on a 1.70 pop. He easily settled for second placing. Wasn't a good look to my eye.
  4. Always important to keep all your owners happy. I doubt the owners of Glenthorne will be that disappointed. They got another cheque in a nothing race and with the knowledge their horse will win decent dollars in future races. The owners of Wild Card will be smiling now after a previous lean run. Excellent result for the stable. Average races get my attention for a few reasons. The first is to learn about a horses ability and form so I know where to put my dollars when the higher value races arrive. I won't wager on these lesser races as I have no confidence the race matters enough to the owner / trainer to prioritize. That situation is further complicated when stables have multiple runners in a race and or there are multiple drivers from the same family engaged in said race. I was impressed by Glenthorne when it won at Cambridge on Christmas Eve 2021. He lead all the way and won for fun in good time. https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=294027&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE Anyone who watched that race would know for certain the best way to drive this horse if you wanted a result. It's last two starts resulted in beating the stablemate when leading all the way and running second to his stablemate also when leading. When I saw him engaged last night I paid attention. Having two stablemates in this average race didn't go unnoticed. The one thing you could say with confidence was that Glenthorne would be leading and very unlikely to hand up.....except of course if / when a stablemate came calling. He started at $1.70 so many eyes would be on him. I was shocked to see Glenthorne handing up the premium spot in front when history had proven that to be the best place for the horse to be. The runner he gave the lead away to was his out of form stablemate Wild Card driven by David Butcher. It should be pointed out that the previous time the two horses met, Glenthorne won from the front and Wild Card finished last. Prior to handing up here, it "appeared" that Butcher had something to say to White prior to taking the lead. https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=295205&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE I also question the vigour or lack thereof White showed on Glenthorne in the home straight. It looked perfunctory to my eye. My two questions. 1) Would White have gifted the lead away had Wild Card not been his stablemate? 2) Would White have shown more vigour in the home straight on the $1.70 fav had the horse in front of him not been his stablemate? The only conclusion I could arrive at here was this race was bereft of authenticity from Glenthorne and White. When the alleged Stewards asked their perfunctory question, this was stated. "WILD CARD - when questioned regarding the improved performance Trainer A Donnelly stated that the gelding had been racing without much luck in recent starts and had been able to dictate terms in tonight's event" Haha....oh the irony. Of course, no questions asked of the $1.70 runner up. Looking forward to the return of authentic racing.
  5. Walt

    Hawera

    I won't be betting as this meeting for a list of reasons. Biggest reason being the big question mark of the motivation for horses / trainers to give 100%. I've seen thousands of these meetings over the years that for a percentage of runners, it's little more than trials....with some pocket money thrown in. Having said that, there is one stable / driver combination that is screaming out "WINNER". David Butcher. R2 # 3 CAULFIELD. I'm confident this horses first two runs were treated as little more than trials / educational runs. That is despite the horse starting hot fav. I'm feel certain had the driver been more motivated in it's first two runs, the horse would have enjoyed bigger paydays. Coincidently, the winning driver in the horses first two runs was David Butcher's son Benjamin. The Stewards were looking in Caulfield's second placing at the last Hawera meeting when Butchers drive in the home straight was very quiet only to then be narrowly beaten late. The investigation was adjourned to the second day of the meeting but that day was abandoned. I'm unsure if there was ever a result and or if that result was predictably another free pass. One thing for certain, Butcher will be very aware his drive will be watched closely today by the same Stewards and a few frustrated punters. I'm confident the horse will not be driven vigorously. That would only put handcuffs on himself. Having said that, I feel the horse has the measure of this field and could win that race with the right run without having to give it a wake up call. If I was betting I'd take the shorts all day. I should also point out for interest purposes of course, there are no other family members driving in the race. R3 # 5 ALCIPPE'S DELIGHT. Now trained by David Butcher. The horse was a solid enough second at it's last start and there is not a lot of depth in this field. The main reason I think it will win today is due to being so confident Caulfield will win the previous race. I subscribe to the theory that if the stable / driver is in winning form, pay close attention to all stable runners on that day. Once again, no other family members driving in this race. R5 # 1 CLAUDIA SCHIFFER. Trained and driven again by David Butcher. Horse had a poor draw on a slushy track last start but finished faster than anything else in the race. Should enjoy the firmer footing today from the ace draw here. Didn't have all favours last time she raced at Hawera from the same draw. She's no star but with the stable / driver likely winning with it's two earlier runners, this mare should make it a treble of wins. Having said that, I'm not as confident as I am with the two stablemates. If I was betting I'd see the 1.35 for a place as money for old rope especially if the stable performs today how I feel sure it will.
  6. Walt

    NZ Breeders G1

    Very difficult to read your perspective hunterthepunter and not think of horses like The Bru Czar, Dillon Dean and Franco Ice. They were all great horses that usually came off second best going up against a machine.
  7. Walt

    NZ Breeders G1

    Davis, I take on board your perspective which I don't disagree with. My input was more about the dynamic we have all become familiar with. One stable having multiple runners in G1 races and invariably not only winning most of them especially in the 2 and 3 year old classics but also filling the placings. Not only is it rare for the All Stars not to win the races that matter most, it's very unusual for them to have no luck at all and be an also ran. I must declare my hand here and admit I'd rather see 10 people win 1 million dollars each in the lotto rather than 1 person win 10 million and the others getting squat. Maybe I'm a closet Socialist
  8. Walt

    NZ Breeders G1

    Hey Gammalite, I think for many punters their first experience in the game was the Melbourne Cup. For me it was the NZ Trotting Cup. The first I can remember was Arapaho winning for Jack Smolenski in 1973 beating Globe Bay and Young Quinn. It's just a race you want to be part of and remember it more than any other race. Lord Module winning it in 1979 like Cecil Devine had just found the turbo boost switch. Hands Down narrowly beating Delightful Lady in 1980 after a stirring duel. Armalight doing the unthinkable in 1981. When most were expecting her to wave the white flag she left them standing and won by a cricket pitch. Similar situation the following year with Bonnies Chance. Aussie raider Steel Jaw winning in 83 had an epic wow head shaking about it. Borana winning at huge odds for Peter Jones after spending his earlier career with the Shands. The win of the ill fated Inky Lord in 1989 was incredible and should never have happened. Terror to Love's third cup in 2013 was staggering. Adore Me the following year was also very special. I've left out many epic winners. It will always be "The Race" for me but from a punters perspective it just doesn't have the same conquering Everest magic feel about it any more. I'd put that down to the handicapping, a dwindling audience and the domination one stable have had in recent years. I've enjoyed the achievements of the Dunn's, Telfar's, Ray Green, several others and young trainers like Regan Todd etc. I'm sure the unintended consequence of the All Stars dominance has been some other trainers who are in a position to have lifting their level up a notch. When the result is not a fait accompli, the amount of excitement and anticipation in that event raises to a much higher level. I feel that has been mostly absent in recent years. I hope that doesn't sound like tall poppy bashing as that's not my intent.
  9. I can't remember the last time I enjoyed watching a race as much as I did here. I'm not talking via my pocket either as I thought Belle of Montana was a great place bet from the pole. Something clearly amiss with Belle of Montana. I admire the All Stars machine and how they've taken harness racing to another level. Having said that, I don't see it as a positive when the same stable and often the same sets of owners dominate the major races regardless of how much they put into the game. One of my pet hates is stables having multiple contenders in the same race. I think most of us have all seen very friendly lead changes when under normal circumstances they'd rather hit their own thumb with a hammer than hand up. It's such a huge advantage to know the leader will hand up to you when you come calling. Others don't have that luxury. If they make a play for the front and the leader keeps them posted, it's invariably game over for them. I thought the Breeders had the hallmarks of a very exciting race. It was a G1 worth nice money and the huge increase in broodmare value to win or place in it. The All Stars have had a mortgage on NZ G1's in recent years. I wouldn't blame other connections if they were feeling somewhat disillusioned when it all just becomes the same old same old. On paper Better Twist looked the winner and the very short odds reflected that but this race looked like it may just be an actual race than a procession. Better Twist had no stablemate to give her a cart up or work the leader. She had no stablemate to softly hand up to her or at least give her cover. She'd have to do it all on her own against opposition that all wanted to be part of the race. She's probably good enough to do that on her day. The result was a very exciting race. Congratulations especially to Regan Todd and Robbie Close. The first of many G1's I'm sure. The race did more to remind me why I love this game than any other race I've watched in years....and my wager ran down the track. I can't wait for more of the same. https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=290901&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE
  10. Walt

    Caulfield

    I didn't expect him to whip the horse at all. I also don't consider any strike of the sulky or dust sheet to be whipping. What I expected was something more than a couple of gentle late perfunctory wrist movements especially when you are a real hope of winning the race. I believe a driver of David's considerable experience must have been aware there was a horse leveling up to him out wide and he was in danger of being narrowly beaten. I'm also sure he would have known the colours of his rivals including those of the horse that got up late and beat him narrowly .....driven by his son. My five decades of watching harness racing in NZ, Australia, the United States and Canada tell me that had David got even a little authentic in the home straight, Caulfield as a dominant favourite would have very likely won race 4 at Hawera yesterday. If there was a genuine reason Caulfield was driven so quietly in the home straight when victory was seemingly his for the taking, then I will promptly apologize for my input here but if it is as I suspect, a blatant example of failing to obtain the best possible placing, I'd hope a well deserved lengthy suspension is forthcoming.
  11. Walt

    Caulfield

    Hey Gammalite, With a user name like yours it would make sense you had a nibble. Hot fav the stewards will gift another free pass. I'm sure David wanted to win the race but thinking of the horse long term appeared to be a bigger priority. I can understand that but isn't what trials and workouts are for? I'm sure it's just a coincidence that when he's been beaten twice with quiet drives, it was his son that beat him both times. Not the best look in a sport where authenticity and integrity are so important. Wouldn't it be ironic to say the least if the horse was sold to Australia and went on to be another Smoken Up.
  12. Walt

    Caulfield

    Hi folks, Long time harness enthusiast signing in. Greetings. For many years I was a keen weekly punter but several years ago I witnessed a pattern that I didn't enjoy so I reserved my betting only for the Premier days. The pattern I witnessed was stables using tote races as trials and clearly not doing all they could to achieve the best possible placing. The aspect that concerned me most and destroyed my confidence and betting enjoyment was the fact Stipes seemingly condoned what was unfolding on most race days. They accepted what appeared to be very weak explanations. Unsure if this was due to favouritism, not wanting to undermine the game or the cases in front of them being in the too hard to prove basket. High profile drivers especially were invariably gifted a free pass. It didn't surprise to see senior horseman appearing in the room to help obtain a free pass for a much less experienced driver associated with their stable. I felt there were serious question marks over the driving of the horse High Flying Harry in a race when it appeared the horse was gifted a perfect opportunity to obtain a better result but didn't take that opportunity. Most of us accept the racing career of horses are managed. If a horse wins a race at the wrong time for example, it can end up being a negative outcome especially if it has another race or races on it's radar. These issues I speak of are like rocking horse poo on Premier race days which is exactly why I only wager there these days. I've respected the training and driving of the Butcher family for many years. I felt John was a master conditioner of a horse well prior to the days of Abdias and co. David was and still is a superb driver. Where things got murky for me was when you have multiple family members driving against each other in the same races. Even if everything is kosha, there is so much scope for little things to happen during a race that can ultimately become a major factor in the outcome of that race. I've witnessed many hundreds of examples over the years that were the main reason I reserved my wagering for only the big days. This is not meant as a slur against the fine Butcher family but I just didn't have the confidence needed when they are racing against each other in run of the mill races. That is most definitely not the case in feature races. No favours on show there. I watched the horse Caulfield, trained and driven by David Butcher have it's first race on January the 20th at Cambridge. I really like the look of the horse and believe it will win many races. I noted two of David's sons Benjamin and Zachary driving in the same race so watched their drives also. After watching races for 50 plus years I felt confident Caulfield was going best of all at the 300 and should win. I noticed the horse didn't pull out to let him down until much later than I expected. Had he pulled out earlier I'm certain he would have at the very least finished much closer to the winner which was driven by his son Benjamin. The ground Caulfield made up over the last 75 metres was impressive which only added further weight to the prospect that it had been a fairly soft drive almost the equivalent of a trial. https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=293774&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE With that in mind I was especially interested in how it ran in it's next start which was yesterday at Hawera. Again the horse carried a lot of public support. Again I noted one of David's rivals was driven by his son Benjamin. Caulfied had a relatively easy run in front and appeared to have no steering or gear issues. He looked to have the race at his mercy turning in. I was expecting to see David get serious and let the horse down but that never occurred. He sat as quiet as a church mouse apart from a couple of VERY quiet perfunctory reminders to the horse. In the mean time David's son Benjamin was able to get his drive that had done far more work, up and win. Caulfield looked to my eye like he could go around again. It was another very soft quiet drive where the main benefactor was son Benjamin. I'd expect that in a trial, not a tote race. If this horse is driven like that in every race start from now on including much higher value races then fair enough but if David suddenly starts being vigorous in any future races with Caulfield, very serious questions need to be asked about these two highlighted races for the integrity of the game. I sincerely feel anyone foolish enough to have wagered on Caulfield to win his first two starts will have just cause to feel aggrieved. https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=293949&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE
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