Turny Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 The VI is back on Sunday - short staffed at the institution I guess Take your meds VI that was part of the deal fir your 24 hour release 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 4 hours ago, barryb said: I personally try and avoid races with a runner below $2.00 & almost never back anything below $2.50. I know plenty of punters only bet in this range, but my mental make up means I struggle with short priced losers. I would generally back a rated 50% chance @ $2.50. Again, everyone's different and I do equally well on them as I do with say 4% chances but I avoid the latter because of the long runs of misses. You have to adapt to what you are comfortable with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Thomass said: Hilarious stuff ....yet again When I suggested WINX was a home run last year...You tipped summit else So it'll be interesting which neddy's a 100 per cent stone colder If WINX wasn't Probably because I didn't rate Winx a 100% chance and I don't tip anyway. If I did, I would probably have tipped her as my rated best chance. However, if I didn't think she was value and something else was overpriced based on my rating of its chance, then I would have recommended backing that. If it was a 1% chance paying $150, that would be value and at that price I need to land 1 in a hundred to be well ahead. Some on here have got the idea about winning but you obviously haven't, so stick to the BP and top the account up on Monday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, curious said: Probably because I didn't rate Winx a 100% chance and I don't tip anyway. If I did, I would probably have tipped her as my rated best chance. However, if I didn't think she was value and something else was overpriced based on my rating of its chance, then I would have recommended backing that. If it was a 1% chance paying $150, that would be value and at that price I need to land 1 in a hundred to be well ahead. Some on here have got the idea about winning but you obviously haven't, so stick to the BP and top the account up on Monday. Yes but it's all SUBJECTIVE nonsense this 'rating' system you and your bff partake in Based on times being able to be standardised and your 'simulation' experiments.... ...ignoring stuff like 'unlucky' and 'without cover'... ...critical determinative analysis when it comes to Australasian racing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 wtf is determanitive analysis as applied to betting? And I think you'll find it's the BP that's subjective. This is quantified methodology. And I don't do simulations. Mardi does. You can call it what you like. I call it a winner and the BP a loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Yes but it's all SUBJECTIVE nonsense this 'rating' system you and your bff partake in Based on times being able to be standardised and your 'simulation' experiments.... ...ignoring stuff like 'unlucky' and 'without cover'... ...critical determinative analysis when it comes to Australasian racing Says you, who can't even say which horses I put up are down in grade. What's the problem, too scared to show just how much crap the BP is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 19 hours ago, Thomass said: Yes but it's all SUBJECTIVE nonsense this 'rating' system you and your bff partake in All assessments are subjective idiot. The main difference between people's assessments is that yours are based on generalisations (i.e. flawed), and astute punters won't use generalisations like your blue print. If you had ever been educated, you would know that it is not possible for the generalisations that you use to work in punting. It has nothing to do with my opinion. They are flawed. The evidence I have put up would make most people realise that even if they don't know why they are flawed - just as you don't know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 He will never get it - he is the VI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 23 hours ago, curious said: wtf is determanitive analysis as applied to betting? And I think you'll find it's the BP that's subjective. This is quantified methodology. And I don't do simulations. Mardi does. You can call it what you like. I call it a winner and the BP a loser. How thick are you? Its ALL SUBJECTIVE.... However my critical analysis on SUPERIOR PERFORMANCES is beyond your understanding....you can't even "quantify" simple stuff like 'unlucky' or 'without cover' Your "methodology" is so corrupted by bum stats...that you don't even invest here.. Thats how good you are... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thomass said: ....you can't even "quantify" simple stuff like 'unlucky' or 'without cover' . Neither can you, Mr 40% loss on turnover. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Hilarious. The one guy that uses stats going on about the people like me, that don't use stats. Idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just this once then Explain how you came to the reasoning that ROCK ON was value Ive shown my technique with him A young stayer...goes to Sydney...matures him into a real man...rubber stamps that with a G2 3 rd on an unsuitable track...comes back and is very unlucky...something you don't and can't quantify Magoo... ...in a G1 WFA...breaks down without winning an Open Handicap... ...and starts this race off the minimum because of that...good prep runs over shorter distances... ...home track adds 20% after winning there...Simple az your turn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Thomass said: your turn I liked its name & colour. About as effective as the shit you just posted above. Edited December 23, 2018 by barryb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 For me, the letter R was the letter of the day. Also as useful as that BP shit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I like when a horse craps on the track before the race, extra 20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Of course you cant Bereft of any critical analysis whatsoever Horse psychology is a complete mystery to you....Its all pure stats from point a to b No deviation, no unlucky, no without cover, 20,000 simulations...and you get your rocks off Rock on losers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thomass said: Of course you cant Bereft of any critical analysis whatsoever I've done heaps of critical analysis. Most of it aimed, quite appropriately, at the blue print. How could anyone be anything but critical of that pile of shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Actually Mardi, I must confess to using the BP to find Rock On. I used all the principles that T has mentioned, pure gold it is, I removed all of those that qualified as I was looking for a back selection, ended up with Rock On as the pick. Thanks must go to T for helping us see which bets are a loss of 40% over the long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 2 hours ago, Thomass said: However my critical analysis on SUPERIOR PERFORMANCES is beyond your understanding... You don't do 'Superior Performances', you do 'Superior Class of race'. Sadly they do not correlate with each other. And what you do certainly isn't beyond understanding. It just isn't worth being used. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 4 hours ago, Thomass said: ...you can't even "quantify" simple stuff like 'unlucky' or 'without cover' We don't need to but that doesn't seem to be sinking in. Just like we don't need to know about gear changes, wind ops, barrier draws, weight, class of race, jump out form, or anything that you think is important. Of course I know people who do successfully consider some of those things, before the race, that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 25, 2018 Author Share Posted December 25, 2018 Ok 2 collects 2 scratchings $1,058 overall total $9,018 Ellerslie R4 Lincoln Falls *2-70/3-50 $129W R6 Annie Okay *7-90/11-00 $41W R9 Jon Snow *5-50/7-00 $65W Wingatui R4 Princess Brook *3-80/5-00 $90W R6 Tommy Tucker *7-30/10-00 $45W R6 Morse Code *6-90/14-00 $33W Sunshine Coast R6 Spirit andFire *1-90/2-67 boost $169W Randwick R1 Welsh Legend *2-80/4-00 $113W R2 Hafaawa *4-00/5-17 boost $88W R4 Mileage *11-00/16-00 $29W R7 Alward *9-80/14-00 $33W R7- Fierce Impact *4-10/5-29 boost $86W OB $9,018 Investment $921 Closing balance $8,097 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 26, 2018 Author Share Posted December 26, 2018 (edited) 3 winners returning $1,355 Balance $9,452 So we have taken everything in that we possibly can some stuff has gone right over the top Insider trading was something I gave zero thought to ....but once again it does exist something that is out of our control When I think about Hong Kong it was like turning the switch on, insider trading is probably at it’s strongest there, it’s hand is only shown as the last half dozen move into the gates significant betting moves are made within seconds of jump time, how does one counter act that.....I wonder if one could discover Inside trading being hidden within the exotic pools that are available in Duets and Quinella’s I will analyse these pools over the next few months and highlight the unders in the exotics in comparison to their win odds and then see if there’s a late betting move towards them as they move into the gates So insider trading has existed in racing from as far as you can go back I can recall when I was at Wexford we had a first starter by the name of Zephyr Souba we had massive wraps on her we had her winning the Matamata Breeders stakes before she had even raced, I was at the trials the day DJ told Lance to settle her at the back and hold her together and let her run home through the field to educate her she ran 3rd beaten 1 length by 2 lengths something like that if let go she would have smacked them Anywho she was nominated for Pukekohe January 82 Jock Caddigan was aboard Lance was booked to ride at Trentham publications Best Bets Turf Digest and the likes had her ran 3rd at trial safely held she was picked by a couple to run 2nd or 3rd We unloaded she opened $1-20 it was a matter of by how far..... Well she ran 2nd beaten a head there was another first starter in the race that day who ended up a group 1 winner Aulyn When Mike Moroney returned with her I asked him WTF happened he replied he rode her like a school kid having his first ride yip even when you think you have an edge on the rest they can come unstuck Off course Zephyr Souba is the dam of Naturalism Edited December 26, 2018 by VC! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 26, 2018 Author Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just the one today R7 Belle Fascino *2-60/4-50 PB$105W 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 27, 2018 Author Share Posted December 27, 2018 Only the one collect today OB after our 1 Bet 9,347 CB 9,819 Gosford next up not a great deal of value so using our tools that are available to boost our odds it has to be remembered we are generally quoting unders as when doing this properly you would most of the time get on at BF at much bigger odds 4 races at Gosford book set to 115% I do this all the time now betting to collect $490 5% R2 Prophets Thumb *1-65/$2-12 price boost Ned’s $232W R2 Vega *$6-75/$7-50 $66W R4 Exceltic *2-10/$2-93 price boost Ned’s $168W R5 Military Zone 2-70/$3-30 power play Sportsbet $149W R5 Terminolgy *8-00/$10-00 $49W R5 Dio D’oro *12/19-00 Nsw Tab $26W R6 Aloisia *2-90/$3-94 price boost Ned’s $125W R6 Pecans *7-20/$11-00 Sportsbet $45W 2 winners needed out of 4 races to make profit Invested $860 closing balance $8,959 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 No idea what you are doing and yet I follow fascinated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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