Punting 1.01

[Chief Stipe]

Just now, Thomass said:

Ignore him mate

He's a freaken obcessive compulsive maniac without a SOH trying to tell Punters when they can fart...

...and I always do it in his general direction

 

Any specials today at Counties?

[mardigras]

18 minutes ago, Portfolio said:

Trialed it on races i bet on, as stated, i said my  life does not revolve around laptops and stats. 

Maybe you need to read my first post, never did i say i bet on every metro meeting, never did i say i bet every weekend. 

I didn't say you did. But you DID say try this. How are we supposed to try it if we need to know to be selective on which weekends and which metro meetings.

Are you now saying try this if you can work out my secret around what weekends it works and what meetings it works on?

Starting to sound like the Thomass blue print. 

The point is, it's illogical for such an approach to work and to suggest to others on here they could do the same, is equally illogical. 

[Thomass]

48 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Any specials today at Counties?

I don't do Tips...but in case you missed out on the PUNTING MASTERCLASS...

...and the BLUE PRINT thread for prosperity and riches...

Just follow the SUPERIOR FORM back to INFERIOR thingy

Like the Company you should keep...Only in reverse

 

[Chief Stipe]

17 minutes ago, Thomass said:

I don't do Tips...but in case you missed out on the PUNTING MASTERCLASS...

...and the BLUE PRINT thread for prosperity and riches...

Just follow the SUPERIOR FORM back to INFERIOR thingy

Like the Company you should keep...Only in reverse

 

Can you give us some examples of the Superior back to Inferior for today please?

Providing a forum for your views costs a bit to run.

 

[FeelTheFear]

25 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Can you give us some examples of the Superior back to Inferior for today please?

Providing a forum for your views costs a bit to run.

 

that's like asking a cockroach to wipe it's feet as it scurries across your fresh garden salad, no chance

[Portfolio]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

I didn't say you did. But you DID say try this. How are we supposed to try it if we need to know to be selective on which weekends and which metro meetings.

Are you now saying try this if you can work out my secret around what weekends it works and what meetings it works on?

Starting to sound like the Thomass blue print. 

The point is, it's illogical for such an approach to work and to suggest to others on here they could do the same, is equally illogical. 

1,  You didnt exclude front runners from the equation? 

2, Odds could differ from your betfair closing to my 10 mins before. 

3, You took info from your computer for all metro meetings, i did say i didnt bet every week, 

 

So the info you posted bloody useless isnt it? 

Anyway, i know what you are like, one reason i have stopped posting on the 2 threads  you are controlling. Yes, you have good views, but keep an open mind.

[FeelTheFear]

1,  You didnt exclude front runners from the equation? 

2, Odds could differ from your betfair closing to my 10 mins before. 

3, You took info from your computer for all metro meetings, i did say i didnt bet every week, 

Therein lies the problem.

1: How do I know a horse will lead today?

2: Exactly therefore we will have a different result, could be a losing one for me

3: What if I bet every week? 

Good luck on what you do if it wins for you. 

[Thomass]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

Can you give us some examples of the Superior back to Inferior for today please?

Providing a forum for your views costs a bit to run.

 

You should be paying moi full time for the classic click baiter I am!!!

And you have the bare ass'd cheek to WANT MORE!

Oliver!

Edited December 4, 2018 by Thomass

[mardigras]

41 minutes ago, Portfolio said:

1,  You didnt exclude front runners from the equation? 

2, Odds could differ from your betfair closing to my 10 mins before. 

3, You took info from your computer for all metro meetings, i did say i didnt bet every week, 

 

So the info you posted bloody useless isnt it? 

Anyway, i know what you are like, one reason i have stopped posting on the 2 threads  you are controlling. Yes, you have good views, but keep an open mind.

1. I acknowledged that.

2. I acknowledged that.

3. Not relevant to trying your idea out which you said we could as the ideas on here were more complex than necessary.

The info I posted is as useful as your idea is for people to try. Useless. I quite agree. But I think people that might want to consider your idea may like to know what the results are like if you vary the dates, and points 1 and 2 from your method. Which is starting to make your approach no longer simple after all if you have to know what those dates are, and they don't.

My mind is open. I'm not controlling anything. I simply responded to your post. It seems you didn't like my response. I would have thought my response could help you. Clearly not.

[barryb]

On 4/12/2018 at 9:14 AM, hesi said:

Would you guys who are up to speed(Mardi, Barry, FTF, VC, Curious, Thomas), to illustrate the system you use, be prepared to independently have a go at say one race this Sat, maybe the Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie.

It is not an exercise in proving one person is right or wrong but an illustration.

 

Missed this Hesi, probably not as it's the sort of race I normally wont touch from a betting perspective.

If I have time I will.

[Newmarket]

On 5/12/2018 at 7:36 AM, mardigras said:

Fun is fine. But based on the data I have, it will be a loser long term (which is actually logical). At starting divs (not 10 minutes prior), it was a big loser this year for the 43 weeks of the year I have data for. (excluding the 'noted front runner' criteria of which that is subjective, so I can't use that).

I have 223 horses meeting that criteria for 105 winners, losing $1028 to a $100 lay (so exposure laying), excluding commission from winning bets. Happy to provide the list of runners/prices. 

And laying them all to win $100 loses as well.

Hey mardigras,

Obviously you have all the info at the click of a mouse, maybe you may be able to help.

I mainly use betfair for aus punting, have tried wagertool with mixed success. 

If you were giving a bit of advice to punters just starting out with betfair, and obviously not set up or as dedicated like yourself, what would that advice be, maybe a few simple things that punters sitting down in front of the tv on a sat arvo could think about. Ta

[FeelTheFear]

18 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Hey mardigras,

Obviously you have all the info at the click of a mouse, maybe you may be able to help.

I mainly use betfair for aus punting, have tried wagertool with mixed success. 

If you were giving a bit of advice to punters just starting out with betfair, and obviously not set up or as dedicated like yourself, what would that advice be, maybe a few simple things that punters sitting down in front of the tv on a sat arvo could think about. Ta

Number 1, don't take any notice of Mr T. 

Number 2, don't take any notice of Mr T. 

[mardigras]

7 hours ago, Newmarket said:

Hey mardigras,

Obviously you have all the info at the click of a mouse, maybe you may be able to help.

I mainly use betfair for aus punting, have tried wagertool with mixed success. 

If you were giving a bit of advice to punters just starting out with betfair, and obviously not set up or as dedicated like yourself, what would that advice be, maybe a few simple things that punters sitting down in front of the tv on a sat arvo could think about. Ta

Hi Newmarket, just saw this post. Happy to have a think about that and see what I can contribute. 

[Newmarket]

47 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Hi Newmarket, just saw this post. Happy to have a think about that and see what I can contribute. 

Good stuff. Ta

[curious]

Because I thought it was interesting, and some have indicated that they are having a go at framing their own markets, I'm going to reactivate this thread with a few questions for the gurus on here and hopefully the thread can stay constructively on track.

Barryb and Mardi in particular, and anyone else with expertise and knowledge in this area,

1. When assessing a race or runner, how many variables do you consider?

2. How much time on average do you spend assessing a single race or maybe 8 race meeting say (excluding any reassessment due to change of track condition, scratchings etc.)?

3. I know that Mardi uses apps for simulations to get his estimate of chance and maybe to assess his expected times. So, my question is what proportion of the assessment is software based and how much is done manually?

4. Mardi, I think you said somewhere that closing BF prices are a pretty good approximation of an accurate market. I'm also pretty sure I read a study (I think done in Hong Kong) showing that the correlation between closing tote prices and results was only about 35-40%. My question is, on events where there is sufficient volume for it to apply, how much better is a similar correlation with BF closing prices?

[barryb]

23 minutes ago, curious said:

Because I thought it was interesting, and some have indicated that they are having a go at framing their own markets, I'm going to reactivate this thread with a few questions for the gurus on here and hopefully the thread can stay constructively on track.

Barryb and Mardi in particular, and anyone else with expertise and knowledge in this area,

1. When assessing a race or runner, how many variables do you consider?

Over 30 computer assessed, but 9 Key ones that are manually critiqued to finalise. Time, Settling Position, Predicted pace of the race are huge for me.

2. How much time on average do you spend assessing a single race or maybe 8 race meeting say (excluding any reassessment due to change of track condition, scratchings etc.)?

For todays races (3 Meetings) about 3 hrs Monday/4hrs Xmas Day/3hrs today including over 1 hr putting the bets on. I can dismiss a race in under a min if assessment shows nothing, I then manually verify.

3. I know that Mardi uses apps for simulations to get his estimate of chance and maybe to assess his expected times. So, my question is what proportion of the assessment is software based and how much is done manually?

I would say 50% each, software speeds up the time and does basic research for you, I can then spend the timeon the few key areas and refining things.

4. Mardi, I think you said somewhere that closing BF prices are a pretty good approximation of an accurate market. I'm also pretty sure I read a study (I think done in Hong Kong) showing that the correlation between closing tote prices and results was only about 35-40%. My question is, on events where there is sufficient volume for it to apply, how much better is a similar correlation with BF closing prices?

BF is the most accurate market tool you can find, however on NZ racing the volume is insufficient. NZ is an immature racing market and therefore provides far more significant opportunites than most other regions. Although the run of outs can be horrendous, which is the undoing of many. I can have Draw Downs in excess of 50 frequently. so at $10 bets you would need a bank of $1500 to be sure of surviving.

 

[FeelTheFear]

I'm still trying to nail down times assessment. Do I use the best time run over distance on track conditions for career/last year/2 years? Do I use the average? Do I take the top 2 best times averaged? I have a database of all runs in NZ the past 3 years and a database of all winners since 2012 including Australian Group winners. I want to assess based upon times run at various courses but not enough data, even over this time, to really get a good time based assessment.

I find that when I assess a race, my ratings can be close to each other thereby giving a market of a few $7-$10 horses (top rated) with little variation. I presume I have to add other factors to get a greater separation. I would assume I am doing it wrong. I just divide each rating in to the sum of the field ratings then get a market based upon %. This seems to be the hardest area for many to achieve. 

I have spreadsheets that can do a certain amount of calculating once I input the data. I would be interested in what data is the most important. Best times, career performance, average prize money earned, course or distance? 

Thought I would throw all that up not only for myself but perhaps many others may have the same/similar questions. Not looking for anyone to give away any secrets, I am willing to do the work with guidance.

[barryb]

FTF

Average prize Money is something I look at, days since last run, distance stats, course is a key one for me. There are great speed maps now, use them to help you predict the tempo, in running position and tempo are 2 of the most important things I consider.

Be very careful though as confirmation bias is massive with many punters, look at the crap that Thomass puts out, its absolutely full of it.

[FeelTheFear]

31 minutes ago, barryb said:

FTF

Average prize Money is something I look at, days since last run, distance stats, course is a key one for me. There are great speed maps now, use them to help you predict the tempo, in running position and tempo are 2 of the most important things I consider.

Be very careful though as confirmation bias is massive with many punters, look at the crap that Thomass puts out, its absolutely full of it.

Cheers for that mate, I have looked at all those but tempo and in running position are two I am trying to get to grips with. 

Days since last run is an interesting one. Longer than 1600m I think a recent run, say last 30 days or so is important as is fresh up form for shorter distances (population stat). However, if I take it to each individual horse, then how it performs with that last days run is more important I think. A horse may have won fresh up over 2000m say or with a 47 day break. Is this the way you go mate?

I have used average prize money for the last 12 months but is it better to take the total career earnings? I'm not sure how far back I should go to make an effective assessment. 

Thanks for the reply, it is helping me to refine what I do

[FeelTheFear]

Be very careful though as confirmation bias is massive with many punters

I read eveything I can, I always find that bullshit will help reinforce what I know doesn't work and other ideas may trigger a response to study further. I am always looking for that gem amongst the rubbish. It all gets me thinking, gives me ideas.

[barryb]

17 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

Days since last run is an interesting one. Longer than 1600m I think a recent run, say last 30 days or so is important as is fresh up form for shorter distances (population stat). However, if I take it to each individual horse, then how it performs with that last days run is more important I think. A horse may have won fresh up over 2000m say or with a 47 day break. Is this the way you go mate?

Outside of starting with-in 21 days the SR % drops away significantly.

I have used average prize money for the last 12 months but is it better to take the total career earnings? I'm not sure how far back I should go to make an effective assessment. 

APM full history.

Thanks for the reply, it is helping me to refine what I do

look at each runners last 10 starts to determine the in running position. use fast medium & Slow as your tempos and variants of, ie: Medium/Fast etc. a field of 10 with 7 horses who normally are mid/back is going to see a slow tempo, etc.

Requires a bit of work, but will create an edge of what others have & thats the key, more knowledge over your fellow punter.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2018 by barryb

[FeelTheFear]

1 minute ago, barryb said:

 

thanks, that is what I like. Info I can now take away and look at/adapt. Much appreciated. 

[curious]

Outside of starting with-in 21 days the SR % drops away significantly.

 

That's interesting and a bit surprising. You can probably have a look at that in your data set FTF. I assume that's for NZ? Maybe Oz as well?  I don't find that in the US, though there is a drop-off for less than 15 days. UK Mardi?

[FeelTheFear]

34 minutes ago, curious said:

Outside of starting with-in 21 days the SR % drops away significantly.

 

That's interesting and a bit surprising. You can probably have a look at that in your data set FTF. I assume that's for NZ? Maybe Oz as well?  I don't find that in the US, though there is a drop-off for less than 15 days. UK Mardi?

I don't have that data in my database though I have often read that most winners come from the 14 days or less factor, even 21 days being positive. It is a population stat but one that makes sense. At the very least, it favours the likelyhood of a horse holding it's fitness or indeed improving it. Found this... 

Nevertheless, a rule is a rule, and there is an overall logic in not backing any horse that has not performed in, say, four to 14 days. You might lower that to three days or raise it to 21 (which seems to be the maximum in most people's opinion), but once you've made your decision it makes things a lot simpler. I dug out an old book by the great Clif Cary because I knew he had some statistics on this subject and the winners panned out like this:

days since last start	percentage total
within 7	30.6 30 ' 6
8-14	36.7 67.3
15-21	18.1 85.4
22-28	5.7 91.1

So it looks, from this survey which covered thousands of horses, as if the big gap is after a fortnight, with less than one third of winners having a break of longer than this. Naturally, this is not the end of the story, and there are numerous other factors to consider, but it is a factor that seems to hold up, whatever survey you look at. It's as consistent as the one that proves favourites win between 30 and 35 races in every 100.

[curious]

Thanks FTF. As a p.s., I meant to add that I wouldn't use raw strike rate to assess this (or anything for that matter). I think you need to use strike rate cf. expected strike rate. Mardi and I spent weeks trying to convince the powers that be at NZTR that you can't do this when we did some work for them assessing the impact of the changes in the handicap system a few years ago. Starting prices were not accurate enough to use for expected chance, though we found that actual handicap ratings were a reasonable proxy for that even though they were skewed in favour of females and higher rated horses. Problem was we didn't have that option for maiden races.

I'll come back to you on your time related questions when I get a chance.