Tauranga Saturday 8 race analysis and selections

[Chief Stipe]

Tauranga race scratchings

R1: 5

R2:

R3:

R4: 6

R5: 10

R6:

R7: 1,6

R8: 4,10

TAB Meeting #2 First race starts 12.45pm 

 

Doubles:              1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8

Trebles:                2-3-4, 6-7-8

Quaddies:           1-2-3-4, 5-6-7-8

Track conditions: Dead 5

Weather:                Showery

Rail:                        Out 6 Metres

Track:                     Right Hand 1800 metres

Straight:                 350 Metres

Race 3: #5 JOY ANNA $18 Win (FOB $6.50)

Race 5: Quaddie 1-2-3-4-6/6-7-10-11/3-5/1-2-7-8 ($16 = 10%)

Race 8: #8 SPEECHMAKER $8 Win (FOB $18) $2 Quinella 8/1-2-6-7 (Cost $8)

Race 1: Best bet PALAMEDES made an adequate start to her career last year including a close 2^nd at Te Awamutu, she prefers wet tracks and should be a lot stronger this time in, she looked forward when winning a recent trial, goes close. ALL PAID UP was ridden out hands and heels to win his latest trial, he sat outside the leader, he knuckled down well in the straight, he looks a winner at short notice, each way. NICHE is a veteran of 4 trials so will be well educated as most are from her stable, she showed pace to lead up when finishing runner up at her most recent trial, she won’t be far away from her good draw. SHIPSHAPE hasn’t started since early January, prior to her short let up she was not too far away and should still have a fitness edge of some of her rivals, include in wider multiples.

 

Race 2: Best bet BOLT FROM THE BLUE was an impressive winner on debut over the 800 metres, then was just beaten a nose at her next by what turned out to be one of our better 3 years olds, he had had enough when beaten at his last start but when you look who won that race then to only be beaten 4 lengths doesn’t look so bad, he was an effortless trial winner recently and must be hard to beat here. ERIDANI picked up where she left off prior to going for a short spell when finishing 2^nd at Hastings, she will get a trip that suits from her handy draw and after the 3KG claim she drops to a winnable weight, can go one better. BELLA PRONTO was well supported at her first NZ start and did not disappoint, overcoming difficulties in the running to get up right on the line, she can only improve from that effort, go again. WAY ABOVE, BOTHERED, and CEGHAR are all last start winners that should all work their way through the grades over Autumn/Winter, a win by any would not come as any surprise.

 

Race 3: Best bet JOY ANNA just found the heavy track too much to handle when 7^th last start in a tougher field, she was returning after a small let up and may have also needed the run, she can again lead form her good draw, she will take some catching around this track, go again. DAMA ZORRO built nicely to a tough last start win, she draws the ace which should enable her to get a softer trip here and that should make her hard to hold out, each way up in grade. ITS DESTINYS CHILD took a few runs to come to it this time in but has really hit her straps at her last 3 starts, she has worked her way through the grades winning her last couple, after the 2KG claim there is no reason she can’t win again, CHICANE has a great track record (4-2-1) which is important as Tauranga is a horses for courses circuit, she has been a little in or out this season but both her runs here have been very good, she also benefits from a 3KG claim, watch closely. For longer odds MEMORIES ONLY it would pay to overlook his Ellerslie run last start as he is not quite the same horse at Headquarters, his effort for 2^nd on this track is a much better guide to his chances in this, if he can repeat that effort when he sat outside the speed then he can definitely make his presence felt.

 

Race 4: Best bet . ESPRESSO MARTINI gained a deserved win at Listed level 3 starts back, she then contested Group 2 and Group 1 contests, though beaten she wasn’t disgraced, given a freshen up and back to a more suitable distance she looks to be one of the leading chances, especially from her handy draw. ROLL THE GOLD could be over the odds, he was unlucky at Trentham 2 starts back, then went to Wairoa but looked to be in need of the run, once again he didn’t get all favours during the running, he is due a change of luck and after the 3KG claim he gets his chance to turn it all around, each way. POKER FACE is making a fresh start, he is a past winner in this state before and is sure to be well forward, follow any positive market leads, look for him late.

 

Race 5: A R65 1400 metre contest starts the quaddie, best bet RAPOSA RAPIDA who is knocking on the door, he has progressively got better at each run this season, he just got pipped last start and is due a win, the 3KG claim is also a bonus, hard to beat. BRUEGEL nearly made a winning debut for her new trainers, he will be better for that run and he has a draw that suits, as a 5 win horse he does look well placed to break through,the blinkers being added could make all the difference, watch closely. WHITE SHIELD had 3 starts in December and hasn’t been seen publically since, outside of his Ellerslie run the other 2 have been good enough for him to be competitive in this, he is likely to push forward and could take some catching around this track, each way. IFFNDOUBT and LALA LAND both went improved runs for 4^th at their respective last starts, they are both capable of being thereabouts here, include in all multiples.

 

Race 6: Best bet HANGAR bounced back from his Group 1 initiation in the Telegraph to finish 3^rd next up at Otaki, the effort may have looked disappointing on paper but he did need the run, he should strip much fitter for this and after the 3KG claim he drops to only 51KGs, with that he has to be the hardest to beat. BACK IN A FLASH might be better on a wet track, she is returning here from a short let up and does drop in weight from her last start where she was a touch disappointing, her fresh up winning effort at Ellerslie on Boxing Day is a good form reference for this, weather watch then react accordingly. LE CASTILE last started against the top mares at Group 2 level where she finished 4^th, she won her 2 starts prior by either leading or sitting outside the pace, she is likely to adopt similar tactics here and should be hard to run down with only 54 KGs to carry. RONCHI is totally unreliable, but a repeat of his last start 2^nd when he had the blinkers added would be good enough for him to be a threat again, take your chances as he is probably worth the risk. DONNA ANNE BILLY can’t be totally discounted, from her good draw she should be able to settle close to the pace and her form around here is very good (7-2-2), likely to be at good odds again, include in all multiples.

 

Race 7: Best bet CALLIGRAPHY has been freshened since finishing 5^th against the top mares at Group 2 level, her form this season has been sound and back to her favourite track (5-2-1) she will be hard to hold out. KING’S CROSS jumped up out of the ground when flashing home for 2^nd at Ellerslie last start, he has been up for a while but is thriving on the racing schedule and hasn’t let the team down in any of his starts, after the 3KG claim he drops to a winnable weight with the extra 100 metres also being ideal, hard to beat. 

 

Race 8: Best bet SPEECHMAKER he has needed his recent racing and his last start effort though beaten did indicate his fitness is on the upward spiral, this field is devoid of form and he is likely to push forward which should keep him out of trouble early, expect a form reversal. JIMMY ROCKET if he was any other galloper he would probably go on top but it is Jimmy after all he is not known for trying the hardest, connections have opted for this easier assignment rather than the St. Leger at Trentham, he is best when saved up for the last run, hopefully for his many supporters he can find the winning post here, include in all multiples. DIAMONDSANDBUBBLES gained a well deserved maiden win 2 starts back, she then followed that with an unlucky 5^th in the higher grade last start, that form is good enough for her to be a big chance in this, she is ready for the step up in distance, watch closely. MISSTUMUT her form has improved since being tried over ground, she recorded an emphatic maiden win at her last start, winning by 6 lengths! She can continue to improve and looks hard to beat here. NARVICK was very unlucky 2 starts back, he then travelled to New Plymouth where nothing went right for him, he got trapped wide then went forward and was given no real chance of winning, he gets a superior draw here and his stable is in hot form, capable of turning his season right around in this, include in all multiples.

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