Data Analysis of Early Two Year Olds that start at the first NSW Trials mid-September.

[Chief Stipe]

Data Analysis: Official 2YO Trials - Early Success vs. Longevity

Written by

Renee Geelen

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Article

11 min read

With the Official 2YO Trials in NSW almost here, TTR investigated the last five years to discover if those precocious horses are early flash in the pan types, or if they have longer careers. The data showed a definite trend.

Cover image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan

With the first NSW official 2-year-old trials not far away, TTR AusNZ had a look at the runners from the last five years to see how they’ve fared in their longer term careers.

Ask anyone about 2-year-old racing and you’ll get a wide range of opinions from those who believe that good horses come to hand early and that’s why the commercial market preferences precocity, to those who are from the opposite end of the spectrum and believe it’s wrong to race young horses. And of course, everything in the middle.

As the saying goes, opinions are like… everyone has one, thus leaving only one way to resolve this. Data.

Setting the population baseline

TTR AusNZ went through every runner in the first NSW Official 2YO Trials of the season for the last five years and looked at the race record of each horse. This research covered 326 horses, and if the juvenile naysayers are correct, these horses would peak early and fade away with little long-term benefit. In order to get a population baseline, TTR AusNZ used the 2019 Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale, for the simple reason that this sale has a reputation for producing early maturing horses and therefore is self-selected to have similar types of horses as would be at this trial.

Magic Millions Gold Coast sale complex | Image courtesy of Magic Millions

That sale has 63 stakes winners, including eight Group 1 winners, and 713 winners from 936 runners. The catalogue that year had 1157 entries, so only 20 per cent of the catalogue were unraced. From the runners, 76 per cent were winners, and 6.7 per cent were stakes winners. This forms an approximate population baseline, at least for horses who are expected to be precocious. Notably, this sale far outperforms the general population, of which about 2 per cent will win a stakes race during their career.

Manaal, Lady Of Camelot featured in 2023

Across the years, these trials have been wildly successful with the graduates outperforming the population baseline by an incredible margin. In 2023, there were 71 2-year-olds who trialled on September 18, and of those, 10 have already won a stakes race (14 per cent) with two Group 1 winners, Lady Of Camelot (Written Tycoon) and Manaal (Tassort).

Manaal | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

G1 Sires’ Produce S. winner Manaal ran third in Heat 10 of the Official 2YO Trials at Randwick in 2023. “I keep a very open mind,” said trainer Michael Freedman about the trials. “I start with a dozen candidates who might be suitable to being up and going early. Some of them get there and some don’t. As boring as that sounds it is that simple.

“The ones that can cope with being early also get a solid grounding for their future. It’s not for every horse obviously, more of a case of the ones that can get there, and then head to Gimcrack, etc, who have a platform set up for them.”

“I start with a dozen candidates who might be suitable to being up and going early. Some of them get there and some don’t. As boring as that sounds it is that simple.” - Michael Freedman

Manaal went to the G3 Gimcrack S. after her trial and won on debut. Sent to the paddock, she returned in February to run second to Lady Of Camelot in the G3 Widden S. before winning the G2 Sweet Embrace S. Fifth in the G1 Golden Slipper, Manaal then won the G1 Sires’ Produce S. She then ran fourth in the G1 Champagne S. to end her juvenile season with three wins from six starts. She has returned this season at three with a win in the G2 Furious S. from two starts to date.

“It’s not about handpicking which ones will get there because that changes every day. Which ones are ready, or not with shin soreness and what not. You need to go with the flow with them and need to be careful not to push a nice one too early too. A horse can be ruined by pushing them before they are ready.”

Michael Freedman | Image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan

Lady Of Camelot thrives in Waterhouse/Bott system

The other Group 1 winner graduating from the 2023 Official 2YO Trials is G1 Golden Slipper winner Lady Of Camelot. She won Heat 2 on that day in September, and like Manaal, she debuted in the G3 Gimcrack, running fourth. She spent October, November and December away from the races, returning in January to win two trials before winning the G3 Widden S. and running second in the G1 Blue Diamond S. She then won the G1 Golden Slipper before finishing second in the G2 Percy Sykes S. to end her juvenile season with two wins from five starts.

Lady Of Camelot | Image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan

“Those horses are naturally selecting themselves to be early. There’s got to be that natural precocity and speed about the horse to be there, and a physical maturity,” said Lady Of Camelot’s co-trainer Adrian Bott. “Then that has a flow on effect (for their career). They’ve naturally put themselves there and they gain valuable experience and strength that goes with that. The natural ones put their hand up. Some are more forward and some take longer.

“It’s quite straightforward (for our stable). It goes back to the yearling sales where we try to identify the type of horse that’s natural enough to put themselves (at the races early). Our horses take the full benefit of early educations, and this advances them in their racing through their two and 3-year-old careers.

“Those horses are naturally selecting themselves to be early. There’s got to be that natural precocity and speed about the horse to be there, and a physical maturity.” - Adrian Bott

“All our 2-year-olds go through the same process from sale to early education, and yet maybe only 15 per cent of them get to these trials naturally. Some are not physically or mentally ready or may need another preparation. We aren’t manufacturing anything to be there, they are self-selecting from the wider group.”

As for the results from these trials, Bott says, “They have a natural athleticism, and it is easier to win a stakes race at two. As the horses grow more and more horses are added to the racing population and the competition can get tougher, but most horses need to wait and be taken along slower.”

Adrian Bott | Image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan

The Waterhouse/Bott team also had Straight Charge (Written By) and Prost (Snitzel) at these trials. Straight Charge won the first trial, later winning the G2 Silver Slipper, while Prost ran second in Heat 3, going on to win the G3 Canonbury S.

Five-year results

The outstanding results weren’t just a 2023 anomaly. They continued across the five years that The Thoroughbred Report investigated with four of the five years producing a Group 1 winner, and all producing stakes winners at a rate higher than the population baseline figures (be it Magic Millions or generally).

Of note, the COVID affected 2020 year was the worst among this group, being the only season where these trials didn’t produce a Group 1 winner and having the lowest percentage of stakes winners to runners. Even so, they were still beyond the population baseline. Perhaps the COVID restrictions of 2020 had an impact on the way horses were prepared, or maybe the sample size is too small to draw any conclusion on that matter given that the 2020 trials included just 64 individual horses.

year	g1	sw	sp	winner	non winner	unraced	total runners	percent sw
2023	2	8	11	5	39	6	71	14%
2022	1	7	12	27	13	1	61	13%
2021	1	4	8	35	6	0	54	9%
2020	0	5	8	39	12	0	64	8%
2019	1	11	10	39	12	3	76	16%

Table: Career results for NSW Official 2YO Trials runners over the past five years

Savvy readers will note the high number of non-winners among the 2023 cohort, however, this is expected as most of them had one or two starts at two without winning, and as time goes by, these horses will, like in previous years, most likely convert their record into a winning one.

Castanya graduated for the Annabel Neasham team

From the 2023 cohort, Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald-trained filly Castanya (Capitalist) ran third in Heat 12. She didn’t race until January where she ran second to Switzerland (Snitzel) on debut, before winning the Listed Lonhro Plate at her second start. She finished her juvenile season with a win from four starts.

Rob Archibald and Annabel Neasham | Image courtesy of Annabel Neasham Racing

“After the sales season, we identify which horses are potentially early based on pedigree and physical to give us a good idea of that aspect, but from there, we leave it to the horses themselves,” said Rob Archibald.

“If they are quite forward, we might give them a spell after education then set them up for these trials. We don’t focus on these trials heavily, we let the horses who are mature enough get there if they can.

“It’s a good way to round off an education, if they are in at that time and ready, it gives them a bit more (learning). Also, there are plenty of options afterwards, we can spell them and set them for later or carry on depending on the horse. We asses each horse individually, they let you know if they are ready.”

“It’s a good way to round off an education, if they are in at that time and ready, it gives them a bit more (learning). We asses each horse individually, they let you know if they are ready.” - Rob Archibald

Ciaron Maher’s Coolangatta was the star of the 2021 Trials

In 2023, the Ciaron Maher stable won the G2 Reisling S. in March with Erno’s Cube (Rubick) who had run second in Heat 10 at the NSW Official 2YO Trials. The stable also trained Group 1 winner Coolangatta (Written Tycoon) who won her trial on September 20, 2021, going on to win her first three in succession in the G3 Gimcrack S., G3 BJ McLachlan S. and the R. Listed Magic Millions 2YO Classic. Third in the G1 Golden Slipper, she won the G1 AJ Moir S. and G1 Lightning S. at three.

Coolangatta | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

“They are there because they are natural. They know what they are doing, they do it easy and they take to training well. They put their hand up without being asked,” said Maher stable representative Will Bourne.

“We don’t push them. Horses like Erno’s Cube, Coolangatta and Enthaar, they stick out a fair bit. Coolangatta had the athleticism and soundness to get there, and then she stayed sound through her career.”

“They are there (at the Official 2YO Trials) because they are natural. They know what they are doing, they do it easy and they take to training well. They put their hand up without being asked.” - Will Bourne

Aren’t they all winners? No, trial placing is irrelevant

Out of the five Group 1 winners from the last five years not all of them won their first trial. Lady Of Camelot, Ozzmosis (Zoustar) and Coolangatta all won, but Manaal ran third and King’s Legacy (Redoute’s Choice) ran fourth.

There were 40 stakes winners to come through these trials to date. In 2023, four of the 10 won their trial, in 2022 only two of the eight stakes winners won their trial. In 2021, two of the five stakes winners won their trial, while in 2020, the figure was the same with only two of the five winning their trial. And in 2019, with 12 stakes-winning graduates, only three of them won their first trial, and one of them ran last. The data suggests that a horse’s maturity to participate in these trials is a more reliable indicator of long-term career quality than their placement on the day.

The data suggests that a horse’s maturity to participate in these (Official 2YO) trials is a more reliable indicator of long-term career quality than their placement on the day.

“Statistics back it up that 2-year-old racing is positive for a horse’s career, by all the measures, career success prizemoney etc.,” said Adrian Bott. “The right horses racing at two and handled correctly will train on and be better, with some form of 2-year-old racing shown to be a significant indicator of the outcomes for their career. Of course some don’t train on, for example a few might have been mature early and the others catch up with more horses coming into the population. But generally if you look at elite horses, a large percentage of them have started at two.”

[curious]

Simple Summary

Of common debate among equine professionals and enthusiasts alike, is whether entering race training at two years of age is detrimental or beneficial to the animal’s career and growth. This literature review evaluates epidemiological studies to elucidate that two-year-old horses are not at greater risk of injury compared to older horses. Horses which enter race training at two years of age are, in fact, found to have greater earnings and longer race careers. This review also tackles the impact that exercising an animal at two years of age or younger has on bone, articular cartilage, and tendons. Numerous studies on growing animals have found confinement to be detrimental to normal musculoskeletal growth. However, exercise of dynamic nature in moderate distances, such as that attained with pasture access or prescribed sprints, is beneficial to musculoskeletal development and may prevent injuries when entering race training. Based on scientific evidence, the research cited in this review supports the training and racing of two-year-old horses and advises caution in the use of medications such as corticosteroids.

Logan AA, Nielsen BD. Training Young Horses: The Science behind the Benefits. Animals (Basel). 2021 Feb 9;11(2):463. doi: 10.3390/ani11020463. PMID: 33572461; PMCID: PMC7916178.

[curious]

Abstract

The impact of high-speed exercise on the musculoskeletal system of young racehorses has been extensively discussed because of concerns regarding animal health and welfare. This study investigated the correlation between age, degree of ossification of the distal radial epiphysis, sex, and career longevity of Thoroughbred racehorses in Brazil from 2012 to 2015. We performed a retrospective evaluation of 286 dorsopalmar radiographs of the left radiocarpal region of young horses and their racing performance. Distal radial epiphyseal closure was classified into three degrees: A, B, or C. Performance data included the number of races raced, athletic career length, and the number of races per month. The variables were subjected to regression analysis. At the time of radiographic examination, male horses were significantly older than females, and horses with epiphyseal closure degrees differed with age. Age at first race was 33.08±3.81 months, the average of races raced was 18.32±15.14 races, athletic career duration was 20.37±13.82 months, and the number of races raced per month was 0.93±0.46 races. Age influenced (P>0.001) the distal radial epiphyseal closure on racehorses, but sex did not (P=0.218 for males and P=0.275 for females). An inverse association was observed between age at the first race, the number of races raced per month, and athletic career duration. The frequency of race and the age at the first race influenced athletic career duration.

Ramos, M. T., Silva, C. F. D. O., Rocha, A. C. F. D., Oliveira, C. A. D. A., Ribeiro, C. V. D. M., Costa, M. F. D. M., & Abidu-Figueiredo, M. (2023). Influence of age and sex on bone development and athletic career longevity of Thoroughbred racehorses in Brazil-preliminary study. Ciência Animal Brasileira, 24, e-74190.

[Chief Stipe]

28 minutes ago, curious said:

Horses which enter race training at two years of age are, in fact, found to have greater earnings and longer race careers.

The stress vs recover stronger physiological response.

Of course the art of training is knowing when to back off.

[curious]

6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

The stress vs recover stronger physiological response.

Of course the art of training is knowing when to back off.

Managed concussion is required for bone development, hence the increased soundness?

Edited September 22 by curious

[Chief Stipe]

9 minutes ago, curious said:

Managed concussion is required for bone development, hence the increased soundness?

Yes I imagine the physiological response is to lay down more denser bone mass.  I would imagine that a large proportion of the attrition rate isn't injury as much as a lack of attitude and/or ability to run fast enough!

[Freda]

I don't have the facts and figures but I do recall reading [ a good while ago too ] about Japanese research following yearlings [ weanlings?  can't recall which, now ] that were allowed controlled treadmill exercise, as against control groups that had only paddock exercise.    The data wrt overall soundness and longevity of careers as against their more sedentary peers was irrefutable.

The value of exercise loading to maintain skeletal integrity is now  widely accepted, even to the point of encouraging elderly folk to exercise, rather than sit around with a rug over their knees.

I was sent for a bone density scan a while ago, my usual doc had retired and his replacement thought it was advisable.  Off I went and came back to hear the result...which was 100%.

That's amazing, he said, given your age [ !! ] he said.  I told him his predecessor had said to me, just keep doing what you are doing, that's the best protection you'll get.

Given the above posts, and the knowledge inherent in them, I'm very surprised that some of the data wasn't produced at that symposium in Holland [ ? ] where there was a real push to have not just two year old racing, but even training, outlawed.  Driven by sporthorse folk I believe.

There were several very good trainers who attended, I think Gosden may have been one, and possibly Dermot Weld.   But it surprised me that some of this data wasn't produced to support the facts that overall, measured stress is beneficial, not detrimental to a horse's soundness.