Weasel Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 yes, good point! Still worth a truckload more now though. Thanks for posting the info over the last week or two, CS, about the Belmont ...ever since rediscovering TV footage of Secretariat's win on YouTube I've made a point of following quests for the Triple Crown ...and had an unexpected week in Kentucky in May 2013..(Orb's Derby) … saw Secretariat's grave and the statue of him at Churchill Downs.. amazingly there's been two more TC champions after the decades of waiting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 Was Restoring Hope's role to just sit outside him and try to stop anyone else pressing him? He seemed to retire on the turn unasked and left them to it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Paul Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 4 hours ago, curious said: Was Restoring Hope's role to just sit outside him and try to stop anyone else pressing him? He seemed to retire on the turn unasked and left them to it. My thoughts exactly, perfect stable riding... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 5 hours ago, curious said: Was Restoring Hope's role to just sit outside him and try to stop anyone else pressing him? He seemed to retire on the turn unasked and left them to it. Possibly but those behind still had the drop on him if they were good enough. They weren't. The first quarter was run in 23 seconds - a reasonable clip but the mile was only 1:38 - the last half in 46 seconds. So he had an easy middle section. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Justify The second horse to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at two since Apollo in 1882. The first horse to win the Triple Crown without racing at two. Only the second horse to win the Triple Crown as an unbeaten horse - the other being Seattle Slew in 1977. Justify's first race was on 18 February 2018 - that is he has only had 6 unbeaten starts culminating in the Triple Crown. The 13th Triple Crown winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 11, 2018 Author Share Posted June 11, 2018 4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Possibly but those behind still had the drop on him if they were good enough. They weren't. The first quarter was run in 23 seconds - a reasonable clip but the mile was only 1:38 - the last half in 46 seconds. So he had an easy middle section. Yes, I think that's what makes Gronkowski's performance remarkable. Must have run his last half mile in 44? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 11, 2018 Author Share Posted June 11, 2018 21 hours ago, Steve Paul said: My thoughts exactly, perfect stable riding... We are obviously not alone in thinking that. https://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/belmont-stakes/justify-stablemate-restoring-hope-helped-win-belmont-stakes-1.19118074 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 11, 2018 Author Share Posted June 11, 2018 On 10/06/2018 at 10:01 PM, Weasel said: yes, good point! Still worth a truckload more now though. Thanks for posting the info over the last week or two, CS, about the Belmont ...ever since rediscovering TV footage of Secretariat's win on YouTube I've made a point of following quests for the Triple Crown ...and had an unexpected week in Kentucky in May 2013..(Orb's Derby) … saw Secretariat's grave and the statue of him at Churchill Downs.. amazingly there's been two more TC champions after the decades of waiting. Never saw him race but saw him at work in the breeding shed a number of times and had the pleasure of shaking his tongue one day which he liked to pop out for a squeeze. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 3 hours ago, curious said: Never saw him race but saw him at work in the breeding shed a number of times and had the pleasure of shaking his tongue one day which he liked to pop out for a squeeze. Curious to know the circumstances of your meeting with Secretariat ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 11, 2018 Author Share Posted June 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, Weasel said: Curious to know the circumstances of your meeting with Secretariat ... Had an agistment farm out of Paris, Ky, a couple of country blocks away from Claiborne in the 80s and early 90s. Used to walk mares in there for covering and also often took visitors to see the stallions. Sir Ivor used to like his tongue rubbed as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 awesome..epic mate...got any pix you can post? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2018 Author Share Posted June 12, 2018 pix of what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 (edited) curious Report post Posted May 27 More seriously, with Audible out, I like Hofburg and Gronkowski. "I did leave it to Baffert of course, as I said I would. I note that I also correctly named the two most likely to beat him, including the second horse which was 69/1 at the time. Of course you'd have been on to that because of the trainers first time lasix strike rate of 25% I guess. Is that better than first time blinkers?" Talking about the disgraceful use of Lasix/ furosemide C, when will these drug cheats in the States fall into line with the rest of the racing World do you think?? You had to admire the calmness of many of the runners...while the crowd went wild... ...they just walked around like a Sunday stroll pretty much.. Do you think Lasix had anything to do with that calmness...lowering blood pressure and feeling chilled...for example?? On his near death bed...Northern Dancer's vet finally admitted he'd 'Lasix'd' him before the race...while the rest didn't have his new found drug knowledge to compete... ...imagine if he'd raced without it and lost...the Thoroughbred World would very probably be a different place right now Is it time for NZ to use Lasix to help us compete in the US market perhaps?? Imagine the power of a Lasix/Blinkers combo? Edited June 12, 2018 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, Thomass said: Imagine the power of a Lasix/Blinkers combo? Yep, I imagine about as much as knowing the penetrometer readings across the track. Is it worth more than Lasix/Blinkers Off? Maybe they should just tweet out the penetrometer readings. That way everyone will know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, mardigras said: Yep, I imagine about as much as knowing the penetrometer readings across the track. Is it worth more than Lasix/Blinkers Off? Maybe they should just tweet out the penetrometer readings. That way everyone will know. Considering you agreed the info should be made available... i.e. if the track manager takes 30 readings around the track to 4.5M..and writes them down...just take a screen shot of that...thanks Oh hold it...you may be wrong for accuracy sake if you're wanting that.. If they start racing from 6M and further out from the get go...wtf is the use? Are you saying the Lasix/Blinkers off should be discounted? Are they really trying if they stop Lasix or Blinkers after previously racing to a certain excellent standard?... If the Lasix component increases the chance by 25%, as C says...do you alter your bet and /or increase the neddys performance quotient of its previous starts?? In your world you trust the trainer....don't increase anything...and wait until the horse has bolted...without you on so naive... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thomass said: Considering you agreed the info should be made available... i.e. if the track manager takes 30 readings around the track to 4.5M..and writes them down...just take a screen shot of that...thanks Oh hold it...you may be wrong for accuracy sake if you're wanting that.. If they start racing from 6M and further out from the get go...wtf is the use? It should mostly be available although I question it should be to anywhere nears the lengths you go on about. Maybe three readings, one inner, one middle and one outer. On the basis you describe, they could give you readings at 4.5m of 5, at 6.0m of 5.2 and at 7.5m of 5.4. Then when they all run down the fast lane at 6.2m which happened to have a reading (undisclosed) of 4.8 you're going to go on about not knowing that the fast lane was there. It will never ending. 3 minutes ago, Thomass said: Are you saying the Lasix/Blinkers off should be discounted? Are they really trying if they stop Lasix or Blinkers after previously racing to a certain excellent standard?... If the Lasix component increases the chance by 25%, as C says...do you alter your bet and /or increase the neddys performance quotient of its previous starts?? In your world you trust the trainer....don't increase anything...and wait until the horse has bolted...without you on so naive... I certainly wouldn't change anything based on any gear change - certainly the first time it is used anyway. I have no information to assert it will improve the horse's performance. I am not commenting on Lasix since I don't know anything about it in regards performance. As for missing out. I would certainly rather miss out than bet on a horse where in the vast majority of cases, the gear change makes no difference. You will get far more wrong than you will get right. The evidence of that has been produced before based on every one you put up previously, before the race, losing. Seemed to be a number that you backed according to your post race reports however that were winners - but none of them pre race. Very convenient and naive of you to think that anyone would believe your tripe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 It doesn't matter where you do it...anythings better than nothing The readings down the entire straight at 3M should show a different reading to the entire 6M strip...5 readings in all... every Hundy Thats what would have happened at Wanganui.... The smart Jocks had obviously walked the track before the races...or been told the readings by the track manager...and knew to get off the fence...which they did... As for Lasix...C said it's 25%...and you know what a girly swot she is... So if the stats showed you the rating quotient on your selection to be winning by a length...and the undeniable overall facts point to a 25% improvement with Lasix...and you trust the trainer knows what he's doing...as you've constantly wanked on about Then wtf's a punter to do? Any sensible punter increases the stake in relation to the expected 25% improvement...that's what who knew?? Not you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 What undeniable facts point to a 25% improvement. I haven't seen them. And I've already said, I aren't commenting on Lasix. There are no undeniable facts pointing to ANY improvement with blinkers. If there are, show me some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 On 11/06/2018 at 8:29 AM, Chief Stipe said: Possibly but those behind still had the drop on him if they were good enough. They weren't. The first quarter was run in 23 seconds - a reasonable clip but the mile was only 1:38 - the last half in 46 seconds. So he had an easy middle section. Secretariat ran his only classy rival Sham into the ground with relentless speed and pressure in a head-to-head duel for 6F. Justify's rivals either couldn't match his cruising speed and/or weren't allowed to get to him cos Restoring Hope did a great job! Jusitfy prob could have run fatser - but not much - and both Secretariat and American Pharoah would've beaten hum easily (imo) ..the beauty of it all is that Justify only had to beat the best around at the time ..and only Gronkowski got near him after missing the start. Secretariat's sectionals below: Secretariat ran the first quarter mile in 23 3/5, the half mile in 46 1/5, five furlongs in 58 1/5, six furlongs in 1:09 4/5, a mile in 1:34 1/5, nine furlongs in 1:46 1/5 (tying the world record for a 9f race, and there is still 3f to go), a mile and a quarter in 1:59 (faster than his Kentucky Derby time; unheard of), 11 furlongs in 2:11 1/5 (3 seconds faster than Man O' War's 11f Belmont time) and, finally, the mile and a half in 2:24 flat. Interesting link below shows times comparison Secretariat v American Pharoah (whose time was approx 1.5 secs faster than Justify (2:28:18) https://www.businessinsider.com.au/american-pharoah-secretariat-belmont-video-2015-6?r=US&IR=T Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashoka Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Justify has, hitherto, done everything he has been required to do, and he has done it with aplomb. He showed, in the first two legs of his Triple Crown, that he is a street-fighting horse of singular ability, remarkably so given his lack of racing experience. He showed, in the Belmont Stakes, that he is in a class of his own. We witnessed, in this race, a masterclass delivered by both horse and rider. Both showed that they are, indeed, the masters of their chosen domain. Those who seek to diminish what Justify showed us on Sunday (our time) are simply chasing shadows. The time of the race is irrelevant in the given circumstances. Justify controlled the race from the front, his cruising speed eliminating most of his opposition well before the run home. Vinno Rossi, trained by Mr Baffert's great rival, Mr Pletcher, and Hofburg came to challenge, but could not sustain their efforts. Gronkowski got closest in the finish, but was never going to get to Justify's hindquarters. Justify won the Preakness without having to be ridden out fully. He coasted home in the Belmont. He has won all of his six starts. What more is he supposed to have done? Secretariat was an imposing physical specimen, perhaps the best-built racehorse of all time. Justify is also an imposing physical specimen. I am unaware of any detected faults in his conformation. We could be witnessing the career of the best racehorse to grace a racetrack since the immortal Secretariat. Only time will tell. I have thoroughly enjoyed and appreciated watching Justify win his last three races. I am really looking forward to experiencing the rest of his racing career. We all have our favourites. Justify has become one of mine. Cheers. Ashoka 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 18 hours ago, mardigras said: What undeniable facts point to a 25% improvement. I haven't seen them. And I've already said, I aren't commenting on Lasix. There are no undeniable facts pointing to ANY improvement with blinkers. If there are, show me some. It applies to any improvement that has been statistically proven.. If Northern Dance's vet had told you before racing on the magical LASIX ...and no other horse had the drug in its system...that the improvement would translate to even a 10% jump.. ...and you don't alter your ratings..until after the event... ...then how stupid are you??...even though you've "trusted the trainer" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Thomass said: It applies to any improvement that has been statistically proven.. You have provided no statistical proof of anything. And you keep going on about Lasix which is a drug. And used in a jursidiction I don't currently bet in. You seem to be continuing with the idea that it is sane practice to apply a statistic to each horse you assess purely based on a % of horses correlating with that statistic. It's like stats show that a horse carrying 60kg in a handicap race has a 20% greater chance of winning than a horse carrying 54kg in a handicap race. And then increasing your bet on horses you want to back because they are carrying 60kg. It's nothing short of stupidity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 This is Thomass's view of statistical proof. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 23 hours ago, Ashoka said: Justify has, hitherto, done everything he has been required to do, and he has done it with aplomb. He showed, in the first two legs of his Triple Crown, that he is a street-fighting horse of singular ability, remarkably so given his lack of racing experience. He showed, in the Belmont Stakes, that he is in a class of his own. We witnessed, in this race, a masterclass delivered by both horse and rider. Both showed that they are, indeed, the masters of their chosen domain. Those who seek to diminish what Justify showed us on Sunday (our time) are simply chasing shadows. The time of the race is irrelevant in the given circumstances. Justify controlled the race from the front, his cruising speed eliminating most of his opposition well before the run home. Vinno Rossi, trained by Mr Baffert's great rival, Mr Pletcher, and Hofburg came to challenge, but could not sustain their efforts. Gronkowski got closest in the finish, but was never going to get to Justify's hindquarters. Justify won the Preakness without having to be ridden out fully. He coasted home in the Belmont. He has won all of his six starts. What more is he supposed to have done? Secretariat was an imposing physical specimen, perhaps the best-built racehorse of all time. Justify is also an imposing physical specimen. I am unaware of any detected faults in his conformation. We could be witnessing the career of the best racehorse to grace a racetrack since the immortal Secretariat. Only time will tell. I have thoroughly enjoyed and appreciated watching Justify win his last three races. I am really looking forward to experiencing the rest of his racing career. We all have our favourites. Justify has become one of mine. Cheers. Ashoka very well said, Ashoka. Will they let Justify race as a 4yo though? As is often the case, these champs get retired to stud very early! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 On 14/06/2018 at 8:50 AM, mardigras said: You have provided no statistical proof of anything. And you keep going on about Lasix which is a drug. And used in a jursidiction I don't currently bet in. You seem to be continuing with the idea that it is sane practice to apply a statistic to each horse you assess purely based on a % of horses correlating with that statistic. It's like stats show that a horse carrying 60kg in a handicap race has a 20% greater chance of winning than a horse carrying 54kg in a handicap race. And then increasing your bet on horses you want to back because they are carrying 60kg. It's nothing short of stupidity. No it's part of a general argument through your inability to accept a 'given' i.e. drugs that make neddys go faster... ..before they run...not after Like Northern Dancer's vet who gave him Lasix before the race v others racing without... ...and your inability to take advantage of the known go fast after the Vet's whispered in your ear... ...you've being given insider trading knowledge yet you want to "wait until after the race to really confirm it"...idiot Its like being given the Lotto numbers...and you saying "you prefer to wait until it's actually proven" ..all the while telling us you "trust the trainer" wtf wouldn't you trust ND's vet? If a neddy I'm investing on has met my guidelines and is ahead of the field in ability...imo I add 20-30% to the investment with Blinkers ...I trust the trainer...you dont Absolutely nothing to do with investing on every first time Blinker wearer Btw wtf would I increase investments on a horse carrying more weight... ..it's got there through superior performances more than likely...that's all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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