Have the TAB bookies got the odds right?

[Walt]

Just looking at two horses in the big trot tonight.

 

Muscle Mountain @ 5.5 fixed

&

Oscar Bonavena @ 8 fixed

 

Muscle Mountain is a top quality trotter but if I put aside his outstanding record and just focus on a couple of other factors. Rightly or wrongly, I feel his best days are behind him. Still very capable of winning numerous more races but not against this company...in my opinion. When he won first up this campaign he had a short margin over stablemate Midnight Dash who is @ 81 fixed tonight. Oscar Bonavena ran motherless in that race where he was obviously not nailed down after a short break. 

His next up win was easy but break that down. He was drawn the pole against Mystic Max who is @ 51 fixed tonight from a good draw and Midnight Dash. Very nice win but context always important. 

Then I look at the driver. Ben seems a lovely young man who has improved considerably in recent seasons. He is however not a driver I put in the same category as Mark Purdon, Chris Alford, Greg Sugars and Tony Herlihy. That's nothing bad as very few are and Ben is still young. 

Tonight Mystic Mountain will be nailed down fitness wise but so will the rest of the field. If he is going to be in the finish tonight he'll need to work hard. I have noticed him looking very tired late in his races when he's had to work. Ben will need to bring his A-Game. Good luck to him. He'll need his share. I'm not punting but if I was I'd be ok to lay him.

Then I look at Oscar. Leading up to his fail first up he was flying. We can put his first up run down to a lack of fitness. It wasn't an important race in comparison to his actual target tonight.  He showed how much his fitness level had improved when he comfortably beat Queen Elida last week all be it by a smallish margin. 

I don't believe his draw tonight is as big a disadvantage as Muscle Mountain's draw. Oscar is flying and we all know what sort of record the All Stars have in the big money races. 

Then I look at the driver. I rate Mark Purdon as being in the top three NZ drivers. I'm confident Mark will have Oscar putting in when the whips are cracking. He's @ appealing odds @ 8. 

I'd have Oscar @ 5's and Muscle Mountain @ 10's.  Having said that, Just Believe looks terribly hard to beat. I can see Queen Elida leading up and Just believe parking up which he's good enough to win from. If he doesn't take the top he will risk Oscar sitting on Queen Elida's' tail and using the passing lane. Greg Sugars will be awake to that prospect.

Would be interesting to see who the drivers of the best chances rate as their biggest danger. The Aussies have all copped great draws so we do have a NZ v Australia clash. Can't wait to watch it unfold. 

Both feature races tonight are fascinating. Hope the rains stay away.

What say fellow yarners? 

Edited April 12 by Walt

[the galah]

3 hours ago, Walt said:

Just looking at two horses in the big trot tonight.

 

Muscle Mountain @ 5.5 fixed

&

Oscar Bonavena @ 8 fixed

 

Muscle Mountain is a top quality trotter but if I put aside his outstanding record and just focus on a couple of other factors. Rightly or wrongly, I feel his best days are behind him. Still very capable of winning numerous more races but not against this company...in my opinion. When he won first up this campaign he had a short margin over stablemate Midnight Dash who is @ 81 fixed tonight. Oscar Bonavena ran motherless in that race where he was obviously not nailed down after a short break. 

His next up win was easy but break that down. He was drawn the pole against Mystic Max who is @ 51 fixed tonight from a good draw and Midnight Dash. Very nice win but context always important. 

Then I look at the driver. Ben seems a lovely young man who has improved considerably in recent seasons. He is however not a driver I put in the same category as Mark Purdon, Chris Alford, Greg Sugars and Tony Herlihy. That's nothing bad as very few are and Ben is still young. 

Tonight Mystic Mountain will be nailed down fitness wise but so will the rest of the field. If he is going to be in the finish tonight he'll need to work hard. I have noticed him looking very tired late in his races when he's had to work. Ben will need to bring his A-Game. Good luck to him. He'll need his share. I'm not punting but if I was I'd be ok to lay him.

Then I look at Oscar. Leading up to his fail first up he was flying. We can put his first up run down to a lack of fitness. It wasn't an important race in comparison to his actual target tonight.  He showed how much his fitness level had improved when he comfortably beat Queen Elida last week all be it by a smallish margin. 

I don't believe his draw tonight is as big a disadvantage as Muscle Mountain's draw. Oscar is flying and we all know what sort of record the All Stars have in the big money races. 

Then I look at the driver. I rate Mark Purdon as being in the top three NZ drivers. I'm confident Mark will have Oscar putting in when the whips are cracking. He's @ appealing odds @ 8. 

I'd have Oscar @ 5's and Muscle Mountain @ 10's.  Having said that, Just Believe looks terribly hard to beat. I can see Queen Elida leading up and Just believe parking up which he's good enough to win from. If he doesn't take the top he will risk Oscar sitting on Queen Elida's' tail and using the passing lane. Greg Sugars will be awake to that prospect.

Would be interesting to see who the drivers of the best chances rate as their biggest danger. The Aussies have all copped great draws so we do have a NZ v Australia clash. Can't wait to watch it unfold. 

Both feature races tonight are fascinating. Hope the rains stay away.

What say fellow yarners? 

Was a good race to watch.

The start was interesting and the aussies had each others tactics sussed from the start. All 4 aussie drivers ended up in the perfect positions  and dominated the race tactically.

Just believe just such a tough horse mentally controlled the speed and deserved the win.

Of the new zealanders,midnight dash went ok and i thought muscle mountain,although only 7th was still good but it was obvious with a round to go he wasn't in the right position to expect to win against such good auusies.

On to the pacers shortly.

[Newmarket]

Yep, Aussie drivers to good in trot, controlled the race. Didn’t have bet, hate leaders bias

[Walt]

The draw was a shocker for Muscle Mountain but in truth, any draw would have likely tripped him up. I'm not bagging Ben for having a dig for the top or trying to be wise after the event but the decision to go forward early was never going to be a good one. The moment he went forward was game over for him. He couldn't work extra against that field and still be in the finish. The Aussies would never hand up after being gifted perfect draws. Having said that, the bias all night was leader or top two or three. Had Muscle Mountain sat back he would likely have still finished at the tail end.

No mention made of the luckless Oscar. He was climbing over them in the home straight but couldn't get a crack. He's finished full of running but still looking for gaps. I'm not saying he would have won with a clear run but he would have gone very very close.

I feel luck comes into far more @ Cambridge than Addington. If we want a more authentic race, we need to factor that in. 

I will say that from what I saw on the telly last night it was a well run show that was great for harness racing......just maybe at the wrong track

Edited April 12 by Walt

[TAB For Ever]

On 4/13/2024 at 8:35 AM, Walt said:

The draw was a shocker for Muscle Mountain but in truth, any draw would have likely tripped him up. I'm not bagging Ben for having a dig for the top or trying to be wise after the event but the decision to go forward early was never going to be a good one. The moment he went forward was game over for him. He couldn't work extra against that field and still be in the finish. The Aussies would never hand up after being gifted perfect draws. Having said that, the bias all night was leader or top two or three. Had Muscle Mountain sat back he would likely have still finished at the tail end.

No mention made of the luckless Oscar. He was climbing over them in the home straight but couldn't get a crack. He's finished full of running but still looking for gaps. I'm not saying he would have won with a clear run but he would have gone very very close.

I feel luck comes into far more @ Cambridge than Addington. If we want a more authentic race, we need to factor that in. 

I will say that from what I saw on the telly last night it was a well run show that was great for harness racing......just maybe at the wrong track

Get Serious Walt ,

Oscar was up against World Class opposition here.

Mark Purdon would not have been unhappy with draw cos he had options and would not have wanted to burn at start.

I've watched the replay 36 x times and Oscar ran as well as he could have and was not climbing over the top 2 at line .They both worked hard and the last 800/400 times suggest Oscar ran a nice race but on the night was outclassed !

[Walt]

5 hours ago, TAB For Ever said:

Get Serious Walt ,

Oscar was up against World Class opposition here.

Mark Purdon would not have been unhappy with draw cos he had options and would not have wanted to burn at start.

I've watched the replay 36 x times and Oscar ran as well as he could have and was not climbing over the top 2 at line .They both worked hard and the last 800/400 times suggest Oscar ran a nice race but on the night was outclassed !

Bullshit.....you wouldn't know your arse from your elbow. I don't give a shit how many times you've watched the replay. Even blind Freddy could see Oscar Bonavena had used very little energy during the run tucked away back on the inner and was searching for gaps in the straight. I didn't say he would have beaten the winner with a clear run but would have gone very close. I don't know which race you were looking at but all you've done is highlight your ignorance. Your statement that he was   "outclassed" is also ridiculous.

It's clear your thing on the site is brown nosing the TAB and being a passive aggressive ignorant dick. You've been very successful at both. Well done. 

 

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=1B1443C2-0B76-41F0-BD49-8C7CADBFFDAE&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

[TAB For Ever]

17 hours ago, Walt said:

Bullshit.....you wouldn't know your arse from your elbow. I don't give a shit how many times you've watched the replay. Even blind Freddy could see Oscar Bonavena had used very little energy during the run tucked away back on the inner and was searching for gaps in the straight. I didn't say he would have beaten the winner with a clear run but would have gone very close. I don't know which race you were looking at but all you've done is highlight your ignorance. Your statement that he was   "outclassed" is also ridiculous.

It's clear your thing on the site is brown nosing the TAB and being a passive aggressive ignorant dick. You've been very successful at both. Well done. 

 

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=1B1443C2-0B76-41F0-BD49-8C7CADBFFDAE&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

Thanks for the kind words Walt !

But face a few of the facts that were there for all to see.......

Oscar has had a great season against so-so opposition ....a great form line ,but in all pre-race discussions he was mentioned about 5th or 6th chance. At race time he started 4 /5 in betting on tote , longer at fixed odds.

And he ran up to that ......MM burn't gas at start got pushed back and lost ground out wide on turn so finished less than a length from Oscar. Midnight M finished a nose behind Oscar after getting dragged along behind him.

The top two Aussies are World Class performers.....top notch , and the third Aussie fancy had whipped one of them recently.

Check the results....they had ideal draws ,good drivers and seasoned travellers. 

Maybe a stand start 3200m would see Oscar giving them a challenge. 

[Walt]

51 minutes ago, TAB For Ever said:

Thanks for the kind words Walt !

But face a few of the facts that were there for all to see.......

Oscar has had a great season against so-so opposition ....a great form line ,but in all pre-race discussions he was mentioned about 5th or 6th chance. At race time he started 4 /5 in betting on tote , longer at fixed odds.

And he ran up to that ......MM burn't gas at start got pushed back and lost ground out wide on turn so finished less than a length from Oscar. Midnight M finished a nose behind Oscar after getting dragged along behind him.

The top two Aussies are World Class performers.....top notch , and the third Aussie fancy had whipped one of them recently.

Check the results....they had ideal draws ,good drivers and seasoned travellers. 

Maybe a stand start 3200m would see Oscar giving them a challenge. 

I did ask you to look elsewhere.

You see only what you want to see. How nice for you. Chances are you still put teeth under your pillow convinced you've previously seen the tooth fairy.

Just to clarify some input. I stated in the thread starter that the draw for Oscar was less of an issue than it was for Muscle Mountain. That proved accurate

I didn't anticipate the Hope's would throw all their eggs into one basket by having an authentic dig for the top. The reason I didn't anticipate it was due to the fact there was very little chance it would be successful. In the unlikely event he made the top he would have used a lot of gas only to then get attacked by the Aussie brigade. The actions of young Ben highlighted they felt their options were limited. I stated prior to the race that despite Muscle Mountain starting at 5's, I was happy to lay him had I been wagering. 

I rated Muscle Mountain 100-1 about 100 metres after the start. 

Oscar meanwhile was smoking his pipe back on the inner. He had virtually no hope of getting off prior to the home turn. I didn't say he was climbing over the leaders at the finish. I said that happened in the home straight which was 100% correct. He tried to go on the outside but Arcee Phoenix occupied that spot. He looked for a run inside but Queen Elida occupied that space. He had nowhere to go. Inside the last 100 Mark knew even if a miracle happened and an opening appeared, there wasn't enough time or distance to get the job done. Where others finished around Oscar is totally irrelevant if he was not afforded the opportunity to improve. 

Had a run appeared turning in Oscar would have run in three for certain. I wouldn't say he would have beaten Just Believe who I have great respect for but would have gone close. When you consider all the facts, my statement there has considerable merit.

Your statement that Oscar Bonavena was "outclassed" is the most ridiculous statement I've ever read on this forum. 

You're also displaying a high level of ignorance to state Oscar Bonavena is better suited to standing start two mile racing. He won another mobile mile just the week before ffs. He has a mile time to has credit of 1.55.2. That's a time many of the greats would be proud to own. Lyell Creek's best mile time in NZ was almost half a second behind Oscar's. Obviously Lyell Creek was the better horse. I only quote mile times to highlight the absurdity of another of your statements. 

Oscar also won the mobile NZ FFA over 1980 metres in December from barrier seven. He has performed with distinction over all distances from behind the mobile arm and standing starts. 

My advice to you. 

Don't misrepresent my words and keep your condescending patronizing bullshit away from my input.

Learn to read races authentically and blinker free before rubbishing the perspective of people who have spent almost five decades repeatedly reviewing the form from many thousands of races and made a good living for 20+ years off the punt. Paid off the mortgage of our Auckland home almost exclusively from harness racing wagering.

Long term these days I get it wrong with my picks for races about as often as I get it right but own every one of my losing picks. As a result, I'm happy to share my perspective before and after races.