Chief Stipe Posted August 7, 2019 Author Share Posted August 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Thomass said: Did you take into account the fact our blue blood boys get shipped...and smart operators like Davo realised this... Just as any well bred filly or mare who struggles with injury or form is retired to stud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 22 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: "Pure" World Handicapping isn't as "pure" as you suggest. That aside a handicapping system is supposed to equalise every horse's chances in a particular race by using weight. Given that every jurisdiction is different in terms of horse composition and racing environment one size cannot fit all. And that's what we did...we recognised all our competitors had RBH...perfect for our diminishing population...and able to mix racing between sexs far easier...while retaining a pure WFA system... It'd be simply ridiculous to change every so often if there's an increase/decrease in the balance of sexes Curious has provided some analysis that show females are at an advantage over males with the 2kg allowance. Before it was increased he shows that there was little significant difference. When the 2kg allowance was first mooted the objective was to increase "fillies and mares participation" as well as the other non handicapping objectives stated earlier in this post. Curio provided a couple years b/s stats that bore no resemblance to reality...I have 6 months of stats stating 16,000 starts...he had sfa starts over 2 years... The 'real' stats showed the Mares weren't getting through the old Class system...now they are thanks to TRANSPARENT RATINGS...with the added sex allowance There was also discussion around that fact that females have less average starts than males. In my opinon having looked at the analysis increasing the allowance would NOT achieve the objectives but would distort the handicap to the detriment of fair and equal racing. Yea, your OPINION v a REALALE Handicapper...Layman v Gravitas...next Not surprising the average start per female has not increased. I also doubt that female participation has increased. Although Mr Saundry has stopped providing us with regular data as Mr Purcell did. You doubt?? Yea na Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 22 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Just as any well bred filly or mare who struggles with injury or form is retired to stud. This bares no comparison to the statement that our best Colts are exported...with the odd Filly.... All sexes get injured....who knew? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, Thomass said: This bares no comparison to the statement that our best Colts are exported...with the odd Filly.... All sexes get injured....who knew? FFS before you start arguing for the sake of arguing can you stop, count to 10 (that's the digits on each hand minus two of your four thumbs) and attempt to comprehend what other folk write. The point being that owners and trainers are more likely to perservere with a gelding and take the risks of further injury than they are with a well bred filly. That's one of the reasons why females have a lower average of starts than geldings. The latter were the bread and butter of the New Zealand racing industry and provided lots of punting revenue. Now that the handicapping system and other incentives are against them we see a decline in the quality of our punting fields. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 36 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: FFS before you start arguing for the sake of arguing can you stop, count to 10 (that's the digits on each hand minus two of your four thumbs) and attempt to comprehend what other folk write. The point being that owners and trainers are more likely to perservere with a gelding and take the risks of further injury than they are with a well bred filly. That's one of the reasons why females have a lower average of starts than geldings. The latter were the bread and butter of the New Zealand racing industry and provided lots of punting revenue. Now that the handicapping system and other incentives are against them we see a decline in the quality of our punting fields. So where have the Geldings gone if they're SO uncompetitive now then? Australia...where they have exactly the same RBH system? The problem stakeholders fail to grasp is that if 'Geldings' as a group are so badly off, they'll then drop in ratings when racing against a Mare so 'dramatically' better off...as they progress through each Band...if indeed that's a 'thing' ..each performance is assessed on an ALL IN Male basis...at face value Try reading this again,.. "An interesting fact contained within the statistics is the anomaly in the ratio between the male and female sexes as the quality of races increase. If there are a significant number of colts being sold on and thus reducing the overall pool of that sex, then why are the females not dominating the horse pool number wise at all levels of competition? This can only suggest that the fillies and mares are not competitive under the current structure or there are lack of programming options that ensure connections can see reason for keeping there fillies and mares in training." Again if you want to go back to your 'Pure Handicapping'... ...a 'Phar Lap' type performance from a maiden Gelding will see that horse go straight to Open Class....and I suggest straight overseas without racing here again Is that what you want? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 Of course there are other factors such as declining stakes. However if what you have copied (again no original thought from you) is correct and the changes have worked then why hasn't the average number of starts by females increased cf with males? Doesn't that suggest that there are other factors in play? If you accept that fact then someone with your self proclaimed experience may well enlighten us all on what those factors are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Thomass said: ...a 'Phar Lap' type performance from a maiden Gelding will see that horse go straight to Open Class....and I suggest straight overseas without racing here again Is that what you want? Yep, because that will leave the other 13 runners continuing to run on a competitive basis and thus generating punter interest, turnover and revenue. None of which we have with the current system. Hence declining stakes, foal crops and ownership interest. You surely don't think a Phar Lap type maiden winner should then be competing at the next level with your average type maiden winner at level weights? It's insane to operate a handicapping system like that. Edited August 9, 2019 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muzenza365 Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 Agree, so why did Patrick Erin go to Waller and won 3x stakes he had won in NZ within 4 starts ???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 1 hour ago, muzenza365 said: Agree, so why did Patrick Erin go to Waller and won 3x stakes he had won in NZ within 4 starts ??? Not sure I understand the point in your question? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 13 hours ago, Thomass said: The problem stakeholders fail to grasp is that if 'Geldings' as a group are so badly off, they'll then drop in ratings when racing against a Mare so 'dramatically' better off "Under the Rating System all horses are rated as mature age males, with sex and age allowances deducted (where applicable) once the field for a race is determined." Your gelding is not going to catch up with the F&M allowance just by dropping 4 ratings points. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 Not sure what you mean "catch up to the mare allowance" So considering 4 points = 2 kgs..of course it does.... But get this... ...a Mare going through the Bands is at even more of a disadvantage because she can't claim her rightful sex allowance below the bottom Handicapped weight..if that's where she lands in an Open race when coming through the Grades So a supposedly uncompetitive out of form Gelding will lose around 2 points..and a Mare finishing in the money will move up 2 points closer to the Gelding... 4 points swing = 2 kgs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 9, 2019 Author Share Posted August 9, 2019 27 minutes ago, Thomass said: So considering 4 points = 2 kgs..of course it does.... It doesn't - as the handicapping guide says "1 point may not equal 0.5kg." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 (edited) 53 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: It doesn't - as the handicapping guide says "1 point may not equal 0.5kg." At the bottom of the handicap it equals a big fat ZERO. So if you are doing any real analysis of the effect of the allowance you need to leave out those horses not carrying their rated weight. Edited August 9, 2019 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted August 10, 2019 Share Posted August 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Not sure what you mean "catch up to the mare allowance" So considering 4 points = 2 kgs..of course it does... No. Only after the performances have been assessed and weights for a race set is the allowance taken. No matter how poorly your gelding performs against the female, when they line again up she gets 2kg. Obvious exceptions notwithstanding. We all know races have minimum weights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 10, 2019 Share Posted August 10, 2019 I'm sorry but that's just plain wrong! Curio, come in here spinner...Ive tried explaining Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 10, 2019 Share Posted August 10, 2019 What's plain wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 (edited) Stupid moi..thinking you'd understand the question...you couldn't even work out what "retrospective to R 3" meant Ok Sandpiper... an Older Gelding has reached his limit of 60kgs...cf the Mare coming through the Grades at 56kgs.... Assessed by the Handicapper in this race as 4 points inferior..or 2 kgs The Gelding performs badly...while the Mare finishes 2nd... After this race the Male loses 2 points and the Mare gains 2 for her performance... Alors...meeting again next week there'll be a 2 kg turnaround... i.e. The Gelding will have 59kgs and the Female 57kgs...pretty obvious I would have thought Edited August 11, 2019 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Stupid moi..thinking you'd understand the question...you couldn't even work out what "retrospective to R 3" meant Ok Sandpiper... an Older Gelding has reached his limit of 60kgs...cf the Mare coming through the Grades at 56kgs.... Assessed by the Handicapper in this race as 4 points inferior..or 2 kgs The Gelding performs badly...while the Mare finishes 2nd... After this race the Male loses 2 points and the Mare gains 2 for her performance... Alors...meeting again next week there'll be a 2 kg turnaround... i.e. The Gelding will have 59kgs and the Female 57kgs...pretty obvious I would have thought So you are saying that Race 1. There is a 4 point ratings difference and the mare receives 2kg for the ratings and 2kg for the allowance. Race 2. There is a 0 point ratings difference and the mare receives 0kg for the ratings and 2kg for the allowance. Yes I agree. Your male can keep losing as much as he likes. He will continue to have to give away the 2kg allowance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Because he's physiologically bigger... on average Look at It from a first start perspective... We all agree a Mare should get an allowance in a maiden Set Weight race due to that average physical difference... The Brits will incorporate the sex allowance into a maiden Handicap.... So if on face value a Filly/Colt produces a winning performance...same time, impressive etc. That filly will still retain the lesser weight for the next Handicap were they to meet...due to her carrying the lighter Fillies weight when winning... Into the next grade...and a physically bigger than average Mare will soon start matching or beating the colts...where her 2kg physiology allowance...will dissipate And of course a Mare, just slipping into a new Band...won't be able to claim her Mares allowance below the Minimum Weight... Very unfair...if an apprentice can claim below the minimum...surely a Mare should claim her allowance below the Min. as well? So Handicapping all sexes on a 4yo Male basis..as we do now....enables a Mare to ease more readily into the proceeding Bands...on a transparent basis... ..which wasn't the case previously... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 And of course a Mare picks up the advantage again..coming back the other way E.g. A Mare and Colt on the bottom of a rating band then dropping back...the Mare picks up the 2 kg advantage even after a similar rating performance... ...Ask Pitty...he loves having a Mare dropping back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 11/08/2019 at 2:54 PM, Sandpiper said: So you are saying that Race 1. There is a 4 point ratings difference and the mare receives 2kg for the ratings and 2kg for the allowance. Race 2. There is a 0 point ratings difference and the mare receives 0kg for the ratings and 2kg for the allowance. Yes I agree. Your male can keep losing as much as he likes. He will continue to have to give away the 2kg allowance. Your turn Sandpiper...or Freda.. Do you agree or accept the above? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted August 15, 2019 Share Posted August 15, 2019 Yes I agree with that quote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted August 15, 2019 Share Posted August 15, 2019 I think you are too hung up about rating bands. Horses that are placed out of the handicap (including for the sake of the discussion the 2kg allowance) are done so knowingly by connections. If connections feel hard done due to lack of racing options by that is an issue for race programming nothing to do with any allowance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 I'm not sure what you mean by that. Thats the system were in. Theres very good stats that prove Racing 'out of the handicap' horses then continue to race well in the higher grade. And of course the beauty of treating all horses as 4yo Colts. Mares get to progress through to the next grade more easily and transparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Its quite simple. If you run a female out of the handicap you forego the 2kg allowance. Thats the system we are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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