Assessing Horses

[Thomass]

It's laughable...

Of course you changed your assessment due to track conditions

One went to 4th selection from 5th...then you claimed you tipped the Q!

You lost CONFIDENCE it could handle your original ASSESSMENT

...so you ASSESSED it differently due to track conditions

much to everyone's AMUSEMENT

Simple as

Just Pure semantics to make youreself out to be a punting genius

 

[FeelTheFear]

Don't worry mardigras, it's a wonder he can tie his own shoelaces let alone comprehend something beyond the level of a 5yo. 

[mardigras]

18 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

Don't worry mardigras, it's a wonder he can tie his own shoelaces let alone comprehend something beyond the level of a 5yo. 

What's laughable is that he actually thinks I was claiming the quinella. That was rubbing in the bullshit masterclass crap. 

What I can claim, is that I suggested backing my lowest priced selection and laying off the two favs. Pretty good result if you ask me. He's simply stupid.

[FeelTheFear]

4 minutes ago, mardigras said:

What's laughable is that he actually thinks I was claiming the quinella. That was rubbing in the bullshit masterclass crap. 

What I can claim, is that I suggested backing my lowest priced selection and laying off the two favs. Pretty good result if you ask me. He's simply stupid.

Stupid is too easy an answer. Willfully ignorant more likely or deliberate troll.

[curious]

20 hours ago, barryb said:

Of more importance is the track itself, right and left handed esp. If it gets back in the running then Te Awamutu is not the place to invest on it.

Do you have any specific criteria (i.e. minimum length of straight) for backing horses with that racing style barryb? And do you have any hard data to suggest that those horses' chance increases on such tracks?

[barryb]

24 minutes ago, curious said:

Do you have any specific criteria (i.e. minimum length of straight) for backing horses with that racing style barryb? And do you have any hard data to suggest that those horses' chance increases on such tracks?

I have in rough in running positions which is good enough to help predict tempo of the race & where a horse might settle, I know that from those likely settling positions & also have data which shows where the winners settled.

Unlike Mr T, I know its not a precise science but my information is right 60% of the time which is superior to most on the above.

For instance on these tracks I know that Leaders/On Pacers win significantly more than other venues. Te Awamutu, Te Aroha, Ruakaka, Avondale.

Now again I dont have buckets of data so I know that much of it is subjective. But its an edge on what the majority have and thats all that counts.

[Thomass]

3 hours ago, curious said:

Do you have any specific criteria (i.e. minimum length of straight) for backing horses with that racing style barryb? And do you have any hard data to suggest that those horses' chance increases on such tracks?

Oh ffs...stop pissing around curious

Tell Bazz his 'system' is totally f'ed and his 'ideas' are for long term losers

Anyone with punting salt knows algorithmic systems are the only way to go...

...and telling Punters "follow Ted..and anything opening at 8's and drifting...are two pots of gold" is lunatic fringe

Sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind...and now's the time for you and grass to be honest with him..just do it

[Thomass]

3 hours ago, barryb said:

I have in rough in running positions which is good enough to help predict tempo of the race & where a horse might settle, I know that from those likely settling positions & also have data which shows where the winners settled.

Unlike Mr T, I know its not a precise science but my information is right 60% of the time which is superior to most on the above.

For instance on these tracks I know that Leaders/On Pacers win significantly more than other venues. Te Awamutu, Te Aroha, Ruakaka, Avondale.

Now again I dont have buckets of data so I know that much of it is subjective. But its an edge on what the majority have and thats all that counts.

Just a wee point bazz

Why do you moan...incessantly...about selecting winners at Kaka and Avondale??

if you have it covered there?

 

[barryb]

1 hour ago, Thomass said:

Just a wee point bazz

Why do you moan...incessantly...about selecting winners at Kaka and Avondale??

if you have it covered there?

 

Idiot, if you need it made clear to you then it's time you found something else to do. You will only ever be a loser, I guess we knew this regardless.

[Thomass]

Oh cmon bazzo...simple question...if you have the answer on those courses

...maybe the question's completely f'd?

Getting back to hosses for courses though...it hasn't been mentioned at all on these threads

Its a big part of moi's algorithmic life though

Take LUCYINRIO..good record in Black type events..less convictions...

Blinkers on first time...and her course record increased the Units invested by 30%

Its counterintuitive to ignore standard form analysis like that...

...some horses simply enjoy a course's layout...especially HQ with all of its idiosyncrasies...and a course's texture of course

And then trained on the course is GOLD

Get on bazz 

[curious]

You better get that in the  BP mardi. New to me ....  30% increase for good course record. Not quite clear how you quantify that.

Edited December 10, 2018 by curious

[mardigras]

It doesn't take long for a decent discussion to degenerate into a pile of dung. Post race bullshit coupled with the usual.

Edited December 10, 2018 by mardigras

[mardigras]

5 minutes ago, curious said:

You better get that in the  BP mardi. New to me ....  30% increase for good course record. Not quite clear how you quantify that.

You don't quantify it. You need to wait til after they win as it's different for every horse - based on whether they win or not.

It's the same with the entire BP. They only meet the criteria after they've won. Before that, nope.

Edited December 10, 2018 by mardigras

[Thomass]

19 minutes ago, curious said:

You better get that in the  BP mardi. New to me ....  30% increase for good course record. Not quite clear how you quantify that.

Go on...do Bazz a favour...and all your other back slappin' go get 'em'followers' 

...they're on a highway to punting hell...

Ludicrous stuff like "follow Teds tips"....

with grasshead yip yipping Bazz's nutcase ways into a frenzy...

But it doesn't surprise me you don't think some horses handle some courses better than others

...Even grass admits he factors in left /right hand...

So methinks you constantly run with the Hounds...

...then try to cover your asses by talking absolute crap like

"we don't Assess track conditions...but we change chance because of it"

next

Edited December 11, 2018 by Thomass

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, Thomass said:

 

...Even grass admits he factors in left /right hand...

Yep, it is a very small part for me relating to confidence only. Same as track condition.

I want to assess ability. And make minor adjustments to chance based on factors in a race that aren't part of that assessment.

As I've said. 

[mardigras]

11 minutes ago, Thomass said:

 

"we don't Assess track conditions...but we change chance because of it"

Looks like you're having to resort to pretending to quote others, since what you quoted hadn't been written by me.

It's your usual style because you're too thick to understand English.

Next time, try quoting me, idiot.

Edited December 11, 2018 by mardigras

[barryb]

Haha, poor old Tommy the loser.

Absolutely NFI, what a total dickhead.

[FeelTheFear]

I'm starting to think Mr T is one of the Lizard people (Reptilians). 

[Thomass]

28 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Looks like you're having to resort to pretending to quote others, since what you quoted hadn't been written by me.

It's your usual style because you're too thick to understand English.

Next time, try quoting me, idiot.

On 10/12/2018 at 9:18 AM, mardigras said:

Good points barry. I don't change my assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance, but I do change my confidence in that assessment, which ultimately can effect my chance %.

Left and right handed is also something I use to adjust confidence. Things like that where the ability of the horse has not been shown as yet under the conditions of the race.

Edited December 11, 2018 by Thomass

[Thomass]

It's there for all to see

A load of SEMANTIC nonsense to make you sound highly technical...

So you don't change your odds for track assessment...but you change your confidence...

which means you relly relly do change your betting because of track conditions....

...and left/right...but not the same track...

...and now not much at all left/right

..due to the fact I'm spanking you silly

[mardigras]

Just now, Thomass said:

It's there for all to see

A load of SEMANTIC nonsense to make you sound highly technical...

So you don't change your odds for track assessment...but you change your confidence...

which means you relly relly do change your betting because of track conditions....

...and left/right...but not the same track...

...and now not much at all left/right

..due to the fact I'm spanking you silly

Thanks for confirming you don't understand English. 

My comment is that I don't change the assessment of the horse. Do you know what a horse is?

Nothing semantic at all. A horse is a horse and I assess it. 

Then I decide if there are any minor variances in the conditions of this race that will potentially affect it from running up to my assessment of the "horse".

You're a fwit. Get a damn education.

[Thomass]

29 minutes ago, barryb said:

Haha, poor old Tommy the loser.

Absolutely NFI, what a total dickhead.

The Blockheads 'rhythm stick' keeps popping up when I read you bazz

When you say you have Ruakaka and Avondale covered in form analysis 

Then complain in seperate threads you have no luck there

Wtf is wrong with your 'analysis' do you think iron stain?

Keep wackin' it bazz 

[mardigras]

On 10/12/2018 at 8:32 AM, mardigras said:

Yep, likely little difference between a 3 and a 5 in my view, but as per the Bonecrusher, my prices shifted a reasonable amount from an 8 to a 4. 

Look, a change in price/ chance.

On 10/12/2018 at 9:18 AM, mardigras said:

 I don't change my assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance

Look, no change in my assessment of the horse. The horse hasn't changed so why would my assessment of the horse have changed?

You certainly get the award for most stupid person. Well done.

[Thomass]

3 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Thanks for confirming you don't understand English. 

My comment is that I don't change the assessment of the horse. Do you know what a horse is?

Nothing semantic at all. A horse is a horse and I assess it. 

Then I decide if there are any minor variances in the conditions of this race that will potentially affect it from running up to my assessment of the "horse".

You're a fwit. Get a damn education.

Yea we get it

You changed two horses by 0.19 secs...after the S8 changed to D4

...But you "don't change your assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance"

...even though "distance is huge"

f me...go back to kindy blockhead

 

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Yea we get it

You changed two horses by 0.19 secs...after the S8 changed to D4

...But you "don't change your assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance

 

You got that right at last. Something that would take a 5yo no time at all. Took you days.

 

5 minutes ago, Thomass said:

But you "don't change your assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance"

...even though "distance is huge"

In what way is distance huge. Distance is minor and therefore I potentially make a minor adjustment. I don't expect a horse to be in the race if the distance is an issue, and if it is, my adjustment will easily deal with that. And it does.