TDN Derby Top 12 for April 3

[Chief Stipe]

The news that rocked the GI Kentucky Derby Top 12 over the weekend involved No. 1-ranked McKinzie (Street Sense) having his training halted while conditioner Bob Baffert awaits further testing to determine the extent of a potential hind-leg injury. The colt was declared out of his expected start in Saturday’s GI Santa Anita Derby, and he has been removed from this list–at least temporarily–until a more definitive diagnosis reveals whether he is off the Derby trail for good. Subsequent reverberations have altered the makeup of the remaining ranked horses, several of which have had their prep-race plans changed in response to this news. The timing is crucial–this Saturday marks the most important weekend of nine-furlong preps on the Triple Crown calendar, with significant stakes at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Aqueduct, so be prepared for additional shuffling within this list in one week’s time.

1) BOLT D’ORO (c, Medaglia d’Oro—Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
O-Ruis Racing. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Mick Ruis. Sales History: $630,000 yrl FTSAUG ’16. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-1, $816,000.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 10
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 4; 1st GI FrontRunner S., SA, Sept. 30. 3rd GI Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 4
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 7
Equineline PPs. Caulfield on Bolt d’Oro. KY Derby Points: 64

For awhile over the past few days it looked like Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby would be a cakewalk for Bolt d’Oro. When arch-rival McKinzie defected from the race over the weekend, it initially seemed like we’d see the heaviest favorite of the year in a 3-year-old graded stakes. But Monday morning’s confirmation that the up-and-coming Justify (Scat Daddy) will now be re-routed from a projected start in the GI Arkansas Derby to face “Bolt” puts some spice back into Santa Anita’s showcase race for sophomores and tilts the playing field back to more of a challenge for the divisional kingpin. What makes this $630,000 FTSAUG Medaglia d’Oro colt’s second start off a prolonged layoff even more tantalizing are owner/trainer Mick Ruis’s repeated assertions that we still have not witnessed the fully cranked, 100% version of Bolt d’Oro. That’s a scary-good prospect to consider, and it’s an opinion shared by respected independent observers who have watched Bolt train this winter and spring. Ruis has also been on the record as saying that “we’re not babying him going into this race,” so get tied on for what could be a sublime performance that vaults this colt into the solid favorite’s role for the first Saturday in May–provided the horse lives up to the hype and can fend off a fresh, undefeated rival and what will likely turn out to be a slightly larger field of long-shot hopefuls. In his final Santa Anita workout for Saturday’s engagement, Bolt worked an in-company, no-pressure five furlongs Sunday in 1:10.20 (11/77).

 

2) MAGNUM MOON (c, Malibu Moon–Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Robert E. & Lawana L. Low. B-Ramona S. Bass, LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $380,000 yrl KEESEP ’16. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $577,800.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4
Last Start: 1st, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 17.
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 14
Equineline PPs. Caulfield on Magnum Moon.
KY Debry Points: 50

Magnum Moon’s lofty placement within this week’s Top 12 represents a gamble on my part based on a belief that his unrealized potential will leapfrog him into contention as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites once we see what he delivers in the Apr. 14 GI Arkansas Derby. And yes, this is a highly speculative ranking, especially considering that trainer Todd Pletcher just saddled the winners of the GII Louisiana Derby and GI Florida Derby on back-to-back weekends, and those horses today occupy slightly lower spots on my 3-year-old totem pole. Certainly, you could cite statistical trends that suggest this May 9 foal who didn’t begin his racing career until Jan. 13 is up against the grain of tradition for winning the Kentucky Derby. But we’re embarking upon an era when training methods, the spacing of races, and a reliance on in-race experience are shifting dramatically in North American racing, and it’s becoming increasingly more important to depend on a different set of emerging benchmarks to get young horses to peak in Classic races. This $380,000 KEESEP Malibu Moon colt gave the impression of a far more seasoned racehorse when he broke running, commandeered prime early-race placement, responded willingly to emphatic handling, then swatted away the favorite in the Mar. 17 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn. To top it off, this ‘TDN Rising Star’ looked like he had more left to give, and a stamina-strong pedigree suggests that Magnum Moon is likely to be able to handle nine (and subsequently 10) furlongs with similar, unruffled aplomb. He leveled a bullet :48.07 half-mile at Palm Beach Downs (1/13) Mar. 31 as part of his preparation for a return engagement at Hot Springs.

 

3) MENDELSSOHN (c, Scat Daddy—Leslie’s Lady, by Tricky Creek)
O-Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith.
B-Clarkland Farm (KY). T-Aiden O’Brien. Sales history: $3,000,000 yrl KEESEP ’16. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-0, $1,961,137.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12: N/A
Last Start: 1st, G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar.31
Accomplishments: 1st, GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, DMR, Nov.3; 2nd, G1 Darley Dewhurst S., NEW, Oct. 14
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 5
Equineline PPs. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

On the superlatives side, on Saturday we witnessed an 18 1/2- length blowout win in track-record time by a $3 million KEESEP Scat Daddy colt who is a half-brother to four-time champion Beholder (Henny Hughes). But the field for the G2 UAE Derby was not overly deep in terms of competition, and the Meydan races on Saturday generously rewarded forwardly placed runners, so it’s wise to temper Mendelssohn’s front-running blowout with those caveats so it doesn’t have such a too-good to-be-true aura. Yet even with that reality check under advisement, the performance resonates strongly, because this May 17 foal was attempting both his first start on dirt and his first go beyond a mile. He responded assertively to being asked to establish a prominent position straight from the starting stalls, was able to relax a bit in the middle stages of the race, then opened up at will in the home straight once the outcome had already been decided in his favor. “He is bred to handle the dirt, being by Scat Daddy,” said trainer Aidan O’Brien. “But that was an unbelievable performance. We weren’t sure how he would handle the distance, but you have to say he saw it out pretty well…. He is naturally quick and has a lot of tactical early speed. He did it the hard way, but he did it so easily. He is very well bred, he has a great physique, and you can see why he cost the lads a lot of money at the sales. We will look forward to going to Kentucky with him now.”

 

4) AUDIBLE (c, Into Mischief–Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
O-WinStar, China Horse Club & SF Racing. B-Oak Bluff Stables LLC (NY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $175,000 FTNSAR yrl ’16; $500,000 FTFMAR 2yo ’17. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-4-0-1, $882,920.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7
Last Start: 1st, GI Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 31
Accomplishments: 1st, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 3.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 5.
Equineline PPs.
KY Derby Points: 110

Audible stepped up in class, shouldered the burden of favoritism, and punched out another open-length victory in Saturday’s GI Florida Derby by doing what he does best–showing up and executing his task in straight-up, professional fashion. What this $500,000 FTFMAR New York-bred son of Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) might lack in flash or panache, he more than makes up for with consistency, capability, and an adaptable demeanor. Audible broke alertly, put himself into stalk mode without any fuss, then seemed a little too relaxed about five-eighths out, losing position at one point while widest on the backstretch. But he had the benefit of a colossally helpful pace boil-over percolating on the front end, and by the time the field hit the far turn, Audible was targeting and reeling in the horses in front of him, all under his own power. When jockey John Velazquez finally cued him to quicken, the bay responded immediately, and he drew off as much the best while being kept busy down the lane. “I think the farther he goes, the better he gets,” Velazquez added post-race. If you want to take the contrarian position, it’s true that Audible will be headed to Louisville without having faced a stern, multi-horse stretch-drive test at the graded stakes level: In his GII Holy Bull S. win, the favorites simply never fired and he opened up unopposed through the lane. And in the Florida Derby, the third- and fourth-faves in the betting dueled themselves into defeat while the second favorite reportedly bled. But it’s hardly Audible’s fault those races turned out that way. If anything, it’s to his credit that he’s an opportunist who reliably puts himself in good position and has the athletic ability to take advantage of whatever circumstances arise.

 

5) JUSTIFY (c, Scat Daddy-Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
‘TDN Rising Star’ O-China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Starlight Racing & WinStar Farm. B- John D. Gunther (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $500,000 yrl KEESEP ’16. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $66,000.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: 9
Last Start: 1st Allowance Optional Claiming, SA, Mar. 11.
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 7
Equineline PPs.
KY Derby Points: 0

Justify will stay home to contest Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby instead of shipping to Oaklawn next week for the Arkansas Derby. That’s part of the fallout from the previous No. 1-ranked horse on this list, McKinzie, being declared out by trainer Baffert, who conditions both colts. Will fate now deliver us a better matchup than Bolt d’Oro vs. McKinzie? It’s unusual for a two-for-two allowance-level winner to be ranked so highly on a Derby list this deep into the season, but this $500,000 KEESEP Scat Daddy colt’s first two afternoon attempts were so freakishly good that he has drawn glowing accolades and now has dizzyingly high expectations tacked onto his slim (but stacked) resume. He needs to deliver a first- or second-place try on Saturday to garner enough qualifying points to earn a berth into the Kentucky Derby, and a powerful six-furlong workout in 1:13.20 Monday morning at Santa Anita has him primed to attempt the jump into Grade I company at nine furlongs. “We’ll run here,” said Baffert, who was holding off on a next-race commitment until he got back from Dubai and watched Justify work in person. “He went nice and it looked like he handled it pretty well. As long as he comes out of it well, he runs.” This long-striding athletic specimen hasn’t been bounced around in a tenacious in-race battle just yet, but through the first three weeks of his racing career he already handled the shift from sprinting to routing, responded positively to an equipment change (blinkers off), and has proven himself both on a fast, dry track and a sealed muddy surface. “The sky’s the limit,” jockey Mike Smith said after Justify’s Mar. 11 shredding of an allowance field.

 

6) GOOD MAGIC (c, Curlin—Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
O-e Five Thoroughbreds & Stonestreet Stables. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings (KY). T-C Brown. Sales History: $1 million yrl KEESEP ’16. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-1-2-1, $1,255,000.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5
Last Start: 3rd, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 3
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 4.; 2nd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 7.
Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 7
Equineline PPs.
KY Derby Points: 34

Big news elsewhere on the Derby trail has allowed the 2-year-old champ to prepare relatively quietly for Saturday’s GII Blue Grass S., and over the weekend Good Magic drilled a half-mile bullet at Palm Meadows Training Center in :48 (1/54). This million-dollar KEESEP Curlin colt will start favored at Keeneland, where he’ll be looking to regroup off a beaten-fave third in the GII Fountain of Youth S. Although his lone career win was a very smart score in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over some imposing foes, the fact remains that Good Magic is still just one-for-four lifetime and direly needs a big win or an impressively close finish to be considered a top Triple Crown threat. Will he continue to employ a stalking style or will Good Magic attempt to force the issue a little more assertively in what is shaping up to be a sizable field for the Blue Grass? Trainer Chad Brown has predicted “a big forward move,” and depending on how Saturday’s other two important Derby preps shake out, a dominant performance could vault Good Magic forward several spots within the Top 12 heading into the final four weeks before the first Saturday in May.

7) INSTILLED REGARD (c, Arch--Enhancing, by Foresty)
O-OXO Equine LLC. B-KatieRich Farms (KY). T-Jerry Hollendorfer. Sales history: $110,000 RNA yrl KEESEP ’16, $1,050,000 2yo OBSMAR ’17. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-2-1, $244,000.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: 8
Last Start: 4th, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 17
Accomplishments: 1st, GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 13; 2nd, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 9.
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 7
Equineline PPs. Caulfield on Instilled Regard.
KY Derby Points: 19

The repercussions of McKinzie’s defection from the Santa Anita Derby trickle all the way down to spot No. 7 in this weeks’ rankings. In Instilled Regard’s instance, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer had indicated about a week ago that he’d prefer to race this $1.05 million OBSMAR son of Arch in a larger field as opposed to a shorter one. Although the floodgates weren’t exactly thrown wide open just because McKinzie was declared out of Saturday’s race, a couple more additional entries might emerge from the woodwork before Wednesday’s draw, and a slightly bigger bunch might afford a small pace-and-placement advantage to this talented colt’s attempted comeback off a puzzling, beaten-fave fourth in the GII Risen Star S. Draw a line through that one flawed effort in New Orleans, and Instilled Regard would still be ranked with the upper crust of the division at this stage of the season. A sharp-looking physical specimen with a deep pedigree, this multi-dimensional stalker was able to fuse tactical early prowess with a commanding late turn of foot to produce an eye-catching GIII Lecomte S. win back in January, but that breakthrough effort is now some 2 1/2 months in the rear-view mirror, and he needs to step up again on Saturday to prove he belongs in Louisville. Instilled Regard has now worked eight times since his last race, and a 1:01.60 (28/70) five-furlong maintenance move Mar. 31 served as his final timed tune-up prior to Saturday’s Grade I try.

 

8) NOBLE INDY (c, Take Charge Indy–Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
O-WinStar Farm LLC & Repole Stable. B-WinStar Farm LLC. T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $45,000 RNA yrl KEESEP ’16. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $691,600.
Mar. 13 TDN Top 12 Rank: 10
Last Start: 1st, Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 24.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 5
Equineline PPs. Caulfield on Noble Indy.
KY Derby Points: 110

Noble Indy might be the most under-the-radar of the three Todd Pletcher prospects ranked on this week’s Top 12, but he’s not yet over the top, talent-wise. Even looking beyond his past performance lines, progression was evident leading up to his GII Louisiana Derby win because this ‘TDN Rising Star’ keeps getting better at handling intrinsics like shipping, being saddled in front of large crowds, and responding positively to equipment changes like the addition of blinkers. More importantly, this $45,000 KEESEP Take Charge Indy colt showed at the Fair Grounds that he is capable of getting first run on a front-end target then being able to fend off multiple challengers through the stretch (even when they briefly wrested away the lead from him). He’ll have six weeks of spacing between the Louisiana and Kentucky Derbies, and it will be intriguing to see how Pletcher hones Noble Indy, especially knowing that through only four lifetime starts, the colt has already displayed a willingness to fight that some of the higher-ranked horses on this list haven’t proven they possess just yet.

 

9) ENTICED (c, Medaglia d’Oro—It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
O-Godolphin Racing. B-Godolphin (KY). T-Kiaran McLaughlin. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 5-3-0-1, $410,680.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: 11
Last Start: 1st GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 10
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 25 3rd, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 7.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 7
Equineline PPs.
KY Derby Points: 63

Enticed will attempt to get to Louisville via the New York route, which so far this season has proven to be a path of least resistance. But that level of difficulty could change if the shuffling at the top of this list causes some unexpected late action at the entry box for the GII Wood Memorial S. Judging by his last three races, it’s tough to know which Enticed will show up on Saturday. The version we saw storming down the Churchill stretch to fight out a photo in the Nov. 25 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. was this homebred Medaglia d’Oro colt’s most impressive performance to date. His Feb. 3 GII Holy Bull S. fourth as a flat, beaten favorite came without an obvious excuse. And Enticed’s last-out, one-turn mile score in the GIII Gotham S. doesn’t really tell us much because he coasted home under wraps after putting away a spent 35-1 pacemaker as his main stretch challenger. Enticed takes a while to wind up to hit his best cruising speed, and he does seem capable of torquing into higher gears when needed. But the in-race danger for this big-framed, robust colt is that he’ll get stopped or have to shift momentum so suddenly that he won’t be nimble enough to recover on the fly. “We had a perfect draw last time out and he was able to stay in the clear,” trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said. “Hopefully, we draw well and he runs well. He’s been training well and a mile and an eighth shouldn’t be a problem.”

 

10) SOLOMINI (c, Curlin-Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
O-Zayat Stables LLC. B-Glenna R. Salyer (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $270,000 KEESEP ’16 yrl. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $472,000
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: 12
Last Start: 2nd, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 17
Accomplishments Include: 3rd GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec.9; 2nd GI Frontrunner S., SA, Sept. 30; 2nd GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, DMR, Nov. 4
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 14.
Equineline PPs.
KY Derby Points: 34

The shock waves from McKinzie having his training put on hold with a potential injury filtered all the way down to stablemate Solomini’s ranking and next-race plans, as trainer Baffert confirmed to the Santa Anita press notes team on Monday that he will be detouring this $270,000 KEESEP Curlin colt from a projected start in the Wood Memorial to race in the Apr. 14 Arkansas Derby instead. Although the Wood is coming up on paper as a softer spot, both Baffert and Solomini’s owners, Zayat Stable, have had good luck at Oaklawn Park in the past, and Solomini himself handled that track when second despite trip trouble in the GII Rebel S. He’ll now get a rematch with Magnum Moon, who was 3 1/2 lengths clear of him last month, but expect a tighter, fitter Solomini in his second start back off a December layoff. This colt always seems on the verge of breaking through to a higher level, but at times he appears to be his own impediment to further progression, like when he lost focus in the stretch of the Breeders’ Cup, got DQ’d in the stretch run of the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, or got caught in tight and on the heels of a rival in his 2018 debut.

 

11) QUIP (c, Distorted Humor—Princess Ash, by Indian Charlie)
O-Winstar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International & SF Racing LLC. B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY). T-Rodolphe Brisset. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-1-0, $282,800.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A
Last Start: 1st, GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 10.
Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 7
Equineline PPs.
KY Derby Points: 50

Quip is a difficult read at this stage of the season. He’s lightly raced but owns a three-for-four record, and this ‘TDN Rising Star’ was a 19-1 upsetter of the GII Tampa Bay Derby after chasing a favored pacemaker through moderate splits all the way around the track coming off a 2 1/2-month winter layoff. The final clocking for the Tampa Derby came back as the slowest for that stake in 21 years, but the Beyer Speed Figure held up as a respectable 94, which represents a 17-point jump over his previous best number. How will he fire second back off the break, especially against a more talented bunch in Saturday’s Blue Grass? Note that this Distorted Humor colt has already posted an impressive wire job over the Keeneland strip going two turns (6 1/2-length allowance win back on Oct. 19), and looking farther down the road to a potential Derby berth in Louisville, it’s a plus that Quip broke his maiden over the Churchill surface. A Sunday in-company breeze in 1:00.40 (2/15) at Keeneland while ridden by jockey-turned-trainer Rodolphe Brisset featured Quip tracking a workmate from about two lengths back before finishing up on even terms.

 

12) FLAMEAWAY (c, Scat Daddy—Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus)
O-John Oxley; B-Phoenix Rising Farms (ON). T- Mark Casse. Sales history: $150,000 yrl KEEJAN ’16; $400,000 yrl SARAUG ’16. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-5-1-0, $504,834.
Mar. 27 TDN Top 12 Rank: N/A
Last Start: 2nd, GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 10.
Accomplishments: 1st, GIII Bourbon S., KEE, Oct. 8; 1st, GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 10.
Next Start: GII Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 7
Equineline PPs.
KY Derby Points: 30

Flameaway is currently parked at 18th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points list that determines entry eligibility, so a solid, point-earning showing in Saturday’s Blue Grass at Keeneland is imperative to his chances at landing a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. He slid off the TDN Top 12 rankings after his second-place try in the Tampa Derby, but he endured an eventful enough go in that race (bumped at break, steadied, closed fast off the turn into a speed duel but was slightly erratic down the lane) to think that a cleaner trip this weekend could produce a more solid, representative showing of what he can do. I appreciate the fact that this $400,000 FTSAUG Scat Daddy colt is a fighter on the lead and seems to thrive under pace pressure (go watch his six-way photo turf score in Gulfstream’s Kitten’s Joy S. as the prime example), and his versatility regarding footing is evident in that he’s the only Top 12 contender to have won so far over fast dirt, firm turf, mud, slop, and a synthetic surface.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order)
Blended Citizen (Proud Citizen): Blinkers-on, synth stakes winner at Turfway advances to Blue Gras S.; trainer O’Neill upset same Keeneland prep last year at 31-1.
Bravazo (Awesome Again): Currently ranked sixth on points and will go straight to Derby per Lukas: “He’s assured himself a spot, so I’ve got the luxury of having [several extra] weeks to fine tune him. I’ll have a nice fresh horse for the Derby, it looks like.”
Free Drop Billy (Union Rags): Currently ranked 20th on points; most recently third in GIII Gotham. Will try to be only third horse to sweep both GI Breeders’ Futurity S. and Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.
Gronkowski (Lonhro {Aus}): Qualifies for Derby via European points. Noseda: “He hasn’t got real gears but if he can get into a rhythm, he can keep in a rhythm a long time.”
Hofburg (Tapit): Very nice try when widest off turn in Florida Derby; couldn’t run down Audible yet never looked discouraged giving chase. Much better-than-looks try considering relative inexperience. If/when Mott sends one to Derby, pay attention.
Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford): Dueled into defeat in Florida Derby but has accrued enough qualifying points (ranked seventh) to start in Louisville. Romans: “You live by the sword, you die by the sword. We went wire to wire last time, but that doesn’t mean we don’t regroup and go back in the Derby.”
Restoring Hope (Giant’s Causeway): Baffert trainee missed San Felipe with minor foot issue, then failed to make earnings cut to enter GIII Sunland Derby. As of Monday Baffert was still undecided about next-race start.
Runaway Ghost (Ghostzapper): Qualifies on Sunland Derby victory points (ranked ninth). Will work once in New Mexico, followed by two works at Churchill.
Sporting Chance (Tiznow): Rerouted to Blue Grass instead of Arkansas Derby. Would likely have to win or finish second to earn Derby points berth.

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