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Bit Of A Yarn

Assessing Horses


hesi

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

In what way is distance huge. Distance is minor and therefore I potentially make a minor adjustment. I don't expect a horse to be in the race if the distance is an issue, and if it is, my adjustment will easily deal with that. And it does. 

Get a load of this total embarrassment 

It looks as if Grassi's ambidextrous 

The trouble is the left hand doesn't know what the right hand writes...

Because he's MAGOO....couldn't see a wood from a f in tree

Give up son

You're a dead set Walter Mitty

On 10/12/2018 at 8:32 AM, mardigras said:

And definitely distance, as for me that is a major component of my confidence level around my assessment of the horse's ability.

Edited by Thomass
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7 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Get a load of this total embarrassment 

It looks as if Grassi's ambidextrous 

The trouble is the left hand doesn't know what the right hand writes...

Because he's MAGOO....couldn't see a wood from a f in tree

Give up son

You're a dead set Walter Mitty

What you quoted applies. Distance is a confidence thing. Ability is separate.

Distance is a big factor of confidence and a zero factor in horse assessment - for me.

Which is what you quoted. Only you don't understand it.

So I'll repeat. Distance is not a factor in my assessment of the horse. Clear yet?

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2 hours ago, Thomass said:

The Blockheads 'rhythm stick' keeps popping up when I read you bazz

When you say you have Ruakaka and Avondale covered in form analysis 

Then complain in seperate threads you have no luck there

Wtf is wrong with your 'analysis' do you think iron stain?

Keep wackin' it bazz 

Stupid, I am guessing this is far beyond your comprehension but to help a farking dumb shit like you I will explain. 

The tracks I mention support a leader/On Pacer outcome, now what do you think happens dumbo?

There is a charge of the light brigade for the lead often at these tracks and getting the leader right becomes more of a guessing game.

Comprehend fu-kwit?.

PS: Dumb fark, go back to my post where I said it's not a precise science.

Your inability to punt is obvious to all, no need to keep informing us to what we know is a given.

Edited by barryb
Thomarse is a dumbo
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58 minutes ago, barryb said:

Stupid, I am guessing this is far beyond your comprehension but to help a farking dumb shit like you I will explain. 

Everything has to be explained to him in baby terms. Many races are won by a small margin, 'many' having nothing to do with % of the total.

X is a large component of something.

X is a minor component of something else.

His brain can't compute the difference. He's at the level of a kindergarten kid at best, although that's being unkind to kindergarten kids.

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4 hours ago, mardigras said:

What you quoted applies. Distance is a confidence thing. Ability is separate.

Distance is a big factor of confidence and a zero factor in horse assessment - for me.

Which is what you quoted. Only you don't understand it.

So I'll repeat. Distance is not a factor in my assessment of the horse. Clear yet?

You're a joke a minute...

So you majorly factor in distance, track conditions and left/ right into your ultimate 'investments'...

...but they all have "zero factor in horse assessment ABILTY"

what a flamin' fickhead semantic lovin' tool you is

All in the name of a massive ego you want massaged...

In future just tell your sycophants the plain truth

You 'massively' take track/distance/left/right wank hand into account

f me

 

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9 minutes ago, Thomass said:

You're a joke a minute...

So you majorly factor in distance, track conditions and left/ right into your ultimate 'investments'...

...but they all have "zero factor in horse assessment ABILTY"

what a flamin' fickhead semantic lovin' tool you is

All in the name of a massive ego you want massaged...

In future just tell your sycophants the plain truth

You 'massively' take track/distance/left/right wank hand into account

f me

 

I don't majorly factor those things in. Distance is a major factor in confidence. But still insignificant overall since ability is the major assessment.

It has nothing to do with my ego, but everything to do with your obsession with trying to make what I do, the subject of analysis, all because I've made you look like a total tool.

Nothing you say about what I do will make you any less of a tool. You're methods are flawed. Period.

 

Edited by mardigras
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3 hours ago, barryb said:

Stupid, I am guessing this is far beyond your comprehension but to help a farking dumb shit like you I will explain. 

The tracks I mention support a leader/On Pacer outcome, now what do you think happens dumbo?

There is a charge of the light brigade for the lead often at these tracks and getting the leader right becomes more of a guessing game.

Comprehend fu-kwit?.

PS: Dumb fark, go back to my post where I said it's not a precise science.

Your inability to punt is obvious to all, no need to keep informing us to what we know is a given.

So 60% of the time you have superior 'stats'

...and you're "significantly" ahead of the knowledge riddle on those front running courses...

...but you can't work out Kaka and the Dale?

Maybe go buy some cop the f on with a Whakachunga chaser??

Then do 'top 3' fastest like your bff does...

best

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

I don't majorly factor those things in. Distance is a major factor in confidence. But still insignificant overall since ability is the major assessment.

It has nothing to do with my ego, but everything to do with your obsession with trying to make what I do, the subject of analysis, all because I've made you look like a total tool.

Nothing you say about what I do will make you any less of a tool. You're methods are flawed. Period.

 

But you did

Changing your time assessment by 0.19 seconds...or over a length 

Simply due to the track condition...

You listed a whole bunch of gobbledygook to make out your 'system' was highly technical...

..when reality bit you on the ass

After I exposed your duplicitous 'explanation'...

...which was nothing more than normal form analysis

i.e track condition/ distance/ left/ right wancker stuff

basic 101 in anyone's lingo 

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1 minute ago, Thomass said:

But you did

Changing your time assessment by 0.19 seconds...or over a length 

Simply due to the track condition...

You listed a whole bunch of gobbledygook to make out your 'system' was highly technical...

..when reality bit you on the ass

After I exposed your duplicitous 'explanation'...

...which was nothing more than normal form analysis

i.e track condition/ distance/ left/ right wancker stuff

basic 101 in anyone's lingo 

There you go again. 1 length. Peanuts.

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14 minutes ago, barryb said:

Thomass has turned into a bigger wanker than normal in the last week, It must be all this money he is losing on the failed BP and the fact he has no spare money for doll patches.

I think we should in the spirit of Xmas all chip in and get T a new doll.

For someone that spends so much time telling everyone how good his methods are, he does go on a lot about others possibly winning, BGP, jockey agents etc and wanting things like tactic changes and penetrometer readings. 

Me thinks things are not what he makes them out to be. 

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My raisin de tear....the reason I get turned on every morning...after the Princess...

Is to spank tossers like you two...

The utter crap you two spin

"follow Teds tips...open at 8's...drifts out...get on"

ffs...then grass has the f in GAWL to tick LIKE boxes with that b/s on

Grass

"I don't take any notice of conditions/distance"

But he does

Some fickheads like ftf are hanging on your every word

And you keep dishing up utter bollocks like that..

f me

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48 minutes ago, mardigras said:

For someone that spends so much time telling everyone how good his methods are, he does go on a lot about others possibly winning, BGP, jockey agents etc and wanting things like tactic changes and penetrometer readings. 

Me thinks things are not what he makes them out to be. 

I hear that he is campaigning to get trainers to acknowledge how long before a race that a horse had a crap, how much it weighed and what colour it was. Is this true? He talks a lot of crap so perhaps so

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21 minutes ago, hesi said:

To what extent do you guys review your assessments

Horses running better than you assessed horses running worse and why

I don't on an individual basis. I review my assessments against the outcomes to test my assessments win at the rate I've collectively assessed them at. I.e Horses I assess as 10% chances, should have won 10% of the time, 2% should have won only 2%. For all levels of assessment. 

I'll only investigate further if a sample size of around 200,000 horses indicates I'm potentially out.

But if you are starting out using chance, then record keeping will help. And you'll certainly get indications of accuracy well before that many starts if things are not close. 10 weeks of NZ racing should give you at least a guide. That's around 4000 - 5000 horse starts.

Edited by mardigras
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1 hour ago, FeelTheFear said:

I hear that he is campaigning to get trainers to acknowledge how long before a race that a horse had a crap, how much it weighed and what colour it was. Is this true? He talks a lot of crap so perhaps so

What a bunch of crap you dial up

Take a look at the information available to HK Punters and you'll realise why Punters invest there

ignoramous

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1 hour ago, FeelTheFear said:

I hear that he is campaigning to get trainers to acknowledge how long before a race that a horse had a crap, how much it weighed and what colour it was. Is this true? He talks a lot of crap so perhaps so

He wants that crap because he can't win. He thinks he is missing the vital piece but for him, he's missing the complete plot.

He's wanted to know things like horses being taken to the beach and all sorts of stuff. Clearly the BP doesn't deliver the goods, so needs a few more generalisations to give him an edge. Which they won't do.

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1 minute ago, mardigras said:

He wants that crap because he can't win. He thinks he is missing the vital piece but for him, he's missing the complete plot.

He's wanted to know things like horses being taken to the beach and all sorts of stuff. Clearly the BP doesn't deliver the goods, so needs a few more generalisations to give him an edge. Which they won't do.

I see he has replied to me no doubt. He still can't get that I don't read his bullshit, have him blocked. Very slow on the uptake these common trolls

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