mardigras Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Thomass said: so like the rest of the World they decided to "leave" your ideas where they belong Trashed HK seem to align with my ideas. I guess they are struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 Oh of course their entire System is set up under your guidance Getting back to the topic which you've gone totally off AGAIN Your buddies at Betfear Blinkers: The addition of blinkers (first time or again) is marginally underestimated by the market, with those horses providing a slightly better than average return. However that only exists in a few key areas (see below) The more career starts a horse has had, the more of a betting advantage blinkers have provided. The biggest value exists in horses with 10 starts or more that have blinkers applied for the first time. The average advantage is negligible for horses with fewer starts. On average there is no betting advantage on horses with blinkers for the first time in sprint races. The advantage exists in races at 1350m or further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 (edited) More useless historical population based stats. You love them. Don't forget, only longer races where the horse starts with the letter D do they really come to the fore. Edited March 18, 2019 by mardigras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Thomass said: Oh of course their entire System is set up under your guidance Getting back to the topic which you've gone totally off AGAIN Your buddies at Betfear Blinkers: The addition of blinkers (first time or again) is marginally underestimated by the market, with those horses providing a slightly better than average return. However that only exists in a few key areas (see below) The more career starts a horse has had, the more of a betting advantage blinkers have provided. The biggest value exists in horses with 10 starts or more that have blinkers applied for the first time. The average advantage is negligible for horses with fewer starts. On average there is no betting advantage on horses with blinkers for the first time in sprint races. The advantage exists in races at 1350m or further. You've just quoted something thinking that it helps your argument. It actually blows it out of the water. They are talking AVERAGE population based statistics. There is no mention of standard deviation. So if there is an average of 10. What is the standard deviation? 2? If it is 2 then the horse could win at 8 starts or 12. The key is the relative price of an individual horse in the a specific field. Duh!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 (edited) But they're your heroes...you worship them Imagine if my 'niche' blinker strategy can analyse form by using basic shit like wide without cover...and unlucky...app allowances ..to arrive at a 'value' component rather than your idea of EVERY time a coconut.."within 2 L" mindless useless drivel such as that Edited March 18, 2019 by Thomass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 I don't worship them. I use betdaq as well. I'll use any betting site that allows bet placement via APIs that don't restrict my betting. Your strategy is if you like it and it has blinkers on, add 20%. You've told us. You've also told us that blinkers on is the secret to long term wealth at punting. You haven't told us how to use this magic piece of info. And each time you're asked, you only deliver after a horse has won. Why is that? I've tried to use it. I tried it on all runners, no good. I tried it on horses in form and that ran competitively last start, no good. I tried it on horses down in grade that ran competitively last start, no good. If I can't use it on horses that ran competitively last start (like within 2L of winning), describe for the readers when it can be used. It's so good apparently. Fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 What absolute absurdity you rant.. Only a tool head would say Blinkers are the secret to wealth... Please don't talk b/s... But you should contact your mates at Betfear if you disagree Blinkers are "underestimated by the market"... theyve done the 'stats' statsman... which don't telly with yours... go on put them straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thomass said: What absolute absurdity you rant.. Only a tool head would say Blinkers are the secret to wealth... Please don't talk b/s... But you should contact your mates at Betfear if you disagree Blinkers are "underestimated by the market"... theyve done the 'stats' statsman... which don't telly with yours... go on put them straight Show us the full stats and I'll happily show you the flaws in their analysis! I'd be weary of any betting agency giving me advice on what to back afterall they want me to lose! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Thomass said: But you should contact your mates at Betfear if you disagree Blinkers are "underestimated by the market"... theyve done the 'stats' statsman... which don't telly with yours... go on put them straight I'm pretty sure they tally with mine. That's why they decided to break them down into stupid subsets. Like suggesting blinkers have a price advantage on longer races but not on shorter races. That's hilarious. I have also worked out that the impact of blinkers on first time for horses starting with the letter M are seriously underestimated by the market. Fill your boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 I especially like backing horses with 10 starts over 1350m due to the price advantage blinkers on provides. And steer away from those 1349m races where blinkers are on the horse with 9 starts. They're losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Show us the full stats and I'll happily show you the flaws in their analysis! I'd be weary of any betting agency giving me advice on what to back afterall they want me to lose! Ffs...this is BETFEAR!! They don't give a flying fig if you wipe their back to your front... Its Punter agin Punter there...shit fights in the bare pit ..they just sit back smoking durries rolling in the %'s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Thomass said: Ffs...this is BETFEAR!! They don't give a flying fig if you wipe their back to your front... Its Punter agin Punter there...shit fights in the bare pit ..they just sit back smoking durries rolling in the %'s So you don't use Betfair's info to bet on other agencies? This Blinker thing has been done to death. I'd say by many many points that Mardigras is well in front of you in terms of credible analysis. So put up or shut up! Go head to head against Mardi and I'll provide the forum for you to do it. Let's see how good you really are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, mardigras said: I'm pretty sure they tally with mine. That's why they decided to break them down into stupid subsets. Like suggesting blinkers have a price advantage on longer races but not on shorter races. That's hilarious. I have also worked out that the impact of blinkers on first time for horses starting with the letter M are seriously underestimated by the market. Fill your boots. Yes but your Stats show REDZEL's best ever performance was without BLINKERS in a benchmark race... ...and he doesn't need BLINKERS It's simply remarkable a minute portion of the population still hang on your every word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thomass said: Yes but your Stats show REDZEL's best ever performance was without BLINKERS in a benchmark race... ...and he doesn't need BLINKERS It's simply remarkable a minute portion of the population still hang on your every word... Put up or shut up! Blinkers are irrelevant when assessing the performance of a horse in a specific race. With or without them Redzel couldn't beat a better horse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: So you don't use Betfair's info to bet on other agencies? This Blinker thing has been done to death. I'd say by many many points that Mardigras is well in front of you in terms of credible analysis. So put up or shut up! Go head to head against Mardi and I'll provide the forum for you to do it. Let's see how good you really are. I don't need to BETFEAR don't need to talk porkies either... Theyve produced raw data that Blinkers is UNDERESTIMATED by the market... What a larf though... If "credible analysis" says REDZEL doesn't need Blinkers...with what his trainer says... then leave me out of credible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Thomass said: I don't need to BETFEAR don't need to talk porkies either... Theyve produced raw data that Blinkers is UNDERESTIMATED by the market... What a larf though... If "credible analysis" says REDZEL doesn't need Blinkers...with what his trainer says... then leave me out of credible Put up or shut up. How do you quantify "underestimated"? Come on put your picks up against Mard's? I've you the opportunity if you are that good and more credible then show us. Stop spouting on about crap subjective whole population data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: Put up or shut up. How do you quantify "underestimated"? Come on put your picks up against Mard's? I've you the opportunity if you are that good and more credible then show us. Stop spouting on about crap subjective whole population data. You shuddaupa your face Email BETFEAR and ask them... ...but how does "a better than average return in comparison to others" resonate in the olde grey batter matta? I only need look in the wagering accounts to know the way moi uses this particular niche works 3 winners had BO first time at Trentham...Equinox, Volks Lightning and Sent Miss.. Remarkably for VL first on in her 34th start...wtf did they wait so long? Eliot " they settled her from her usual over racing"...not so common Latta " they enabled her to race handier..made a Huge difference"..very common Obviously not all have the same reaction Thats why in my specific 'Blinker nich'...where the sole determinant is the fact Blinkers are on... There has to be VALUE...and what's remarkable about the BETFEAR stats...is that EVERY horse with BO 1st time or again...is included...in the "better than average return" I simply don't invest on neddys who are out of form...but I do take into account wide without cover, unlucky et el in assessing past form...who wouldn't...apart from bazza and his mutt?? SM was snagged back from the widest 13 draw last start and never got into the action on the rails..so the previous start was the form line...beaten 1/2L by Imelda Mary..but beating the fav for the Oaks in QOD... With her good wet track stats I assessed value at 17's...got 23's Its that simple...pm me for any queries you may have for future BO wearers though Id be delighted to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Thomass said: There has to be VALUE...and what's remarkable about the BETFEAR stats...is that EVERY horse with BO 1st time or again...is included...in the "better than average return" Remarkable it may been. But what was written in your post didn't state that. And if that's what it does state, then it is guaranteed to be one of two things 1. A short period of time. Less than 10 years. Or 2. Not related to Australian racing Because otherwise its bollocks. Betfair or no Betfair. Put the original link up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 Ring them up...I haven't got time for your lack of comprehension... You wish you knew how to win in the Blinker niche.... ...but you haven't got the emotional horse intelligence to know when and how to apply it... ...Maybe ring Snowden up and get a horses perspective on how some react...he's a horseman...he'll help you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 This is hilarious. You're trying to validate your flawed ideas with historical population stats. And the stats don't even support it. What a loser. Let me know when Redzel gets blinkers on or on again, over 1350m+. He hasn't done that yet. Your own post has shafted your own theory. Brilliant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/gear-changes/ I rest my case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theshu Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Well he is like a dog chasing his own tail,has been going around in circles for the last 4 months.Pure idiot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 34 minutes ago, mardigras said: This is hilarious. You're trying to validate your flawed ideas with historical population stats. And the stats don't even support it. What a loser. Let me know when Redzel gets blinkers on or on again, over 1350m+. He hasn't done that yet. Your own post has shafted your own theory. Brilliant. It's not funny at all... Your main man..BETFEAR have given you the stats... But an atypical stat such as REDZEL's..according to BF...doesn't match wtf knew horses ain't robots and dance to the same f in dance every time?? f me.. So you think Big Red...with his shiney Red Blinkers...is a robot... ...and his trainer doesn't know wtf he's doing onya...dickhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 (edited) Have you tried the ones with names starting with the letter M. They're a goldmine. What a loser. I've also found first time blinker wearers do well on the 7th of February. Lock that in for the future. Edited March 20, 2019 by mardigras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 9 hours ago, Thomass said: You shuddaupa your face Email BETFEAR and ask them... ...but how does "a better than average return in comparison to others" resonate in the olde grey batter matta? I only need look in the wagering accounts to know the way moi uses this particular niche works 3 winners had BO first time at Trentham...Equinox, Volks Lightning and Sent Miss.. Remarkably for VL first on in her 34th start...wtf did they wait so long? Eliot " they settled her from her usual over racing"...not so common Latta " they enabled her to race handier..made a Huge difference"..very common Obviously not all have the same reaction Thats why in my specific 'Blinker nich'...where the sole determinant is the fact Blinkers are on... There has to be VALUE...and what's remarkable about the BETFEAR stats...is that EVERY horse with BO 1st time or again...is included...in the "better than average return" I simply don't invest on neddys who are out of form...but I do take into account wide without cover, unlucky et el in assessing past form...who wouldn't...apart from bazza and his mutt?? SM was snagged back from the widest 13 draw last start and never got into the action on the rails..so the previous start was the form line...beaten 1/2L by Imelda Mary..but beating the fav for the Oaks in QOD... With her good wet track stats I assessed value at 17's...got 23's Its that simple...pm me for any queries you may have for future BO wearers though Id be delighted to help So put up and go head to head with Mardi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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