TDN Belmont Preview Presented by WinStar

[Wandering Eyes]

This week’s TDN GI Belmont S. Preview ranks the entrants in order of estimated win probability:

1) JUSTIFY (c, Scat Daddy—Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
‘TDN Rising Star‘ O-China Horse Club, Head of Plains PartnersLLC, Starlight Racing & WinStar Farm. B- John D. Gunther (Ky).
T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $500,000 yrl ’16 KEESEP. Lifetime
Record: MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $2,998,000.

Justify is the likeliest winner of the Belmont S., but that’s not the same as saying he’s a smart bet at or below his 4-5 morning line ranking. This undefeated $500,000 KEESEP Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) colt is going to have to defend multiple attacks over an unproven distance after an intense, five-week Classics campaign that is in itself part of a super-brief, pressure-packed career arc spanning only 156 days.

Jockey Mike Smith might as well be chasing history with a bullseye on his back considering how rival riders will be targeting his ‘TDN Rising Star’ on Saturday, and in particular, the second and third choices in the Belmont betting both loom as credible threats because they hail from A-list stables after having been freshened since exiting the GI Kentucky Derby with legit excuses.

But still, having laid out those potential stumbling blocks, the fact remains that Justify simply delivers what is expected of him–and often exceeds those expectations–every time he’s presented with a new challenge.

In the Derby, this long-striding colt was still hand-ridden through the far turn while repulsing a two-pronged attack from a pair of relentless rivals, and when set down straightening for home the brawny chestnut’s response was fluid and not at all nearing the limitations of his stamina depth. Justify’s Preakness win was a bit more of a scrappy showdown than expected, but he only lost style points and not the race, and he’s since had three weeks of rest followed by reportedly thriving in training.

The been-there-done-that aura of confidence that resonates around conditioner Bob Baffert and his 2015 Triple Crown-winning team no doubt only helps Justify’s chances, because his handlers are keenly aware of what to expect in terms of pressure and nerves when race day arrives.

2) VINO ROSSO (c, Curlin—Mythical Bride, by Street Cry {Ire})
O-Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable. B-John D. Gunther (Ky). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $410,000 yrl ’16 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-0-1, $620,500.

Sure, plenty of horses couldn’t handle the slop in this year’s Derby. But Vino Rosso appeared more out of his comfort zone than most of the also-rans, and trainer Todd Pletcher said after this $410,000 KEESEP Curlin colt’s ninth-place try that “I don’t ever remember flushing more mud out of a horse’s eyes than we did with him.”

Now, with the benefit of five weeks to recuperate and a return to training that included a recent bullet breeze, Vino Rosso is percolating as very live upsetter based on a similar skip-the-Preakness strategy that Pletcher utilized last year when he captured the Belmont S. with Tapwrit (Tapit).

If you are willing to completely toss out Vino Rosso’s Derby and focus on his aggressively won GII Wood Memorial S. as an example of a stepping-stone race that could get him a Classic, this distance-pedigreed closer could have the Belmont unfold in a fashion that suits him best (i.e., tag-team pace pressure on Justify early before Vino Rosso winds up for a prolonged stretch kick). Earlier in the spring, when jockey John Velazquez presumably had the option to choose among several of Pletcher’s Derby-bound horses, Vino Rosso became his hand-picked horse despite several uninspiring tries at Tampa Bay Downs. After a nice fighting-spirit win in the Wood, the colt’s development arc stalled in the Derby. But Vino Rosso now appears poised to pounce as the main danger in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

3) HOFBURG (c, Tapit—Soothing Touch, by Touch Gold) O/B-Juddmonte Farms, Inc. (Ky). T-William I. Mott. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-1-0, $227,950.

Hofburg has been a “wise guy” pick to win the Belmont ever since he galloped out past everybody else after the finish of the Kentucky Derby and trainer Bill Mott declared that this Tapit (Pulpit) homebred would bypass the Preakness to lie in wait for the third jewel of the Triple Crown. In the five weeks since, the Hofburg bandwagon has become crowded with supporters, and while he makes sense as a realistic win threat considering his stamina-centric bloodlines, it might be a bit of a reach to back Hofburg as a 9-2 second choice in a Classic race considering he’s never won beyond the maiden ranks.

Yet since his initial score back on Mar. 3 at Gulfstream, Hofburg has posted back-to-back “much better than they look on paper” efforts: First when closing determinedly to grab second in the GI Florida Derby, and again in Louisville on the first Saturday in May when he was committed to an inside bid but got shuffled back in traffic before tipping widest for the stretch run and steaming home with admirable late-race momentum. Upsetting Tripe Crown bids by Bob Baffert trainees just might run in Hofburg’s family, as damsire Touch Gold denied Silver Charm the 1997 Belmont S. by three-quarters of a length.

4) TENFOLD (c, Curlin—Temptress, by Tapit)
O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC. T-Steven M. Asmussen.
Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-2-0-1, $289,200.

Your opinion of Tenfold probably hinges on whether or not you think his third-place, three-quarter length finish behind Justify in the Preakness is the real deal or not. I think that’s the wrong measuring stick. Instead, focus on this colt’s entire four-race body of work, which although brief, gives a better illustration that this homebred is headed in the right direction.

Tenfold’s Beyer Speed Figures have gone up in every start even though he’s taken on tougher competition and increased distances at every step. He’s overcome adversity (bumped and wide in the Preakness), and this colt’s pace-pressing running style means he’s unlikely to be slugging it out on the lead, yet should still be able to snag a contending stalking spot not too far off the early action. If Tenfold is able to remain in the hunt to the top of the stretch, the bet will essentially be whether his distance-oriented pedigree (by Curlin out of a Tapit mare) is enough to put him over the top at 12 furlongs.

5) RESTORING HOPE (c, Giant’s Causeway—Symbol of Freedom, by Tapit) O-Gary & Mary West. B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: GSP, 5-1-1-2, $149,880.

Trainer Bob Baffert’s “other” horse in the Belmont S. is not as far-fetched a proposition as he might seem. In fact, if you go back in time prior to Justify’s February debut, Restoring Hope was getting his own share of ink in many pre-Derby prognostications before this Giant’s Causeway homebred missed the GII San Felipe with minor foot issue, then failed to make the earnings cut to enter GIII Sunland Derby.

Subsequent shuffling among Baffert’s Derby hopefuls in early April caused Restoring Hope to get re-routed to New York for the Wood Memorial, where he was a one-paced third, yet only 5 1/4 lengths behind the well-regarded Vino Rosso. He next showed up in the undercard GIII Pat Day Mile on Derby Day at Churchill, which was run in a relentless, pelting rain that was worse than the abysmally muddy conditions of the Derby itself two hours later. Because of the adverse weather, I’m inclined to give Restoring Hope a free pass regarding his six-wide 12th-place try in a one-turn mile that produced an aberrational finish (top three horses 39-1, 31-1 and 21-1, respectively).

So the Belmont just might be Restoring Hope’s first chance in months to run a race under comparatively favorable preparation and course-condition terms, making a substantial turnaround a realistic possibility for this vastly overlooked long shot.

6) NOBLE INDY (c, Take Charge Indy–Noble Maz, by Storm Boot) ‘TDN Rising Star‘ O-WinStar Farm LLC & Repole Stable. B-WinStar Farm LLC (Ky). T-Todd A Pletcher. Sales history: $45,000 RNA yrl ’16 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $691,600.

Noble Indy will have blinkers removed for the Belmont, perhaps suggesting that he’ll be out of the pace equation in terms of duking it out with Justify in the early going. To me, this ‘TDN Rising Star’ represents a true wild card in the third leg of the Triple Crown, and I’m not entirely sure what to expect of him coming off a five-week freshening since his slop-diminished 17th-place Derby performance. This $45,000 KEESEP RNA was forwardly placed in the early stages of the Derby, got fanned seven wide into the chaotic first turn, then was unable to assert himself with any spark before backing off. When you consider that this lightly raced, still-developing Todd Pletcher trainee also had a six-week gap between his Louisiana Derby win and his Kentucky Derby try, he should be a fairly fresh horse. His grandsire, A.P. Indy, won the 1992 edition of the Belmont, and while Noble Indy doesn’t rate as a top choice to wear a blanket of white carnations on Saturday, a win wouldn’t exactly be a shocker, either.

7) BRAVAZO (c, Awesome Again—Tiz o’ Gold, by Cee’s Tizzy)
O/B-Calumet Farm. T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 9-3-1-1, $436,528.

Bravazo is a hard-trying overachiever. But the sense here is that while he was a “live” 15-1 shot in the Preakness coming off a sneaky-good, wide-on-both-turns Derby, his Preakness second might represent the upper limits of his ability, and a leveling off or a regression at 12 furlongs might be expected for the Belmont. Other than potential Triple Crowner Justify, this Awesome Again colt will be the only member of the sophomore crop to contest all three legs of the Classics, and that’s an arduous assignment even considering Bravazo got a six-week break between the GII Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas certainly commands respect with 14 victories in Triple Crown races. But only one of those wins—a 15-1 upset by Oxbow (Awesome Again) in the 2013 Preakness—has come since 2000.

8) FREE DROP BILLY (c, Union Rags—Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Helen K Groves Revokable Trust (Ky). T-Dale Romans. Sales history: $200,000 yrl ’16 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 9-2-3-2, $625,220.

Free Drop Billy holds the dubious distinction of being the only horse in the Belmont field not to have won a race so far in 2018, and you have to go all the way back to Oct. 7 to find the last time this son of 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags landed in the winner’s circle. In five races since, “Billy” always seems to be on the cusp of breaking through with a big effort, but he has simply failed to fire without obvious excuses.

The Derby seemed to be a spot where his one-strong-run closing style might have thrived, but the race unfolded with Billy being much closer to a solid early pace than expected, and he had no true response when roused for run under sloppy conditions. The 1 1/2-mile distance of the third leg of the Triple Crown is certainly within the scope of his stamina-centric pedigree. But you can also make that argument for about seven other horses in the race, so banking a bet on him based on the breeding angle alone probably won’t cut it in this spot.

9) BLENDED CITIZEN (c, Proud Citizen–Langara Lass, by Langhfuhr) O-Sayjay Racing LLC, Greg Hall & Brooke Hubbard.
B-Ray Hanson (Ky). T-Doug F. O’Neill. Sales history: $57,000 RNA yrl ’16 KEESEP; $85,000 2yo ’17 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 10-3-0-2, $406,854.

This Proud Citizen colt is a new shooter in the Triple Crown series, and while the win over the Belmont surface angle is unique to Blended Citizen (in fact, he’s the only entrant in this race to have even started at Belmont Park), he’s going to have to progress even further to be a major player against this crew. His May 12 GII Peter Pan S. victory was a grind-it-out, off-the-pace performance aided by a four-way speed duel and moderate fractions, and Blended Citizen’s only other stakes score came over the synthetic Turfway surface back in March when he enjoyed a gift-trip rail run into very slow splits.

Perhaps a mild case for him could be made off his fifth-place run in the GII Blue Grass S. two starts back, in which Blended Citizen was beaten only 4 1/4 lengths after encountering a deep-stretch impediment. But otherwise, it’s a handicapping reach to try and come up with plausible scenarios under which this miler-over-sprinter pedigreed sophomore excels at 12 furlongs.

10) GRONKOWSKI (c, Lonhro {Aus}—Four Sugars, by Lookin At Lucky) O-Phoenix Thoroughbred III. B-Epic Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $75,000 wlg ’15 KEENOV; 50,000gns yrl ’16 TATOC; 300,000gns 2yo ’17 TATBRE. Lifetime Record: SW, 6-4-1-0, $135,644.

Gronkowski qualified for a Derby berth based on winning the Europe Road to the Kentucky Derby invite, but his shipping Stateside for that race was derailed by a “minor infection” that made his connections aim for the Belmont instead. In the interim, this Lonhro colt has had a trainer switch to Chad Brown (whose first-time imports have won at a 25% clip), and he’ll run Gronkowski on Lasix for the first time (an angle that has produced a 26% win clip among Brown’s last 39 first-time first-Lasix starters). But beyond those positive statistical trends, the fact remains that Gronkowski has still never raced on dirt or beyond a mile, and the 12-furlong Belmont S. is about a difficult spot as you could pick at this stage of the season to find out where/if this colt fits among the top of America’s sophomore crop.

 

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