Wingman Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago After Aljay won the G3 NZ cup 2 years ago he went up 5 rating points from 78 to 83 yet despite running last in the 2023 Wellington cup he stayed unchanged at 83. Subsequently via excellent placing by his trainer he won three small open handicaps, two were 7 runner fields each with a stake of 35K, the other a 8 runner field for 50K. For each of those 3 wins he was rerated at 4 points but given the low value and quality my reckoning they should have been 2 points, therefore 6 points over-rated. So onto Perfect Scenario who ran 5th in the L 3yo Karaka Millions and for whatever weird reason got bumped up 6 rating points. He then ran 2nd last in the Derby and received no reduction. For mine, at that point over-rated 7 points. Handicapping gets out of whack when unreasonable penalties are applied earlier in a horses career. Perfect Scenario topped the TAB mile on Wednesday and only three other horses were above the minimum. Aljay headed the NZ Cup field today and there were only two other runners above the minimum, Their severe rating totally distorting the spread of weights. The Livamol run at Te Rapa last month had the two top rated horses, El Vencedor and One Bold Cat both on a rating of 103. Are we really to believe that Perfect Scenario on a rating of 107 is a better horse than those two or that Aljay on a rating of 102 is their equal? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wingman Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago Correction, Aljay ran last in the 2023 Trentham Stakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tragedy Beat Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Its all a bit of a joke. Look at the reason why Kopua was scratched today. Severe rerating and then you arent allowed an apprentice on to boot! The one remarkable thing is that Aljay won the NZ Cup in a time of 3.22 two years ago. Then runs 6th(?) in 3.25 last year with more weight, and 8th today (5.7L off them) in 3.27 carrying a massive 60kg in "testing ground". Basically the poor horse is still turning up with the same performance but getting in a situation where it cant win because of the handicapper. Why bother turning up? (unless you are there for the "also ran stakes"). No wonder Roger James took his stayer to Newcastle today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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