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Bit Of A Yarn

Assessing Horses


hesi

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3 minutes ago, hesi said:

If the new trainer has a better strike rate, would you not factor that in?

No. Because I think strike rate (raw) is useless information unless it is calculated adjusted for the ability and chance of the runners it is based on. Even then, I don't think you can apply a population statistic like that to an individual runner. That's what Thommo does.

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10 minutes ago, hesi said:

If the new trainer has a better strike rate, would you not factor that in?

Would 10 winners out of 30 be better than 4 winners out of 100? 

What if the trainer with 10 winners ran 30 horses at evens (or with an expected chance of 50%)

And the trainer with 4 winners ran 100 horses at 100-1 (or with an expected chance of 1%).

And how do you adjust the chance of an individual horse based on that anyway? Or the same for a jockey. Supposedly better jockeys will get a higher proportion of supposedly better chances. Which should lead to a self fulfilling proposition.

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23 minutes ago, hesi said:

If the new trainer has a better strike rate, would you not factor that in?

And I'm not saying you can't if you think you can make an adjustment for the trainer/jockey for the horse you are assessing, then that is your call. I'm saying I don't adjust because I wouldn't know how to. 

I'd be interested to hear how you would go about doing that.

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42 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Curious & mardi, 

Do you factor in track conditions? 

Yep, likely little difference between a 3 and a 5 in my view, but as per the Bonecrusher, my prices shifted a reasonable amount from an 8 to a 4. 

And definitely distance, as for me that is a major component of my confidence level around my assessment of the horse's ability.

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Track conditions are  very minor consideration for me.

Wet tracks esp are incredibly variable and difficult to assess, I just assume that if the day starts heavy and the horse is in then it handles it.

Of more importance is the track itself, right and left handed esp. If it gets back in the running then Te Awamutu is not the place to invest on it. 

I place my most significant weighting on in running position and race tempo.

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11 minutes ago, barryb said:

Track conditions are  very minor consideration for me.

Wet tracks esp are incredibly variable and difficult to assess, I just assume that if the day starts heavy and the horse is in then it handles it.

Good points barry. I don't change my assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance, but I do change my confidence in that assessment, which ultimately can effect my chance %.

Left and right handed is also something I use to adjust confidence. Things like that where the ability of the horse has not been shown as yet under the conditions of the race.

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34 minutes ago, mardigras said:

And I'm not saying you can't if you think you can make an adjustment for the trainer/jockey for the horse you are assessing, then that is your call. I'm saying I don't adjust because I wouldn't know how to. 

I'd be interested to hear how you would go about doing that.

I've tried to do this before, but even though I can adjust overall strike rate according to chance, say using starting price, I then find that trainer A has a higher strike rate say up to a mile and trainer B has a higher one at a mile and over and then how you apply that to an individual runner's chance in a specific event, I can't figure out.

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13 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Good points barry. I don't change my assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance, but I do change my confidence in that assessment, which ultimately can effect my chance %.

Left and right handed is also something I use to adjust confidence. Things like that where the ability of the horse has not been shown as yet under the conditions of the race.

I also adjust for confidence but not the chance assessment. I adjust the minimum price to chance ratio that I will bet on. So for reasonable confidence I might bet at 120% value, at lower confidence I might require 130%.

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3 hours ago, mardigras said:

Good points barry. I don't change my assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance, but I do change my confidence in that assessment, which ultimately can effect my chance %.

Left and right handed is also something I use to adjust confidence. Things like that where the ability of the horse has not been shown as yet under the conditions of the race.

But you did...

You had the winner on the 5th line for time assessed...

Then the 4th...with my updated accurate track conditions

So do you change your assessment for track conditions or did your bot explode?

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3 minutes ago, Thomass said:

But you did...

You had the winner on the 5th line for time assessed...

Then the 4th...with my updated accurate track conditions

So do you change your assessment for track conditions or did your bot explode?

Wrong again. My assessment was the same. The chances changed, exactly as per my post. Twit. Not every horse will change in confidence when track conditions change. Some will be greater confidence, some will be less. Simple.

The time is the midpoint of the range of time associated with that assessment and that confidence.

Edited by mardigras
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3 hours ago, barryb said:

Track conditions are  very minor consideration for me.

Wet tracks esp are incredibly variable and difficult to assess, I just assume that if the day starts heavy and the horse is in then it handles it.

Of more importance is the track itself, right and left handed esp. If it gets back in the running then Te Awamutu is not the place to invest on it. 

I place my most significant weighting on in running position and race tempo.

Wow...

To a certain extent I'd agree that a trainer's not going to start a neddy in winter if it's not going to handle the 'wet'...

...but not much

He could be planning for future racing and needing a run...

The major in winter is the loose v holding...some simply can't handle glue

...which is why they used to have a HOLDING description...

...and why I've been campaigning to have that description inserted back into the NZ lexicon...

Saying track conditions is "very minor" is simply WACKO bazz 

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22 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Wow...

To a certain extent I'd agree that a trainer's not going to start a neddy in winter if it's not going to handle the 'wet'...

...but not much

He could be planning for future racing and needing a run...

The major in winter is the loose v holding...some simply can't handle glue

...which is why they used to have a HOLDING description...

...and why I've been campaigning to have that description inserted back into the NZ lexicon...

Saying track conditions is "very minor" is simply WACKO bazz 

ok then SFB pleae explain to us all how you factor in a heavy10?

Let me guess, you wont have a farking clue, like every other mad arse approach you have.

LOONEY.

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23 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Wow...

To a certain extent I'd agree that a trainer's not going to start a neddy in winter if it's not going to handle the 'wet'...

...but not much

He could be planning for future racing and needing a run...

 

Yep he could well be Looney, but unless you are the trainer or owner, how the fark do you know?. 

You don't, so you have to factor in that it handles it.

 

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59 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Wrong again. My assessment was the same. The chances changed, exactly as per my post. Twit. Not every horse will change in confidence when track conditions change. Some will be greater confidence, some will be less. Simple.

The time is the midpoint of the range of time associated with that assessment and that confidence.

Hilarious stuff once again

This is very simple...you're right

You had HYDROS running 0.09 faster...on a S8

On the morning...on a D5...you had HYDROS running 0.1 SLOWER

Next you'll be telling us neddys can read the odds and run slower because of it...

You're not dealing us the SEMANTICS hand are you?

No wonder you said you "haven't got the answers"

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18 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Hilarious stuff once again

This is very simple...you're right

You had HYDROS running 0.09 faster...on a S8

On the morning...on a D5...you had HYDROS running 0.1 SLOWER

Next you'll be telling us neddys can read the odds and run slower because of it...

You're not dealing us the SEMANTICS hand are you?

No wonder you said you "haven't got the answers"

You seem intent in ruining every thread because you're too thick to understand. 

What part of time range did you not understand?

If I have a horse running a time of say 71.5 to 72.5. But my confidence level is 40%. Then I believe it will run on the higher side of that time range compared to a horse with the same time range that I have a 70% confidence in. 

So since I model it and I only know how to model it on a normal distribution, I shift the position within that timeframe based on the confidence. 

The result is that the midpoint for the time is different between the two horses. The one with less confidence with be at a higher time, the one with greater confidence will be at a lower time.

Same assessment of horse ability, two horses. Different final assessed times. All due to confidence around my assessment and the conditions the race will be run under. 

Edited by mardigras
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37 minutes ago, mardigras said:

You seem intent in ruining every thread because you're too thick to understand. 

What part of time range did you not understand?

If I have a horse running a time of say 71.5 to 72.5. But my confidence level is 40%. Then I believe it will run on the higher side of that time range compared to a horse with the same time range that I have a 70% confidence in. 

So since I model it and I only know how to model it on a normal distribution, I shift the position within that timeframe based on the confidence. 

The result is that the midpoint for the time is different between the two horses. The one with less confidence with be at a higher time, the one with greater confidence will be at a lower time.

Same assessment of horse ability, two horses. Different final assessed times. All due to confidence around my assessment and the conditions the race will be run under. 

Total SEMANTICS

The only thing that changed between the assessed S8 and D5 posts you put up

...was the Track condition...which you said

"you don't assess"

Then you changed HYDROS time assessment by 0.19secs

So your confidence dived...when the Track Improved

Nothing could be clearer...

...if you're confused about this...then your ideas on other topics must be seriously questioned

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Thomass said:

..was the Track condition...which you said

"you don't assess"

Correct. I don't assessment track condition when assessing the horse's ability.

24 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Then you changed HYDROS time assessment by 0.19secs

So your confidence dived...when the Track Improved

Nothing could be clearer...

Sure did, compared to other horses.

 

25 minutes ago, Thomass said:

 

...if you're confused about this...then your ideas on other topics must be seriously questioned

I'm not confused. I only assess the horse's ability ignoring track condition.

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45 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Correct. I don't assessment track condition when assessing the horse's ability.

Sure did, compared to other horses.

 

I'm not confused. I only assess the horse's ability ignoring track condition.

This is totally bizarre and proves beyond doubt you're peddling SNAKE OIL

Its there for all to see...

Due to the changed track condition you assessed a difference of 0.19 secs between those 2 horses...

Youre using SEMANTICS as per your raisin de tear....sultanas

To make out you're the BIG SHOT when it comes to this...

But plain and simple...you've been caught out

If it's not due to change of track...what is it

Your carbuncle?

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If you continue with your stupidity, I will just ignore you.

My post stated I change chance based on track conditions. Chance is ALWAYS based on the time I assess the horse is likely to run. Since I model all of the horse's on time to get chance. Clear yet?

The time range is based on the horse's ability ignoring track condition. The final estimated time fits in that time range and moves based on the confidence associated with the horse and the current race conditions.

If a range for a horse is 71 to 72, then the time I assess will always be within 71 to 72 on that track condition, no matter how confident I am that the track condition is most suited to the horse. If I am 80% confident, the time may be 71.2. If I'm 20% confident, the time will still be between 71 and 72 and be closer to 72.

The ability displayed by the horse sets the range, not the track conditions. They make a minor adjustment based on confidence of data 

You're just so thick, it is hard to fathom.

 

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7 hours ago, mardigras said:

 I don't change my assessment of the horse for track conditions or distance, but I do change my confidence in that assessment, which ultimately can effect my chance %.

Try and read this. No change in assessment of horse. Change in chance assessment. Pretty clear unless you're Thomass.

Edited by mardigras
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