Walt

I wasn't much of a fan of Economist Shamubeel Eaqub after he adamantly stated NZ needed a population of 15 million people. That aside, I was very interested in what the alleged experts said would happen with house prices when Covid arrived in 2020. All of them except one said the prices would drop. Most said about 15% but some said more, some slightly less. Shamubeel Eaqub was a lone voice against that. He stated there were too many variables in play to make a call one way or the other. His conservative and cautious approach stayed with me. As we know, house prices rose dramatically. 25-30% increases were common. When I saw the interview below, I took notice of what Eaqub had to say about National's plan to tax the purchases of offshore house buyers. He described it as "bullshit". For someone of his ilk to use such colourful language reflects how he sees it.

Great question Freda, Puppet Biden the sniffer can't walk the distance of a snooker table without tripping over an imaginary banana skin and hasn't strung a coherent sentence together since the Nixon administration. Harris is an absolute disgrace but was the right ethnicity and gender to tick the virtue signaling boxes. She will be remembered for talking to the American people as if they were all in kindergarten and of course her maniacal cackle. She's obliterated the importance of the VP role. Any American that has the audacity to see this and think the US needs and deserves much better is described as a terrorist threat. The Biden administration knows exactly who their biggest rival / threat is to expose and send them packing. Donald J. This is the number 1 reason for the charges they are dumping on him via the D.O.J. They are simply doing everything they can including full on skullduggery to eliminate their biggest political rival............in the land of the free and home of the brave. The NZ Election will be dirty ....but the US Election next year will be on a different planet and with so much at stake.

I don't know what the answer is in terms of the best Government for NZ Chief. I just know it's clearly not National or Labour. Surely we deserve better than one isn't quite as bad as the other. I can relate to all those feeling disillusioned by the options they will have in October.

My take on NZ Politics is not exactly positive. Helen Clark made me feel a little unwell. When the Nats under JK arrived in 2008, I felt optimistic but over time that feeling faded away. Things that pulled my chain were the sudden change of demographic, especially in Auckland. When Winston Peters talked about Queen Street looking like Beijing or Mumbai, he was absolutely right. I embrace the melting pot but they got it badly wrong and buried "balance" in the nearest landfill. It looked and felt like we were gifting our country away. The close connections between the Nats and China had alarm bells ringing. The indifference displayed toward those that are not Nat voters was a huge disappointment. This was especially so when it came to those in the bottom third doing it hard. A housing crisis was unfolding right under our noses. Not only did the Nats ignore it, they claimed everything was just far king dandy. The Rock Star Economy may have looked good on the books but the reality at the coalface was a different ballgame. John Key said there was far too many empty chairs around NZ dinner tables as a result of kiwis upping sticks and leaving. He adamantly claimed he'd put that right but instead, he actually sped up that process. NZ to me felt divided between the haves and have nots. The only priority seemed to be $$$$$. It was this in my view that created fertile ground for Ardern to arrive on scene and be embraced. Labour got a few things right but others they got badly wrong. Better health outcomes for Maori is an excellent goal but better health outcomes for everyone is far more important. When you prioritize support and health care on Ethnicity, you've just driven a D10 bulldozer onto very thin ice. You've also created entitlement in the brown team and resentment in the much larger "others" team. This divisive agenda is reflected in Labour's crappy ratings. They are not reading the room at all. They have gone to the Casino and put all their chips down on the brown vote and the men playing dress ups. Hipkins started ok but it wasn't long before he forgot what a woman is. Then when Winston stated women and girls should be safe in their toilets and changing rooms from fully intact biological men, Hipkins stated Peters was spreading hate toward transgender people. Peters wasn't of course but it was a confronting reminder of why Labour have put hate speech laws on the backburner until post election and how those laws would be used by vested interest to control the narrative. Three Waters makes a mockery of democracy but Labour not too concerned about that. Their handling of the finances has been a train wreck. Virtue signaling has ruled the roost. Watching the Labour Government implode was just a matter of when. Their handling of the housing crisis highlighted just how far out of their depth they are. Our health system is a mess made even worse under Andrew Little. I have great respect for our Nurses and Doctors but they are peeing into a gale. Over the last few months Hipkins has finally put priority on resolving at least some of the long running disputes with our nurses and teachers. How sad that the motivation in terms of timing is about their own political survival. To hear Hipkins then deliberately misrepresent the numbers and their pay scales within nursing highlighted just how broken the system is and how comfortable Hipkins is to look into the camera and .....lie. Te Whatu Ora nurses have finally received some better news with their pay dispute but it must be remembered there are thousands of community nurses that are just as qualified if not more than their peers at Te Whatu Ora but they have been blanked yet again. Many were just holding on by their finger nails. This is an area near and dear to me so when I see Hipkins misrepresenting truth, I know he is the wrong person to lead NZ. There are nurses in the community now in senior roles receiving 60% less then their equivalent at Te Whatu Ora. Hipkins described this situation as a few nurses at General Practice Clinics that will instead need to negotiate with management. This is the misrepresentation of truth at the end of a long long rainbow. I know of three that said this was the last straw and finally resigned. Pay parity, pay equity, pay inequity. What a joke. It's a shambles. Hipkins fully aware the nurses involved with not state their case to the media due to restrictions etc so he spits in their face and then and then gets a free pass that he budgets on. It's the carnage that Labour has created that has set things up for National to regain Government. National however are about as inspiring as warm flat beer. Yes, a better option than Labour but Donald Duck would be a better option than Labour. I'm convinced Labour has missed the boat due to the echo chamber they live and work in. It's all about the agenda. Nothing they say or do now will change the election outcome. They are by the garage door just marking time before being thrown into the rubbish skip in October.....exactly where they belong.

The numbers leaving NZ is an exodus. A countries future is obviously connected to it's young people. Those with the intellect and determination to move forward are the very people leaving. They are disillusioned with the dynamics here and up at the sharp end of that is home ownership. I can point to dozens of driven young people that were born here and very much wanted to stay but have eventually given up. Trying to buy their own home in their home country can be soul destroying for many. Two of my own daughters moved to Australia in recent years. Both now own impressive properties and a lifestyle they struggled to get near in NZ. There's an army of first home buyers here bashing their head into the wall. Watching investors pushing them aside at house auctions so they can add yet another family home to their housing investment portfolio doesn't exactly give them warm fuzzies. If you are removed from this relentless dynamic, you may not even be aware of just how big it's been in recent years. That has only calmed down since Labour removed tax advantages and of course, high interest rates. Any advantage first home buyers may have felt by house prices dropping has been wiped out by high interest rates. Only a small minority of them can save the 120k to 200k as a 20% deposit so they will cop an even bloodier nose with interest rates. National will obviously reinstate tax advantages to investors / landlords. They will inevitably zero back in on our housing market. This will be the last straw for many young, bright and driven kiwis. Based on current and past conduct, the Government of the day is only speeding up their departure. I want them to stay here. I despair for them when I hear National proudly talking about looking after investors regardless of the devastating impact that will have on others. The dynamic and priority is wrong. I want investors / landlords to be looked after........but not at the expense of our young people. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/08/record-number-of-migrants-arrive-in-nz-as-kiwis-leave-in-droves-stats-nz.html https://www.infometrics.co.nz/article/2023-04-kiwis-already-moving-across-the-ditch

it would be rare I agree but what is not rare would be numbers being deliberately blurred and avenues available to get around the 2m mark. Levers being pulled via tax breaks etc for Landlords / investors being reintroduced will cause investors both here and offshore to dive back into buying NZ houses. This will obviously cause house prices to increase. That is a shocker for first home buyers. At present house prices may have dropped approximately 20% from the highs of 2021 but the amount people can borrow has also dropped around 20% due to high interest rates. They will be completely shut out if prices rise, unless of course they are ok about being part of a growing number of kiwis being displaced from buying the home they would normally have obtained in their own area. They'd either have to buy an undesirable property in an undesirable area or move away from their work, family and friends. National have significant relationships with China and that is cause for real concern. Using NZ based trusts with a NZ IRD number is a well worn routine for offshore investors to buy NZ homes.....along with of course, family / extended family / friends living here that buy properties on their behalf. Young kiwis are leaving NZ in droves and the politicians couldn't care less about this. If National do what they have always done, even more young Kiwis will give up and leave. I trust both National and Labour......0% Saying Willis will do better than Roberson is hardly inspiring

That must put the cat among the pigeons. Lifting the foreign buyers ban may or may not be a reasonable business decision for the country, but it's rank for Kiwi first home buyers that have been so disillusioned with the dynamic that they are leaving NZ in droves. The tax on offshore buyers always had a placating look about it but if they can't actually tax the Chinese offshore buyers, National must be called into question. Lets face it, the Foreign buyers ban is really just a euphemism for "Offshore Chinese, Foreign Buyers Ban". It's well known that National has very close links with China so if they have been exposed for totally misleading the NZ public while knowing the tax didn't even apply to offshore Chinese buyers, can they be trusted with anything they say?

I think anyone watching the election campaign and the stark choices available could be in danger of losing the will to live

Some excellent points Galah. As you know if there is enough money on a certain runner, several others will get the blows. If it's a big drift, it could be related to the amount of interest in the race or familiar patterns of "not today from a stable" that the alleged bookies pick up on.

Fair enough Aquaman...one thing for certain, I can't remember an election where the choices are so stark. I bump into a lot of people that support Liz Gunn. I just can't see a pathway into Parliament at this time, let alone Government. I think if you wanted to see the establishment shit themselves, just combine some of the smaller parties.

Can't disagree with your observations Brodie. Neither of us are accusing him of anything. Just sharing our observations. Another observation is the considerable overall improvement of almost all the House runners in recent months since they stopped tripping up to Palmerston North. You'd see a House runner going an ok race at Addington for a fourth or fifth and you'd think that was a solid performance for a House runner and put it in your book for when it next trekked North to the very average Palmy meetings or deep South for easier pickings than Addington. That mindset has suddenly gone by the wayside. Unsure if they have had their training regime tweeked up a couple of notches or Michael is extra keen to have young Wilson established as a driver on the up. Couldn't blame him on either score if that is correct.

House is good at setting a horse up for a punt. He seemed proud to have done just that in an Amateur Drivers race he won on 16th July on Franco Hoffman paying $9 to win. He said he'd told some people important to him the horse would win. Previous four starts were 7th, 6th,6th and 8th. Three of those runs he was driven by Wilson House. Some would say that is a fairly straight forward form line to set up a punt. I'm not saying that's what unfolded but it's a possibility. Interesting that after Franco Hoffman won that race, he went on to win his next two races so was obviously nailed down despite the very average lead up form.

who would you vote for? For me, it's New Zealand First at this time. I feel the choices we have at this election are the most stark I've ever been confronted with. Labour are a train wreck. I trust them about as far as I can throw an adult Elephant. Via their agenda, they have divided our country in different ways, mostly ethnicity. Labour have consistently shown they are out of their depth. They deserve to be sent packing for a long long time. National will win the election but not on merit. People feel so dirty on Labour that it's set things up for a National Party win. We've gone back to voting a Government out rather than being inspired and voting in a new Government. I flat out don't trust anything Luxon says. He's danced around trying to keep his authentic self out of view as he knows most will recoil from it. He's also attempting to be everything to everybody which I feel deeply suspicious about. I'm certain he will use the state of the books to bring in huge changes and then justify doing so. Most of those changes will advantage the wealthy and disadvantage those doing it hard. Labour prioritized Maori and Pacifica. The bottom third. National will prioritize those doing well. The top third. Yet again, the middle third will be overlooked. ACT are not for me but Seymour does make a bit more sense than many in Parliament so I give him that. ACT will be part of the coalition Government with National. Greens make me feel unwell. Their co-leader has made appalling statements about the biggest demographic in NZ. The rest of us would have been canceled had we done similar. She then used a completely implausible excuse for making the statement while being a massive cheerleader to the transgender movement. I feel every time there is a potential climate related issue on the news the Greens rub their hands knowing that will help harvest some votes despite them achieving nothing meaningful at all in Parliament. The biggest policy statement at this time involves taxing the wealthy (mostly white folk) and redistributing it to those at the bottom end (mostly non white) NZF. They appear to me at least to be the best of a bad bunch. If NZF can grab 7%+ of the vote and National need them for the coalition, it will have a much better balance than just National and ACT.....in my opinion.

I was blissfully unaware of the Public Grandstand being demolished in 2011. Where do the public sit now? I've seen images on TV of the action on the infield. Looked more like mating rituals than harness racing but better to have that than just the dying breed of old school harness followers I guess. Must be said, if they are the future of the game then we are in even deeper do-do than I thought Hopefully I can take in some genuine harness racing history on the day

Lots of memories in this link Gammalite, including Bonnies Chance at around 44 mins winning the 1982 NZ Cup, the last one I attended

Just looking for a bit of feedback from the good eggs here. Going to NZ Cup Day for the first time since Bonnies Chance won the Cup 1982. Taking my wife who doesn't share my harness passion but always has a great day out when we go to the trots together. I've lived in Auckland for 40 years so it was the Auckland Cup I attended but it was never as good as NZ Cup Day. I enjoy anything related to harness racing history so looking forward to soaking up all I can. The Blossom Lady Lounge has been suggested to us on Cup Day. Is it the bees knees and any other recommendations?

Meanwhile, back in sunny Nelson this morning. Hope Saddle about an hour South of Nelson.

Very impressive......and somewhat better than our good mates wall

Great action photo of Palestine. I also remember Balgove. Bob Cameron was a master at judging the pace. If he got the top, he generally stayed there. Drove some very classy animals in his day. Can't recall the John Vincent horse you're referring to Gammalite. I'm assuming it was late 80's early 90's? I would have thought Spangled Lord would have notched up a few more wins after his Nelson Cup victory. Not sure if he had issues. His last 26 starts yielded just two placings. I'd forgotten about Stratum. He was an excellent performer prior to being exported. Looking through old results I see he beat Tight Connection, Reba Lord and Inky Lord and only decent animals did that. What a shame he broke down.

I've just gone through the results from that day and thought I'd share some titbits. John Vincent who won the Nelson Cup with Spangled Lord also had two other winners on the day. Pallea won the first race for Terry and Rick May, the Globe Tavern Handicap. A fav watering hole of mine that has since be bowled and replaced with The Warehouse. Most interesting aspect of that win was Pallea being by their Cup Class pacer Palestine an old fav of mine. One of John Vincent's wins was with Andronicas. I backed him. Paid sod all but he was by Honkin Andy who also sired the awesome Honkin Vision who won half a million. Mike De Filippi drove Scenic Light to win at long odds. Scienic Light was by Leading Light who won the Auckland Cup in 1969 for DG, Jack and Rod....also at long odds.

That looks to me like Spangled Lord with John Vincent in the cart beating Tumahu Hanover for Robert Dunn. Third was Watbro Cloud for Peter Jones. Back in fourth spot was Bachelor Creed with Rick May in the bike. The race I believe would be the 1985 Nelson Cup. Shall I put my NZ Cup on the mantlepiece Gammalite?

Always enjoy your posts Gammalite.....allows me to enjoy a stroll down memory lane

Some big names there Gammalite evoking fond memories. Jack Smolenski was not the most riveting guy I ever chatted with but knew how to condition and drive that's for sure. Whenever he'd bring a horse North you knew it was a license to print money. Arapaho, Nardin's Byrd, the two you mentioned, Gina Marie (his wife was Marie) and her daughter the magnificent Gina Rosa who routinely beat up the boys just a few that come to mind. I always considered him one of the best drivers at getting a horse away from the stand. Those Rowe Cup winners are a who's who. Stormy Morn was a superb grinder that couldn't sprint to save himself but what he had, he used superbly. Won over 30 races and 200k. Not too shabby for a trotter, especially a hack picked up for $150. Loved Sir Castleton. His battles with Basil Dean and others are great memories. Sir Castleton could sprint home like a very good pacer. Tussle with her head down telling her rivals to catch her if they can for Peter Jones and Cliff Irvine, and usually not being able to get near her. Jenner was so reliable and if not winning was never far away at the finish.

Tommy Behrns, Ted Lowe, Pat O'Reilly, Kevin and Doody Townley, Max Miller, Colin and Mike De Filippi, DG Jones, Jack Smolenski, Trevor Thomas, Wes Butt, Stewie Sutherland, Ali Malcomson, John Noble, Ces Divine, Murray Rennie, Murry Edmonds, George Shand and a long list of others. Local trainers Joe and Brian Hill along with Noel Berkett and of course trainers from Blenheim and the West Coast who you'd always know were there. Happy to put my hand up and say I miss those days and most of the names I've mentioned. Some real characters in amongst them. All were welcomed regulars at Nelson.

Great photo Chief.....and wonderful memories. I remember going to every meeting from 1970 to . There was always a division race with both divisions having full fields. Jack O'Donnell with his "This time" to start every race. Win machine and place machine Trainers came from near and far for the meetings and many never missed a meeting. I could rattle off a long list of names that became very familiar sights at the Nelson meetings. We were blessed and probably didn't realize just how fortunate we were. If only we could go back. We only moved back to Nelson late last year after 40 years in Auckland which was plenty long enough. Went to the January summer meeting and loved every minute despite the Members stand looking tired and the public stand looking worse for wear. Andre Neill interviewed John Dunn after a race and he said he just loved coming to the Nelson meeting. It was clear he meant it. When we left after the last race on the second day I felt genuinely disappointed I'd have to wait until July for the winter meeting.......only to find even that had been shitcanned so it's now just one meeting a year. Wasted opportunity. Seems we can only look back now as looking forward has effectively been ruled out.