Walt

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/racing/128710299/smiles-like-jacinda--not-any-more-harness-racer-owners-ordered-to-change-horses-name?dicbo=v2-f23c2c3eb27c32df8e0eaa5426f47309

I've seen some very good horses over the years that had a gait like a dromedary. I may be getting confused but didn't the top trotter Stig have a very ungamely action? I've seen numerous but memory is not what it was. Funny you mention Dick Caskey with Torle. I remember the horse well. She was out of Torpi a Caskey mare. Then a few years later Toris arrived on the scene also out of Torpi. Torle won 6 and Toris 5. Peter Shand was the usual driver of Toris. I backed Toris in all 5 of his wins after being given the heads up leading into raceday. He won a double at a long weekend meeting. Memory lane stuff.

I did wonder about his gait Brodie but I put it down to his size etc rather than being sore. I recall some big horses doing great things on the track. I've looked at the gait of many trotters and pacers over the years and thought they looked like they could blow to bits at any moment but they still went on to win many races. Will be an interesting watch in upcoming months. As an aside, did you get on Over and Under in the first at Addington? Anyone who saw his trial would have been on board. Stable is in form so looked the winner and so it proved. May win a couple more at short notice.

We can all see the same thing differently to fit our perspective. Some may minimize the win of FM while others see it differently. FM again began beautifully from the stand which will be a huge asset to him along the way especially in Cup races should he make it that far. I do enjoy the way he monsters around the field. That gives him a huge advantage to control a race either from the top or with a sit. He did work to get past Carana who he gave away 10 metres to at the start. Carana seems a decent enough horse who then smoked his pipe behind FM who was worked over by the Dunn trained Sam's Town. Carana couldn't get past FM in the run home who was entitled to be tired late but still dug deep to win. That determination will serve him well but if he's going to keep on winning he won't need gut busters like that every time he goes to the races. Ran home in 57 which was solid enough after working on a slushy track. There was a track bias but that didn't make anything easier for him. I don't believe the slushy track suited him either any more than other runners. He is more than a grass tracker. He looks a horse that is equally comfortable on both surfaces but only time will prove that statement right or wrong. Will be interesting to see where he goes next and what their plans are with the horse. https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=97F82741-1F33-49C8-AA19-74650E842750&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

Hey Gammalite, I'm not seriously saying he'd beat any of the Blue Army in the NZ Cup. If FM made the cup field he'd need to go an extended unbeaten run. Even if he was able to do that he'd still start at long odds. I enjoy math's and gambling. Truth be known, with FM only being a 3 race winner it would be a miracle if he even made the field. Because I rate him highly, if the TAB offered me 300-1 on him to win the Cup today, I'd happily put a couple of hundred each way on him and then cash out on half my wagers when he starts at 25-1 and ride out the rest. Still be a very nice earner. You will know about the glorious uncertainty of sport. I'm now in danger of looking like a fool at about 6.55 pm tonight

Debate is healthy Brodie. I also put value on sectional and overall times but feel when a winning horse is only controlling the final 200 metres of the race the time is virtually irrelevant. FM's first run and with no money on him was in March 2021 when trained by Norm Leacock-Jones? Ran ok for third but did work a bit. The winner was a Dunn horse who enjoyed the trail. Seems a much stronger horse when he reappeared a year later for a new trainer at Methven. His main opposition tonight is the John Hay trained runner that goes well and ran home in better than 56 last start but I feel FM has him covered despite giving away 10 metres. FM is a good standing start horse so I feel it's just a matter of time before he comes calling. Pending on the track condition he will run home in much better than 59. Even if he does get beat tonight, I stand by my opinion that he is a cup class horse in the making. You don't win first up like he did at Methven by fluke especially with a flood of money on.

I respect your judgment Brodie but disagree. Seems we read races differently. FM didn't set the pace at Rangiora so had little control over the overall time. The way he took the lead turning in was nice. It said "this race is mine, thanks for coming". As a punter, I crave that look Not sure how much he had left at the end but seemed comfortable enough. No extra $$ for winning by a bigger margin and we don't know how nailed down he was for that fairly ordinary race. Just looked like a horse comfortably going through the grades. He seems to be being managed well. Can't keep peaking them if you want a longish campaign? https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=27334517-DC5A-407A-A2DF-60B193157CCA&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

No problem having a different perspective Brodie. It's always easy to be wise after the event so we've both made a big call here. The more people that underestimate the ability of FM, the better price he will pay. No he hasn't beaten much but his method is what got my attention. The link Chief put up highlighted a horse with a lot of bottom but it was his first up win at Methven in early March that really got my attention. Was punted like he was past the post. Began beautifully from a difficult draw. Worked but took the lead as he liked on the big Mt Harding track. Was never going to get beaten and won for fun. Not many can do that first up after a spell at Methven. If we assume natural improvement, he's only going to get better. Seems a natural Cup horse in the making to my eye. Time will tell. I may be a year early but ........... https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=5F2157BE-7ECC-478A-A5A1-E1C3803848C5&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE I wonder what the TAB would offer me today? 200-1 ? 500-1? Futures Winner-IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup Book closes 2022-11-08T14:00:00+13:00 Self Assured2.00 Copy That6.00 Spankem7.50 South Coast Arden9.00 Krug13.00 Akuta15.00 Pembrook Playboy21.00 Hot And Treacherous26.00 Cranbourne31.00 Bettor Twist34.00 Alta Wiseguy41.00 B D Joe41.00 Shan Noble41.00 Classie Brigade51.00 Franco Indie51.00 Kango51.00 The Falcon51.00 Laver67.00 Bad To The Bone101 Christianshavtime101 Corravalley Star101 Di Caprio101 Henry Hubert101 Steel The Show101 Terry101 Samhara151 Taipo151

I appreciate Franco Marek has only won 3 races but the horse clearly has a stack of ability and a lot in the tank to call on. ....but Could we see him in a big two mile race on the second Tuesday in November five months away?

I saw it being promoted but have mixed feelings. The concept is very good.....but the timing is not. People interested in harness racing are more likely to be otherwise occupied on Friday nights with racing and sports. Thursday night would be a much better fit to my eye. Anything that does not include Craig Thompson would be a plus. I suspect many have reached saturation point with Craig. He's incredibly boring and not what harness racing needs if they want the attention of current punters let alone stimulating new people into the game.

Probably all of the above Brodie. I remember comparing going to the casino with the track. Then imagine someone saying you can only wager for 6 mins an hour at the casino and then spend the other 54 minutes waiting around. I think the casino would pretty quickly lose most of it's customers. Beer was considered a working mans drink by many yet the price you were charged on course didn't reflect that. Also usually overcharged for food. The old chips or hot dogs don't have the same appeal they did in the 1970's. There is still an atmosphere on track at decent meetings but not so much for the lesser meetings. People will still go on track to see a hyped up top liner going around. Racing is good but not good enough in my opinion to charge people to go on course unless it's Cup Day. If you started charging customers to go into the local TAB to bet, the places would be empty. There is so much competition around for your entertainment $$ these days the game needs to be lifted. That is even more so with the next generations of punters.

Maori's Idol was a super trotter as was Knight Pistol. I was at Addington when Scotch Notch won the Dominion in 83. I had Sir Castleton who beat her, Basil Dean and About Now (25 wins) a week earlier and just started to smile when I noticed the great Australian mare coming. You don't mind getting beat so much when the winner is from the top drawer as she was. Normally when you saw Basil Dean leading clearly turning in it was all over.

When I first got in the game, Easton Light was top of the tree. He won 36 races including his last win as a 13 year old in 1978. Nigel Craig was also a big deal. He won 26 races and broke 2 mins for the mile. Petite Evander was a great mare around the same time. She won 21 races and ran 1.58 in the States. Scotch Tar is still talked about despite his last race being in 1983. He won 29 races and had a mile time of 1.58. One of the lasting memories of this outstanding trotter was him racing against the pacers several times including in the Show Day FFA. http://www.hof.co.nz/Scotch-Tar.htm The Bonnie mare Tussle was all the rage for a couple of seasons. She won 36 races including 3 as a 12 year old in 1999. As good as she was, she wouldn't have been able to live with Sundees Son on the track. Sundon won 27 races races including 11 straight as a 2 year old. His outstanding deeds on the track have been eclipsed by his deeds as a sire. Call Me Now was superb in the 1990's winning 24. David Moss or Monster Moss as he was sometimes called won 31 races including 6 as an 11 year old in 1995. Pride of Petite was a wonderful mare winning 35 races, the last as an 11 year old in 1999. Idle Scott the so called iron horse for Dave Gibbons won 46 races often off long marks. His last victory was at his favourite hunting ground Alex Park as a 13 year old in 1997. Diamond Field was superb winning 33. What can you say about the great Lyell Creek? He won an incredible 56 races. His last two as an 11 year old in 2005. Who could forget his Rowe Cup victory in 2004? He won in Sweden, Canada and the US. He is clearly the benchmark of greatness. Take A Moment was superb winning 39 races. He also won a mile in 1.57. Stig was a top trotter winning 23. I Can Doosit was a magnificent mare winning 36 including a mile in 1.55. Speeding Spur was a beauty winning 28. Basil Dean, No Response and Sir Castleton were personal favs winning 92 races between them. Sir Castleton winning 44. In my rankings, I have Sundee Son now just ahead of Lyell Creek but haven't we been blessed with some super trotters over the years. Apologies to any topliners I've overlooked on my list.

I'm confident you are very aware that "contrived results" occur very often in horse racing. That's a fact. It's also a fact that virtually nobody involved in "contrived results" ever admit their involvement. In this life, people do all sorts of things in their quest for $$. That situation is amplified in horse racing when other factors come into play such as increased costs and decreased returns. Harness Racing is not beyond reproach and neither are industry participants. Not sure why you choose to take the high moral ground about working bloody hard and loving your horses. I never questioned that aspect. I also work bloody hard and love my horses but that is not relevant here. Stables have been using their numerical advantage to give the edge over rivals for many decades. One of NZ's most respected Harness names were extremely well known for this. There are many ways a stable runner can assist a stablemate in a race. Some are obvious while others are subtle. One subtle action can make the difference of a stablemate winning or not winning a race. You betting or not betting is 100% irrelevant. You have many owners and a percentage of those owners will be punters. That is the same situation with virtually all stables. That is not a slur on your good name. It's just a matter of fact. Here are some more facts. Please correct me if I err. Loyalist was the target of some inspired wagering. Loyalist prefers the pace on in his races. No money came for Bettorlini. Rick May is not regarded as an especially aggressive driver. Rick is however known by most in the game as a superb driver who can time his run to perfection. Bettorlini had to work to initially get the front. She then had to hold out a sustained challenge for a quarter from hot fav Peraki Reactor. Peraki Reactor was expected to be in the finish so trailing that runner would likely have been a prudent race tactic. After the first quarter mile had been run it was very unlikely that neither Peraki Reactor or Bettorlini would be involved in the finish. Loyalist on the other hand would have been suited by what unfolded and the main benefactor in the field. Loyalist went on to win the race very easily. Bettorlini finished 13th of 13 some 50 lengths from her stablemate. Peraki Reactor unsurprisingly didn't fare much better. Despite these alleged facts, you believe it's unfair and unreasonable to ask questions? I've been a supporter of your stable for many years. You are to be commended for your results. The manner in which your stable runners are conditioned is reflected in your results. Young Ben is a credit to you and is improving all the time. I was not a supporter of his earlier driving style but he's clearly working hard to improve. I sincerely believe no other driver in NZ would have achieved better results with the outstanding Muscle Mountain than Ben has. Happy to give praise and support when appropriate......but also comfortable to ask "reasonable" questions when I feel they are appropriate.

I had a call lunch time yesterday from an old mate who is almost always on the money when he sends me an alert. He tells me, R10 @ Rangiora. The "Hope" stable. Watch the betting and watch the race. I see Peraki Reactor was drawn favourably after running a slashing race last time out. Will be driven by Tim Williams who knows how to rate a horse better than most. On paper he looks a serious contender and a very good runner to hand up to and trail. Rick May is a superb driver. His magnificent record is proof of that. Whenever I hear critiques of Rick it's that he is at times not vigourous enough. He was driving the Hope trained Bettorlini who looked a good chance of leading and handing up to Peraki Reactor based on the draws and previous racing patters of both horses. I saw Bettorlini lead all the way and win for John Dunn on the 20th of March at The Mot so know she can lead and win. The second of the Hope runners was Loyalist. He ran 13th of 15 also at Rangiora at his previous start at Rangiora a week earlier. He was 7 lengths + behind Hazer. Loyalist ran the 2600 metres in 3.20. Most who have seen Loyalist go around appreciate he prefers the pace on in his races. The race caller even stated that in his call. The first surprise for me was seeing Loyalist drop in the fixed odds market from 8 to 5. I immediately made the connection with my midday phone call. Bettorlini had designs on the front. No surprise there but the fact Rick May refused to hand up to a very determined hot fav Peraki Reactor was a shock. I can't recall the last time I saw Rick May engaged in a relentless duel for the front. You'd have more success finding Rocking Horse Poo finding a race he'd driven a mare in this manner. At that moment I made a few conclusions. Neither Peraki Reactor or Bettorlini had any chance at al of being in the finish after that sort of burn. Loyalist on the other hand would be loving it. You might say the race was made to order for him. The rest of the race contained no surprises. Loyalist won the race very easily by 3+ lengths. His winning time was 3.12 some 8 seconds faster than he ran 7 days prior. Bettorlini ran 13th of 13 over 50 lengths behind the winner, stablemate Loyalist. Peraki Reactor ran 11th of 13 some 38 lengths behind Loyalist. Stewards asked Rick May about his drive on Bettorlini but gifted him a free pass. Race 10 RANGIORA HRC RACING AGAIN MAY 22 MOBILE PACE Show Video BETTORLINI - weakened from the 600 metres. When questioned regarding the performance driver R May advised the mare had worked hard in the early stages to hold the lead and then raced lethargically after being positioned in the trail near the 1500 metres. A post-race veterinary examination revealed no abnormalities. Was Bettorlini driven in a manner where she could gain the best possible placing? Some may say Bettorlini was at least VERY helpful to her stablemate. The big question of course. Was what unfolded, contrived ? https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=296784&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

All punters have their red letter days and we've also all had our share of punting nightmares. The trick is to maximize our good days and minimalize the bad. The fact the TAB impose restrictions on your betting speaks to the fact you win more than you lose. I tip my hat to any punter who wins long term year in year out. Well done on that score! I got fed up betting on low grade meetings many years ago. So many things hidden from view. Dramatic form turn arounds. Horses being driven in a manner where winning was very obviously not a priority etc etc. I've seen many such races that are not much better than glorified trials. I don't mind losing if it's on merit but when you're left shaking your head after races, it's time to put the cue back in the rack. Fact is, with our grading system, winning races can be a negative outcome resulting in connections running out of options very quickly. Mark Jones several years ago spoke honestly about this much to the disapproval of some in the industry. I'm certain you're aware of his statements. Here's one piece I dug up. http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/8895759/NZ-harness-racing-handicapping-system-flawed The way I try and stack the odds in my favour is by only wagering on sought after races on Premier days / nights. The form and ability in those races is exposed. We know the horse will be nailed down fitness wise and with the connections prioritizing said race. Then it comes down to the draw, what you anticipate the race pattern will be, the form of the trainer / driver, it's rivals and the odds. I believe you'd need to be a very smart cookie or very lucky to consistently win off low grade racing regardless of how much homework you do. The fact that's your preferred race to wager on is perplexing to me. I get that the odds are more appealing than those of say a red hotter All Star in an elite race but I can't see how that works as a long term betting strategy. My assumption was that you wager large place bets. 2k for a place on a $1.40 place dividend for example nets you a tidy $800 profit with lesser risk. I have my doubts there as 2k on a low grade race punt would red flag your wager regardless if it was tote of fixed. Putting 2k on a nothing race would also make me very uncomfortable. Then there is the very short odds aspect. I've read you talking negatively about shorties and them being a turn off. As a result, I rule this wager out as your betting strategy. I'm not asking you to confirm how you wager and the amounts but I'm interested in a few aspects. Does perceived "value" play an important role? If so, how do you ascertain what is value in a low grade race? Do you punt every week? On an average betting day, would you wager on less than three runners at a meeting or more? Does math play an important role in your calculations? Would you wager on a first starter? Do you prefer trotters over pacers? Do you wager on standing start races? Do you follow stables and or drivers? Are there any NZ tracks you won't punt on? Do you punt on rain effected tracks? Cheers, Walt.

Then it had 3 months between races. @Walt you didn't highlight the trial and workout it had in between her two starts. 5th in the trial and 1st in its workout. In the trial it got shuffled back to last after running 3 deep on the pegs and the winner ran the last 400m in 27. It can be excused for not running home in 26 or quicker surely? Especially given the fact it probably had a bit of a let up after its first start and would have been lacking race fitness. If I was you I'd have a sneaky fiver on The Fiery Countess next start. My point was it was a remarkable training performance. The trial you referred to where the winner ran it's last half in 27 was more of the same from the filly. Did nothing in the run and ran a clear last. I didn't expect her to run home in 26. I would however have expected her to show something given she came out and won well after a tough run 12 days later. I was unaware she had won a workout. That would have got my attention had I seen it. I don't wager on lesser meetings these days but I do follow them for future reference so not talking via my pocket. Speaking of punting. Back in the day, I have wagered more on exotic bets such as trebles and trifecta's to avoid red flagging a horse I was confident of a solid run with at odds in a low grade meeting. Perhaps Brodie is correct in the filly appreciating the grass. As for The Fiery Countess. She got my eye at Addington. Obviously has inherited some of the family ability to be attracting such solid support. Will keep an eye on her.

First trial: 21/July 2021. Ran 9th of 9. Drawn 1 but couldn't get out of her own way. Second trial. 22nd December 2021. Ran 4th of 7. First race start 1st January 2022. Ran 11th of 13. Very ordinary. Warning put on the filly. Trials again 12 days ago on the 15th March. Ran 5th of 5 despite doing zero in the run, she ran a clear last. Comes out today. Sits parked for a fair portion of the race. Stages a stirring home straight duel with another runner with big margins back to the rest. Still giving plenty at the finish where she was still going better than every other runner in field despite doing a lot more work. Remarkable training performance.

7. Trot the whole way.....and win lol lol lol

Apart from the surface. https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=295003&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=295866&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=293235&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

Hey John, I'm a believer in free speech but your input here reflects badly on only one person. You. I dislike Ardern's faux smiles, upbeat stance even when the house is on fire in the background and lack of progress in most areas, especially the diabolical inequity in housing. It particular irks me that her way of dealing with the housing crisis is to put a person in charge of it who shouldn't be in charge of a pet hamster. This unfolded after her first housing minister proved to be utterly inept resulting in a "reset". Ardern remains upbeat despite the reset that saw housing to go from really bad to diabolically bad. I'm obviously not a supporter. We fortunately live in a democracy. Ardern is the PM due to Labour getting enough votes. If you want to blame kiwi's for that then fair enough but would you call them "toothy pigs" for exercising their democratic right? How about those involved in the National Party? The shocking state of that party, the people within it and the direction they were headed resulted in big numbers of people not voting for them. I haven't seen you referring to anyone in the National Party as a "toothy pig". I don't know if you have a wife or partner or sisters, daughters, granddaughters etc but I do know you'll have a mother. How would you feel about about some online zero mouthing off about your mother as a "toothy pig"? If you have a wife or daughters how would you feel about some brave soul attacking them very personally online? Many of us have heard the rumours about Ardern's partner. You'll know that rumours attract attention in the same way a turd attracts flies. That is even more so if you have contempt for the partner of the person the rumour is about. I loath troglodytes that behave in this way. The family of beautiful Charlotte Dawson found out about just how damaging online trolls can be back in 2014. Spreading damaging rumours that almost certainly have zero substance is beneath any man of decent character. If however a man made an error along the way in life, who are you to judge? Have you made errors in your life? Different people have told me about C.C. How he's allegedly wearing an ankle bracelet as he's before the courts on serious charges bla bla. This was apparently the reason their wedding was called off and hasn't been rescheduled. I didn't believe it for a second and neither would anyone else with a brain bigger than a sultana. Common sense said it was total BS. If it was correct it would be all over the BBC, CNN and every TV news network on the planet. It would stop being a rumour after about 30 seconds. You couldn't possibly have a wedding with many guests during the Omicron surge so cancelling the big day was the ONLY option. Rescheduling would be virtually impossible at this time when there are so many logistics involved and we don't know what the landscape will look like after Omicron has done it's damage. If my wedding had to be cancelled I'd want to make certain the next date with all the implications was not also cancelled. I'd want Omicron to be a memory before putting my wedding back on the table. That situation would be even more so if I was busing trying to run a country at the time. The thing about this I find most perplexing is that the eggplants spreading this rumour couldn't work this out for themselves. How can people be so far king stupid? That aside, if their union has been under so much pressure their relationship is now on shakey ground, who could blame them? Relationships / marriages end every day. I'm on my second marriage and my first wife and our marriage was never put under the same challenges the PM's has been subjected to. So Grant Robertson is a "fat dumpy queer"? He'd likely be the first to admit he is carrying extra weight but has that impacted on his role as finance minister? Gerry Brownlee from down your way is obviously morbidly obese. Any thoughts there or is weight only an issue if the person is in the "wrong' party or is the fact he's a homosexual the big issue for you? Has that negatively impacted on his ability as Minister of Finance? Bill English was once the Minister of Finance. While in that role and at the exact time he was telling Kiwi's there was no money in the kitty and to tighten their belts, he was double dipping on his Wellington property to the tune of $900 each and every week. An epic rort set up for Politicians to plunder even more tax payer funds. Last I heard, Bill was a happily married man with a lovely wife. Surely the time for ridiculing people due to their sexual orientation is over John? We aren't Neanderthals....are we? I'm sure other people suffering from homophobia refused on principal to accept any Covid support for themselves, their loved ones and their business during this pandemic. You will know who Alan Turing is. How many lives did he save in the 1940's by helping end the war? 5 million? 10 Million? I'm sure as a patriotic Kiwi you felt "pride' when Emma Twigg won Gold at the 2020 Tokoyo Olympics. I sure did. Mind you, I also think Alan Turing was a genuine hero and that Grant Roberson comes across as a decent and respectful good guy. Imagine if adults strongly attacking others online made spelling errors themselves that my 12 year old grandchildren would be embarrassed to make? How stupid would that make them look while they are harshly judging others? We all make blunders along the way John and they are just part of the blunders in plain view. Imagine of all your peccadillo's were presented to the world for judgment. That reminds me of a 1910 quote from Theodore Roosevelt. "It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." Live and let live bro.

Brodie and John, You're both smart enough to know the clear difference between an "adverse event after taking a vaccine" and a "side effect of the vaccine". It's really important to give the full story rather than just cherry pick the parts that suit your argument. "it is important first to understand the difference between an “adverse event” and a “side effect”. The term “adverse event” describes any health problem that occurs after vaccination, regardless of whether the vaccine caused it. For example, a toothache in someone who received a vaccine would be considered an adverse event. However, a toothache can’t be attributed to vaccination. In contrast, the term “side effect” refers only to adverse events causally linked to the vaccine, such as an allergic reaction to a vaccine ingredient" https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/pfizers-confidential-document-shows-adverse-events-reported-following-vaccination-it-doesnt-demonstrate-vaccine-caused-events-or-is-unsafe/?fbclid=IwAR0xLuBXBXM9W3rMyjhoHNdrpqXjGH7tDYV7yRS7wUJgmbEgaKsVRQbrZNU

Brodie, I'm not a supporter of Pfizer. Never will be. I trust them in equal amounts to a $2 Shop Gold Rolex Watch. There is a TV Network in the States that has their News sponsored by Pfizer....their Sports News is sponsored by Pfizer, their weather is bought to you by Pfizer etc etc. They see no conflict of interest. A complete shock of course that TV Network is never critical of Pfizer. That aside, I do trust vaccines and the need for them. I respect you don't for your own reasons but you should put you contempt for Ardern and Pfizer to one side when understanding the need for a vaccine and it's efficacy. There are many thousands of pieces online stating alleged facts about the vaccine and sadly, many readers are unwilling to delve into the motivation involved of the writer. I'm a strong believer in Science. I don't believe in God. Brian Tamaki is anti vaccine, anti vaccine mandates, anti lockdowns.......but context is important. He and his believers adamantly believe the Kaikoura Earthquakes were caused by God expressing his anger at Homosexuality. Any person who believes that complete BS and expresses it to media outlets should never be taken seriously by anyone ever again. .... yet his followers are certain he couldn't possibly be wrong with his stance. Many in the anti-vax brigade recognize that owning being anti-vax is akin to admitting they are a life member of the flat earth society so they either say they are not anti-vax or they are anti-mandate. They are one and the same. Many Wellington protestors claimed they were not anti-vax but had lost their job due to the vaccine mandate. Hello! I'm no supporter of Ardern but have you noticed that almost every person that expresses disapproval of being vaccinated invariably also expresses contempt for her? Many are seeing the current polling as conclusive evidence Ardern is gone in 2023. I hope they are right. Her and her colleagues are so far out of their depth it's comical.........but there are 18 months until the next election. Don't go the early crow. Polling at this time means diddly. Never underestimate the power of self preservation. National are in campaign mode. They have nothing else on. Labour are to busy ruining the country to be in campaign mode. Look who the main opposition party is. Judith Collins still in play. Michael Woodhouse still in play as is Gerry Brownlee. You saw what happened to numerous other National MP's during the previous electoral cycle. Christopher Luxon is to be congratulated for his number one achievement so far in politics. He's managed to keep his true self hidden. He's a devout God Botherer. When it suits he totally plays it down. When it suits he milks it. He's anti abortion which means he's anti woman deciding what happens to their own body. How will that fly when it's under the spotlight in 2023 NZ? He's anti euthanasia. How will that fly in 2023 knowing the result of the 2020 referendum? etc etc. Many will recoil when the true Luxon is exposed. Remember, he will need a fair % of non National Party voters to get him over the line. It won't happen. National could put up a pork sausage as their leader at this time and it would poll well. Context. People have had a gutsful of Ardern's upbeat take on everything regardless of the true situation. .....but she doesn't have to fix anything between now and October next year. She just needs to make progress and have enough people think she's on the right track. She has a lot of dosh to call on to help with that goal. I'm 100% sure she will make some progress even if it's SFA. Add that to Covid likely to not be the same sort of issue next year it has been in recent times and you have an entirely different political landscape. Patience grasshopper. Patience.

Hey Brodie, You've encouraged discussion so I will engage. In doing so I first acknowledge that I enjoy a debate / discussion on many topics but I can say with some certainty that the most pointless debates I've ever entered into are with the anti-vax brigade who are invariably also anti-lockdown, anti-facemasks, anti-mandates and many even believe SARS-CoV-2 is a hoax. I will share my background. I had all the usual vaccinations as a child and have the flu vaccine every year. When my first daughter was about to be born we started looking into vaccinations and recoiled in shock. This is pre Youtube days. I read that New Zealand were importing the cheaper generic vaccinations and how they came with considerable risk and that the Government was keeping that risk covered up from New Zealanders. I have little or no trust in politicians so that resonated with me. I also read that healthy babies were suffering sudden brain seizures after taking the vaccine and were now in a vegetative state. Once again it claimed the Government was keeping this tragic information from Kiwi's despite it not being a rare event. We made what we believed was an "informed choice" not to have our children vaccinated. Unfortunately, we had been informed with complete bullshit by an anti-vax movement that have become expert in feeding people dangerous misinformation (bullshit). When I look back I feel embarrassed by the farcical "informed choice" we bought into. It's really important to separate our feelings about Jacinda Ardern and her colleagues when making important decisions about Covid and the vaccine etc. In the interest of transparency, I will declare my hand. I voted for the first time in 2020 despite being in my 50's. I disliked what National did to NZ and the growing reliance on China. The low wage economy had run it's course. Their denials of the growing housing crisis were very concerning. I also had concerns with the mass immigration policy forever changing the face of our beautiful country at break neck speed. Putting $$ before people and then calling it a rock star economy was not the NZ I wanted to leave behind. I strongly disagree with you about Ardern being unqualified for the role of PM and referring to a role she once had in a takeaway as a young teenager in sleepy Morrinsville as evidence. There is clear misogyny in that perspective. What I saw with her was a hard working and extremely intelligent person. In 2017, National were sleepwalking to a third term. 9 weeks out from election day the inept Andrew Little finally fell on his leadership sword. This should have occurred 18 months earlier as the man is like bland wallpaper and never even for a moment resonated with the public. Even when John Key suddenly stepped down, Andrew Little actually dropped even further in the preferred PM poll. Ardern had zero hope of winning in 2017 going up against a well oiled National Party machine desperate to retain power. Had it not been for the dead cat on the table 11 billion dollar fiscal hole from Steven Joyce, Labour would likely have won in 2017 without the need or input of Winston Peters. Anyone capable of doing what Ardern did in that 9 weeks under the circumstances she faced, is well capable of being the NZ PM. When you put her up against Bill English for example, you saw a young modern leader who was an excellent communicator going up against a boring bean counter that was about as inspiring as flat warm beer. Labour and Ardern have got somethings right in their four and a half years but the list of failures grow every month. They have been extremely disappointing. Todd Muller was right when he said Ardern was surrounded by a bunch of empty chairs. Most of those empty chairs have ridden the coattails of Ardern. Having the absolutely useless Phil Twyford as the Housing Minister at any time would be diabolical but during a housing crisis is a different level of incompetence. To prove they had learned nothing from that disaster they replaced Twyford with the equally inept and morbidly obese Megan Woods. Labour have no clue how to deal with the housing crisis. Getting Judith Collins and National onboard in 2021 proved yet again just how far out of their depth Labour is. Ardern was upbeat about Kiwibuild. Then when that was an epic fail, she was upbeat about the "reset". That has also been a costly fail but she remains upbeat despite what we can all see. Being "upbeat" is helpful for a sales manager to their sales staff but kiwi's have had enough of the sales pitch that is producing SFA. No doubt the captain of the Titanic was upbeat when he headed off into the Atlantic in April 2012. Where is the Titanic now and how helpful was Captain Smith being upbeat? The latest epic fail was the Government response to Supermarkets rorting Kiwi's for decades. What is clear is that the Government has no real clue how to deal with it so they abdicate responsibility and farcically put it back onto the very people ripping you off. I like many have become increasingly disillusioned with Ardern and her Government. I don't know what the answer is but I'm 100% certain I know what the answer isn't. The National Party. When Covid arrived in NZ in early 2020, I hoped the response would be led by epidemiologists, virologists and respected medical professionals etc. I hoped there would be a campaign showing kiwi's exactly what was coming and how and why we would manage the risks. Instead, it was led by a politician in Ardern and her tag team partner Ashley Bloomfield who only ever rubber stamped the input of the other. Education was replaced with relentless instruction. The approach of Ardern was arrogant. She obviously felt her popularity at the time would be enough to get the job done but she didn't put enough weight on several other very important factors. 1) Many people don't trust politicians but trust of the Covid messenger is very important. 2) Many people didn't vote for Labour so are less likely to respect their big calls. 3) Many adults strongly resent being told what to do. 4) Many males dislike female leaders so are less likely to respect their big calls. 5) Up to 40% of Americans (140 million + people) are seen as Anti-Vax so that aspect was always going to raise it's head here. Despite the above, I believe Ardern has done a very good job of getting NZ through this pandemic with the minimum loss of life compared to similar sized countries elsewhere but it wasn't rocket science. NZ was gifted the benefit of time. We could see early on what was happening elsewhere and how best to mitigate risk. Lockdown was the appropriate response but for that to achieve the best outcome we needed to act promptly. Ardern did this despite widespread ridicule. This was our victory against Covid but it came with a hefty price tag in more than just fiscal terms. There were however numerous failings along the way and misrepresentations from both Ardern and Bloomfield. At one point Bloomfield had clearly been encouraged from high up to accept a Covid Positive UN worker from Fiji. Not only did Bloomfield overturn his original decision not to accept the person but he also claimed he'd forgotten about the unprecedented text messages he'd received. Let's just say he was creative with the truth. When trust is hugely important, the conduct of Bloomfield was an enormous and damaging fail. That joins the list of other failings from the tag team partners. My wife is a senior health professional in Auckland as is my brother and numerous other extended family members. I can say with certainty that without exemption, everyone connected with our health system I have spoken to don't agree with many statements sold to the public as factual by the tag team partners. The painfully slow vaccine rollout in the second quarter of 2021 was a debacle. We could see what was happening elsewhere but NZ plodded along like we had years to get vaccinated. I knew of hundreds of nurses that have direct contact with patients yet were unvaccinated but remarkably the big wigs and their offsiders that had zero contact with the public were vaccinated. I knew of many 80+ year old's with other health complications but weren't able to get vaccinated until the second half of 2021 despite them being in the high risk category. In July 2021 we learned there was a positive case among frontline port workers in Tauranga. Shortly after it was confirmed 90% of these workers were unvaccinated. The most remarkable aspect of this was the Government and Ministry of Health were oblivious to this potential carnage. Not long after that the extended Auckland lockdown (Home Detention) got under way. This was entirely avoidable. I believe the Government and especially the tag team partners spent a lot of their own currency at that time. Their next fail was not to educate NZ about the vaccine and address every concern being expressed about the vaccine, especially online. Instead, Ardern chose to just instruct people relentlessly to get vaccinated, get vaccinated, get vaccinated. When an anti-vaxxer arrived on scene, she would dismiss them as being a very small minority that were not "us'. How did that work out? The best way to counter misinformation from dubious sources is to present facts from reliable sources. The Government didn't get that memo. If they did, they arrogantly ignored it. I describe the anti-vax brigade as belligerent expert-novices. We are in a pandemic. Today the reported death toll from Covid is said to be 6.3 million people but many experts believe the true number of deaths now exceed 25 million. Anyone who denies the exitance of and the risks of Covid is displaying a very high level of ignorance. At this time and over the last 15 months, there is no doubt whatsoever the best tool in the Covid toolbox has been the vaccine. Yet again, a high level of ignorance and dangerous misinformation exists. The vaccine is not poison. Some of the best scientific minds on the planet urgently worked together on the vaccine construction and it has clearly saved tens of millions of lives. Those that deny that reality are the equivalent to life long members of the flat earth society. Yes, the virus evolves so the vaccine must also evolve. What has high efficacy against one variant may offer far less protection against the next variant. Should we not bother creating vaccines for that reason? Every year we have a flu vaccine. These are created on predictions. Put simply, what flu variant we had last year and what variant the experts predict we will have this year will result in what vaccine will be created. I found the irony of the Wellington protestors perplexing. Some were very angry about the vaccine which many described as poison they refuse to have in their body. At the exact same moment they were spouting that BS, many were holding a cigarette. I'm compelled to ask, what medical and or scientific background to these people have to reach their conclusions and be so adamant they couldn't possibly be wrong? I should also ask about the very harsh medications I.C.U staff will inject into the body of seriously unwell Covid patients to keep them alive. Do they know what these substances are and how they work? Do they trust them? Will they refuse them? What alternative treatment do they recommend? During the Tamaki protests, I noticed placards that stated "GOD WILL SAVE THEM", Really? Why them and not all the others? Another placard stated "VITAMIN C WILL SAVE THEM"....clearly they had no understanding of even basic biology. Vitamin C is water soluble. It's excreted via urine. The human body is simply unable to store enough Vitamin C to make a meaningful difference in the Covid battle. Yes, both Vitamin C and D are helpful but are the equivalent of taking a feather duster to a gun fight. My wife was heavily involved in the HPV and Meningitis vaccination campaigns. She and all her colleagues were confronted by the anti-vax brigade and their tactics almost every day. Here's a typical scenario. A person has an undiagnosed serious health condition. They get vaccinated. Several months later the person learns of their condition and later succumbs to it. This is categorized as "potentially vaccine related". The anti-vax brigade leave out all the critically important background health details and say the following. "Person get's vaccinated, then that person dies as a result of the vaccine". Yes, there are risks with vaccines but there are risks with everything. Last year many hundreds of people died after taking paracetamol. We must weigh up the risks which are a no brainer for me. The risk of having the vaccine is significantly less than the risk of not having it. As a punter we must do the math if we want to make a quid. Anyone with any real understanding of mitigating risk and basic math, has had the vaccine.

If what you're saying was correct Chief, I'd agree but we have a different take on things. I refute Glenthorne was struggling to hold it's position. He's a noted front front runner who got the front much easier than he did with his hollow win on Christmas Eve. I believe White was holding the front comfortably and was not expecting anyone to have a dig at that point. He was looking to give the horse easy sectionals until it mattered most. Not only did Butcher have designs on the front but he did so with momentum. That caught White napping. He still had time to hold the front when he had a challenge but steadied when he saw who it was. White's actions prevented it being an authentic race Chief. More like musical chairs. I also believe Butcher said something to White moments prior to him conceding the front. Would you expect to see that all unfold in a 200k G1 race? A punters $ is worth the same in both races.