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Bit Of A Yarn

irish heart race 3


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On 12/10/2018 at 11:17 AM, FeelTheFear said:

Bugger...bugger...bugger. Have spent my punting career looking at the stats with some success though not a millionaire or anywhere near. Then along comes mardi and curious and barryb who start spouting off about it being all about the individual horse. What the hell ya all talking about? 

Been mulling it over, playing with the idea, my brain started to hurt. Took a panadol.

Read the other day that something like 80% of winners come from on the pace or just off it. Makes sense. Then I realised I couldn't really use it to refine my punting. What about the horses that win from behind? I'm as confused as Mr T's tips. 

Then it strikes me... I don't need to know that stat, does me no good whatsoever. All I have to do is research each individual horse to see how it runs positionally and where it performs best. Took another panadol...

Then I decided that if I trusted the trainer to present the horse as best that he or she could, then I could leave the tactics, gear changes etc to them. Much easier.

Then I decided that if I trusted the rider of the horse, then I would leave the riding to them. Getting much easier.

That leaves just the horse to worry about. Does that make it easier? Perhaps. 

Then I thought about weight carried by the horse. I have decided that if there is any factor that makes it a positive factor to use, it can't amount to much. With the randomness of horse racing, these factors are only guess work. Losing a race by 1 length equates to around .14 secs over 1200m (even this is an average). A horse being held up in the straight might lose a couple of seconds. That equates to around 14.2 lengths. Randomness of events starts to even out these factors. Guess I just have a look at what the horse has carried before and over what distance, class etc. 

Taking that time factor further. How many times has a maiden horse lost a race by 10 lengths only to win next up? The difference is around 1.4 seconds. Improvement with further input (training/trials) from the trainer allows for this turnaround.

Don't get me started on class of race....

Onya...whatever niche bites ya...

But dont do what Bazz and gras does...

Just ignore the last 3 starts...treating horses like they're Bots...never losing form...

...or 'time gurus'...never adjusting a time for distance covered....as Woddy does..

"don't care 3L either way"

laughable 

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13 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Onya...whatever niche bites ya...

But dont do what Bazz and gras does...

Just ignore the last 3 starts...treating horses like they're Bots...never losing form...

...or 'time gurus'...never adjusting a time for distance covered....as Woddy does..

"don't care 3L either way"

laughable 

Yep don't do what we do, WIN, follow T and guarantee to lose.

Easy choice I would have thought.

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20 minutes ago, Thomass said:

How did your last 4 tips go bazzmodo??

..after a TIPPING MASTERCLASS. Of the Tri, Q and winner...all in one??

Oh that's right...you do Dunceclass...

"I don't care if I have 50 losing bets"

next

You're right. We shouldn't be so hard on you even if you are now trying to compare longer priced runners with a bunch of favs.

To be fair, if a dart had been used and had hit horses paying the same prices as your 8 runners, they would have 'generally' expected to have got 1.8 winners which we know isn't possible. So one winner is on the low side and two winners would have put you fractionally ahead of a dart. 

Did you use a dart?

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23 minutes ago, Thomass said:

How did your last 4 tips go bazzmodo??

..after a TIPPING MASTERCLASS. Of the Tri, Q and winner...all in one??

Oh that's right...you do Dunceclass...

"I don't care if I have 50 losing bets"

next

Shit for Brains, I understand that tipping $10 plus shots the run of outs can be horrendous, clearly you don't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_of_ruin

 

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On 12/10/2018 at 5:28 PM, mardigras said:

I doubt it. He has a history of sulking. He goes away after he gets a hiding. And it is the weekend tomorrow. That's doll patch repair time.

Actually I have a LIFE...

Instead of tripping the light fantasy..as you in your soiled y's and dirty singlet 

Im cavorting and canoodling 

But NOBODY does sulk like you

Remember C L E O giving you what your mammy should have spanked into you??

And what did you do??

Instead of ignoring him and moving on...

You sulked off...tail between legs with Damo...and refused to post ever again over there.

Get hard or get out

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2 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Instead of ignoring him and moving on...

You sulked off...tail between legs with Damo...and refused to post ever again over there.

Sure did. Since I work on the premise of honesty. And he doesn't. In fact, he's a lot like you. Makes stuff up because the truth doesn't sit well. So when I left, it was no longer a sulk. It was a stand. 

But you sulk off and then after a while, you come back. That's what a sulk does.

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43 minutes ago, mardigras said:

You're right. We shouldn't be so hard on you even if you are now trying to compare longer priced runners with a bunch of favs.

To be fair, if a dart had been used and had hit horses paying the same prices as your 8 runners, they would have 'generally' expected to have got 1.8 winners which we know isn't possible. So one winner is on the low side and two winners would have put you fractionally ahead of a dart. 

Did you use a dart?

I've spanked you over this as well...

I brilliantly sighted the one value for the day at 35's and 11's the place...

...and said I couldn't find any others over 10's

...then I produced a TIPPING MASTERCLASS...to which you said

"Why didn't you tip 10's plus"...when Nothing won over 6's

dickhead

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In your own small mind you did. But as what others have also stated. You simply make stuff up to suit what happens. You're a dreamer and a loser. And now you're going on abut a runner that placed. Along with a bunch of $2, $3 selections of which one won. Well done on that by the way.

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14 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Sure did. Since I work on the premise of honesty. And he doesn't. In fact, he's a lot like you. Makes stuff up because the truth doesn't sit well. So when I left, it was no longer a sulk. It was a stand. 

But you sulk off and then after a while, you come back. That's what a sulk does.

Hilarious...so you did sulk..then sulk off...

well done for admitting it..you're half way there to recovery

The problem is you have the mind of a 5 yo...and you're obsessed with moi's success...

OCD...with NPD...and Dilusions of Granduer...

Get the meds changed 

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No, I left. It's called making a stand. Can you read? I'll help you since remedial classes aren't working.

".and refused to post ever again over there."

"Sure did."

"So when I left, it was no longer a sulk. It was a stand".

Quite simple, yet still a struggle for you.

 

 

Edited by mardigras
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Just now, Thomass said:

Haha..

so it was a sulk...a number of them..but then no longer...

Sulk off with tail tucked up crack=SULK

In Swahili even...

Still having trouble with English I see. Because again, that is not what is stated. Idiot.

Not another discussion where your stupidity and obsession end up with you repeating the same crap over and over because you are too stupid to understand simple things. You're obsessed and you are stupid. A bad combination.

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1 minute ago, Thomass said:

It was "no longer a sulk"...so it was a bit of a sulk...you were sulking to a degree...

...then massively when you sulked off...on a long sulk

Haha, who needs Comedy Channel on Netflix with you here

No. Your English isn't getting better. That is still incorrect.

Comedy. You are providing enough for everyone.

Edited by mardigras
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3 minutes ago, mardigras said:

He probably does, although as is his way, his understanding of Swahili is likely to be very limited as well.

Now you've admitted you were conceived at the back of the Levin Pub long drop...

...and C lives down in that same drop

Im convinced you two are one and the same

Never disagree...emoji the f out of each other....and basically Rodger one another silly...all day

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1 minute ago, Thomass said:

Now you've admitted you were conceived at the back of the Levin Pub long drop...

...and C lives down in that same drop

Im convinced you two are one and the same

Never disagree...emoji the f out of each other....and basically Rodger one another silly...all day

We are clearly not the same person. But two people agreeing when they take an opposing side is you, is not gong to be a rare occurrence. Why would you think it unusual given you are very unlikely to ever be right.

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1 minute ago, mardigras said:

We are clearly not the same person. But two people agreeing when they take an opposing side is you, is not gong to be a rare occurrence. Why would you think it unusual given you are very unlikely to ever be right.

I'm mardigras as well, I'm also curious and so is my mother

Edited by FeelTheFear
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3 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Now you've admitted you were conceived at the back of the Levin Pub long drop...

This is one of your usual failings. Your make a bunch of assumptions (usually wrong) about what is written. You link things that aren't there. For a start, I was not born in Levin and my parents were not living in Levin when I was born. You are just a stupid dickhead.

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57 minutes ago, mardigras said:

No. Your English isn't getting better. That is still incorrect.

Comedy. You are providing enough for everyone.

I've just had my 3yo Great Neice go over it...

...and she said if you were no longer sulking...like she did when her bro stole her lollipop...then no longer when she got it back...

...you must have been sulking at one stage..

...and she said any f'er who disagrees with her is a big liar...

...what shell I tell her?

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6 minutes ago, Thomass said:

I've just had my 3yo Great Neice go over it...

...and she said if you were no longer sulking...like she did when her bro stole her lollipop...then no longer when she got it back...

...you must have been sulking at one stage..

...and she said any f'er who disagrees with her is a big liar...

...what shell I tell her?

Tell her the truth that Great Uncle is a dumb f--k and he is constantly made to look a complete farking fool on various websites.

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26 minutes ago, barryb said:

Tell her the truth that Great Uncle is a dumb f--k and he is constantly made to look a complete farking fool on various websites.

Bazz...you're great at talking Smack...

...but there's no recognition in that bogan mind of wtf makes things tick...or tock 

The World is going around...but the Sun ain't shining in your direction for some reason...

Have you ever had a colonic yet?

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3 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Bazz...you're great at talking Smack...

...but there's no recognition in that bogan mind of wtf makes things tick...or tock 

The World is going around...but the Sun ain't shining in your direction for some reason...

Have you ever had a colonic yet?

Thommo you're great at talking nonsense, in fact that's all you talk.

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