VC! Posted December 27, 2018 Author Share Posted December 27, 2018 15 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: No idea what you are doing and yet I follow fascinated. That makes two of us Mate I wish you all the very best on your quest to make profit hope you can do it small steps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 19 minutes ago, VC! said: That makes two of us Mate I wish you all the very best on your quest to make profit hope you can do it small steps? cheers mate, I am playing around with something at the moment that could be great or a disaster...love it. Keep up the fascinating post, I have my fingers crossed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 winners and a scratching from the 4 races Prophets Thumb ..Ex Celtic..Military Zone ....Aloisia scratched today’s collects $1,601 Opening Balance 8,959 Closing Balance $10,560 Until tomorrow where we will be betting to win $528 per selection 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 Matamata R1 Wild Seas *2-20/2-90 odds Boost $182W R3 He’s a Gold Digger *2-90/$4-09 price boost $130W R4 Marija *3-60/4-80 $110W R5 Scomo Eagle *14/26-00 $21-00W R7 Cha Siu Bailey *4-20/5-50 $96-00 Stratford R6 Red Rascal *8-60/13-00 $41-00W R7 Gorbachev *2-75/3-68 price boost $144W. Korakonui *12-00/20-00 $27W Moonee Valley R1 Yes Yes Yes *1-60/$2-13 price boost $248W R4 Soul Star *3-20/5-50power play $96-00W Doomben R5 Vinrose *18-00/71-00 bet boost $8 R6 Chess Star *4-90/7-50 $71W Granny Red Shoes *13/20-00 $27W R7 Flow *4-20/6-00 odds boost $88 R9 Jorda *6-50/12-00 $44W Randwick R3 Bondi *2-60/2-90 $182W R6 Alizee *1-85/2-25 $235W R7 Berdibek *6-50/10-00 $53W R8 After All That *11-80/19-00 $28W Southern Lad *4-60/6-00 $88W R9 Pumpkin Pie *6-10/8-50 $63W Opening balance $10,560 today’s investment $1,982 Closing balance $8,578 Today’s watch horse is in R1 Randwick Yitai Synergy could be alright I priced it at 2-10 opened 2-80 now close to even money 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 29, 2018 Author Share Posted December 29, 2018 Opening Balance $8,578 4 collects yesterday Wild Seas, Cha Siu Bao, Yes Yes Yes, Alizee $2,112 Closing Balance $10,690 Just the one race today Kurow Cup Son of Maher *3-80/5-22 price boost $103W Montoya Star *4-00/5-50 Bet Boost $98W Closing Balance $10,489 Alizee drifted to $2-90 this bullshit is media driven 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Opening Balance $10-489 Gosford R1 La Parva *2-60/$3-30 price boost $159W R4 Kings Order *3-60/4-50 odds boost $117W R4 Vinci Lady *3-15/3-97 price boost $133W R7 Heloise *$5-50/10-03 price boost $53W Nowra R2 In the Zone *3-00/4-60 odds boost $115W Total spend $577 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 (edited) One collect $528 Balance $10,440 Ellerslie R6 Sarabande *10-00/19-00 $28W R6 Treasure *7-00/10-00 $53W R7 Megablast *12-00/26-00 $21W R8 Blue Breeze *26-00/51-00 $11W R8 Excalibur *9-80/15-00 $35W R9 Bostonian *3-40/4-92 PB $107W Livin on a prayer *16-00/26-00 $21-00W Sleeping Beauty *35-00/101-00 *6-00 R10 Giant Gen *5-50/9-50 $55-00W Flemington R2 Long Leaf *2-25/3-00 PP $174-00W All too Huiying *14/21-00 $25-00W Randwick R4 Belladeal *2-90/4-90 PB $107-00W. Bring the Magic’s *6-80/10-00 $53-00W R6 Seahampton *3-82/4-70 $112W R8 Laburnum *2-65/3-57 PB $147W Opening Balance 10,440 Investments $955 Closing Balance $9,485 New Years day racing used to be my favourite race day of the year when I was at High School the whole Ellerslie carnival 26th 28th 1st and the 2nd the real Auckland Cup was run New Years Day we gave Jock Caddigan a bagging for his ride on Zephyr Souba but what a masterful ride on Kotare Chief to win the Auckland Cup and the Railway who could ever forget Diamond Lover yip those were the days not quite the same for me these days Happy New Year to everyone most of all I hope everyone enjoys a healthy 2019 Edited December 31, 2018 by VC! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 And a couple at Hastings R1 One Prize One Goal *3-90/5-00 $105W R5 Yearn *3-20/3-70 $164W R5 Flamingo *5-00/7-00 $75W Total $344 Closing Balance $9,141 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 winner 1 scratching $551 collected Balance $9,692 Geelong R1 Favourite Things *1-90/2-54 price boost $191W Kembla Grange R3 Navigator *2-10/3-16 price boost $154W R4 Misteed *2-80/3-70 odds boost $131W R6 Rexx *2-90/6-00 power play $81W Futures 2yr olds MM 12/01/2019 Czarson $15-50 power play tomorrow as you only get 1 a day $100 Win ($1550 return) Czarson trialled with stablemate Unite and Conquer on 27th December heat 4 they ran 1st and 2nd in the trial 8 lengths back to third Czarson trialled the better Have priced a few races at Te Aroha but don’t have any odds yet so not sure if I have value likely post them tomorrow Opening Balance $9692 Invested $657-00 including $100 Czarson Closing Balance $9,035 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 Finding my markets are now coming into line with the TAB so will increase to 120% and anything I don’t think will win will price more accordingly Te Aroha Opening Balance $9,035 R5 Adrossan *$1-60/2-01 price boost $241W R6 Lucidity *2-70/3-32 price boost $146W R7 Rondinella *3-10/3-81 price boost $125W R8 Damesel *3-80/6-00 odds boost $81W Total $596 Closing Balance $8,439 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 winner 1 scratching return $565 Balance $9,004 Friday Canterbury R2 Vegadaze *3-80/7-00 $65W R2 Lashes *4-10/7-00 $65W R3 Asiago *4-90/10-00 $45W R3 Howra *8-50/20-00 $23W R6 Savvy Ken *1-80/2-53 PB $178W R8 Transmitter *6-00/11-00 $41W Saturday Caulfield R2 Cincinnati Red *1-95/2-90 odds boost $156W R6 Mission Hill *5-70/9-50 $48W R9 Barthelona *5-10/10-00 $45W Randwick R1 Hightail *3-20/4-80 $94W R1 24 Carat *5-40/9-50 48W R4 Botti *7-00/12-00 $38W R5 Charlayne *6-50/10-00 $45W R5 Kawaikini *9-00/18-00 $25W R7 Invinzabeel *4-00/6-00 $75W R7 Emperors Way *8-00/16-00 $29W R8 Darktown Strutter *5-80/10-00 $45W R8 Rebel Miss *4-40/8/50 $53W Gold Coast R5 Suspense *4-60/13-00 $35W OB $9,004 total spend $1,153 Closing Balance $7,851 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 winners and a scratching $941 collected Balance $8,792 Doomben R4 Ignite the light *2-40/3-32 price boost $1-33W R4 Cabin Fever *2-40/3-00 power play $147W $280 spend Balance $8,512 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Good stuff VC. Have you looked at your pricing retrospectively to identify how your pricing relates with success rate (maybe also for others runners not backed), to see how your assessment of chance overall is in line. I know the sample may not be huge, but would be interesting to see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 hours ago, mardigras said: Good stuff VC. Have you looked at your pricing retrospectively to identify how your pricing relates with success rate (maybe also for others runners not backed), to see how your assessment of chance overall is in line. I know the sample may not be huge, but would be interesting to see. No I haven’t appreciate all the advice you have given will have a scroll through everything Will also analyse where my most returns are coming from eg NZ Sydney or Melbourne Just going off spec I would say my strongest ratings would be Sydney Plenty of fine tuning required I’m close I will look at what you mentioned I’m not one 2 give up Cheers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 $441 collected Balance $8,953 Gosford R1 Koonuga *3-60/5-19PBoost $87W R1 Sergeant *3-80/5-00 PPlay $90W R2 Miraculous *3-20/6-50 OBoost $69W R7 Walk The Runway *6-00/11-00 BBoost $41W R7 Everleigh *5-10/9-88 PBoost $46W Total spend $333 Balance $8,620 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just my observation VC... slowly but surely , you are giving your 10k bank to the "Pricks" LOL and I can,t see with this system "it getting any better" with any game changing collects ! Reckon you may be up the front of the GA class admitting your sins... Mate, I cant talk...Hence, only punt for fun these days (mostly % exotics for a small %) Have you tried a staking plan...returning to bet 1, after a win...( I hav,nt got the Patience ...but you might have) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 33 minutes ago, porky said: Just my observation VC... slowly but surely , you are giving your 10k bank to the "Pricks" LOL and I can,t see with this system "it getting any better" with any game changing collects ! Reckon you may be up the front of the GA class admitting your sins... Mate, I cant talk...Hence, only punt for fun these days (mostly % exotics for a small %) Have you tried a staking plan...returning to bet 1, after a win...( I hav,nt got the Patience ...but you might have) I disagree. I think it is a valuable exercise and decent of VC to put this up. It started on the 12 December and on the 1st January, was in profit. Now a little down. But it is an exercise with potentially some learning along the way. I'm not sure what you mean by a staking plan where you say 'returning to bet 1, after a win'. I certainly hope I've misinterpreted that and you aren't suggesting a staking plan where you increase your bet when you lose until such time as you win. That would be the absolute worst thing anyone should do. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yeahhh, that's a sure road to the poor house where you'll be able to have a beer with +30% Thomass porky. I think your staking plan is fine VC!. Interested if you have had a chance to review your assessment as Mardi suggested. Mardi, Barryb or others may have a better suggestion but I often do that with small samples after the first couple of weeks of a meeting to make sure that I'm still tracking where I was at the last meeting at that track. I just order/select/group my results data say into 15-19.99% chances, 20 - 22.99% etc. and then test whether results are giving me a winning strike rate somewhere in those ranges. Doesn't take long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, mardigras said: I disagree. I think it is a valuable exercise and decent of VC to put this up. It started on the 12 December and on the 1st January, was in profit. Now a little down. But it is an exercise with potentially some learning along the way. I'm not sure what you mean by a staking plan where you say 'returning to bet 1, after a win'. I certainly hope I've misinterpreted that and you aren't suggesting a staking plan where you increase your bet when you lose until such time as you win. That would be the absolute worst thing anyone should do. agree , but you need some sort of "plan" and "Bank"... VC is holding out well with his odds shopping and % of winners. I havn,t got the time, BUT ...1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9 bets...return to 1 after ea. losing bet (double bank,double bets) how would he have gone with all his bets above ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, porky said: agree , but you need some sort of "plan" and "Bank"... VC is holding out well with his odds shopping and % of winners. I havn,t got the time, BUT ...1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9 bets...return to 1 after ea. losing bet (double bank,double bets) how would he have gone with all his bets above ? Do you mean escalating bet amounts in that pattern till you win? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, curious said: Yeahhh, that's a sure road to the poor house where you'll be able to have a beer with +30% Thomass porky. I think your staking plan is fine VC!. Interested if you have had a chance to review your assessment as Mardi suggested. Mardi, Barryb or others may have a better suggestion but I often do that with small samples after the first couple of weeks of a meeting to make sure that I'm still tracking where I was at the last meeting at that track. I just order/select/group my results data say into 15-19.99% chances, 20 - 22.99% etc. and then test whether results are giving me a winning strike rate somewhere in those ranges. Doesn't take long. Haven’t had a chance yet but will do One has to make mistakes along the way but an exercise like this is only beneficial if I can learn along the way hopefully others if only a few are learning along with me We’re actually only 2 winners away from being in profit Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, porky said: Have you tried a staking plan...returning to bet 1, after a win...( I hav,nt got the Patience ...but you might have) Patience I have and I have a staking plan I’m betting to win 5% of my bank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, porky said: agree , but you need some sort of "plan" and "Bank"... VC is holding out well with his odds shopping and % of winners. I havn,t got the time, BUT ...1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9 bets...return to 1 after ea. losing bet (double bank,double bets) how would he have gone with all his bets above ? That's what I was hoping I had misinterpreted. VC has a bank, and a staking plan. It's a decent plan. A plan like yours will ultimately lead to no money. It is inevitable as most people will not a) have sufficient capital to continue with it b) you won't get the bet on at the level/odds required c) you will pull out because you won't have the balls to keep going In any event, they are not to be followed. It's like going to the casino and putting your money on black in roulette. And every time it isn't black, doubling up. Do that starting from $1 and after 20 losses, you are expecting to put up $1m on the next spin. If you think it won't go for 20 turns not black, then you are mistaken. It will happen, you just don't know when. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I said to start off with I don,t have the patience to run with the staking plan above !... it is based on backing a $4 winner one time in ten (or 2x$2places) or (3x$1.70 places)...dbl bank / Dbl bets Which I,m more than capable of....but don,t choose to. ( I cop out on your point c, Mardigras) I reckon there is better value / fun, in exotics / all ups Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 45 minutes ago, VC! said: Haven’t had a chance yet but will do One has to make mistakes along the way but an exercise like this is only beneficial if I can learn along the way hopefully others if only a few are learning along with me We’re actually only 2 winners away from being in profit Cheers I've made plenty of mistakes along my journey to find 'The Holy Grail'. 'The Holy Fail' is a much easier path. Anyway, I prefer to call them learning edges. There is learning in a failure as there is in a success, sometimes more so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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