Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid: 1984 Deferred?

[Chief Stipe]

I rarely watch the TV news nowadays.  For a long time I've decided to avoid it.  Journalism is bad enough in this country without having it reduced to 2 minute sound bites interspersed with dubious subjective images and video.  

So while taking time out and watching a mindless TV programme on free-to-air (that wasn't a house buying/renovation or cooking show) I saw a news flash that "NZ has eliminated the Coronavirus say PM."  That was followed by "only 6 new cases reported today."  Uh?!  Doesn't one statement contradict the other?

I thought I'd better look a bit deeper into this "news" by going online and checking out Stuff and the NZ Herald.  Why not, both news sites tout themselves as the purveyor of truth and investigative journalism.  Although now that the Government has promised to flick them both a large wallop of cash Stuff has stopped badgering us with ads to "donate a dollar" to keep the "media free."

It is reported that the Prime Minister said "we are following a strategy of eliminating not eradicating the virus" and that "elimination doesn't mean zero cases."  Now I pride myself in having a good vocabulary, of being able to understand the definition of words and to spell correctly, but, I asked myself, aren't the definitions of eliminate and eradicate largely the same?  Doesn't eliminate mean getting to zero of something?  

I started visiting dictionary websites and found as I thought that the meaning of eliminate and eradicate are essentially the same.  Both are synonyms of the other.  Both mean - to completely remove something that is not wanted or needed i.e. it means zero.

As happens later in life a distant memory starts slowly whirring away in the cerebral soft drive.  Haven't I read something some time ago about a system where words are given different meanings for the purposes of ideology.  Suddenly the memory sprang forth.  George Orwell's concept of Newspeak from his novel 1984.  In Orwell's words, Newspeak was "designed to diminish the range of thought." Newspeak was characterized by the elimination or alteration of certain words, the substitution of one word for another, the interchangeability of parts of speech, and the creation of words for political purposes. The word has caught on in general use to refer to confusing or deceptive bureaucratic jargon.  Coincidentally (or not) 1984 was set in a superstate called Oceania.

Which would you rather have Transparency or Truth?  Can you not have one without the other?

Part of the Government's strategy of so called elimination has been to "randomly" test people standing in supermarket queues to determine if Covid-19 infection is more widely spread than the identified clusters.  My BS antenna immediately shot up when I heard this - my university science training started whirring.  The testing was hardly a random sample of the population.  

For a start those people queuing at the supermarket were well enough to do so.  By Level-4 standards they were super well.  After all if you weren't, why risk being ostracised and snitched on by 200 people outside the supermarket when you coughed?  The point is the sample wasn't random.

My science brain started to go into overdrive.  I asked myself what were the tests they were doing?  Yes Covid-19 but what type of tests? 

There are four main types of Covid-19 tests:

1. RT-PCR - the testing for the virus RNA in nasal swabs;
2. Antigen testing - the testing for the toxin or other substance given off by the virus that initiates an immune response.  It isn't the virus itself and is normally taken as mouth swabs;
3. IgM Antibody testing - IgM is the first antibody released by the body in its immune response.  The "I" stands for Immunoglobulin which is produced by the white blood cells in blood.  Testing requires a blood sample;
4. IgG Antibody testing - IgG is an antibody created by the immune system generally after IgM and after the live virus has largely gone.  Again requires a blood test.

Tests 1 and 2 test for live virus i.e. "you've got it." Tests 3 and 4 test for the antibodies - "you've had it."

 

We don't actually know what type of tests they were doing but reading what was reported and viewing the pictures of the testing we can ascertain that they were tests derived from the taking of nasal swabs.

So what you might ask?  Well nasal swabs were the first tests developed for Covid-19.  They take samples of material at the back of the nose.  The test is for LIVE Covid-19.  Essentially the first tests developed looked for the signature viral RNA. (In simple terms viral RNA is like our DNA.  It is the genetic signature of the virus.) 

The tests are called PCR-RNA or RT-PCR.  They only need a small sample of the actual virus for testing and the test result can be achieved in hours.  They rely on the amplification of RNA in a laboratory. There are some drawbacks however.  The presence of the virus in the respiratory tract has been shown to be variable i.e. some people have the virus but it isn't present at the back of the nose.  Also unless care is taken with the samples certain environmental conditions will destroy or at best fragment the RNA so it cannot be identified.

The Antigen tests test for the toxins made by the virus not the virus itself.  These toxins have a virus specific signature.  The advantage of antigen testing is that the antigens are more stable and less prone to environmental degradation than RNA testing.  Generally they are taken by mouth or back of the throat swabs of sputum.

One could justifiably assume that the "random supermarket" test taken in NZ was the RNA test.  So we can then hypothesise that the testing undertaken to date was for "active" cases. 

No mass random testing for antibodies has yet to be undertaken.

So what you may well ask?

The Government has been focussed on active cases and deaths.  We don't know how much of the population have been infected, not detected and recovered.  We are not testing for that.  Data globally is starting to show a decline in the death rate.  But note that that rate is being measured as a ratio of deaths to confirmed cases.  Confirmed means a positive test for Covid-19 RNA or Antigens.  As more antibody tests are being undertaken it is being found that the rate of asymptomatic cases i.e. those that have had Covid-19 but with no symptoms or very mild symptoms is very high.

Is it likely that we have people in NZ who have had Covid-19 and not been confirmed as an official case?  More than likely.  Why aren't we seeing randomised testing for antibodies?  It may not support the Government's narrative.  

Random testing of 3,000 people in New York City has shown that 1 in five (21%) or 2.7 million people have Covid-19 antibodies.  That's nearly as many as the total Global confirmed cases.  12,000 people have died from Covid-19 in NYC.  We know that the majority of those people had comorbidities.  The death rate of people dead per confirmed cases is over 8%.  But when you include the number of people that have possibly been infected then the rate drops to less than 0.5%.

Now the figures are changing constantly and you may argue with the numbers used but what is clearly happening is that the more people that are tested the more the death rate drops.

Shouldn't we be testing the general population more?  Before we put the country in hock for generations to come.  Before we are forced to change our way of life?  Before we give up democracy?

Before we start changing the meaning of words such as elimination and zero.

Don't get me started on the inconsistency between the Politburo policy treatment of Covid-19 and influenza.

Covid-19 may prove to have the same annual death rate as the seasonal Influenza.  Why isn't Comrade Adern broadening Government funded Flu Vaccinations?  It is free to vulnerable people and "essential workers".  It costs the Phamarcies and GP's who administer the vaccine $9 a vaccine.  Those not eligible for a free vaccine are charged $35.

How many jabs could a trained nurse give in an hour at $26 a jab?

The point is an infection of the Flu AND Covid-19 doubles the chance of serious outcomes.

A shame our leaders haven't taken the Hippocratic oath as opposed to the Hypocrisy oath.

[Yankiwi]

Spot on CS.

The take from the responsible and give to the irresponsible crowd running parliament have no idea how well CV19 has been contained in the country.

Who's to say anyone's not home a dry cough and hasn't put their hand up to be tested? The same sort of person that's about to head up to the dairy to pick up some tobacco, filters and papers?

[mardigras]

 I stopped reading a third the way through. 

As to transparency and truth. You can definitely have one without the other. You can be transparent with lies and you can tell the truth without being transparent.

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

You can be transparent with lies

Only if you say they are lies.

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

Only if you say they are lies.

Nope. You may not know they are lies.

[Chief Stipe]

Maybe the numbers chap at the NZ Herald (or is it the MOH?) should get a job at the NZ TAB!

"there were 5 confirmed cases but 6 were considered probable.."  

So we get minus 1 confirmed cases for the day.

 

[Chief Stipe]

But wait there's more!  Whoever is doing the numbers could be a GM at you know where....

Again according to the MOH (yep this was reported on their website) we have had 1,121 confirmed cases of Covid-19 1,180 have recovered.  

Wow that's 59 more recoveries than confirmed!  Maybe Zero means minus something!

 

 

 

 

[mardigras]

Seems clear enough to me. Don't assume how to interpret everything you read - and equally, understand what is represented in what you are reading.

[Yankiwi]

2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

But wait there's more!  Whoever is doing the numbers could be a GM at you know where....

Again according to the MOH (yep this was reported on their website) we have had 1,121 confirmed cases of Covid-19 1,180 have recovered.  

Wow that's 59 more recoveries than confirmed!  Maybe Zero means minus something!

 

 

 

 

These sorts of numbers make perfect sense to those who blindly follow any leadership.

It seems under the MOH's reporting standard a probable case that has resolved was a covid case but a probable case that has not yet been resolved isn't one.

Smoke and mirror in an attempt to show that they are doing much better than they actually have.

[mardigras]

7 minutes ago, Yankiwi said:

These sorts of numbers make perfect sense to those who blindly follow any leadership.

It seems under the MOH's reporting standard a probable case that has resolved was a covid case but a probable case that has not yet been resolved isn't one.

Smoke and mirror in an attempt to show that they are doing much better than they actually have.

They probably make sense to anyone not blindly following any leadership.

They aren't likely important in the scheme of things anyway, but it sounds like you're reporting things are not going well. I was looking forward to Level 2 and some form of normality - but your news may prompt the government to take us back to Level 4. The chief won't like that.

[Chief Stipe]

20 hours ago, mardigras said:

They aren't likely important in the scheme of things anyway, but it sounds like you're reporting things are not going well. I was looking forward to Level 2 and some form of normality - but your news may prompt the government to take us back to Level 4. The chief won't like that.

I'm far from saying things are "not going well."  I'm actually saying they are going better than we are being told.

We didn't need to go to Lockdown Level-4.  Isolating the identified clusters and contacting the contacts didn't require that.

I just travelled to the supermarket and back in my stretched limousine driven by my personal uniformed driver.  OK ok it was the public bus but I was the only one on it and it does go from door to door!  

A new driver today - I like to rotate my staff.  The driver and family had just got out of 14 days quarantine after getting back from England.  We put them up in a hotel in Auckland.  I was astounded to learn that although they had their temperature taken they weren't tested for Covid-19.  This confirms my hypothesis that the only testing we are doing is RNA or Antigen.  Apparently no one in the hotel was tested unless they displayed symptoms.  Which seems a bit pointless when the virus can be asymptomatic i.e. display NO symptoms.

That was bad enough!  But then I learnt that the bus staff are stood down if they turn up with a cold even though they are segregated from their passengers by about 5 rows.  I asked given they were an essential public service had they been given free flu vaccines.  The answer was NO!

FFS!

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I'm far from saying things are "not going well."  I'm actually saying they are going better than we are being told.

My post was in response to Yankiwi who suggested things were being reported as being better than they are.

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

We didn't need to go to Lockdown Level-4. 

Maybe. I don't really care whether we needed to or not from an economic perspective. I don't see it making any real difference to things in NZ. If we were in lockdown for 10 weeks, I'd be thinking the lockdown is maybe worse economically than no lockdown (possibly). We'd likely know more if that point comes about. At less than that, it sounds like a good chance to chill out for a while, relax and read a few books or get the garden sorted or other such simple options.

I don't know whether lockdown is worse from a health perspective than no lockdown. There isn't sufficient data for me to formulate a view.