Punting 1.01

[VC!]

A few more questions 

You rate all the races in NZ why? When you hardly bet on NZ racing

I live in OZ and see you rate even the country races do you do all these ratings yourself?

How many horses would you find value with say on a Saturday and back in NZ and Australia? as I don’t do the UK 

 

[FeelTheFear]

20 minutes ago, mardigras said:

It's a personal consideration I guess. I typically don't alter anything for the jockey. But when it comes to betting, I won't bet on certain jockeys. I don't adjust prices for them, but some I don't think are good at putting horses into races. So in that respect, if you think a jockey rides a track well, then at least you may be of the view your horse will get the opportunity to run to its potential.

I rated Beeharry on Hoofbeat in race 10 today as a positive factor. Not because of the allowance of 60kg but because he is riding very well this season. I liked the horse without him. 

[mardigras]

11 minutes ago, VC! said:

A few more questions 

You rate all the races in NZ why? When you hardly bet on NZ racing

I live in OZ and see you rate even the country races do you do all these ratings yourself?

How many horses would you find value with say on a Saturday and back in NZ and Australia? as I don’t do the UK 

 

I provide my prices to a few close mates - so I do NZ for them. I do all the prices myself for NZ/Aus/Ire/UK. I can do HK at times for friends but the main issue is having sufficient information to do them properly.

My approach is a little different to the norm. I attempt to identify the time each horse will run in the race in question. And a confidence around that time. Which is where I then do simulations based on running those races with those times (and degrees of error) primarily against a normal distribution to tell me the chance factors. 

As for how many I find, heaps. But I don't back them all as I prefer to have less losses so I'm looking for some specifics around my price and the available prices.

I used to operate primarily as a bookie. But if you can price OK, you can do either. I still run a number of books, mostly targeting horses that I rate as having less than a 3% chance but are paying well below the odds I believe they should be. 

I'm could bet on more horses, but I prefer the idea of losing less often (even if the ultimate returns would be higher). Betting on 25 runners that I assess at 4% that are paying 30+ means I'm likely to lose 24 of the 25 times.

So I'd typically back around 8 to 20 horses on a Saturday. And I'd lay around 150. 

And on betfair, I'd warn people who take SP odds on NZ racing on 'roughies' to use caution. The liquidity is so poor, the SP prices are often below what you could get most other places. That diminishes of course with an event with higher liquidity.

[Brown fox]

Bridget Grylls 4 placings from 5 mounts so far at Cromwell.A welcome addition to the Southern ranks if she chooses to make it

permanent.

[VC!]

8 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I provide my prices to a few close mates - so I do NZ for them. I do all the prices myself for NZ/Aus/Ire/UK. I can do HK at times for friends but the main issue is having sufficient information to do them properly.

My approach is a little different to the norm. I attempt to identify the time each horse will run in the race in question. And a confidence around that time. Which is where I then do simulations based on running those races with those times (and degrees of error) primarily against a normal distribution to tell me the chance factors. 

As for how many I find, heaps. But I don't back them all as I prefer to have less losses so I'm looking for some specifics around my price and the available prices.

I used to operate primarily as a bookie. But if you can price OK, you can do either. I still run a number of books, mostly targeting horses that I rate as having less than a 3% chance but are paying well below the odds I believe they should be. 

I'm could bet on more horses, but I prefer the idea of losing less often (even if the ultimate returns would be higher). Betting on 25 runners that I assess at 4% that are paying 30+ means I'm likely to lose 24 of the 25 times.

So I'd typically back around 8 to 20 horses on a Saturday. And I'd lay around 150. 

And on betfair, I'd warn people who take SP odds on NZ racing on 'roughies' to use caution. The liquidity is so poor, the SP prices are often below what you could get most other places. That diminishes of course with an event with higher liquidity.

That’s brilliant 

Well done on all your success and continued success 

 

[Newmarket]

Mardigras, 

You say you back between 8-20 horses to win, lay around 150 betfair. How do you work out your stake on each bet? Also, i have had a bit of a look at laying betfair aussie racing, with mixed results. 

Would be interesting with your views for laying, win or place? Just one runner each race, or several? 

Sometimes it puts me off laying, when a horse is paying far more than the totes on betfair? 

[mardigras]

29 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Mardigras, 

You say you back between 8-20 horses to win, lay around 150 betfair. How do you work out your stake on each bet? Also, i have had a bit of a look at laying betfair aussie racing, with mixed results. 

Would be interesting with your views for laying, win or place? Just one runner each race, or several? 

Sometimes it puts me off laying, when a horse is paying far more than the totes on betfair? 

Since it all runs automatically, I set an acceptable exposure on the markets for laying, and lay to that exposure. I usually set my application to check and adjust prices 4 times per race. Could be just one runner or at times 5 or 6 runners. I have laying set to not take SP as I want to control whether price is sufficiently below my assessed price.

I lay both the win and place markets. 

The horses will usually be paying more than the totes, but I lay based on that price compared to chance so even though it is higher, it still has to fall within criteria around that.

With backing, I usually use set stake. Although at times I change it and bet to return a % of 'bank'. I've tried many variations on betting to bank %, betting to overlay rate. End results have shown little variance to ROI. So I usually just set it to what I think is good for the day. Staking plans are fine, but I don't see a lot of variance overall.

When I was seriously betting, I used to operate as a bookie on UK markets. Running books starting from 18 - 30 hours out from a race. In doing that, I would look to lay the entire field. Always initially to below my price, and also laying off some at higher prices than my own ratings (although only at the point of approaching start time) on the basis I would generally take guaranteed cash than sit with a high exposure. UK markets are great for that as they have strong liquidity.

I stopped doing that after a couple of times when my house lost power in the middle of the night and I was left with markets all over the place with limited ability to adjust prices or get out of the market. Those times were too stressful so I reverted to just laying those under my prices and limiting the exposure to what I was happy losing on those markets. Then I don't have to worry if the power goes off.

The marketplace varies. Some layers come in and seem desperate to take bets, so set the high price. I think patience is a key ingredient to using betfair. 

[Newmarket]

55 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Since it all runs automatically, I set an acceptable exposure on the markets for laying, and lay to that exposure. I usually set my application to check and adjust prices 4 times per race. Could be just one runner or at times 5 or 6 runners. I have laying set to not take SP as I want to control whether price is sufficiently below my assessed price.

I lay both the win and place markets. 

The horses will usually be paying more than the totes, but I lay based on that price compared to chance so even though it is higher, it still has to fall within criteria around that.

With backing, I usually use set stake. Although at times I change it and bet to return a % of 'bank'. I've tried many variations on betting to bank %, betting to overlay rate. End results have shown little variance to ROI. So I usually just set it to what I think is good for the day. Staking plans are fine, but I don't see a lot of variance overall.

When I was seriously betting, I used to operate as a bookie on UK markets. Running books starting from 18 - 30 hours out from a race. In doing that, I would look to lay the entire field. Always initially to below my price, and also laying off some at higher prices than my own ratings (although only at the point of approaching start time) on the basis I would generally take guaranteed cash than sit with a high exposure. UK markets are great for that as they have strong liquidity.

I stopped doing that after a couple of times when my house lost power in the middle of the night and I was left with markets all over the place with limited ability to adjust prices or get out of the market. Those times were too stressful so I reverted to just laying those under my prices and limiting the exposure to what I was happy losing on those markets. Then I don't have to worry if the power goes off.

The marketplace varies. Some layers come in and seem desperate to take bets, so set the high price. I think patience is a key ingredient to using betfair. 

Your right about Patience, something which sometimes i am not good at. Most weekend punters wont have a programme, but what is your best advice for somebody new to betfair. To be honest, i use iphone to bet on all sites, and probably bet more on sport than aus racing, mainly because i follow certain sports, and find plenty of time to either cash out, bet or lay or whatever, i find that great, and I go ok. 

But racing returns overall not good,   I did try wagertool which improved my betting, but still at a loss. 

Thanks

 

[curious]

Good discussion here guys. Some really useful thoughts. I think what Mardi means by patience, Newmarket, is that better pricing and more value can emerge over time. Hence why he rechecks prices several times as the event gets closer. The key point I take from this thread is that the critical ingredient is accurate assessment of chance (at least more accurate than the market), whether you are backing or laying. Then finding suitable pricing to make all bets value at your acceptable margin (or more).

[mardigras]

curious has hit the nail on the head. The key point is exactly as he wrote - and getting there can be different for each person.

Simple advice on betfair, spend time watching the markets before betting. Some price changes especially around longer odds runners can shift massively in the last minute or so - usually outward.

I haven't used any of the betfair betting tools. I thought they were generally targeted around traders, but maybe useful for standard backing/laying as well.

On your iphone with the way you have it set, can you see market depth on betfair? And market %? Useful info when using betfair to gauge the competitiveness of the market overall.

And refer to other betting sites for odds comparison or use an odds checker site. Factor in commission charges on betfair when comparing prices.

[mardigras]

And if you are wanting see to market pressure onbtfair, then this example can highlight that. Doesn't mean they win, even though this one did.

A horse that has high pressure on it for backing comparatively given market liquidity/price. It is very unusual for a horse at double figures to have the highest exposure on a race. Below shows the market at start time for Sunshine Coast R7. Aberlady was trading at 18.50 at the 15 minute mark. Reduced every minute from the 7 minute mark with continued pressure on its price. barryb might suggest that someone else has done the assessment or has inside knowledge. I can't claim to have been rewarded for this as I laid the horse as I believed it was under the odds. With a horse like this, by the time it was at 12s, the real advantage has likely been lost. 

#	Runner	Back Odds	Amt Available	Lay Odds	Amt Available	Traded	Last Trade	Total Exposure	Effective Bookie  Position
8	Aberlady	$12.00	$280.95	$13.00	$529.36	$9,507.06	$12.00	$57,042.36	-$17,790.89
3	Iron Craft	$4.20	$69.76	$4.30	$108.34	$27,083.79	$4.30	$56,875.96	-$17,624.48
10	Patriotic Rose	$5.50	$675.96	$5.70	$338.82	$13,508.29	$5.60	$37,147.80	$2,103.68
1	Capeos	$4.00	$9.50	$4.10	$370.04	$17,517.00	$4.00	$35,034.00	$4,217.48
9	All Apologies	$6.80	$127.68	$7.00	$39.87	$7,109.11	$7.00	$24,170.97	$15,080.50
5	Shinnecock	$16.00	$78.31	$17.50	$13.98	$2,498.72	$16.50	$19,989.76	$19,261.72
11	Sheezinajam	$140.00	$9.33	$150.00	$13.16	$244.35	$140.00	$17,104.50	$22,146.98
7	Greynomad	$38.00	$21.11	$40.00	$12.57	$578.32	$38.00	$10,988.08	$28,263.40
6	Barney	$46.00	$15.59	$60.00	$16.50	$456.31	$46.00	$10,495.13	$28,756.35
						$78,502.95
						Effective Market $
						$39,251.48

 

Total exposure is also understated for the winner - as that is based on traded at current odds. Not what it actually traded at. It was easily the biggest liability in the race.

 

Edited December 2, 2018 by mardigras

[FeelTheFear]

Popcorn ready...waiting...5..4..3..2..1

[VC!]

Couple more Qs

Do you study Video and Trials

The other which I think you answered do you trade

[mardigras]

FTF is a movie starting soon?

VC, no trading for me.

And no trials. But it's all info, so why not. Each to their own. 

[FeelTheFear]

Just now, mardigras said:

FTF is a movie starting soon?

VC, no trading for me.

And no trials. But it's all info, so why not. Each to their own. 

no but a special guest (emphasis on special) will no doubt appear soon

[pete]

Great thread guys. Really informative. Can it stay that way? ?

[FeelTheFear]

1 minute ago, pete said:

Great thread guys. Really informative. Can it stay that way? ?

we will do our best

[pete]

Oh I have no doubts about you guys.

I was just agreeing with you. When the Village Idiot turns up you just know he's going to head straight in here.

 

[Newmarket]

This will make you laff, 

About 3 or 4 years back, i opened betfair acc. Only account i had opened apart from nz tab. Googled a bit of info laying/ betting, but so many people had so many ideas, so this is what i did. 

Certain aus races, i would place $5 back bet on one runner, and would place lay bet on one runner, to profit $5. It was over xmas time, and i had plenty of time. First 2 weeks i made money each day, i was amazed that i had come up with this basic betting system. 

About time i increase my stake?. Only made money one day out of 6 days betting, my bank was gone, very funny. 

I have recently started looking at laying again, hopefully using boost bet at beteasy, laying off same horse betfair. 

What i need, is an app that calculates what i need to place on lay bet? Know of any or best way i can do this quickly. 

 

 

[VC!]

2 hours ago, mardigras said:

 

VC, no trading for me.

And no trials. But it's all info, so why not. Each to their own. 

The Big Bash (cricket) is about to start and is one of the easier trading opportunities around the T20 match goes for about 3.5 hours nearly every match 50 million is matched that equates to 200,000 per ball or 1.2 million per over you can back a team at 7 and the very next ball lay them at 5

I think it is worth doing video I watch it once at normal speed then once at +6

At +6 you notice more how less often horses are making up ground probably a good tool for someone starting out to learn how tracks play

[Thomass]

On 1/12/2018 at 10:42 PM, mardigras said:

Given this is a racing site. And some may think I'm overly tough on Thomass. I'm happy to have a proper debate on the topic of these things without the need to get all aggressive. 

I'm quite happy to try and explain why some approaches are flawed etc. (Which has nothing to do with my approach, just that they are flawed).

I don't have the answers. But what I do have is what are NOT the answers. 

What I can provide is insight from a punter that has been successful for decades at punting. Not just bullshit after the races crap. (not that it should be necessary, but I can prove this). And we are in an awesome position of having the likes of barryb, ftf, curious and others with real punting ability that they have so far been happy to share. 

I also don't claim to have the answers. Just take a look at the selections others put up. Brilliant. We don't always agree. It isn't able to be done that way. 

If this site wants people like barryb to offer insights, then how can that be a bad thing. If you backed all the selections barryb has put up on this site, I expect you'd be doing pretty well.

But what I'd say to any punter that wants to succeed at punting. You must bet to value AND you MUST know what value is. That is talking from a winning mindset - not all punters want to win or even really care about winning. Newmarket made a good point about that. Each to their own etc. 

But if it is about winning, then you should understand value. If you just want to have a bet and enjoy some fun, that is great. I'm not even trying to change that.

But if you come in with suggestions that things like blinkers on or down in grade relate to chance assessment, then you will have to back that up with some evidence - surely.

If someone asks me a sane question, I'm more than happy to answer it the best I can  - or others will hopefully. This isn't about who is better, this is about sharing info. We're a small group of people that ultimately won't affect the marketplace. So why not?

Thomass calls this stuff arrogant. Which is like going to the doctor and he/she diagnoses your problem and you call them arrogant. They are supposedly professionals in their field.

Well f me..."hard on Thomass"...I should have kicked sand in your face wayyy sooner

This is the thread I started on the other site...

..to help poor struggling Punters...who find it hard to solve the riddle...to get help

And all you've done is admit you "don't know the answers"

...then started a 'STAKING' thread...on how to STAKE YOUR LOSERS

where so much information already exists on GOOGLE ffs

This thread should surely be about how to SELECT WINNERS....

Bazz's way appears to be to follow others money...could be worse 

Then you stimulate your PC Bot....after inserting a whole lot of times...

...which are patently wrong...due to your Magooness

In not being able to recognise simple Mathmatical calculations...

...or observing unlucky runs...which you FAIL to compensate for

i.e. YOUR TIMES ARE WRONG

Moi's way is so easy and simple...a simpleton from Levin and a Bogan from the Tron could understand it...

Its about using SUPERIOR FORM...sometimes Black Type...in inferior class...

And simply...each class almost consistently rates higher...as a neddy progresses

How easy is that?

Alors...a neddy Racing well in the North....is superior to Southern form...

The same as HK and City Arstralian form beats us...almost every time 

Its that simple...but you don't get it...

Admiting that you don't...means you're half way to recovery...well done

[Newmarket]

Mmmm, oh well. I suppose now thommas has arrived, best i leave this thread

[Thomass]

6 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Mmmm, oh well. I suppose now thommas has arrived, best i leave this thread

Wtf would you do that?

If grass soils moi's name...I've got right of reply

Carry on Mcduff...harden the f up

Helping Punters is about FINDING WINNERS....

Staking plans are everywhere...

If you want advice on laying...onya...Im not stopping you...

PUNTING 101 is about selecting winners first...then staking...that's the easy part

[FeelTheFear]

22 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Mmmm, oh well. I suppose now thommas has arrived, best i leave this thread

Yep,  knew that was coming. Good while it lasted

 

[Chief Stipe]

Just put him on block/hide and no one reply directly!  Good thread so far.  Mardi Gras contribution +110 Thomaas so far -5.