Belmont Stakes

[Chief Stipe]

Belmont Stakes: If Justify can set leisurely pace, he’ll cruise to victory and win Triple Crown

• By Ed McNamara Newsday (TNS)
•  
  • 9 hrs ago
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Assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes holds Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby winner Justify as a crowd welcomes the horse back to Barn 33 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., Sunday, May 20, 2018. Justify will attempt to become the winner of horse racing's Triple Crown in June in New York at The Belmont Stakes. (AP Photo/Garry Jones)

Garry Jones

They blast out of the gates, hitting full speed in a couple of strides, and after a quarter-mile in 22 seconds or so, it’s over. Sneeze, blink and you miss it. Quarter horse racing is all about breaking well and establishing position immediately. Oddly, that’s also usually the winning formula for the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes, even though it’s 1 1/4 miles farther and takes 2 1/2 minutes.

Newbie handicappers tend to assume that the longer the race, the more likely that the pacesetters will fade. Not so, even though it’s counter intuitive to think early acceleration can be the ultimate weapon in a marathon.

From 1982-86, Woody Stephens trained five consecutive Belmont winners, a record as unbreakable as Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak. Stephens always said, “The Belmont is a speed horse’s race.” Not many closers have enough juice to make up a lot of ground at a distance they weren’t bred to handle.

 

If the pace is moderate or slow, the leader can relax and keep going. That’s how American Pharoah nailed down the 2015 Triple Crown for trainer Bob Baffert, ending a 36-year drought. After Pharoah coasted alone through a half-mile in a leisurely 48 4/5 seconds and a mile in a no-sweat 1:37 4/5, the stretch run became a deafening coronation. With no pressure, “The Test of the Champion” was no test at all.

If the undefeated Justify can work out that kind of trip June 9 at Belmont Park, he’ll probably become the 13th to sweep the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont.

D. Wayne Lukas, trainer of four Belmont champions, will saddle Preakness runner-up Bravazo, whose strong late move was aided by a speed duel with Good Magic that took something out of Justify. If the heavy favorite gets clear by himself this time, good luck catching him.

“Justify is the best horse,” Lukas said. “He’s got what it takes. I like his physique. He’s a big, strong horse who gets over the ground well. He makes his own trip and determines where he wants to be. He makes his own luck, and he’ll probably do that in the Belmont.”

Every so often, the Belmont winner comes from far back — Creator (2016), Jazil (2006) — and in the 21st century, only American Pharoah and Da’ Tara (2008) led throughout. But there’s no greater attribute than controlled speed, and no 3-year-old has more of it than Justify does.

Like Lukas, Baffert made his mark with quarter horses in the Southwest and Southern California. Both switched to thoroughbreds after training multiple champions on the short tracks. Each had to “retrain his mind,” as Baffert said, to adapt, but the essential didn’t change.

“Bob and I have a similar mindset,” Lukas said. “We both like horses with tactical speed. You very seldom see a Baffert horse or a Lukas horse drop way out of it. They’ll get into the race. They may not be 1-2, but they’ll be up close.”

Justify’s jockey, Mike Smith, also got started with quarter horses. At 14, he was already making $200 a week riding the dusty bush tracks of his native New Mexico. Thirty-eight years later, “Big Money Mike” is the sport’s top big-race rider, and he never forgot his first lesson.

“Going into the Derby, my main concern really was just getting him out of the gate,” Smith said. “I knew if I could get him out of there and get him into a big rhythm, he could go fast.

It’s Baffert’s record fifth attempt at the Triple Crown, and a bad start led to his only noncompetitive bid in the finale. In 2002, War Emblem, a need-the-lead type, stumbled badly at the break and was bumped. After being rushed toward the front, he tired and faded to eighth.

Baffert admits he’s always on “pins and needles” before a major stakes, with his paramount concern the start. In Justify’s five races, that’s never been a problem. The big chestnut colt trained so well this past week at Churchill Downs that Baffert is expressing confidence, not fretting over “what ifs.” Justify effortlessly breezed a quick half-mile in 46.80 seconds Tuesday, making Baffert wish he didn’t have to wait another week to run him.

“I was surprised by the time and how easy he was doing it,” he said.

Justify will have another timed workout, probably Monday, before flying Wednesday from Louisville to New York. He’ll be stabled at the Belmont barn of Syosset native and resident John Terranova, who with his wife, Tonja, also hosted American Pharoah.

 

“Justify is so beautiful. He looks like a giant quarter horse,” Baffert said. “He’s got muscle on muscle and he has a presence about him. He’s a big, quick son of a gun, and light on his feet. I think to win the Triple Crown, you have to be a big, strong horse and be able to handle a lot of situations. This horse is just that.”

 

[curious]

7 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

 He looks like a giant quarter horse,” Baffert said. “He’s got muscle on muscle and he has a presence about him. He’s a big, quick son of a gun, and light on his feet.”

 

Why would you run a quarter horse in a 1 1//2 mile race I wonder?

[Chief Stipe]

Belmont Stakes 2018 odds, post draw: Justify draws Post 1, lineup, horses, contenders, best positions

After landing Post 7 for both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, Justify will run from the inside

• 

• by Cody Benjamin
• 3h ago • 3 min read
•  

So what are Jody Demling's 2018 Belmont picks? Where does Justify finish? And what long shot do you need to jump on? Visit SportsLine now to get Jody Demling's Belmont Stakes picks and predictions for every single horse, all from the horse racing guru who nailed the 1-2 finish and superfecta last year.

The third leg of the American Triple Crown is just days away, and now all 10 horses set to face off in New York on Saturday at the Belmont Stakes have their post positions. Justify, the only competitor with a chance at capturing the Triple Crown, seemed to make out well after two straight races out of Post 7, landing the inside track for Belmont.

Here's a complete rundown of the 2018 Belmont Stakes post positions and odds:

POST	HORSE	ODDS
1	Justify	4-5
2	Free Drop Billy	30-1
3	Bravazo	8-1
4	Hofburg	9-2
5	Restoring Hope	30-1
6	Gronkowski	12-1
7	Tenfold	12-1
8	Vino Rosso	8-1
9	Noble Indy	30-1
10	Blended Citizen	15-1

Best and worst post positions

Justify's Post 1 draw should have trainer Bob Baffert pretty excited. After running from Post 7 for both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, this weekend's favorite will look to become the first Triple Crown winner since 2015, and he'll be in the best track for Belmont races. The first post has produced more champions (23) than any other lane at Belmont Park. Fifteen different winners, meanwhile, have started from either Post 3 or Post 5, where Bravazo and long shot Restoring Hope will begin. Bravazo figures to benefit from that since he's long been considered Justify's chief competition.

It should be noted, though, that Belmont Stakes usually feature smaller fields, so the history of certain posts faring better might be a little less indicative of a horse's chances to win than in, say, Louisville.

Horses, jockeys and trainers

Justify 

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith

The big kahuna. After winning the Kentucky Derby by 2.5 lengths, Justify stayed undefeated with a dominant Preakness Stakes victory and now, with the Apollo Curse well behind him, looks to become the first American Triple Crown winner since 2015's American Pharaoh, another Baffert specimen.

Vino Rosso

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez

Pletcher's Always Dreaming captured headlines for his 2017 Kentucky Derby win, but Vino Rosso barely cracked the top 10 in Louisville. Still, he makes for a potential upset pick since he's rested up and looked fly at the Wood Memorial.

Bravazo

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Luis Saez 

He finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby as one of that 20-horse field's biggest long shots, then skyrocketed to a second-place finish in Baltimore for the Preakness. He might represent Justify's biggest challenge under the guidance of Lukas.

Noble Indy

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano

The second of Pletcher's horses in the Belmont Stakes, he underwhelmed at the Kentucky Derby with a 17th-place finish but has three first-place runs in his last five races -- the most recent being the Louisiana Derby on March 24.

Hofburg

Trainer: William I. Mott
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

He's a spoiler candidate with decent odds entering the race after a seventh-place showing at the Kentucky Derby. From purely a physical standpoint, he figures to give Justify a run for his money down the stretch.

Tenfold

Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Tenfold did not race as a 2-year-old and missed this year's Kentucky Derby after a fifth-place run in the Arkansas Derby, but with Espinoza -- a three-time Preakness winner -- riding him, he captured a third-place finish in Baltimore.

Gronkowski

Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Most known for being named after New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, he missed out on the Kentucky Derby because of an infection but is ready for his debut after a dominant run in Europe's Burradon Stakes.

Free Drop Billy

Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado

He hasn't had a first-place finish since October 2017 and is probably the biggest long shot of the bunch. Still, he got himself warmed up with a 16th-place spot in the Kentucky Derby.

Blended Citizen

Trainer: Doug F. O'Neill
Jockey: Kyle Frey

His first-place mark at the 2018 Peter Pan have some hopeful for his showing at Belmont, where he won in May. He has just one other first-place finish in his previous nine races, however.

Restoring Hope

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Florent Geroux

An anticipated addition to the Belmont lineup, he's another Baffert horse, which obviously spawns some questions about what kind of competition Justify will get from him. He finished 12th in the May 5 Pat Day Mile.

 

 

 

 

 

[curious]

Hmmm....Gronkowski into 12's ....

 

 

[Chief Stipe]

Only been with his "new" trainer for two weeks and has had an interrupted preparation.  Who is going to take on Jusifty?  They can't let him dictate the pace as his "quarter horse" speed off a slow mile would be too much for any swoopers.

[curious]

Doubt Justify will lead. Restoring Hope will be the rabbit won't he? Think they'll want the pace on and give him something to run at.

[Chief Stipe]

54 minutes ago, curious said:

Doubt Justify will lead. Restoring Hope will be the rabbit won't he? Think they'll want the pace on and give him something to run at.

Probably.  What's the weather forecast?

[curious]

Will the 3rd leg of 2018 Triple Crown be run in the mud at Belmont?

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

June 06, 2018, 1:37:14 AM EDT

This year's Belmont Stakes and 13th quest for horse racing's Triple Crown may be a close call between rain and sunshine.

Saturday will mark the 150th running of the Belmont States at Belmont Park, Elmont, Long Island, New York.

Following the storm that brought downpours to end the first weekend of June in the New York City area and Belmont Park, the next chance of drenching rain will occur this weekend.

Whether or not it pours around race time at 6:37 p.m. EDT, Saturday, June 9, as Justify seeks to become the 13th Triple Crown winner will depend on the speed of the next storm.

At this time it appears that heavy, steady rain will hold off until Saturday night or Sunday on Long Island. However, any increase in forward speed of that storm may mean a wet outcome for the race.

"There is the chance of a shower popping up ahead of the main storm this coming weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

A boundary between cool air over New England and warm, humid air over the central Appalachians could unleash spotty showers ahead of the main storm along the upper mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday afternoon and evening.

"Belmont has a sandy consistency to the track and drains very well," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brian Thompson.

"In order for sloppy conditions to occur for the 2018 Belmont Stakes, it would have to pour right before or during the race," Thompson said.

If it manages to pour early Saturday evening, it will end up being soggy for all three legs of the triple crown.

Training and running horses in prolonged wet weather can raise the risk of a hoof injury, according to the Horse.com.

Jockey Martin Garcia works Triple Crown hopeful Justify at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky., Tuesday, May 29, 2018. (AP Photo/Garry Jones)

While some horses, such as Justify, seem to handle the wet weather, other horses may not run as well with mud being splattered in their face. Mud may also increase the risk of a horse slipping. Mud may even out some of the competition but cause other horses to fall well off the pace.

Both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness were run in the mud in 2018. The 2018 Kentucky Derby was the wettest on record with more than 3 inches of rain. Rain fell every day for a weak leading up to and including the Preakness at Pimlico in Baltimore.

The last horse to win the Triple Crown was American Pharoah in 2015. Prior to 2015, there were no Triple Crown winners since the 1970s, when Affirmed (1978), Seattle Slew (1977) and Secretariat (1973) won. Secretariat holds the speed record for all of the three Triple Crown races, including the world record on dirt for 1.5 miles set at Belmont.

In lieu of any rain on Saturday evening, there should be enough space between rain events to allow the track to drain off on/by Saturday in what should be an exciting race. A repeat of the week-long downpours experienced at Baltimore leading up to the Preakness is not anticipated.

High temperatures most days this week will be in the 70s F at Belmont. The warmest day is likely to be on Friday, when temperatures may top 80.

[Chief Stipe]

Justify arrives at the track.  Geez Curious do you look as cut as that?

[curious]

Gone a bit dull in the coat eh?

[curious]

34 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Justify arrives at the track.  Geez Curious do you look as cut as that?

 

No, but someone told me I was half cut last night.

[Chief Stipe]

11 minutes ago, curious said:

Gone a bit dull in the coat eh?

Your eyes are bloodshot.

[curious]

 

[Dark Beau]

12 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Justify arrives at the track.  Geez Curious do you look as cut as that?

Has Secretariat returned? 

[Chief Stipe]

Justify Pleases Baffert in First Trip Over Belmont Oval

Dual classic winner 'floated' over surface in first morning training in New York.

• By Alicia Wincze Hughes 
•  
• Today, 12:21 PM

Sponsored By 

One of the many things that has become evident in the last handful of weeks of Justify's career is that he doesn't need to take his racetrack with him.

He has won on fast and muddy surfaces at Santa Anita Park. He handled the rain-drenched Churchill Downs oval with no issue during his victory in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) and was equally unbothered by the wet going at Pimlico Race Course during his half-length victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1).

In his first venture onto the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Parktrack where he will attempt to become the 13th horse to capture the Triple Crown in the June 9 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1), the son of Scat Daddy looked every bit at home as elsewhere. The unbeaten dual classic winner put in a gallop that could have doubled for a two-minute lick June 7, going straight off under exercise rider Humberto Gomez to about 1 3/8th miles to the satisfaction of his Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert.

"It looked like he really took to the track well," Baffert said of Justify's first morning of training at Belmont after arriving in New York the afternoon of June 6. "All my horses I brought up here floated over the track, and he just looked like he was just getting over it really well. He was a little aggressive, a little fresh today, but he couldn't have looked any better today coming around there. I was very happy that he looks like a horse who is flourishing and doing very well. It was nothing for him."

Though Belmont Park is nicknamed "Big Sandy," Baffert said the surface his horses are used to training over at Santa Anita Park is a deep one in its own right. The level of fitness they gain at their base is one the Hall of Fame conditioner says pays dividends when they come to a track like Belmont, which is known to throw some contenders off.

"We've been training over a really deep, tiring track in California, and for some reason my horses come here and they just float over it," Baffert said. "It was really nice."

Baffert said Justify usually has earplugs, but the trainer didn't put the noise mufflers in Thursday, thinking the setting would be more quiet than it was after the renovation break.

"A horse came up to him, and we usually have (his) earplugs in, but … we'll put them back in tomorrow," said Baffert, adding that Justify does not race with earplugs.

Baffert said Justify will go through the same routine June 8 and will not school in the paddock or the gate before the race.

VIDEO

[Chief Stipe]

Expert comment from Maggie and Gabby!

 

[Chief Stipe]

I'm a bit worried now Curious he looks a bit fresh and seems to have bulked up even more.

[Chief Stipe]

11 hours ago, Dark Beau said:

Has Secretariat returned? 

No but Justify does have Secretariat in his blood line - maybe he acquired that big heart gene!  He has Secretariat on both sides of his pedigree.

Justify actually races heavier than Secretariat by about 20 to 30 kg's.  For a big horse what I like is his action is so smooth.  Interestingly by a sire who was a sprinter but heaps of  Belmont Stakes winners blood in his pedigree.  AP Indy being a noted influence in many of the horses that have won at least two legs of the Triple Crown.

[Chief Stipe]

This week’s TDN GI Belmont S. Preview ranks the entrants in order of estimated win probability:

1) JUSTIFY (c, Scat Daddy—Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
‘TDN Rising Star‘ O-China Horse Club, Head of Plains PartnersLLC, Starlight Racing & WinStar Farm. B- John D. Gunther (Ky).
T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $500,000 yrl ’16 KEESEP. Lifetime
Record: MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $2,998,000.

Justify is the likeliest winner of the Belmont S., but that’s not the same as saying he’s a smart bet at or below his 4-5 morning line ranking. This undefeated $500,000 KEESEP Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) colt is going to have to defend multiple attacks over an unproven distance after an intense, five-week Classics campaign that is in itself part of a super-brief, pressure-packed career arc spanning only 156 days.

Jockey Mike Smith might as well be chasing history with a bullseye on his back considering how rival riders will be targeting his ‘TDN Rising Star’ on Saturday, and in particular, the second and third choices in the Belmont betting both loom as credible threats because they hail from A-list stables after having been freshened since exiting the GI Kentucky Derby with legit excuses.

But still, having laid out those potential stumbling blocks, the fact remains that Justify simply delivers what is expected of him–and often exceeds those expectations–every time he’s presented with a new challenge.

In the Derby, this long-striding colt was still hand-ridden through the far turn while repulsing a two-pronged attack from a pair of relentless rivals, and when set down straightening for home the brawny chestnut’s response was fluid and not at all nearing the limitations of his stamina depth. Justify’s Preakness win was a bit more of a scrappy showdown than expected, but he only lost style points and not the race, and he’s since had three weeks of rest followed by reportedly thriving in training.

The been-there-done-that aura of confidence that resonates around conditioner Bob Baffert and his 2015 Triple Crown-winning team no doubt only helps Justify’s chances, because his handlers are keenly aware of what to expect in terms of pressure and nerves when race day arrives.

2) VINO ROSSO (c, Curlin—Mythical Bride, by Street Cry {Ire})
O-Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable. B-John D. Gunther (Ky). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $410,000 yrl ’16 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-0-1, $620,500.

Sure, plenty of horses couldn’t handle the slop in this year’s Derby. But Vino Rosso appeared more out of his comfort zone than most of the also-rans, and trainer Todd Pletcher said after this $410,000 KEESEP Curlin colt’s ninth-place try that “I don’t ever remember flushing more mud out of a horse’s eyes than we did with him.”

Now, with the benefit of five weeks to recuperate and a return to training that included a recent bullet breeze, Vino Rosso is percolating as very live upsetter based on a similar skip-the-Preakness strategy that Pletcher utilized last year when he captured the Belmont S. with Tapwrit (Tapit).

If you are willing to completely toss out Vino Rosso’s Derby and focus on his aggressively won GII Wood Memorial S. as an example of a stepping-stone race that could get him a Classic, this distance-pedigreed closer could have the Belmont unfold in a fashion that suits him best (i.e., tag-team pace pressure on Justify early before Vino Rosso winds up for a prolonged stretch kick). Earlier in the spring, when jockey John Velazquez presumably had the option to choose among several of Pletcher’s Derby-bound horses, Vino Rosso became his hand-picked horse despite several uninspiring tries at Tampa Bay Downs. After a nice fighting-spirit win in the Wood, the colt’s development arc stalled in the Derby. But Vino Rosso now appears poised to pounce as the main danger in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

3) HOFBURG (c, Tapit—Soothing Touch, by Touch Gold) O/B-Juddmonte Farms, Inc. (Ky). T-William I. Mott. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-1-0, $227,950.

Hofburg has been a “wise guy” pick to win the Belmont ever since he galloped out past everybody else after the finish of the Kentucky Derby and trainer Bill Mott declared that this Tapit (Pulpit) homebred would bypass the Preakness to lie in wait for the third jewel of the Triple Crown. In the five weeks since, the Hofburg bandwagon has become crowded with supporters, and while he makes sense as a realistic win threat considering his stamina-centric bloodlines, it might be a bit of a reach to back Hofburg as a 9-2 second choice in a Classic race considering he’s never won beyond the maiden ranks.

Yet since his initial score back on Mar. 3 at Gulfstream, Hofburg has posted back-to-back “much better than they look on paper” efforts: First when closing determinedly to grab second in the GI Florida Derby, and again in Louisville on the first Saturday in May when he was committed to an inside bid but got shuffled back in traffic before tipping widest for the stretch run and steaming home with admirable late-race momentum. Upsetting Tripe Crown bids by Bob Baffert trainees just might run in Hofburg’s family, as damsire Touch Gold denied Silver Charm the 1997 Belmont S. by three-quarters of a length.

4) TENFOLD (c, Curlin—Temptress, by Tapit)
O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC. T-Steven M. Asmussen.
Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-2-0-1, $289,200.

Your opinion of Tenfold probably hinges on whether or not you think his third-place, three-quarter length finish behind Justify in the Preakness is the real deal or not. I think that’s the wrong measuring stick. Instead, focus on this colt’s entire four-race body of work, which although brief, gives a better illustration that this homebred is headed in the right direction.

Tenfold’s Beyer Speed Figures have gone up in every start even though he’s taken on tougher competition and increased distances at every step. He’s overcome adversity (bumped and wide in the Preakness), and this colt’s pace-pressing running style means he’s unlikely to be slugging it out on the lead, yet should still be able to snag a contending stalking spot not too far off the early action. If Tenfold is able to remain in the hunt to the top of the stretch, the bet will essentially be whether his distance-oriented pedigree (by Curlin out of a Tapit mare) is enough to put him over the top at 12 furlongs.

5) RESTORING HOPE (c, Giant’s Causeway—Symbol of Freedom, by Tapit) O-Gary & Mary West. B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: GSP, 5-1-1-2, $149,880.

Trainer Bob Baffert’s “other” horse in the Belmont S. is not as far-fetched a proposition as he might seem. In fact, if you go back in time prior to Justify’s February debut, Restoring Hope was getting his own share of ink in many pre-Derby prognostications before this Giant’s Causeway homebred missed the GII San Felipe with minor foot issue, then failed to make the earnings cut to enter GIII Sunland Derby.

Subsequent shuffling among Baffert’s Derby hopefuls in early April caused Restoring Hope to get re-routed to New York for the Wood Memorial, where he was a one-paced third, yet only 5 1/4 lengths behind the well-regarded Vino Rosso. He next showed up in the undercard GIII Pat Day Mile on Derby Day at Churchill, which was run in a relentless, pelting rain that was worse than the abysmally muddy conditions of the Derby itself two hours later. Because of the adverse weather, I’m inclined to give Restoring Hope a free pass regarding his six-wide 12th-place try in a one-turn mile that produced an aberrational finish (top three horses 39-1, 31-1 and 21-1, respectively).

So the Belmont just might be Restoring Hope’s first chance in months to run a race under comparatively favorable preparation and course-condition terms, making a substantial turnaround a realistic possibility for this vastly overlooked long shot.

6) NOBLE INDY (c, Take Charge Indy–Noble Maz, by Storm Boot) ‘TDN Rising Star‘ O-WinStar Farm LLC & Repole Stable. B-WinStar Farm LLC (Ky). T-Todd A Pletcher. Sales history: $45,000 RNA yrl ’16 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $691,600.

Noble Indy will have blinkers removed for the Belmont, perhaps suggesting that he’ll be out of the pace equation in terms of duking it out with Justify in the early going. To me, this ‘TDN Rising Star’ represents a true wild card in the third leg of the Triple Crown, and I’m not entirely sure what to expect of him coming off a five-week freshening since his slop-diminished 17th-place Derby performance. This $45,000 KEESEP RNA was forwardly placed in the early stages of the Derby, got fanned seven wide into the chaotic first turn, then was unable to assert himself with any spark before backing off. When you consider that this lightly raced, still-developing Todd Pletcher trainee also had a six-week gap between his Louisiana Derby win and his Kentucky Derby try, he should be a fairly fresh horse. His grandsire, A.P. Indy, won the 1992 edition of the Belmont, and while Noble Indy doesn’t rate as a top choice to wear a blanket of white carnations on Saturday, a win wouldn’t exactly be a shocker, either.

7) BRAVAZO (c, Awesome Again—Tiz o’ Gold, by Cee’s Tizzy)
O/B-Calumet Farm. T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 9-3-1-1, $436,528.

Bravazo is a hard-trying overachiever. But the sense here is that while he was a “live” 15-1 shot in the Preakness coming off a sneaky-good, wide-on-both-turns Derby, his Preakness second might represent the upper limits of his ability, and a leveling off or a regression at 12 furlongs might be expected for the Belmont. Other than potential Triple Crowner Justify, this Awesome Again colt will be the only member of the sophomore crop to contest all three legs of the Classics, and that’s an arduous assignment even considering Bravazo got a six-week break between the GII Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas certainly commands respect with 14 victories in Triple Crown races. But only one of those wins—a 15-1 upset by Oxbow (Awesome Again) in the 2013 Preakness—has come since 2000.

? FREE DROP BILLY (c, Union Rags—Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Helen K Groves Revokable Trust (Ky). T-Dale Romans. Sales history: $200,000 yrl ’16 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 9-2-3-2, $625,220.

Free Drop Billy holds the dubious distinction of being the only horse in the Belmont field not to have won a race so far in 2018, and you have to go all the way back to Oct. 7 to find the last time this son of 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags landed in the winner’s circle. In five races since, “Billy” always seems to be on the cusp of breaking through with a big effort, but he has simply failed to fire without obvious excuses.

The Derby seemed to be a spot where his one-strong-run closing style might have thrived, but the race unfolded with Billy being much closer to a solid early pace than expected, and he had no true response when roused for run under sloppy conditions. The 1 1/2-mile distance of the third leg of the Triple Crown is certainly within the scope of his stamina-centric pedigree. But you can also make that argument for about seven other horses in the race, so banking a bet on him based on the breeding angle alone probably won’t cut it in this spot.

9) BLENDED CITIZEN (c, Proud Citizen–Langara Lass, by Langhfuhr) O-Sayjay Racing LLC, Greg Hall & Brooke Hubbard.
B-Ray Hanson (Ky). T-Doug F. O’Neill. Sales history: $57,000 RNA yrl ’16 KEESEP; $85,000 2yo ’17 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 10-3-0-2, $406,854.

This Proud Citizen colt is a new shooter in the Triple Crown series, and while the win over the Belmont surface angle is unique to Blended Citizen (in fact, he’s the only entrant in this race to have even started at Belmont Park), he’s going to have to progress even further to be a major player against this crew. His May 12 GII Peter Pan S. victory was a grind-it-out, off-the-pace performance aided by a four-way speed duel and moderate fractions, and Blended Citizen’s only other stakes score came over the synthetic Turfway surface back in March when he enjoyed a gift-trip rail run into very slow splits.

Perhaps a mild case for him could be made off his fifth-place run in the GII Blue Grass S. two starts back, in which Blended Citizen was beaten only 4 1/4 lengths after encountering a deep-stretch impediment. But otherwise, it’s a handicapping reach to try and come up with plausible scenarios under which this miler-over-sprinter pedigreed sophomore excels at 12 furlongs.

10) GRONKOWSKI (c, Lonhro {Aus}—Four Sugars, by Lookin At Lucky) O-Phoenix Thoroughbred III. B-Epic Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $75,000 wlg ’15 KEENOV; 50,000gns yrl ’16 TATOC; 300,000gns 2yo ’17 TATBRE. Lifetime Record: SW, 6-4-1-0, $135,644.

Gronkowski qualified for a Derby berth based on winning the Europe Road to the Kentucky Derby invite, but his shipping Stateside for that race was derailed by a “minor infection” that made his connections aim for the Belmont instead. In the interim, this Lonhro colt has had a trainer switch to Chad Brown (whose first-time imports have won at a 25% clip), and he’ll run Gronkowski on Lasix for the first time (an angle that has produced a 26% win clip among Brown’s last 39 first-time first-Lasix starters). But beyond those positive statistical trends, the fact remains that Gronkowski has still never raced on dirt or beyond a mile, and the 12-furlong Belmont S. is about a difficult spot as you could pick at this stage of the season to find out where/if this colt fits among the top of America’s sophomore crop

[curious]

32 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I'm a bit worried now Curious he looks a bit fresh and seems to have bulked up even more.

I thought he relaxed pretty nicely into his work there for his first time on the track. Looks the part to me. Just a question of getting the right trip and getting the 1 1/2 miles I suppose.

[Chief Stipe]

Interesting comment about Gronowski where the trainer is going to race him on Lasix for the first time.

[curious]

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Interesting comment about Gronowski where the trainer is going to race him on Lasix for the first time.

Yes, that's a hell of a strike rate for first time Lasix. Might be  just a bit of a precaution here though since it's legal. I like the horse but quite hard to assess. I thought he was well overs at 25/1 but wouldn't back him now at 12/1.

I see the NZTAB has woken up and offered a market at a very generous 125%.

1		Justify	1.80
2		Free Drop Billy	34.00
3		Bravazo	9.00
4		Hofburg	5.50
5		Restoring Hope	34.00
6		Gronkowski	13.00
7		Tenfold	13.00
8		Vino Rosso	9.00
9		Noble Indy	34.00
10		Blended Citizen	21.00

[Weasel]

With the Belmont each year I have fun looking through the pedigrees to see which runners have Secretariat blood.

This year half the field has got at least two doses of Secretariat in their first five generations..and one runner has 3 !!

The hotpot has A P Indy (whose damsire is Secretariat) on both sides; 

My gut feeling is that Justify will come unstuck Sunday, esp if it is wet. I don't want him to (come unstuck) but the odds are against him and I didnt like the way he closed off the Preakness.

[Weasel]

CORRECTING MYSELF BFORE SOMEONE ELSE DOES..

Justify has Sexcretariat on both sides via Storm Cat (male line) and A P Indy female side) but 5 and 6 generations

The one I mentioned with A P Indy on both sides closer up is Hofburg.

 

[curious]

Bloody tough gig that Triple Crown ... and Baffert has been there.