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So a strong sale.

When Karaka shrank, the market sharpened: a deeper look at the metrics Written by Renee Geelen Australian buyers didn’t just turn up at Karaka in 2026 - they shaped it. With fewer horses on offer and the same competitive pressure, prices lifted across the board, particularly at the lower end, as scarcity did what it always does. Cover image courtesy of New Zealand Bloodstock Data from New Zealand Bloodstock website as at 28 January 2026 Karaka’s shift in 2026 wasn’t subtle: the catalogue was cut by 240 yearlings, the sale was compressed from five days to three, and the market responded exactly the way markets do when supply tightens. Book 1’s median lifted to NZ$140,000 (up from NZ$110,000) - but the real story was Book 2, where the median surged to NZ$60,000 from NZ$26,750. Tightening comes with a trade-off; with fewer horses offered, headline gross growth is always going to be capped, and total turnover now reflects volume discipline rather than demand fatigue. So it was particularly notable that gross increased across both books. A smaller sale, a tougher fight Across both books, 848 yearlings were catalogued in 2026 compared to 1008 in 2025. After four straight years sitting around the 1100 mark, the shape of the sale materially changed. Fewer lots meant more competition per horse, and a clearer lift in the floor, reflected in the averages, medians, and clearance rates. The biggest change came in book 2, moving from 448 lots in 2025 to 281 in 2026, a removal of 146 horses from that sector of the market and a reduction from two days to one. Book 1 tightened by 94 horses from 661 catalogued in 2025 over three days to 567 catalogued in 2026 over two days of selling. year   catalogued   offered   sold   clearance   gross   average   median   2026 567 520 422 81% $ 79,022,500 $ 187,257 $ 140,000 2025 661 588 457 78% $ 75,332,500 $ 164,841 $ 110,000 2024 682 607 473 78% $ 79,585,500 $ 168,257 $ 120,000 2023 644 582 461 79% $ 70,063,000 $ 151,980 $ 130,000 2022 636 558 430 77% $ 63,127,500 $ 146,808 $ 100,000 Table: Book 1 of Overall 5-year metrics NZB National Yearling Sale year   catalogued   offered   sold   clearance   gross   average https://bitofayarn.com   median   2026 281 248 188 76% $ 12,247,000 $ 65,144 $ 60,000 2025 427 355 270 76% $ 9,759,000 $ 36,144 $ 26,750 2024 443 378 265 70% $ 11,444,000 $ 43,185 $ 32,500 2023 435 376 267 71% $ 11,516,000 $ 43,131 $ 32,000 2022 466 385 247 64% $ 10,036,000 $ 40,632 $ 30,000 Table: Book 2 of Overall 5-year metrics NZB National Yearling Sale Where the lift really occurred Breaking Book 1 into quartiles shows where the tightening actually did its work. Rather than the gains being isolated to the very top of the market, every price band moved higher in 2026 - a sign that improved quality wasn’t confined to elite lots, but spread through the catalogue. Looking back across the past five years helps put that shift into context. While 2023 delivered a relatively strong median, it did so with a softer top quartile and a heavier reliance on the middle of the market. In contrast, 2026 shows broader strength, with each quartile lifting year-on-year, despite fewer horses changing hands. In 2026, every quartile average lifted by at least 12% on 2025. Rather than inflation driven by a handful of top-end outliers, the data points to a deeper, more competitive market across the whole of Book 1. year   book 1 sold https://bitofayarn.com   book 1 median https://bitofayarn.com   b1 q1 average   b1 q2 average   b1 q3 average   b1 q4 average   2026 422 $140,000 $396,699 $182,736 $110,943 $64,500 2025 457 $110,000 $347,958 $149,915 $92,161 $52,648 2024 473 $120,000 $341,829 $160,164 $98,934 $59,333 2023 461 $130,000 $292,797 $156,992 $97,500 $50,936 2022 430 $100,000 $316,116 $135,670 $80,938 $44,491 Table: NZB National Yearling Sale Book 1 Quartile analysis Measured by median, 2026 stands as the strongest Book 1 result of the past five years, with NZ$140,000 marking a clear step up from the NZ$110,000 recorded in 2025. Importantly, that lift came without an expansion in catalogue size - reinforcing that the market moved because buyers were prepared to pay more per horse, not because more horses were offered. The most pronounced gains came at the lower end. The bottom 25% of Book 1 horses averaged NZ$64,500, up from the previous peak of NZ$59,333 in 2024. Over the past four years, the cheapest quartile has lifted 31%, outpacing gains in the top end and confirming that the tighter catalogue materially reset the market floor. By reducing numbers at Karaka and diverting marginal stock into the Summer Sale and National Online Sale, New Zealand Bloodstock has effectively protected the integrity of Book 1. The result was greater consistency through the lower and middle bands, and a Book 2 market that responded even more sharply.https://bitofayarn.com Australian money set the tone New Zealand Bloodstock tracks buyer origin in two ways. Publicly reported results record the location of the purchasing entity, while internal data captures the end-user - the party funding the purchase. In most cases the two align, but where agents are involved, the internal data provides a clearer picture of where the capital is actually coming from. New Zealand Bloodstock provided this internal buyer-location data to The Thoroughbred Report. Using that internal measure, Australian buyers accounted for 48% of total gross sales across both books in 2026, up from 43% in 2025. funding buyer   2026 lots   2026 gross   2025 lots   2025 gross   Australia 242 48% 438 43% New Zealand 283 34% 227 41% Hong Kong 49 9% 44 10% China 24 4% 16 0% South Africa 9 2% 5 1% Singapore 9 1% 8 1% Table: NZB internal data by % of gross spend A broader buying bench In 2026, 218 individual buying groups competed for 422 Book 1 yearlings, purchasing an average of 1.94 horses per buyer. That compares with 217 buying groups in 2025, who purchased an average of 2.11 horses from 457 horses sold.https://bitofayarn.com David Ellis has been the leading buyer at Karaka for more than two decades and his influence on the sale remains significant. Over the past five years, however, his purchasing profile has evolved alongside the expansion of Te Akau’s Australian operations. In 2026, Ellis purchased 17 Book 1 yearlings for NZ$4.26 million, down from 31 yearlings and NZ$8.07 million in 2022. David Ellis | Image courtesy of Trish Dunell In practical terms, a similar number of buyers were ending up with fewer horses, increasing competitive pressure and reducing the ability of any one buyer to dominate the catalogue. year https://bitofayarn.com   lots   sold   median   buyers   lots per buyers   number of buyers who bought one lot   per cent buyers one lot   top buyer by volume   lots bought   top buyer gross   2026 567 422 $140,000 218 2 139 64% David Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ) 17 $4,260,000 2025 661 457 $110,000 217 2 130 60% Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ) 26 $4,497,500 2024 682 473 $120,000 253 2 159 63% Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ) 25 $5,700,000 2023 644 461 $130,000 229 2 138 60% Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ) 26 $6,035,000 2022 636 430 $100,000 212 2 133 63% Mr DC Ellis 31 $8,070,000 Table: Buyer behavoiur at NZB Contracted catalogue but similar vendor figures Despite the reduction in sale size, the number of vendors represented in Book 1 has stayed fairly static across the past five years. In 2026, the 567 yearlings catalogued were spread across 42 vendors, who presented an average of 13.5 yearlings each. The peak number of vendors was in 2023 when 48 different vendors showcased horses in book 1. Cambridge Stud | Image courtesy of Cambridge Stud Cambridge Stud was the leading vendors by lots sold in 2026, beating Waikato Stud into second from the top slot they’d held the previous four years.https://bitofayarn.com Cambridge Stud sold 50 yearlings in 2026. year   lots   sold   median   vendors   avg yearlings catalogued per vendor   biggest vendor   lots sold   gross   2026 567 422 140,000 42 14 Cambridge Stud 50 $10,640,000 2025 661 457 110,000 44 15 Waikato Stud Ltd 47 $6,010,000 2024 682 473 120,000 46 15 Waikato Stud Ltd 59 $8,730,000 2023 644 461 130,000 48 13 Waikato Stud Ltd 53 $7,792,500 2022 636 430 100,000 44 15 Waikato Stud Ltd 39 $7,860,000 Table: Vendor data over the last five years Stallion mix in Book 1 Across the past five years, the percentage of yearlings by New Zealand based stallions has stayed static at 72% of the catalogue, with Australian-based stallions making up the remainder of the yearlings presented.https://bitofayarn.com year   lots   nz based   aus based   international   nz %   2026 567 406 159 2 72% 2025 661 465 195 1 70% 2024 682 509 171 2 75% 2023 644 452 192 0 70% 2022 636 458 178 0 72% Table: Sire location in NZB Book 1

Trainer Brad Cox is not prone to any delusions of grandeur where it comes to the chances of Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo) against the likes of champion Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}), 'TDN Rising Star' presented by Hagyard Nysos (Nyquist) and GII Clark Stakes hero Magnitude (Not This Time) in the G1 Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse on Feb. 14. He also realizes that $20 million is a lot to play for and is keen to seize upon the opportunity that presents itself, knowing that he has his horse the best he can be in advance of the 1800-meter contest. “He's done very well, he deserves an opportunity and I'm glad he's been invited and excited about giving him a chance,” Cox said from South Florida, where the mercury reached a balmy 66 degrees Wednesday afternoon, significantly warmer than home in Kentucky. Having made the GIII Forty Niner Stakes the third graded success of his career Nov. 2, Bishops Bay went on to top the Keeneland November Horses of Racing Age Sale on a bid of $1.3 million from Pedro Lanz on behalf of the Saudi-based KAS Stables. The bay was on trial for a potential trip to the desert in the Dec. 6 GII Cigar Mile Stakes, came through that effort with flying colors and has since held his form, according to Cox. “He's training very well since the Cigar Mile here at Payson, he's had all his works here,” the trainer said. “He's doing very well and he looks amazing. It's going to be a tall task–with $20 million on the line, it's supposed to be.” Bishops Bay has recorded weekly breezes on a Saturday schedule over the deep surface at Payson since the first of the year, most recently drilling five furlongs in 1:01.60 on Jan. 24. He is scheduled to turn in his final local work this coming weekend. “He's been really good here,” Cox said. “Sometimes this Payson surface can get to some of them, but he's been handling it incredibly well. It's gives you confidence. He's a good horse and lots of times good horses work good on just about anything and he shows that. He's a classy horse to be around, beautiful horse physically. I remember loving him the first time I saw him at Warrendale Sales and he's been very good to us.” A $450,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase in 2021, Bishops Bay was a head second to next-out GI Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo (Arrogate) in the 2023 GIII Peter Pan Stakes and also rounded out the exacta underneath GI Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil's (Hard Spun) in the GIII Ohio Derby. Victorious in a single appearance at four, he well and truly arrived in 2025, with six wins in eight appearances, capped by the Cigar Mile. Though his best form of late has come at the mile, Cox is quietly confident that Bishops Bay can handle the added distance in Riyadh. “More confidence doing it around one turn as opposed to two turns based off what we've seen from him,” he said. “You have to look at it and treat it like an extended mile race. That track can be demanding and tiring late, I think he's going to have to be ridden properly. “It can be a challenging track, but I do like the idea that it's a one-turn mile and an eighth. If it were a two-turn mile and an eighth, it wouldn't be what I'd think would suit him, but the one turn definitely gives us a bit more confidence.” Cox will have a Saudi Cup entrant for the fourth time in the seven-year history of the race, his best result coming when Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming) was beaten less than a length into third by Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) two years ago. Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) struck for the barn in last year's G1 Dubai World Cup, and the trainer continues to learn on the job where it comes to traveling horses. “Saudi Crown gave us a big thrill and what I learned that day is that it's a long stretch and a tiring track there,” Cox said with a laugh. “I do think there is something about having the experience going over to places like Saudi and Dubai and it's definitely valuable to have that experience from a personnel standpoint.” Cox is of that mindset that goes 'you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.' He remains realistic about his Saudi Cup chances, but is clearly embracing the challenge that lies straight ahead. “He has to step forward, there is no doubt,” Cox said of his charge. “We've given him one opportunity in a Grade I to date. He ran a very respectable race there at Saratoga going seven furlongs [sixth in the Forego Stakes] and he probably wants to go a little further. He needs to step up and move forward and if he does and gets the right trip and some racing luck, I think we can be in the mix.” Bishops Bay flies to Saudi with the other Florida-based entrants for the program on Feb. 2.   The post Bishops Bay Thriving Ahead of Saudi Sojourn appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article

Florida-bred Mythical takes on seven rivals in the Forward Gal Stakes (G3) Jan. 31 at Gulfstream Park. View the full article

The TAB are happy for punters to lose, that is whythey advertise for punters and give bonus bets etc. If punters want to offload $100 bets then that is fine but if others want to offload larger amount  then that should be great for the TAB! Gambling business I thought the TAB was? In life people do things at different levels and different abilities!