wally Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 why is form showing 600 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 That's wrong Wals...first start...that form wasn't there last night....but somehow appeared Watch the 2 Hickman horses with Northern Hem form...and beautifully bred superior neddys wal...Mohaka and Balanto are in the Blue print too...multi up a few ffs... ...go nuts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Thomass said: That's wrong Wals...first start...that form wasn't there last night....but somehow appeared Watch the 2 Hickman horses with Northern Hem form...and beautifully bred superior neddys wal...Mohaka and Balanto are in the Blue print too...multi up a few ffs... ...go nuts thanks tommy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CrossCodes Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 hours ago, wally said: why is form showing 600 That confused me too. Just shows the ineptitude of the TAB, they now are putting incorrect form on the website. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CrossCodes Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 3 hours ago, Thomass said: That's wrong Wals...first start...that form wasn't there last night....but somehow appeared Watch the 2 Hickman horses with Northern Hem form...and beautifully bred superior neddys wal...Mohaka and Balanto are in the Blue print too...multi up a few ffs... ...go nuts The Hickman imports were both very ordinary. I see Stephen Autridge is training them, not a good start in what I presume are his first starters since getting the boot from Te Akau, the horses there certainly haven't missed his input. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 4 hours ago, Thomass said: That's wrong Wals...first start...that form wasn't there last night....but somehow appeared Watch the 2 Hickman horses with Northern Hem form...and beautifully bred superior neddys wal...Mohaka and Balanto are in the Blue print too...multi up a few ffs... ...go nuts I am assuming we don't back them as they didn't win?. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, barryb said: I am assuming we don't back them as they didn't win?. Thanks for that barryb, I was going to back tomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: Thanks for that barryb, I was going to back tomorrow Yeah, I am still struggling with all of this, but if we apply logic to T's selections (I know logic and Thomass don't go together) then that would say if they don't win we don't back them and never intended too. I am sure if we just keep trying we will reach Thomass's gold standard in punting excellence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, barryb said: Yeah, I am still struggling with all of this, but if we apply logic to T's selections (I know logic and Thomass don't go together) then that would say if they don't win we don't back them and never intended too. I am sure if we just keep trying we will reach Thomass's gold standard in punting excellence. Yes that might work. OK, I have one for tomorrow that I am not betting on. Though I will have if it wins. Got it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: Yes that might work. OK, I have one for tomorrow that I am not betting on. Though I will have if it wins. Got it. Perfect, that's the approach, however you are not to reveal the bet until after the race and only if it has won, if it doesn't win then keep quiet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Just now, barryb said: Perfect, that's the approach, however you are not to reveal the bet until after the race and only if it has won, if it doesn't win then keep quiet. excellent, I'll look forward to winning...or not (shhhh) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: excellent, I'll look forward to winning...or not (shhhh) That's how it works FTF. No one is backing the losers - surely? I mean, the last 8 races from Thomass (pre race) from his top selection, have resulted in 1 winner paying $2.30. The others don't get bet on and were never intended to be (even when paying less that that). That's the masterclass bit, don't back the ones that don't win - pure masterclass. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, mardigras said: That's how it works FTF. No one is backing the losers - surely? I mean, the last 8 races from Thomass (pre race) from his top selection, have resulted in 1 winner paying $2.30. The others don't get bet on and were never intended to be (even when paying less that that). That's the masterclass bit, don't back the ones that don't win - pure masterclass. it's pure genius really. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 16 hours ago, barryb said: Yeah, I am still struggling with all of this, but if we apply logic to T's selections (I know logic and Thomass don't go together) then that would say if they don't win we don't back them and never intended too. I am sure if we just keep trying we will reach Thomass's gold standard in punting excellence. No one will ever reach Tommy TomTom's standard, lads. I confidently predict that Tommy's response to the 'tip' on the Autridge pair will be that he told you to WATCH them, not punt on them. Of course, had they won, the response from the Tomster would change accordingly. This what elevates him to unattainable God-like status, at least in his own God-awful head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 (edited) another comment today for quattro katie race 1 Would win if she got back in but won't Edited October 11, 2018 by wally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Bugger...bugger...bugger. Have spent my punting career looking at the stats with some success though not a millionaire or anywhere near. Then along comes mardi and curious and barryb who start spouting off about it being all about the individual horse. What the hell ya all talking about? Been mulling it over, playing with the idea, my brain started to hurt. Took a panadol. Read the other day that something like 80% of winners come from on the pace or just off it. Makes sense. Then I realised I couldn't really use it to refine my punting. What about the horses that win from behind? I'm as confused as Mr T's tips. Then it strikes me... I don't need to know that stat, does me no good whatsoever. All I have to do is research each individual horse to see how it runs positionally and where it performs best. Took another panadol... Then I decided that if I trusted the trainer to present the horse as best that he or she could, then I could leave the tactics, gear changes etc to them. Much easier. Then I decided that if I trusted the rider of the horse, then I would leave the riding to them. Getting much easier. That leaves just the horse to worry about. Does that make it easier? Perhaps. Then I thought about weight carried by the horse. I have decided that if there is any factor that makes it a positive factor to use, it can't amount to much. With the randomness of horse racing, these factors are only guess work. Losing a race by 1 length equates to around .14 secs over 1200m (even this is an average). A horse being held up in the straight might lose a couple of seconds. That equates to around 14.2 lengths. Randomness of events starts to even out these factors. Guess I just have a look at what the horse has carried before and over what distance, class etc. Taking that time factor further. How many times has a maiden horse lost a race by 10 lengths only to win next up? The difference is around 1.4 seconds. Improvement with further input (training/trials) from the trainer allows for this turnaround. Don't get me started on class of race.... 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 "That equates to around 14.2 lengths" Actually won't be that much if they are still travelling at speed. Wrote this during a Mr T moment where I had consumed half a packet of panadol and was blinkered by the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, wally said: another comment today for quattro katie race 1 Would win if she got back in but won't Last start 3rd in Listed race, add 20%. Shadow roll off, nose band on, add 5%. Tomorrow, add 30% if it has won Edited October 11, 2018 by FeelTheFear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 FTF Back Grand Duke in Race 4, great price. Should be in the first few turning and hopefully the first one over the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, barryb said: FTF Back Grand Duke in Race 4, great price. Should be in the first few turning and hopefully the first one over the line. cheers mate, have got $23 on Bet Easy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 oh dear, very average ride, shes going to be a claiming app for a rather long time if thats anything to go by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 yea oh well never mind. Mr T will be in tomorrow to give a winner for today so I will be all square Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 3 hours ago, FeelTheFear said: yea oh well never mind. Mr T will be in tomorrow to give a winner for today so I will be all square I doubt it. He has a history of sulking. He goes away after he gets a hiding. And it is the weekend tomorrow. That's doll patch repair time. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 5 hours ago, mardigras said: I doubt it. He has a history of sulking. He goes away after he gets a hiding. And it is the weekend tomorrow. That's doll patch repair time. Give him space...It's all about positioning, blinkers, the whip rule, who's trying, weight relief and class...then there is the races of course, will be very busy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 On 11/10/2018 at 4:55 PM, barryb said: I am assuming we don't back them as they didn't win?. How did your last 4 tips go bazzmodo?? ..after a TIPPING MASTERCLASS. Of the Tri, Q and winner...all in one?? Oh that's right...you do Dunceclass... "I don't care if I have 50 losing bets" next Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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