Catalano Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 I love a two-mile race and this is the best Sydney Cup field I can remember. I’m liking the Japanese horse, Prestwick, with Moreira up. Apparently likes it right handed, and wants a firm track and good pace on - he’ll get all that. Who shot thebarman was finishing better than anything in the Tancred, and has to be a great place bet here. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Paul Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 (edited) Agree re' WSTB, his Tancred run was his best for a while. Charles Road (Sir) was impressive last Saturday, rise in class but won so well. Almandin the obvious, should win. My one over the odds is Gallic Cheiftain! Steve. Edited April 12, 2018 by Steve Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 If it wins I'll make it video of the week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Seen the result - maybe the winner was the omen bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Paul Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Seen the result - maybe the winner was the omen bet! Wrong thread but yes very much an omen bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 (edited) Almandin all the way for me. Fixed odds look good at the moment. Edited April 12, 2018 by pete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Charles Road - tossed on at the weight 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 The stats that matter – Sydney Cup weights Article Author Greg Polson 12 April 2018 2 Comments What sort of a task does the 2016 Melbourne Cup Winner Almandin face in the $2 million Sydney Cup (3200m) with 57kg? At first glance Almandin looks well placed as a last start Tancred Stakes winner, we know Lloyd Williams and his team have won three of the last 20 Cups, Almandin is proven at the two miles so there are plenty of ticks. As always, it's back to the stats to evaluate the chances of the ruling favourite. A total of 276 horses have started in the Cup over the last twenty years. For the purpose of this article, I have categorised the weights into three categories, 57kg and above, 55-56.5Kg and less than 55kg and used a cut off starting price of $11 meaning we are only looking at horses the betting market perceives as having a strong winning chance. Of those 22 horses have carried 57kg and above of which 17 have started at $10 or less for two winners, that’s a strike rate of 11.7 percent. If we restrict the data to 57kg, the identical weight Almandin has been asked to carry on Saturday, the result is similar, nine runners carried 57kg with eight of the nine starting at $10 or less, (the remaining runner was a $12 chance). One win was recorded in this sample. Compare these figures to the other weight categories. Fifty horses were weighted in the 55-56.5kg weight range, 19 were at $10 or less producing six winners or 36 percent. The remaining 204 carrying 55kg or less had 61 starters at less than $10 and produced 12 winners at 19.67 percent. Make up your own mind but for me the 57kg is a significant test for Almandin. Here’s the Sydney Cup winners for the last 20 years to help you find a winner. Year Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight SP Track Condition Start Prior 2017 POLARISATION Charlie Appleby Corey Brown 6 51.5kg $6.50 Heavy (8) 4th Doncaster UK 2016 GALLANTE Robert Hickmott Kerrin McEvoy 11 51.5kg $10 Soft (5) 3rd Manion Cup 2015 GRAND MARSHAL Chris Waller Mr Jim Cassidy 4 52kg $41 Soft (7) 3rd Chairman's Handicap 2014 THE OFFER Gai Waterhouse Tommy Berry 8 55kg $3.30 Soft (5) 1st Chairman's Handicap 2013 MOURAYAN Robert Hickmott Hugh Bowman 2 58kg $12 Good (3) 4th Chairman's Handicap 2012 NIWOT Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 2 55.5kg $4.20 Good (3) 4th Tancred Stakes 2011 STAND TO GAIN Chris Waller Rod Quinn 4 53.5kg $20 Heavy (8) 10th Chairman's Handicap 2010 JESSICABEEL John O'Shea Craig Newitt 10 52kg $5 Good (3) 1st Chairman's Handicap 2009 ISTA KAREEM Colin Little Craig Williams 6 52kg $6.50 Soft (7) 4th Chairman's Handicap 2008 NO WINE NO SONG Kevin Moses Damien Oliver 8 55.5kg $3.80 Soft (5) 1st Chairman's Handicap 2007 GALLIC Graeme Rogerson Steven Arnold 1 56kg $9 Soft (5) 1st Adelaide Cup 2006 COUNTY TYRONE Kris Lees Mr Jim Cassidy 8 55.5kg $15 Good (3) 8th Tancred Stakes 2005 MAHTOUM Kim Waugh Darren Beadman 10 52.5kg $3.80 Soft (5) 5th Tancred Stakes 2004 MAKYBE DIVA David Hall Glen Boss 8 55.5kg $3.50 Good (3) 3rd Tancred Stakes 2003 HONOR BABE Katrina Alexander Kerrin McEvoy 8 53kg $4 Soft (5) 2nd Chairman's Handicap 2002 HENDERSON BAY Neville McBurney Darryl McLellan 8 54kg $8.50 Good (3) 1st Chairman's Handicap 2001 MR. PRUDENT George Hanlon Corey Brown 7 50.5kg $8.50 Good (3) 3rd Easter Cup 2000 STREAK Robert Smerdon Steven King 1 53.5kg $9 Soft (7) 4th VRC St Leger 1999 TIE THE KNOT Guy Walter Shane Dye 3 50.5kg $3.70 Soft (7) 2nd Australian Derby 1998 TIE THE KNOT Guy Walter Shane Dye 3 57kg $1.85 Soft (5) 1st JRA Plate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jape2 Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 I don't know how many years ago it was that I backed a horse called Who Shot The Barman somewhere in the North Island and it won. I must check it out on the NZTR site. I have followed WSTB ever since. What a gallant performance. Sympathy to anyone who backed Zacada who was at leviathan odds as Glyn Tucker used to say. Looked the winner right up until the official photo was shown. Maybe two pixels and that is close. Probably a deadheat back in the old black and white pre-digital days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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