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Bit Of A Yarn

HRNZ website issues


Nowornever

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4 hours ago, Nowornever said:

That was quick fixed now!

I noticed it couldn't be accessed for about 3/4 an hour at one point.

As to todays races.

Southland has become a lot like auckland or addington on some friday nights. So many favorites and hard to find anything worth betting on these days.

smaller size fields than there used to be seems to be a major contributing cause..

Then in some races you have the ferguson trained runners and you know no point backing against them as they generally win easy and can often run unheard of fast times. They had a non win horse run 2.54.4 for 2400m last week. Must be pretty demoralising for the locals having to compete in races like that and if you were thinking about racing a canterbury horse down there,you would think twice. 

7 winners today paid under $3.90. 1 did pay $20 but it was a first starter and had only ran at oamaru trials where there is no video coverage. Missile paid $11 but he was a risk as he went awful the start prior. He's a meister at $6 was one you could have backed. The whale had tipped nutcracker in that race so was no value and life of art,while looking a standout on recent form,you had to be weary because the well backed hoffman runner in the previous race had been a flop.Its a stable i find hard to predict myself so generally look for something else,if anything.

The whale did get the one winner today,the coaster. It opened at $2.70 which seemed a nice price but only the whale would have got on at that price as it immediately dropped when he backed it yesterday,like everything he tips does. 

But the point is,it was only a year or two ago that i used to look forward to southland meetings as it was a place that still had some winners that paid reasonable dividends. But i don't even bet in half the races there anymore. I would only spend about 1/20th of what i used to at southland meetings not that long ago.

I would say the bookies seem pretty on to it with some of their favorites. Sea fury only paying $2.50 seemed well under a realistic price,but it won easy. Falcons watch at $2.70 was a crazy one given his recent form,but he actually managed to run 4th so they weren't far away with there price.

I noted there was only about 21 different drivers who drove today,of which a handful were owner trainers who drove there own.Maybe thats where the drop off in participation has been. 

At least we have methven tommorow. Sounds like it will be very cold. The mile racing is a bit different,but its just a matter of factoring that in when making selections i suppose.

I've just looked at the ff dividends.It seems only 1 i like is paying slightly more than it should,but its off ur and not sure whether the driver will make a move early enough,so a risky bet.

i did like americano,but hes only paying $3 which seems too short even if i think he may win. Apatchoffold only paying $2.50 another i like that really is too short to be worth backing.

Stephs boy may look a top chance,but at $1.90 not worth betting on. I have just looked and the whale has tipped americano and stephs boy,so thats probably why they paying such silly prices.

Anywat thats my ramblings about todays racing.

Edited by the galah
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40 minutes ago, the galah said:

7 winners today paid under $3.90. 1 did pay $20 but it was a first starter and had only ran at oamaru trials where there is no video coverage.

I wondered why Matthew Williamson didn't come off the fence at the 800m and then got shuffled back to last on Lime In A Bottle when he labeled it his best bet of the day. When his other horse in the race won like a $2.00 favourite and paid $20 I realised why.  Well played sir. 

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49 minutes ago, the galah said:

I've just looked at the ff dividends.It seems only 1 i like is paying slightly more than it should,but its off ur and not sure whether the driver will make a move early enough,so a risky bet.

The pools at Methven tomorrow will be nowhere near as good as a Sunday meeting and the mile racing will kill the interest as well. 

Bring on Cup day for those good fields and big pools.

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23 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

I wondered why Matthew Williamson didn't come off the fence at the 800m and then got shuffled back to last on Lime In A Bottle when he labeled it his best bet of the day. When his other horse in the race won like a $2.00 favourite and paid $20 I realised why.  Well played sir. 

Did you think he was throwing a dummy pass?

I see he has only been training the winner for 2 or 3 weeks. Maybe it just went better than he thought it would. B barclay who drove it also elected to stay on the pylons at the 1200,but got off near the 700m. The winning of the race was when he made his move and he got around them while the pace was still just average.i think B barclay just made better tactical moves. 

That was a strange race where it looked like the drivers all expected the p williamson trained favorite would win,and they all just drove a bit negatively. Seemed a strange move for b williamson,driving the 2nd favorite, to give the lead away to his stablemate with 1000m to go after setting a rather slow pace. I guess he must have thought the favorite would be too good,but it just stopped.

 

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14 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

The pools at Methven tomorrow will be nowhere near as good as a Sunday meeting and the mile racing will kill the interest as well. 

Bring on Cup day for those good fields and big pools.

Agreed, serious punters I would doubt would be offloading on a grass track over 1700metres,

If you’re out the back you have no show!

Be in front and you are in the money!

Harness should be looking to retain its existing punters and attracting new ones, but this isnt going to occur, while the programmers keep up with this short distance racing!

 

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11 hours ago, the galah said:

Did you think he was throwing a dummy pass?

I see he has only been training the winner for 2 or 3 weeks. Maybe it just went better than he thought it would. B barclay who drove it also elected to stay on the pylons at the 1200,but got off near the 700m. The winning of the race was when he made his move and he got around them while the pace was still just average.i think B barclay just made better tactical moves. 

That was a strange race where it looked like the drivers all expected the p williamson trained favorite would win,and they all just drove a bit negatively. Seemed a strange move for b williamson,driving the 2nd favorite, to give the lead away to his stablemate with 1000m to go after setting a rather slow pace. I guess he must have thought the favorite would be too good,but it just stopped.

 

Hopefully!  Nothing better than seeing a good old fashioned setup sneak under everyone's radar.

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