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VC!

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19 minutes ago, VC! said:

That makes two of us

Mate I wish you all the very best on your quest to make profit hope you can do it small steps?

cheers mate, I am playing around with something at the moment that could be great or a disaster...love it. Keep up the fascinating post, I have my fingers crossed. 

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3 winners and a scratching from the 4 races Prophets Thumb ..Ex Celtic..Military Zone ....Aloisia scratched today’s collects $1,601

Opening Balance 8,959 Closing Balance $10,560

Until tomorrow where we will be betting to win $528 per selection 

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Matamata

R1 Wild Seas *2-20/2-90 odds Boost $182W

R3 He’s a Gold Digger *2-90/$4-09 price boost $130W

R4 Marija *3-60/4-80 $110W

R5 Scomo Eagle *14/26-00 $21-00W

R7 Cha Siu Bailey *4-20/5-50 $96-00

 

Stratford

R6 Red Rascal *8-60/13-00 $41-00W

R7 Gorbachev *2-75/3-68 price boost $144W. Korakonui *12-00/20-00 $27W

 

Moonee Valley

R1 Yes Yes Yes *1-60/$2-13 price boost $248W

R4 Soul Star *3-20/5-50power play $96-00W

 

Doomben

R5 Vinrose *18-00/71-00 bet boost $8

R6 Chess Star *4-90/7-50 $71W  Granny Red Shoes *13/20-00 $27W

R7 Flow *4-20/6-00 odds boost $88

R9 Jorda *6-50/12-00 $44W

 

Randwick

R3 Bondi *2-60/2-90 $182W

R6 Alizee *1-85/2-25 $235W

R7 Berdibek *6-50/10-00 $53W

R8 After All That *11-80/19-00 $28W  Southern Lad *4-60/6-00 $88W

R9 Pumpkin Pie *6-10/8-50 $63W

 

Opening balance $10,560 today’s investment $1,982 Closing balance $8,578

Today’s watch horse is in R1 Randwick Yitai Synergy could be alright I priced it at 2-10 opened 2-80 now close to even money 

 

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Opening Balance $8,578 4 collects yesterday Wild Seas, Cha Siu Bao, Yes Yes Yes, Alizee  $2,112  Closing Balance $10,690

Just the one race today Kurow Cup

Son of Maher *3-80/5-22 price boost $103W

Montoya Star *4-00/5-50 Bet Boost $98W

Closing Balance $10,489

Alizee drifted to $2-90 this bullshit is media driven

 

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Opening Balance $10-489

Gosford 

R1 La Parva *2-60/$3-30 price boost $159W

R4 Kings Order *3-60/4-50 odds boost $117W

R4 Vinci Lady *3-15/3-97 price boost $133W

R7 Heloise *$5-50/10-03 price boost $53W

 

Nowra

R2 In the Zone *3-00/4-60 odds boost $115W

Total spend $577

 

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One collect $528 Balance $10,440

Ellerslie

R6 Sarabande *10-00/19-00 $28W

R6 Treasure *7-00/10-00 $53W

R7 Megablast *12-00/26-00 $21W

R8 Blue Breeze *26-00/51-00 $11W

R8 Excalibur *9-80/15-00 $35W

R9 Bostonian *3-40/4-92 PB $107W Livin on a prayer *16-00/26-00 $21-00W Sleeping Beauty *35-00/101-00 *6-00

R10 Giant Gen *5-50/9-50 $55-00W

Flemington

R2 Long Leaf *2-25/3-00 PP $174-00W All too Huiying *14/21-00 $25-00W

Randwick

R4 Belladeal *2-90/4-90 PB $107-00W. Bring the Magic’s *6-80/10-00 $53-00W

R6 Seahampton *3-82/4-70 $112W

R8 Laburnum *2-65/3-57 PB $147W

Opening Balance 10,440 Investments $955 Closing Balance $9,485

New Years day racing used to be my favourite race day of the year when I was at High School the whole Ellerslie carnival 26th 28th 1st and the 2nd the real Auckland Cup was run New Years Day we gave Jock Caddigan a bagging for his ride on Zephyr Souba but what a masterful ride on Kotare Chief to win the Auckland Cup and the Railway who could ever forget Diamond Lover yip those were the days not quite the same for me these days

Happy New Year to everyone most of all I hope everyone enjoys a healthy 2019

 

Edited by VC!
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1 winner 1 scratching $551 collected

Balance $9,692

 

Geelong

R1 Favourite Things *1-90/2-54 price boost $191W

Kembla Grange

R3 Navigator *2-10/3-16 price boost $154W

R4 Misteed *2-80/3-70 odds boost $131W

R6 Rexx *2-90/6-00 power play $81W

 

Futures 

2yr olds MM 12/01/2019

Czarson $15-50 power play tomorrow as you only get 1 a day $100 Win ($1550 return)

Czarson trialled with stablemate Unite and Conquer on 27th December heat 4 they ran 1st and 2nd in the trial 8 lengths back to third Czarson trialled the better

Have priced a few races at Te Aroha but don’t have any odds yet so not sure if I have value likely post them tomorrow 

Opening Balance $9692 Invested $657-00 including $100 Czarson Closing Balance $9,035

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Finding my markets are now coming into line with the TAB so will increase to 120% and anything I don’t think will win will price more accordingly 

Te Aroha Opening Balance $9,035

R5 Adrossan *$1-60/2-01 price boost $241W

R6 Lucidity *2-70/3-32 price boost $146W

R7 Rondinella *3-10/3-81 price boost $125W

R8 Damesel *3-80/6-00 odds boost $81W

Total $596 Closing Balance $8,439

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1 winner 1 scratching return $565 Balance $9,004

Friday Canterbury 

R2 Vegadaze *3-80/7-00 $65W

R2 Lashes *4-10/7-00 $65W

R3 Asiago *4-90/10-00 $45W

R3 Howra *8-50/20-00 $23W

R6 Savvy Ken *1-80/2-53 PB $178W

R8 Transmitter *6-00/11-00 $41W

 

Saturday 

Caulfield

R2 Cincinnati Red *1-95/2-90 odds boost $156W

R6 Mission Hill *5-70/9-50 $48W

R9 Barthelona *5-10/10-00 $45W

Randwick

R1 Hightail *3-20/4-80 $94W

R1 24 Carat *5-40/9-50 48W

R4 Botti *7-00/12-00 $38W

R5 Charlayne *6-50/10-00 $45W

R5 Kawaikini *9-00/18-00 $25W

R7 Invinzabeel *4-00/6-00 $75W

R7 Emperors Way *8-00/16-00 $29W

R8 Darktown Strutter *5-80/10-00 $45W

R8 Rebel Miss *4-40/8/50 $53W

Gold Coast

R5 Suspense *4-60/13-00 $35W

OB $9,004 total spend $1,153 Closing Balance $7,851

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Good stuff VC. Have you looked at your pricing retrospectively to identify how your pricing relates with success rate (maybe also for others runners not backed), to see how your assessment of chance overall is in line. 

I know the sample may not be huge, but would be interesting to see.

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3 hours ago, mardigras said:

Good stuff VC. Have you looked at your pricing retrospectively to identify how your pricing relates with success rate (maybe also for others runners not backed), to see how your assessment of chance overall is in line. 

I know the sample may not be huge, but would be interesting to see.

No I haven’t  appreciate all the advice you have given will have a scroll through everything 

Will also analyse where my most returns are coming from eg NZ Sydney or Melbourne 

Just going off spec I would say my strongest ratings would be Sydney 

Plenty of fine tuning required I’m close I will look at what you mentioned 

I’m not one 2 give up

Cheers

 

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$441 collected Balance $8,953

Gosford

R1 Koonuga *3-60/5-19PBoost $87W

R1 Sergeant *3-80/5-00 PPlay $90W

R2 Miraculous *3-20/6-50 OBoost $69W

R7 Walk The Runway *6-00/11-00 BBoost $41W

R7 Everleigh *5-10/9-88 PBoost $46W

Total spend $333 Balance $8,620

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Just my observation VC... slowly but surely , you are giving your 10k bank to the "Pricks" LOL

and I can,t see with this system "it getting any better" with any game changing collects !

Reckon you may be up the front of the GA class admitting your sins...

Mate, I cant talk...Hence, only punt for fun these days (mostly % exotics for a small %)

Have you tried a staking plan...returning to bet 1, after a win...( I hav,nt got the Patience ...but you might have)

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33 minutes ago, porky said:

Just my observation VC... slowly but surely , you are giving your 10k bank to the "Pricks" LOL

and I can,t see with this system "it getting any better" with any game changing collects !

Reckon you may be up the front of the GA class admitting your sins...

Mate, I cant talk...Hence, only punt for fun these days (mostly % exotics for a small %)

Have you tried a staking plan...returning to bet 1, after a win...( I hav,nt got the Patience ...but you might have)

 I disagree. I think it is a valuable exercise and decent of VC to put this up.

It started on the 12 December and on the 1st January, was in profit. Now a little down. But it is an exercise with potentially some learning along the way.

I'm not sure what you mean by a staking plan where you say 'returning to bet 1, after a win'. I certainly hope I've misinterpreted that and you aren't suggesting a staking plan where you increase your bet when you lose until such time as you win. That would be the absolute worst thing anyone should do.

 

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Yeahhh, that's a sure road to the poor house where you'll be able to have a beer with +30% Thomass porky. I think your staking plan is fine VC!. Interested if you have had a chance to review your assessment as Mardi suggested. Mardi, Barryb or others may have a better suggestion but I often do that with small samples after the first couple of weeks of a meeting to make sure that I'm still tracking where I was at the last meeting at that track. I just order/select/group my results data say into 15-19.99% chances, 20 - 22.99% etc. and then test whether results are giving me a winning strike rate somewhere in those ranges. Doesn't take long.

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13 minutes ago, mardigras said:

 I disagree. I think it is a valuable exercise and decent of VC to put this up.

It started on the 12 December and on the 1st January, was in profit. Now a little down. But it is an exercise with potentially some learning along the way.

I'm not sure what you mean by a staking plan where you say 'returning to bet 1, after a win'. I certainly hope I've misinterpreted that and you aren't suggesting a staking plan where you increase your bet when you lose until such time as you win. That would be the absolute worst thing anyone should do.

 

agree , but you need some sort of "plan" and "Bank"...

VC is holding out well with his odds shopping and % of winners.

I havn,t got the time, BUT ...1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9 bets...return to 1 after ea. losing bet (double bank,double bets)

how would he have gone with all his bets above ?

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12 minutes ago, porky said:

agree , but you need some sort of "plan" and "Bank"...

VC is holding out well with his odds shopping and % of winners.

I havn,t got the time, BUT ...1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9 bets...return to 1 after ea. losing bet (double bank,double bets)

how would he have gone with all his bets above ?

Do you mean escalating bet amounts in that pattern till you win?

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16 minutes ago, curious said:

Yeahhh, that's a sure road to the poor house where you'll be able to have a beer with +30% Thomass porky. I think your staking plan is fine VC!. Interested if you have had a chance to review your assessment as Mardi suggested. Mardi, Barryb or others may have a better suggestion but I often do that with small samples after the first couple of weeks of a meeting to make sure that I'm still tracking where I was at the last meeting at that track. I just order/select/group my results data say into 15-19.99% chances, 20 - 22.99% etc. and then test whether results are giving me a winning strike rate somewhere in those ranges. Doesn't take long.

Haven’t had a chance yet but will do 

One has to make mistakes along the way but an exercise like this is only beneficial if I can learn along the way hopefully others if only a few are learning along with me

We’re actually only 2 winners away from being in profit

Cheers

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16 minutes ago, porky said:

agree , but you need some sort of "plan" and "Bank"...

VC is holding out well with his odds shopping and % of winners.

I havn,t got the time, BUT ...1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9 bets...return to 1 after ea. losing bet (double bank,double bets)

how would he have gone with all his bets above ?

That's what I was hoping I had misinterpreted. 

VC has a bank, and a staking plan. It's a decent plan. 

A plan like yours will ultimately lead to no money. It is inevitable as most people will not 

a) have sufficient capital to continue with it

b) you won't get the bet on at the level/odds required

c) you will pull out because you won't have the balls to keep going

In any event, they are not to be followed. It's like going to the casino and putting your money on black in roulette. And every time it isn't black, doubling up. Do that starting from $1 and after 20 losses, you are expecting to put up $1m on the next spin. If you think it won't go for 20 turns not black, then you are mistaken. It will happen, you just don't know when.

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I said to start off with I don,t have the patience to run with the staking plan above !...

it is based on backing a $4 winner one time in ten (or 2x$2places) or (3x$1.70 places)...dbl bank / Dbl bets

Which I,m more than capable of....but don,t choose to. ( I cop out on your point c, Mardigras)

I reckon there is better value / fun, in exotics / all ups

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45 minutes ago, VC! said:

Haven’t had a chance yet but will do 

One has to make mistakes along the way but an exercise like this is only beneficial if I can learn along the way hopefully others if only a few are learning along with me

We’re actually only 2 winners away from being in profit

Cheers

I've made plenty of mistakes along my journey to find 'The Holy Grail'. 'The Holy Fail' is a much easier path. Anyway, I prefer to call them learning edges. There is learning in a failure as there is in a success, sometimes more so.

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