The Jewels: The Stats!

[Basil]

In another thread, I see that Brodie has been making the argument that the connections of SI horses that have little chance of running in the money are likely to think twice about traipsing all the way to Cambridge for this year's Jewels. Although not directly related to the point he was making, this got me wondering about the historical distribution of starters, winners, draws etc, across the two islands and the two courses.

 So, having had a spare couple of hours to kill, I've engaged in a bit of trainspotting...

TOTAL (ASHBURTON AND CAMBRIDGE COMBINED, 2007-2017)

SI stables have comprised 65.6% of the starters, 68.7% of the winners, and 69.7% of the placegetters (2nd and 3rd)

NI stables have comprised 33.8% of the starters, 31.3% of the winners, and 28.3% of the placegetters (where SI+NI doesn't add up to 100%, it's because of the presence of Oz horses)

The average winning barrier draw is 6.

ASHBURTON

SI stables have comprised 72.0% of the starters, 68.5% of the winners, and 71.3% of the placegetters (2nd and 3rd)

NI stables have comprised 27.6% of the starters, 31.5% of the winners, and 25.0% of the placegetters

The average winning barrier draw is 6.

CAMBRIDGE

SI stables have comprised 57.7% of the starters, 68.9% of the winners, and 67.8% of the placegetters (2nd and 3rd)

NI stables have comprised 41.4% of the starters, 31.1% of the winners, and 32.2% of the placegetters

The average winning barrier draw is 6.

 

What can be inferred from all this?

• Unsurprisingly, SI representation is higher when the Jewels are held in Ashburton than in Cambridge, with the reverse being true for NI stables.

• Despite this, the SI winning and placing %ages are basically the same at both courses, suggesting that marginal SI horses don't travel to Cambridge and are replaced by marginal NI horses (i.e., there is a 'Brodie Effect'!)

• Given the disparity between NI and SI representation, overall industry travel costs could be reduced (by, very roughly, 10%) if the Jewels were held in the NI every 3rd year rather than every 2nd year.

• Despite impressions to the contrary, inside barrier draws have been no more important (at least for winning) at Cambridge than at Ashburton.

 

Discuss.?

[Happy Sunrise]

Nice work, basil.

Very interesting.

[Newmarket]

Good stuff Basil , that surprises me comparing barrier draw stats.