Newmarket Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 11 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: So how do you explain that the horses that are winning now are running faster than during your so called "blood era"? You name their runners lately that are running quicker times, this is gonna be good. I wait with excitement…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Anecdotal evidence by its very definition is unreliable and often untrue. Frankly it's a more sophisticated term for gossip. Harness Racing is full of that gossip and most of it is malicious. As for the All Stars falling off their pedestal it hasn't happened yet. Their performance is still within their normal seasonal variance. Yes I'm saying early crow and wishful thinking by those who have often been their biggest critics. Time will tell if the Purdon dynasty continues. I never suggested the All Stars have or will fall off their pedestal and nobody else is either. That is how you've chosen to interoperate via your own lens. What has been "asked" relates to the absolute dominance the All Stars have enjoyed for many seasons coming to an end. Completely reasonable question given the different sets of circumstance. The Purdon name both North and South will continue on winning Group 1 races as long as there is harness racing. They are that good right down to their bone marrow. You minimize anecdotal evidence / observations as often untrue, unreliable and even stoop to referring to it as sophisticated gossip. I'm in my early 60's. I've come into contact with people all over the world. I can talk the ears off a dead donkey so no subjects are taboo yet I've never heard anyone ever refer to anecdotal evidence as "sophisticated gossip". If you are correct to make what I consider an absurd comparison then I should return tens of thousands of $$ won via anecdotal evidence to the TAB. Would I wager my children's life on anecdotal evidence? No, but neither would I minimize, misrepresent or mock it either. Anyone that wagers based on stats alone will have their success for certain but so will those who routinely refer to anecdotal evidence. Some days one will win more than the other but both are valuable wagering tools and light years from gossip. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 17 minutes ago, Walt said: I never suggested the All Stars have or will fall off their pedestal and nobody else is either. Bollocks! Re-read your own opening post and the next four. All stating or inferring that the All Stars aren't doing as well as they normally do. The stats don't actually support those inferences 5 months into the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 23 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Bollocks! Re-read your own opening post and the next four. All stating or inferring that the All Stars aren't doing as well as they normally do. The stats don't actually support those inferences 5 months into the season. When I'm considering my wagers I look at numerous factors that may even go back several generations in the bloodline. That however rarely supersedes what the horse and trainer did last week. No need to re-read my previous posts. I know what I "asked" and stand by it. There are a combination of reasons why the All Stars have been so dominant. Remove some of those factors including the biggest factor and my question is entirely reasonable and even appropriate. Yes, the All Stars will continue winning Group 1 races but the complete dominance in the big money races is now being challenged. I don't give a monkey's what the last five months say. I wasn't referring to that. Obviously, I'm talking about the next five, 12, 18 months and beyond. Revisit this topic in a years time and then do some comparing. If the record books prove me wrong I will happily own it. I make mistakes. Do you? The last guy that lived his life without making a mistake ended up getting nailed to a cross. If you're wrong, I will send you some wet wipes to clean the egg off your face and remember different perspectives are the heart beat of this site. Not so elsewhere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 1 hour ago, Walt said: Yes, the All Stars will continue winning Group 1 races but the complete dominance in the big money races is now being challenged. I don't give a monkey's what the last five months say. I wasn't referring to that. Obviously, I'm talking about the next five, 12, 18 months and beyond. Well of course they had the fan-fare and spent time off on holiday, after Amazing Dream won the Auckland Cup 2020 . Hence the Galah has noticed the 'less result' if you like , during the Cullen and Nathan era ever since. You and I notice change as well . And you asked the question about the other stables of Barry, Telfer ,Dunn closing in. I think you're right. With Marks stable finishing 2nd in All of the latest Grin Race, the last NZ Cup, the last NZ Derby, even the last Roy Purdon Memorial , so it seems the field has caught up. Mark would normally win them all lol 😆😉🏆 He has won the 3 year old Sires Stakes again though > and OscarB did win the Dominion, so Not all is lost . The Auckland Cup will tell the story soon. must be next week maybe?..Having Quinellaed that race a few times in recent years , including last year, and they (Mark Purdon stable) have WON the LAST 8 Auckland Cups !! (with 7 different horses) a truly gobsmacking amazing effort. No One else will Ever come near that streak . perhaps the best trainer driver in the world Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 27 minutes ago, Gammalite said: Well of course they had the fan-fare and spent time off on holiday, after Amazing Dream won the Auckland Cup 2020 . Hence the Galah has noticed the 'less result' if you like , during the Cullen and Nathan era ever since. You and I notice change as well . And you asked the question about the other stables of Barry, Telfer ,Dunn closing in. I think you're right. With Marks stable finishing 2nd in All of the latest Grin Race, the last NZ Cup, the last NZ Derby, even the last Roy Purdon Memorial , so it seems the field has caught up. Mark would normally win them all lol 😆😉🏆 He has won the 3 year old Sires Stakes again though > and OscarB did win the Dominion, so Not all is lost . The Auckland Cup will tell the story soon. must be next week maybe?..Having Quinellaed that race a few times in recent years , including last year, and they (Mark Purdon stable) have WON the LAST 8 Auckland Cups !! (with 7 different horses) a truly gobsmacking amazing effort. No One else will Ever come near that streak . perhaps the best trainer driver in the world As per normal Gammalite your perspective makes sense to me bar one aspect. I don't ask the question about the All Stars based on one race or one meeting. They could come out and win the Auckland and Rowe Cup's as they are terrific at getting their stars ready for the elite big money races. Even if they did so it wouldn't lesson the validity of my question about their dominance in future big money races. We can talk about the races they've won over the last few months and it's an impressive list but we can also talk about the quality races they didn't win. It's been a while since that dynamic existed. Almost rocking horse poo With Mark elsewhere and openly talking about other priorities etc, the next 12 months will be telling. Potentially, very telling. It's perplexing that asking what I consider to be a valid and reasonable question would attract negativity and niggle. Go figure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 48 minutes ago, Gammalite said: Dunn closing in Excuse me how the hell is the Dunn stable "closing in"?! The Dunn's have had nearly 4 times the number of race starts and their UDR is substantially less than Mark and Nathan Purdon. The Dunn's return per start is $3,424. M&N Purdon: $9,952 i.e. 3 times the Dunn's! Seems the Purdon's are doing a lot less work for 3 times the return!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 2 hours ago, Walt said: Obviously, I'm talking about the next five, 12, 18 months and beyond. Yes but your analysis doesn't stand up to the facts i.e. the stats! Which it is not surprising as it is based on anectdotal evidence. An average of 0.43 UDR over the life of the partnership is not too bad at all. Plus $4m in stakes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 17 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Excuse me how the hell is the Dunn stable "closing in"?! The Dunn's have had nearly 4 times the number of race starts Not only does 4 times the number actually force you to close in. You can actually start to push the rivals out of the quinella altogether . Physics and maths Chief 😆😉 Clearly demonstrated firstly by Barry Purdon and Phelan Quinellaed not one , but 2 Group races at Auckland on Friday night. But also by your man John Dunn winning BOTH the Group races at Addington on Friday night . the $50k 2 year old trot, But even more Importantly . Space. Space. Space> The prestigious Group 1 $100,000 2 yearold pace Welcome Stakes , running the quinella . He had 3 in it. The Allstars had 2 and were flogged by John with 'Got The Chocolates'. A Dunn horse ran 2nd as well. What is going on mate? John won the prestigious Trotting Derby and trotting Oaks with Sunny's Sister( flogging Mark there too) not long ago , and of course you saw what Sundee did to Oscar of Marks on several occasions (and everybody else) obliterating the World Record trotting 2 miles in 3 .56 at Addington. he was fast as the very best Pacers. staggering performances at times. So not only have the Dunn's caught up Chiefy matey, they are starting to overtake ? Heisenberg even winning lately ? 😁😂 Walt and the Galah are making me nervous. And Nat Rass drove a 'Dunn Trained horse' in the Group 1 Fillies Sires Stakes at Auckland and ran 3rd on Friday night .😳 Alarm alarm !! Good Grief !! is nothing sacred in NZ anymore .??😎😉 Is she trying to help the Dunn's overtake ? I better give her a call and tell her to pull her head in a bit ? 😅 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 28 minutes ago, Gammalite said: times. So not only have the Dunn's caught up Chiefy matey, they are starting to overtake ? Heisenberg even winning lately ? 😁😂 Walt and the Galah are making me nervous But on most measures they are not catching up. All Stars still have the better ROI and 7 months to go in the season. The Dunn stable has been starting 3 to 4 times more than AS for years with little change in average ROI or UDR. Has Lurch suddenly learnt how to drive or is Dexter on his way home now that INCA is well done and dusted? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 39 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: But on most measures they are not catching up. All Stars still have the better ROI and 7 months to go in the season. The Dunn stable has been starting 3 to 4 times more than AS for years with little change in average ROI or UDR. Has Lurch suddenly learnt how to drive or is Dexter on his way home now that INCA is well done and dusted? I don't think Dexter will be home anytime soon unless he stops earing over $1million dollars every year 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 19 minutes ago, Nowornever said: I don't think Dexter will be home anytime soon unless he stops earing over $1million dollars every year Very good point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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